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Author Topic: P65+  (Read 125810 times)

Dustbak

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« Reply #260 on: July 23, 2008, 02:49:47 am »

I think with these upgrade numbers the market for MFDB will only become smaller. I noticed someone mentioning the P65+ will only be bought by wealthy amateurs. It seems that will become the case.

I cannot commercially justify the upgrade price towards the Hasselblad 50 (taking into consideration there also would be a CFII50). I would towards the MS versions but just the added pixels and sensor size?

Maybe James is right, you can always ask. This does implicate there is no sound reasoning to set those prices other than how much clients are willing to put up with... euhh.... down I meant

The biggest compition for the 50/60MP backs probably will be their own 40MP backs, the manufacturers have just eliminated the 2nd hand market for 40MP's with their discounts on the 30/28MP backs and the upgrade path towards 50/60MP is less than favourable so it seems.

I predict many 40MP back owners will hold on to their backs. I wonder how many new-comers there will be.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2008, 06:54:51 am by Dustbak »
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Quentin

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« Reply #261 on: July 23, 2008, 05:31:44 am »

With prices like these, I can see the major 35mm manufacturers wetting their lips in anticipation of an increased market share coming their way as they up their own pixel counts.  I was initially enthusiastic about the P65+ but reality hit home after speaking to a few pro photographer friends, one doing high end work for major UK entities, who simply laughed at the idea they would pay that kind of money for a back.   Phase have to sell to more than a group of wealthy dilettantes to survive.

Quentin
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Wim van Velzen

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« Reply #262 on: July 23, 2008, 08:40:38 am »

They might sell more 45+ backs, because of their 65+ prices. They look rather affordable in comparison!

I know some wedding photographers who never sell their most expensive package and as soon as they would, they´d think of a more expensive, über-luxurious package. Just to show people they made a rational choice by not getting the most expensive one...  
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Dinarius

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« Reply #263 on: July 23, 2008, 08:52:28 am »

Quote
With prices like these, I can see the major 35mm manufacturers wetting their lips in anticipation of an increased market share coming their way as they up their own pixel counts. 
Quentin
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=210122\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Except that I think that Canon are at, or near, the top of their game with 21Mp on a 35mm sized chip. Light gathering, dynamic range, shadow detail etc..are all very much in play now.

Secondly, I think that these are two very different markets at the business end. There is very little overlap. No Pro who *needs* 35mm sized cameras (sports, press, wedding(?) etc..) wants to lug around a MFDB. Similarly, anyone working for an ad agency expecting MFDB has to have the right gear.

My tuppence worth.....

D.
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Quentin

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« Reply #264 on: July 23, 2008, 09:25:06 am »

Quote
Except that I think that Canon are at, or near, the top of their game with 21Mp on a 35mm sized chip. Light gathering, dynamic range, shadow detail etc..are all very much in play now.

My tuppence worth.....

D.
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I think we'll get to 40mp in 35mm, probably pushed by Sony who have to make an impact to get noticed.  I heard rumours - possibly wrong, as with all rumours - that Sony already has plans to get to 40mp over the next couple of years.  They will have their 24mp camera out by the end of the year, as will Nikon.  We should be able to get D300 type noise performance from a 40mp 35mm size chip with a little more development, maybe even less.  Who, after all, would have predicted the sensational low D3 noise performance just a couple of years back?

I'm not against high pixel counts with MFDB, but the pricing needs adjustment otherwise the number of backs they sell will reduce.  After all, how many photographers need 60.5mp?  If they are happy the existing kit, who other than a handful of enthusiasts and the like will bother to upgrade?  Is the market at these prices big enough to survive during the present economic downturn?

Quentin
« Last Edit: July 23, 2008, 09:29:02 am by Quentin »
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Dinarius

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« Reply #265 on: July 23, 2008, 09:34:32 am »

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I'm not against high pixel counts with MFDB, but the pricing needs adjustment otherwise the number of backs they sell will reduce.  After all, how many photographers need 60.5mp?  If they are happy the existing kit, who other than a handful of enthusiasts and the like will bother to upgrade? 
Quentin
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I totally agree.

I have a 1DsMk3 and a Hasselblad 39Mp Multi-Shot. The Canon is wonderful to use, the Hassie is extraordinary. I don't need more pixels. I need better software. There is also the issue of depth of field with big sensors. Not really an issue if you're shooting landscape and you want shed loads of pixels, but very relevant in a studio.

D.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2008, 09:34:57 am by Dinarius »
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narikin

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« Reply #266 on: July 23, 2008, 10:55:55 am »

agree Phase have somewhat shot themselves in the foot on this one.

they've made their 45-series the sweet spot, so the uptake on the new back is going to be far lower, at least in the worlds biggest market - the US. Considering their investment in creating this sensor, thats doesn't seem a great move.

I was all gung-ho about upgrading, and prepared to spend maybe $8-9k, but now will hang on to P45+. There's much better things to spend $17k on.

European prices P45+ > P65+
1 yr 10,000 Euros = $15,700
3 yr 11,000 Euros = $17,300

almost identical to US.
obviously they've set the prices in Euros, and it falls where it may in whatever currency.
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narikin

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« Reply #267 on: July 23, 2008, 12:13:36 pm »

"When you purchase a new Phase One Digital Back it eliminates the chance of your equipment becoming obsolete by providing exceptional and affordable Upgrade Paths to the latest models in the future."

ha ha
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Jack Flesher

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« Reply #268 on: July 23, 2008, 02:26:16 pm »

Quote
"When you purchase a new Phase One Digital Back it eliminates the chance of your equipment becoming obsolete by providing exceptional and affordable Upgrade Paths to the latest models in the future."

ha ha
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=210178\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Maybe I'm missing something here...

What are the current prices of the P45+ back new and the P65+ back new?
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Paul2660

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« Reply #269 on: July 23, 2008, 03:15:59 pm »

With Value add warranty 32K-33K P45+

From what I have read so far 42K P65+ with value add


Paul C
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Paul Caldwell
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pss

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« Reply #270 on: July 23, 2008, 03:25:14 pm »

Quote
With prices like these, I can see the major 35mm manufacturers wetting their lips in anticipation of an increased market share coming their way as they up their own pixel counts.  I was initially enthusiastic about the P65+ but reality hit home after speaking to a few pro photographer friends, one doing high end work for major UK entities, who simply laughed at the idea they would pay that kind of money for a back.   Phase have to sell to more than a group of wealthy dilettantes to survive.

Quentin
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the question is how long can canon and nikon afford to sell their cameras cheaper in the us then anywhere else? canon raised the lens prices a couple of % earlier this year but it just seems strange to me (from a consumer standpoint) that the same camera sells for 8000euros in the EU and for 8000dollars in the US....right now canon is "eating" that difference, for how long though?

this is really the same for all non us goods...cars, clothes, speakers, watches.....yes the us still is the largest market in the world but things are changing.....

porsche is taking over VW right now and in the press they are talking about how well VW is doing...mentioned are india, china, ex-ussr countries (ukraine and such) but not the US (and afaik they are doing well here as well).....realy these companies don't HAVE to be big in the US anymore to survive.....

a client of mine in near shutting down because he can no longer make up for the difference in the euro-dollar exchange....he can't just raise prices, the public would not pay it.....

there is a reason why opec wanted to start trading oil in euros years ago....yes gas is expensive here now, but a BIG part of that is that a barrel of oil is 130?140? dollars, which BTW is 80-90 euros...very near the same price (in euros) it was 5-6 years ago....

the good part is that european companies can produce ads and commercials really cheap in the US right now....they always liked to come to LA and miami and now it is dirt cheap for them to come here....

and the best is of course working for european companies and getting paid in euros:)....
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BJL

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« Reply #271 on: July 23, 2008, 03:43:18 pm »

The main cost issue with the P65+ is its 26% larger sensor size compared to 48x36mm, not pixel count.

Prices about 30% higher than 48x36mm format are no worse than I would expect given that
- The 26% increase in sensor area leads to more than a 26% increases in production cost (due to higher defect rates and possibly needing to stitch more pieces), and
- this will combine with other factors to reduce sales volume, and thus force unit markups to be higher.

Such is the cost of wanting full frame 645 digital, not of 60MP.

Those for whom the price is too high should perhaps seek or hope for the alternative of a somewhat smaller format, with a good quality lens system well adapted to that format, and I suspect that many current MF users will. Whether the most successful alternative will be 48x36mm, 44x33mm, 36x24mm or even smaller, I do not know. Lens systems of sufficient quality and flexibility to match what 645 systems offer do not seem to exist for any smaller format, so far. But maybe I am selling the best of the Nikon or Canon 35mm format lens systems short on quality?
« Last Edit: July 23, 2008, 05:26:22 pm by BJL »
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Dave Carter

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« Reply #272 on: July 23, 2008, 03:51:51 pm »

I totally agree that the price seems hard to justify depending on what business you are in.
For me, shooting landscapes, I will continue to do some stitching when required.  I just finished a picture that started out as 16 overlapped shots from a Leaf 75.  I suspect the quality would not be improved much by going to the larger chip.  But, we will have to wait and see.  Once you are stitching, whether you stitch 9 or 16 or ---, it is about the same.
It will be interesting to see a side by side picture when they come out.
Just my 2 cents.
I think I will set this out until I here about better final picture quality...

Dave
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TMARK

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« Reply #273 on: July 23, 2008, 04:57:41 pm »

The exchange rate issue should not be too big a deal.  Large exporters hedge against currency swings such that any Euro appreciation is partially offset by by the hedge programs.  

Who knows, maybe Phase doesn't do this.  I know Canon and Nikon do, and most every company anywhere on the planet that sells internationally does the same.

After owning an MFDB for about 6 months, I think I'm going to get a 1ds3. I shot a print collateral job for a vintage glasses boutique on the Lower East Side.  Everything from cards to in store displays.  I rented a 1ds3 as backup to my P30+/afd, ended up shooting half the job with it.  Its just easy, convenient, the color is MUCH better than the ds2, files are plenty big, AF is AWESOME and the VF is, well, like a throwback to Nikon F4 and F5 days, meaning its bright and big, which makes the experience very comfortable.  The camera doesn't fight you.

What gives me pause about the MFDB industry is that the cost to upgrade to the P65+ from a P30+ is (presumably) more than a 5 Series BMW, or a year of private school tuition, or a Red 1 with plenty of accessories.  This is the direction the MFDB insustry is headed, when the stone masons are already chisiling the commercial still photo industry's epiteth on a large granite tombstone?

Its more than Euro to Dollar FX rates. Its a lack of vision, or if there is a vision, a lack of communication of that vision.

I think I'll drop $7k on a 1ds3 and figure out how to mount my P30 to my RZ.
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Rob C

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« Reply #274 on: July 23, 2008, 05:00:50 pm »

Don´t for a moment think it´s all wine and roses in Euroland!

In the last few months we have lost 17% in value importing UK pounds to Spain; we had a new set of wheels on order - getting the figures from the bank here (Spain) and making the exchange and bank %age calculations over that weekend resulted in cancellation ; Mr Ford lost another sale.

Car sales in Spain have fallen by about a third, month on month, and the housing industry is on its knees. The second largest Spanish building company collapsed last week. Banks are becoming less safe than the underside of your mattress. Everywhere you hear complaints about the high €; the Sunday Times this week told the tale of a village in France which has started to accept the French Franc again - they have a further year or so where they can be exchanged for Euros - and the locals there were far from happy with the € either: they claimed to have lost their identity through it. Too true.

The trouble with the € is that it is a bastard currency dreamed up by politicians seeking the ultimate power trip: to be Mr PRESIDENT within a new United States of Europe, something which flew in the face of all the individual nationalities but was fudged, time after time, by most politicos denying their people a referendum on such matters.  The people of Ireland, allowed such a vote recently, said NO!; so what now? So now, Mr Bloody France (Mr Carla Bruni), is pressuring them again to vote again UNTIL THEY GET IT RIGHT!

That´s why your dollar sucks, why the quid isn´t worth squat. Oil prices? Our masters (UK) make 70% out of taxes on each sale. Not a fixed price per litre, oh no, a percentage, so they can milk you for suckers as the oil producers and, worse, the futures speculators who don´t even own a pump, play games with your future and mine.

Don´t blame Phase, don´t blame any manufacturer - they are all hostage to the madness of politicians on ego trips.

And it isn´t anything new. I can remember during the rule of our old friend Harold Wilson, making estimates for the production of company calendars. Every quotation had to be protected by a line saying that final price on delivery would depend on rate of inflation at that time. Imagine trying to sell that package to a client in February for delivery in December! I had to.

Rob C

Justinr

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« Reply #275 on: July 23, 2008, 05:44:27 pm »

Quote
The people of Ireland, allowed such a vote recently, said NO!; so what now? So now, Mr Bloody France (Mr Carla Bruni), is pressuring them again to vote again UNTIL THEY GET IT RIGHT!

Ahh Rob, we meet again.

Nothing to do with photography but I agree entirely with your comments upon the ego trips of politicos. BTW, Monsieur  S. of France now denies ever saying such a thing as Ireland must vote again, good lord perish the thought that he would do such a thing, non non non! However, it is becoming increasingly clear that a 'solution' will be found probably by some perversion of democracy in getting the Dail to vote it through without another  referendum on the grounds that it's all far too complicated for us simple souls to understand so we best let our TD's (MP's) do the thinking for us. The Lisbon treaty is a frightening thing, powered not just by the ego's of politicians but the by the big money of global corporations, especially arms manufacturers. Did you realise that it will allow, even encourage, Europe to take 'pre-emptive military action' to safeguard Europe's interests? Pure Bush speak at it's worse and that's before it demands a greater role for private companies in things like health and education.

Justin.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2008, 06:33:30 pm by Justinr »
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Dustbak

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« Reply #276 on: July 24, 2008, 02:49:18 am »

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Ahh Rob, we meet again.

Nothing to do with photography but I agree entirely with your comments upon the ego trips of politicos. BTW, Monsieur  S. of France now denies ever saying such a thing as Ireland must vote again, good lord perish the thought that he would do such a thing, non non non! However, it is becoming increasingly clear that a 'solution' will be found probably by some perversion of democracy in getting the Dail to vote it through without another  referendum on the grounds that it's all far too complicated for us simple souls to understand so we best let our TD's (MP's) do the thinking for us. The Lisbon treaty is a frightening thing, powered not just by the ego's of politicians but the by the big money of global corporations, especially arms manufacturers. Did you realise that it will allow, even encourage, Europe to take 'pre-emptive military action' to safeguard Europe's interests? Pure Bush speak at it's worse and that's before it demands a greater role for private companies in things like health and education.

Justin.
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Over here the government just past the treaty without second referendum because according to them the treaty was really different now. No longer a constitution but a treaty. The name has changed so it is different and can be passed without the people voting for it.

The world seems to be turning into a really frightening place where we are all turned into 'ant-workers' at best.
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James R Russell

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« Reply #277 on: July 24, 2008, 11:23:40 am »

Quote
I agree that it is a large delta for even a P45+ owner to make the jump.  Too big for me for sure, but clearly there is the wealthier segment of digital imaging pros that will no doubt be early adopters -------- Prolly more than one or two from this very site...

,
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I actually chuckle at the terms upgrade and "value added".   I can't tell you how much I'd love to see those terms disappear from my world.

I would like to see more emphasis on the front end of the equipment than the back end.


JR
« Last Edit: July 24, 2008, 12:19:31 pm by James R Russell »
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hubell

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« Reply #278 on: July 24, 2008, 02:31:40 pm »

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I actually chuckle at the terms upgrade and "value added".   I can't tell you how much I'd love to see those terms disappear from my world.

I would like to see more emphasis on the front end of the equipment than the back end.
JR
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=210430\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

I don't know why you edit out some of your best material.

James R Russell

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« Reply #279 on: July 24, 2008, 06:04:59 pm »

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I don't know why you edit out some of your best material.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=210471\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Most of what I write is when I'm either estimating, invoicing or uploading images.

As much as I love the photograph I really don't take the digital stuff too seriously and try to keep a sense of humor about it.  

Sometimes it isn't taken that way, hence I edit myself.

Anyway, what I wrote and edited was since medium format designations really have nothing to do with megapixels or even variations of a theme, I suggested they name them by the costs.



JR
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