Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

With well over 99.94% certainty. He's making stuff up and doesn't understand how complex the data and reporting is...

As comparisons, the table shows the case fatality rates for other disease outbreaks. The CFR of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were high: 10% and 34%, respectively.22

The US seasonal flu has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1% to 0.2% – lower than the current CFR for COVID-19.23[/i]

What makes you think I do not understand the data and make stuff up?

But let's first clear up the potential confusion with your less-than-careful cut & paste from the article;

The way you posted it above, it looks like the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) for COVID is 19.23 and that compares with, say, flu at 0.1% to 0.2%. Terrible difference.

But "19" in the "19.23" refers to COVID-19... and even worse, the "23" refers to the particular End Note.

Neither number has anything to do with the actual CFR for the USA of 2.1%

Now, what did I claim in the several posts earlier in this thread? I said that our (as members of overall population) chances of getting infected are 1-2%. and if infected (and confirmed), your chances to die are also 1-2% (and guess what, what the paper you linked states the USA CFR is 2.1% - I was pretty darn close, no?) So, the combined chance of dying is indeed a number I made up. I made it up of numbers and formulas involved.

If you multiply 1% x 1% you get 0.01% (that would be for countries with a lower CFR - for instance, Austria)

If you multiply 2% x 2% you get 0.04%

So the survival chances, as members of overall population in various countries, are from 99.99% to 99.96%

And currently, the crude mortality rate for the USA is 0.08% (that is, 260,000 dead divided by 330 million population). If by the end of the year we reach 300,000 dead, the rate will go up to 0.09%

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... The recent side trip down Cuban cold war propaganda was fun, btw. The American obsession with Cuba never ceases to amaze me. It's not 1962 anymore, guys, the world has changed a lot. Try to catch up. The third world isn't the third world anymore either...

Cut that condescending crap, will you?

The items under discussion related to Cuba are quite fresh, not from 1962. Cuba isn't in 1962 either. It is worse today. It looked better in 1962, because buildings had additional 50-60 years to crumble. I was there twice, in 2017 and 2018.

[digitaldog]

What makes you think I do not understand the data and make stuff up?

The text you write as illustrated below.....

But let's first clear up the potential confusion with your less-than-careful cut & paste from the article;

Yes, you're confused.

The way you posted it above, it looks like the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) for COVID is 19.23 and that compares with, say, flu at 0.1% to 0.2%. Terrible difference.

It's what was pasted indeed. I'm sorry you find the facts a terrible difference.

Neither number has anything to do with the actual CFR for the USA of 2.1%

What's the USA got to do with it? You wrote a metric and it was utterly undefined, this is what you made up, exactly:

The alternative is certainly not death. With 99.94% certainty.

That's what you wrote. That is what got called out.
Now try moving the goalposts again:

Now, what did I claim in the several posts earlier in this thread? I said that our (as members of overall population) chances of getting infected are 1-2%. and if infected (and confirmed), your chances to die are also 1-2% (and guess what, what the paper you linked states the USA CFR is 2.1% - I was pretty darn close, no?) So, the combined chance of dying is indeed a number I made up. I made it up of numbers and formulas involved.

I pasted exactly what you wrote.

So the survival chances, as members of overall population in various countries, are from 99.99% to 99.96%

Except when they don't in various countries and never specifically mentioned which you never did. What you wrote was copied and pasted. The actual CFR for the USA is 2.1%

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... What's the USA got to do with it?...

Maybe because the quote you copied (incorrectly) specifically mentions the USA?

[digitaldog]

Maybe because the quote you copied (incorrectly) specifically mentions the USA?

Nice try, YOUR quote didn't mention the USA. Your quote was a regurgitation of a number without any specifics you pulled out of your behind it appears. Nor specifics like “case fatality rate”, vs “crude mortality rate”, vs “infection fatality rate”, which all differ.
Seems new concepts for you other than deliberately being vague with figures you make up, then moving goal posts when it's pointed out to you, you were caught doing so.
The quote I provided OF COURSE has reference and specifics unlike what you post.

[armand]

The graph from the article linked before it's actually helpful (I attached it).

Few points:
- it's very difficult to conduct an actual study in population re mask effectiveness for various reasons, some more obvious than others
- it is well proved that when the conditions are controlled, there is a significant reduction in droplet/aerosol formation and spread
- there is increasing data that the severity of illness is partially associated with the amount of virus that one is exposed to
- masks per se only decrease the risk, they have to be combined with distancing and other measures
- no, you don't have to wear a mask outside in the park (although if you live up north you might start to want to with the colder weather)

So, in conclusion mask will decrease the risk. It will be almost impossible to assess with certainty by how much, but considering how minor of an inconvenience wearing a mask actually is (leaving aside all the prima donnas), what is there to actually argue about? Even if it decreases by 1% (don't twist my words, it's better than that), the lives of others that aren't as fortunate mean so little to you?

PS. don't bother responding to last question, it was rhetorical

[LesPalenik]

But it still is 1962. In Cuba.  Have you seen their cars?  The dictatorship is the same.  Nothing's changed.  Just because it's 2020, doesn't make things in Cuba OK.  Of course, most Americans really don't think about it now that the USSR is gone.  But there are still people there who live under a vile dictatorship without freedom.  We shouldn't forget that.

Their cars actually look pretty good. It's the buildings which are in bad shape.

[LesPalenik]

So face masks might not be effective.

That report was written about influenza which spreads through aerosols, not Covid-19.
What about you? Are you going to throw your mask away?

[LesPalenik]

Apperently, Americans aren;t the only ones who want to be left alone.

Europe at odds over plan to ban Christmas ski holidays amid pandemic
Germany, Italy and France in favour of resort closures but Austria and Switzerland fear economic damage
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/26/austrians-and-swiss-go-off-piste-in-christmas-skiing-covid-row

Unfortunately, it was not possible to ship all the idiots to America. Many remained in the old countries. We have some even in Canada.

The owner of a BBQ restaurant in Etobicoke who was charged with defying lockdown rules has been arrested by Toronto police officers Thursday afternoon.

The mounted unit arrived at the Queen Elizabeth Blvd. location of Adamson Barbecue Thursday morning to a crowd of people surrounding the restaurant. People came to the establishment in support of owner Adam Skelly who vowed to continue reopening his business despite provincial COVID-19 lockdown rules in Toronto and Peel Region that prohibit indoor dining to curb the spread of the virus.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/police-arrest-owner-of-toronto-bbq-restaurant-for-defying-covid-19-lockdown-1.5205328

[digitaldog]

Happy Thanksgiving indeed:

President Trump said on Thursday that he would leave the White House if the electoral college voted for President-elect Joe Biden next month, though he vowed to keep fighting to overturn the election he lost and said he may never concede.
“Certainly I will, and you know that,” he said when asked if he would leave the White House if the electoral college picked Biden.
Of course, he might be lying.

Oh if Alan can learn anything about herd immunity:

The actual number of coronavirus infections in the U.S. reached nearly 53 million at the end of September and could be approaching 100 million now, according to a model developed by government researchers.
The model, created by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, calculated that the true number of infections is about 8 times the reported number, which includes only the cases confirmed by a laboratory test.
Preliminary estimates using the model found that by the end of September, 52.9 million people had been infected, while the number of laboratory-confirmed infections was just 6.9 million, the team reported in the Nov. 25 issue of the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.
"This indicates that approximately 84% of the U.S. population has not yet been infected and thus most of the country remains at risk," the authors wrote.

[digitaldog]

As much as he’d like to see one implemented, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci thinks some kind of national face mask mandate would probably backfire too much to make it a success.
​
Fauci thinks that top-down mandates like that have tended to make people rebel* too much during the coronavirus pandemic.

*Cause you can't fix stupid.

[LesPalenik]

Happy Thanksgiving indeed:

President Trump said on Thursday that he would leave the White House if the electoral college voted for President-elect Joe Biden next month, though he vowed to keep fighting to overturn the election he lost and said he may never concede.
“Certainly I will, and you know that,” he said when asked if he would leave the White House if the electoral college picked Biden.
Of course, he might be lying.

He also repeatedly promised to release his tax returns, but then reneged on his pledge to do so. Trump became the first major-party presidential nominee and president since 1976 to refuse to release his tax returns to the public.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_returns_of_Donald_Trump

[faberryman]

I have no idea why you guys are so obsessed with Cuba.

[Robert Roaldi]

So face masks might not be effective.

Face masks cut disease spread in the lab, but have less impact in the community. We need to know why
The most rigorous, but difficult, way to evaluate the effectiveness of masks is to take a large group of people and ask some to wear masks and others not to, in a so-called controlled trial. We found nine such trials have been carried out for influenza-like illness. Surprisingly, when combined, these trials found only a 1% reduction in influenza-like illness among mask-wearers compared with non-mask-wearers, and a 9% reduction in laboratory-confirmed influenza. These small reductions are not statistically significant, and are most likely due to chance.
https://theconversation.com/face-masks-cut-disease-spread-in-the-lab-but-have-less-impact-in-the-community-we-need-to-know-why-147912

As has been pointed out and discussed on this thread and previous ones, and also discussed just about everywhere it is possible to imagine, there is no one single perfect modality that can defend against this virus 100%. It is well understood and has been for probably decades that many defences have to be layered on top of each other to overcome the weaknesses of any one of them. And so now you're discovered some obscure piece of research, whose immediate real-world relevance may not be apparent, that there may be occasions when masks are not perfect.

Well no sh*t Sherlock.

If you had just presented it as an example of how masks can sometimes fail, as part of a wider discussion in how to use available defences, well that would be kind of ok. But instead you intro the post with "So face masks might not be effective." In what sense is this not trolling?

[Robert Roaldi]

Cut that condescending crap, will you?

The items under discussion related to Cuba are quite fresh, not from 1962. Cuba isn't in 1962 either. It is worse today. It looked better in 1962, because buildings had additional 50-60 years to crumble. I was there twice, in 2017 and 2018.

Oh get over yourself. Can you not recognize hyperbole and exaggeration unless Trump tweets it?

[digitaldog]

If you had just presented it as an example of how masks can sometimes fail, as part of a wider discussion in how to use available defences, well that would be kind of ok. But instead you intro the post with "So face masks might not be effective." In what sense is this not trolling?

Dont even get him started on condoms! 🤔

[Alan Klein]

That report was written about influenza which spreads through aerosols, not Covid-19.
What about you? Are you going to throw your mask away?

My post mentioned influenza twice and the article goes on to say that's what the tests were about.  But there are similarities to Covid as well as mentioned in the article.  I thought it was an interesting study for those interested and it seems that masks work best when combined with other preventive measures like not hanging out in groups for too long.  Although I never suggested anyone should;t wear a mask, Armand complained that I posted it because I was an axe murderer or worse and didn't care about people who died, a knee jerk reaction of people on the left to accuse others of being heartless.  You're either a murderer, heartless or a racist if you don't agree with them.   

[Robert Roaldi]

I have no idea why you guys are so obsessed with Cuba.

I have a pet junk theory of my own about that. I can best express it in religious terms. Many religions (maybe all of them, I'm no expert) believe, or more accurately, choose to believe that only they know the real truth and that other religions are false. (I'll ignore the inherent contradiction that more than one religion can have that belief, never mind that many do.) The trouble arises that if you believe that, you have to, (1) explain why other religions exist, (2) explain why the supreme being doesn't smite them, (3) explain why some of those religions thrive. These things must drive believers truly nuts, deep down. Imagine that you belong to some sect that is repeatedly predicting the end times but the end never comes. How often can you experience that disappointment without blowing a gasket?

Maybe it's like that in politics. There is a pervasive belief that communism was a bad idea. This is certainly justified, the record ain't great, is it? But it must rankle that those remaining communist (in name at least) regimes haven't ground themselves into the dust by now. I mean, Cuba has a high level of literacy, their medical facilities and graduates seem to have a good reputation. People from there seem to feel national pride. These things must seem incongruous to some, how can they be possible? Since it's such an evil place, shouldn't everything be truly awful. Of course real life is never what propaganda says it is. People can't stand contradictions, especially religious or political ones, because unlike important things like food or health or shelter, religion and politics are mostly about ego. That is: I believe "A" therefore "B" must be bad BECAUSE I believe "A". But if "B" happens to do some things right, this froths people up something fierce.

Now, I predict that someone will reply that I think communism is good or that if I think Cuba is such a great place why don't I go live there. I predict this because that's what people are like, I find. So let me answer those critics in advance, you know, just to save us all some time. Communism was and is bad, really bad. I don't think there's any need for me to provide links, do I? And the reason I don't want to move to Cuba is because I like cold weather, I can't imagine living in a warm climate for more than a few days.

I hope that ends the pointless Cuban tangent but we'll see.

Back to the Trump lawsuit watch. Hawaii next, maybe?

(Just having some fun here. Been a long day.)

[Alan Klein]

Unfortunately, it was not possible to ship all the idiots to America. Many remained in the old countries. We have some even in Canada.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/police-arrest-owner-of-toronto-bbq-restaurant-for-defying-covid-19-lockdown-1.5205328

Apparently you didn't ship as many as you think. 

Coronavirus cases rose rapidly after Canada's Thanksgiving gatherings
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuZsBLWncVI

[Alan Klein]

Happy Thanksgiving indeed:

President Trump said on Thursday that he would leave the White House if the electoral college voted for President-elect Joe Biden next month, though he vowed to keep fighting to overturn the election he lost and said he may never concede.
“Certainly I will, and you know that,” he said when asked if he would leave the White House if the electoral college picked Biden.
Of course, he might be lying.

Oh if Alan can learn anything about herd immunity:

The actual number of coronavirus infections in the U.S. reached nearly 53 million at the end of September and could be approaching 100 million now, according to a model developed by government researchers.
The model, created by scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, calculated that the true number of infections is about 8 times the reported number, which includes only the cases confirmed by a laboratory test.
Preliminary estimates using the model found that by the end of September, 52.9 million people had been infected, while the number of laboratory-confirmed infections was just 6.9 million, the team reported in the Nov. 25 issue of the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.
"This indicates that approximately 84% of the U.S. population has not yet been infected and thus most of the country remains at risk," the authors wrote.

Based on your posted data, there will be less vaccinations required to reach herd immunity.  Especially when you consider that by the time the new year rolls around, after group gatherings for Thanksgiving and Christmas and New Years',  and the vaccine is made available, there should be way over 100 million who have already been infected.  It might be a third of the population.  Another third and you have herd immunity according to many as they say that number is 60-70%. Thanks for confirming my points.