But like so much new tech, we should expect MF to eventually become much cheaper.
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I doubt it, and the price trend is just one reason.
The two main reasons why some new tech gets "much cheaper" are (1) downsizing of semiconductor devices and (2) improved economies of scale through far larger production and sales volume as a new market sector grows, but only until the market matures and growth levels out at about the overall growth rate of the economy.
The first is irrelevant to any given sensor format, where instead size is a major factor in the persistently far high cost of larger formats.
The second is also working against medium format, and indeed is working against the larger format in every "small vs large" comparison over the range from compacts to mainstream DSLR formats to 35mm to medium format.
Reading the reactions to the new 50MP and 60M announcements from MF users, it seems that the great majority care little about further MP increases, and instead are far more interested in improvements in areas where 35mm systems are way ahead of MF. Thus I see strong signs that future improvements in 35mm format options will take even more sales away from MF than has already happened, forcing markups and prices higher on DMF. The next step in this could be Nikon and Sony SLRs with 25MP (4056x6096) sensors offering far better noise performance than any MF back, even the big pixel 22MP (4080 x 5440) ones.
For example,
- Total DMF sales are about 500/month (by Michael Reichmann's estimate of 6,000/yr).
- Nikon currently sells 10,000/month of the D3 and its sensor, and the D700 will surely increase this sensor's sales volume.
- Canon's best selling (EF-S) DSLR models are at production levels of 100,000/month or more, maybe as high as 200,000/mo planned for the 450D.
Price per MP costs are indeed going down, largely because pixel sizes are going down and so sensor area per MP is going down: see item (1) above. That is a fact pushing many photographers to get the image detail (MP count) that they desire from ever smaller sensors and shorter focal lengths. Maybe the 40MP 33x44mm MF sensors made possible by the new 6 micron pixel spacing will sell relatively well, especially if with micro-lenses to double their sensitivity (ISO speed.)