The new bunch of high-MP bodies have me wondering where the market's headed. I'm a landscape (many of them closer-up than the traditional landscape, ranging right into the macro range) shooter and photography teacher and would love to have a Phase One or equivalent, but just can't afford it. I'm shooting the 1DsII now, which is great in many ways, but has some notable weaknesses (many of them ergonomic). When I bought it several years ago, there was nothing close on the market - now there are several options. My Canon glass (plus the body) is worth enough that I should be able to finance a transition to whatever I want (within reason - I am obviously nowhere near a Phase system).
What I'm looking for:
Better ergonomics (I'm a good-sized guy, but I have one hand). The 1DsII is a big, heavy camera, right at the limit of what I'll carry around. There are also several control placements I don't like, foremost among them the clunky ISO selection, the focusing point selection and the push-and-hold menus and image review. None of these are impossible, but all are annoying. Strictly ergonomically, give me a modern Nikon over anything else I've ever touched! Shame they're all 12mp, when I want modestly MORE resolution than I have, not less.
Even better low-ISO image quality. I never go above ISO 400, but I'd sure love to do even better than the 1DsII (which is already very good) at 100-400. I'm not willing to take a downgrade, and an upgrade would be nice. I want to at least keep the resolution I have, hopefully adding some, and I'd love to add dynamic range (again, I won't take a loss, and I'd prefer a gain).
Better glass in the modest focal length ranges. The Canon wide and mid-range lenses (L glass) I have are decent, but they don't strike me as special. The Zeiss lenses on the old Hassy I used to shoot before I gave up on all the scanning were special, as is the Nikon 105 VR Macro. The one Canon lens I really don't like as much as its competitors is the 100 Macro - the only one they make.
What I know so far:
The new Sony Alpha 900 looks awfully attractive - I sure can't fault the lensmaker (Carl Zeiss) they chose for their high end glass, and the ergonomics look pretty good. I want to see some test shots that show the dynamic range - it's clear that it has a ton of resolution, and what isn't clear is how the DR holds up in RAW files (I simply haven't seen a test shot that stretches the DR). I also want to make sure that it doesn't have noise issues at modest ISOs (I don't care that it doesn't do great JPEGs - my dream system is a Phase that doesn't do ANY JPEGs)... Besides the image quality questions, I also don't know what I think of Sony lenses in the ranges where the glass isn't Zeiss - I'd end up with 2 Zeiss lenses, but a Sony macro and a Sony 70-400. I also love the body-integral image stabilization, because I sometimes shoot handheld especially when I'm out with a class and squeezing my own shots in among helping students. I often get surprisingly nice stuff out of shots I took to show a student something.
The 5DmkII is out of the question, strictly because of my disability. The depth of field preview (which I use all the time) is on the wrong side of the body, and I can't reach it at all. I originally thought that the live view might reduce the need for this, but THAT is another left-side control (looking from the back) that I can't reach.
The 1DsIII is an option - I'd have to toss in some money to trade up to a used IDsIII body, but maybe not that much... I'm sure I could get $2000++ for my 1DsII, and I've heard of nice IIIs selling used for $4000. I'd gain some image quality, significant ergonomics and lose over half a pound.
The wild card is what Nikon's up to?!? A D700x would be very close to my dream reasonable camera. If they just used a full-frame version of the D300 sensor, it would be 27mp with superb image quality up to ISO 800, with a fully usable 1600 as well. It would fit my hand like any modern Nikon.
Perhaps even more exciting than the possibility of a D700x is the "Nikon MX" rumor. There are twitterings of a 40 mp (?!?) Nikon (perhaps using electronic viewfinding) that uses a sensor significantly larger than 35mm (and perhaps square, which I've always loved, to boot). If it were a mirrorless body, it could be in the weight range of a D700 easily - the Mamiya 7 is exactly the same weight as a D700, and this is much smaller than 6x7. The rumors I've heard focus on a "giant rangefinder" body like the Mamiya 6 and 7, with a sensor somewhere in the range of 48x48 mm, and a resolution between 40 and 50 mp. I'm guessing that its primary composition device would be a 4 to 5 inch version of the D3/D300/D700 screen with resolution scaled up to match - it's always running Live View because a giant rangefinder would have no mirror. I'm well aware that this would be expensive, but I'm thinking 1Ds level expensive rather than Phase level expensive (I just can't see Nikon making a $30,000 camera). If it's real, it's a game-changer for what I do. I hope the ergonomics would be something I can use. The versatility of this monster appeals to me - it's perfectly usable handheld, but if I stick it on a tripod with a tilt/shift lens on the front and throw my focusing cloth over my head, it becomes a view camera (that LCD is the size of a ground glass)! I would assume that the low-ISO image quality would at least approach 4x5 film, because everything else in high-MP medium format does (the P45+ is a 4x5 competitor of the first order).
If Nikon is going to make either of these moves(D700x or giant live-view rangefinder), I'll happily wait for them (I'd prefer Nikon over Sony on a very similar camera - although those Zeiss lenses are tempting)... If it's the big rangefinder, I'll find the money somehow (assuming it's not $20,000)! If not, though, I want to move soon before my 1DsII loses too much value... What would you do in my situation?
Is it the Sony with the Zeiss glass?
The 1DsIII for better ergonomics and a modest uprate in image quality?
Or wait to see if Mr. Nikon changes the game?
How long to wait for Nikon? I'm certainly not going to do anything before Photokina opens, because even a mockup of the MX (if it is anything like the rumors) with a "wait for me, coming this spring" sign on it makes the decision for me. If nothing shows up next week, though, I have to decide whether to wait for November (or possibly March) losing value on my present body, only to see whether Nikon's offering makes a difference. If they let me know what might be coming, I can decide if I'm interested and move to a present option if not.
-dan