Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[TechTalk]

Iran will follow a similar course as North Korea.

As there are details of the breakdown in the agreement that are disagreed on by multiple parties to it, I've modified the original reply to James removing a good deal of detail, reducing it to the essentials. Still using the same timeline.

In any event, the agreement with North Korea was only a few pages long. The Iran deal was quite lengthy and detailed. Iran, like North Korea, was abiding by the deal including robust inspections.

Since you seem to enjoy making predictions like the above, or "millions of people will never see their second doses", and countless others, with an Iran free from any agreement how long do you think it would take for a horrific war to break out.

[faberryman]

...last year after Trump went on several lengthy rants about his displeasure with the low water pressure provided by a number of household staples like showers and dishwashers.

I am laying odds that Trump couldn't identify a dishwasher if his life depended on it.

[faberryman]

Iran will follow a similar course as North Korea.

Of all the possibilities, that is certainly one of them. Then there is the butterfly effect to consider. As Jeff Goldblum, one of the world's top scientists, explains:

“It simply deals with unpredictability in complex systems. The shorthand is ‘the butterfly effect'. A butterfly can flap its wings in Peking, and in Central Park, you get rain instead of sunshine.”

[Alan Klein]

Yep. And as proof that such agreements and inspections don't work, pointing to North Korea. The problem with that argument is that the agreement from 1994 to 2002 did work. North Korea abided by the agreement which prevented them from producing plutonium at their reactor facilities and there were regular inspections that insured that was the case.

A confrontation in 2002 over U.S. intelligence assertions that North Korea was working on building centrifuge facilities, as another way to enrich uranium into plutonium, caused a breakdown in the agreement. North Korea started in earnest to produce plutonium again shortly thereafter and tested its first nuclear device in 2006.

It isn't the history as Alan understands it; but it's the short true version of the story.

You're revised post does not say that North Korea cheated.  It wasn't just an assertion made by the US.  In any case, Iran's going to cheat.  How can you verify their compliance if they refuse to allow inspectors to certain nuclear sites?  Additionally, they're a threat to the Middle East and our allies there.  Keeping them weak is to our advantage.

October 2002 – January 2003
Pyongyang Exits the NPT
Pyongyang admits to running a secret uranium-enrichment program to power nuclear weapons, a violation of the Agreed Framework, the NPT, and agreements between North and South Korea. By December, the country says it will reactivate its nuclear plant in Yongbyon. The following month, North Korea withdraws from the NPT after disrupting IAEA monitoring equipment and expelling inspectors.
https://www.cfr.org/timeline/north-korean-nuclear-negotiations

[JoeKitchen]

False yet again. The agreement specifies that access to military sites can be requested if there is credible evidence that something disallowed by the treaty is going on.

My dad told me that I should never try to teach math to a fencepost. I should have listened.

You really need to actually stay on top of things Peter.  We requested and they denied. 

Iran rejects U.S. demand for U.N. visit to military sites

Maybe instead of teaching me math, you should learn how to use Google. 

[Alan Klein]

I am laying odds that Trump couldn't identify a dishwasher if his life depended on it.

Trump has 500 businesses most of which have to do with the building of commercial and residential buildings.  The idea he's ignorant of the money he spends on appliances and knowledge of their type, quality, functions, and cost,  just shows how little you know about Trump. 

[JoeKitchen]

- Decisions on whether, how, and to what degree schools are open for in person learning are made at the state and local level. There are several factors taken into consideration by those that have to make those decisions. The opinions and decisions will vary depending on the individuals that make them. It will come as no surprise that there will be differences and disagreements among the various parties involved and that reopenings will vary substantially from place to place.

- There is a pandemic in progress that is highly contagious. In order to mitigate spread and safely open, schools need money to make changes in classrooms, buildings, and instruction.

- Biden wants schools to reopen as quickly as possible and selected a Secretary of Education that actually made that happen in Connecticut despite a good deal of opposition to it. Biden is actively working to get schools the financial resources they need to reopen and wants them to reopen.

- The CDC is not the President, the Department of Education, or the Congress. They make scientific recommendations not policy. They offer guidelines not rules nor the financial resources to implement them. Those will take action from Congress and the Department of Education.

- I do not see, or expect to see, the kind of intense political interference in agencies and departments responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating information and offering recommendations that we have seen for the past four years. Biden isn't Trump and in need of constant praise of his greatness and genius for his every passing thought the way that his impulsive, sociopathic, malignant narcissistic predecessor did and won't require that everyone around him agree with him or each other. Whether or not you like the direction, the hand on the wheel is considerably more emotionally stable now. Biden can accept and navigate disagreement in a way impossible for Trump.

- Forgive me if I don't consider you my go to person for scientific or medical advice or opinions. There are people who have devoted their lives to research and study in these fields to whom I'm more inclined to listen.

You are really not paying attention then. 

Two weeks the head of the CDC issued a statement in which she said schools are safe to reopen.  Jen Psaki was asked about this the day after and she said the director was speaking in her own person position (even though it was a CDC press conference).  This past Friday at 5 PM, the CDC changed the reopening policies for schools in which they admitted that took advice from teachers on what the policies would be. 

This is blatant political manipulation of the CDC. 

[faberryman]

You really need to actually stay on top of things Peter.  We requested and they denied. 

Iran rejects U.S. demand for U.N. visit to military sites

Maybe instead of teaching me math, you should learn how to use Google.

I googled and couldn't find any search results that told me that by pulling out of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran let UN inspectors inspect its military sites, so I am thinking maybe that whole can't inspect the military sites thing is a red herring.

[James Clark]

You really need to actually stay on top of things Peter.  We requested and they denied. 

Iran rejects U.S. demand for U.N. visit to military sites

Maybe instead of teaching me math, you should learn how to use Google.

And maybe you should learn to go more than one layer deep. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-inspections/u-s-pressure-or-not-u-n-nuclear-watchdog-sees-no-need-to-check-iran-military-sites-idUSKCN1BB1JC

The deal also allows the IAEA to request access to facilities other than the nuclear installations Iran has already declared if it has concerns about banned materials or activities there. But it must present a basis for those concerns.

Those terms are widely understood by officials from the IAEA and member states to mean there must be credible information that arouses suspicion, and IAEA officials have made clear they will not take it at face value.

“We have to be able to vet this information,” a second IAEA official said, asking not to be identified because inspections are sensitive and the agency rarely discusses them publicly.

Despite Haley’s public comments, she neither asked the IAEA to visit specific sites nor offered new intelligence on any site, officials who attended her meetings said. A U.S. State Department spokesman confirmed this.

[TechTalk]

You really need to actually stay on top of things Peter.  We requested and they denied. 

Iran rejects U.S. demand for U.N. visit to military sites

You really need to read past the headline.

[JoeKitchen]

I googled and couldn't find any search results that told me that by pulling out of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran let UN inspectors inspect its military sites, so bI am thinking maybe that whole can't inspect the military sites thing is a red herring.

This article was published in 2017.  We did not pull out until 2018.  So I fail to see the point of your post. 

If you are implying that we should expect to be allowed to inspect after we ended it, I would agree that would make no sense.  But this was from when were still in the agreement and they still did not let us perform an inspection. 

It was a shit deal based solely on the same appeasement policy Chamberlain used for a Peace for Our Time.

[Alan Klein]

You are really not paying attention then. 

Two weeks the head of the CDC issued a statement in which she said schools are safe to reopen.  Jen Psaki was asked about this the day after and she said the director was speaking in her own person position (even though it was a CDC press conference).  This past Friday at 5 PM, the CDC changed the reopening policies for schools in which they admitted that took advice from teachers on what the policies would be. 

This is blatant political manipulation of the CDC. 

Well, why would the teachers' unions contribute to Biden's campaign and support him if he wasn't helpful in return? That's not being friendly. I mean, what's fair is fair.

[digitaldog]

You really need to read past the headline.

Ignoring facts or even opinion (based on demonstrable facts), ignore lists (Alan, Craig) is all they have to work with. And now, they will have to come up with a similar tactic on Fox:

Anti-Trump group launches Fox News ad buy
The Republican Accountability Project, which previously vowed to spend a total of $50 million to back GOP lawmakers who impeached Trump as well as defeat his loyal supporters in office, will air the TV spots on Fox News.
The Republican Accountability Project, which previously vowed to spend a total of $50 million to back GOP lawmakers who impeached Trump as well as defeat his loyal supporters in office, will air the TV spots on Fox News. The organization, which first shared its plans with POLITICO, is also funding billboards to rally behind the legislators who found Trump guilty of inciting rioters to attack the U.S. Capitol.

Probably a waste of money; many or these viewers unreality bubble is impenetrable.

[Robert Roaldi]

Iran will follow a similar course as North Korea.

You know that the USA's problem with Iran stems from sticking their nose in there way back when it was none of their business. And I don't know why you think Iran is your enemy but that Saudi Arabia isn't, given the nationalities of the 9/11 airplane hijackers. Somehow I don't remember how that pivot happened.

[Alan Klein]

And maybe you should learn to go more than one layer deep. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-inspections/u-s-pressure-or-not-u-n-nuclear-watchdog-sees-no-need-to-check-iran-military-sites-idUSKCN1BB1JC

How can you suspect and show anything is going on there before making an inspection?  The whole rule is preposterous. It's a Catch 22.

I remember when they first made the deal. I jumped out of my chair when I read these terms. Obama and the Europeans made a joke of a deal.  How stupid can you be?  That's why Trump pulled out.  There was no way to verify anything unless you're Superman and have X-ray vision. Besides, treaties must be affirmed by the Senate.  Obama never even brought it to them for approval because he knew they never would approve the deal.  You can bet the Iranians won't make that mistake again. I'm sure they'll ask for a Senate-approved treaty fearing Trump may become president in 2024 and cancel the deal again.   

On the other hand, I think the deal ends in 2015 or so anyway.  So they might renew the deal to get the sanctions taken off and then go on their merry way under Biden for four years.  That's what I would do if I was them.  They're going to roll Biden as China will and the NATO allies will as well.   Fecklessness.

[faberryman]

This article was published in 2017.  We did not pull out until 2018.  So I fail to see the point of your post.

My point was that if with or without an agreement, the UN inspectors can't inspect the military bases, using that as an excuse to get out of the agreement doesn't make any sense. It is a red herring. With that red herring out of the way, the argument seems to boil down to if we don't have an agreement, then they can't cheat on it, which, while true, doesn't sound very compelling to me. Perhaps there are other reasons to get out of the agreement which you have not offered up for discussion. Saying that the agreement is "a shit deal" isn't very persuasive. Although it may not be applicable in this case, often in international relations, particularly with respect to negotiations with adversaries, the perfect is the enemy of the good. Unless you are the conquering army, you are not going to get everything you want. I haven’t heard any compelling reasons why we are better off without the deal.

[Alan Klein]

You know that the USA's problem with Iran stems from sticking their nose in there way back when it was none of their business. And I don't know why you think Iran is your enemy but that Saudi Arabia isn't, given the nationalities of the 9/11 airplane hijackers. Somehow I don't remember how that pivot happened.

Frankly, a plague on all their houses.  We keep getting drawn into Middle East intrigue and adventures.  We should have let the Brits and French handle it.  They've had more practice at it.  Our CIA does a better job spying on our own president than knowing what's going on in the Middle East.  Look what happened with Iraq's WMD's and the Shah?   

[faberryman]

On the other hand, I think the deal ends in 2015 or so anyway.  So they might renew the deal to get the sanctions taken off and then go on their merry way under Biden for four years.  That's what I would do if I was them.  They're going to roll Biden as China will and the NATO allies will as well.   Fecklessness.

How many envelopes does Ed McMahon have in that stack anyway?

[digitaldog]

Our CIA does a better job spying on our own president than knowing what's going on in the Middle East.

Ah yes, spygate conspiracy theory, wrong agency too:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spygate_(conspiracy_theory)

Spygate is a conspiracy theory initiated by President Donald Trump in May 2018 that the Obama administration had placed a spy in his 2016 presidential campaign for political purposes.[1][2][3] Trump's first accusation was in a May 17, 2018, tweet[4] in which he quoted Andrew C. McCarthy, who had just appeared on Fox & Friends repeating assertions from his May 12 article for National Review.[5]

[James Clark]

How can you suspect and show anything is going on there before making an inspection?  The whole rule is preposterous. It's a Catch 22.

I remember when they first made the deal. I jumped out of my chair when I read these terms. Obama and the Europeans made a joke of a deal.  How stupid can you be?  That's why Trump pulled out.  There was no way to verify anything unless you're Superman and have X-ray vision.

Or a satellite with IR capability, or high-res imaging that can look at materials going on and out or....

Again, do you believe that a full team of the world's leading experts on monitoring and diplomacy just dashed this out on a napkin and didn't think about these things? That they worked up this deal, signed it, and then realized, "D'OH!!!  We forgot about the *military bases*. Nuts. No way to tell what's going in or out of those things.  Oh well."

This is sort of like the nonsense voter fraud stuff where people think you can just wheel in 100,000 pieces of paper and introduce them into the system.  It doesn't work that way.  You can't just build a nuclear centrifuge under a bigass tent and get away with it.