Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa

[James Clark]

If only someone were to tell us months ago that if you pay people not to work, they will choose not to work.  It's amazing how that works out. 

Then add to that the fact that we are already seeing fairly steep inflation with admissions from the Fed that they too are concerned about it finally.  Unfortunately, just like the CDC and FDA, the Fed is just as late to the party when it comes to actually trying to fix a bad situation let along prevent it. 

On the bright side, it appears that Manchin has delayed Biden just enough with his agenda for inflation to come and completely kill it.  Hey, if I need to live through a 18% inflationary spiral for a year in order to keep the radical Biden agenda from infection every aspect of my life with government, that is a price I am willing to pay.

But this was typical.  Glad to see you back.

[Robert Roaldi]

Disappointing job numbers come out and the conclusion is that jobless payouts are influencing people to not apply for jobs. I read that report above and another article somewhere and I don't remember reading about employers complaining that they can't find staff. Did I miss it?

If employers are not advertising job openings, then people can't apply for them. Which is it, are there fewer jobs being offered than expected, or are there jobs available and people are refusing to apply for them because of (too) generous payouts?  A priori, either explanation is plausible.

Or maybe people are reluctant to go work at low-paying jobs while risking infection, since you're not at herd immunity yet and they don't trust those employers to keep risks low.

I mean, there might be lots of reasons why things are the way they are.

[Peter McLennan]

Meanwhile, WY is threatening suit agains other states who won't buy their coal.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/07/wyoming-coal-threat-mining-republican-governor#:~:text=A%20new%20state%20law%20has,rather%20than%20burn%20Wyoming's%20coal.

Hilarious. Especially since Wyoming is spectacularly rich in two in-demand natural resources.  Sunshine and wind.

[Alan Klein]

Aw c'mon Alan.  These chumps are still all in on kissing the ass of the guy that thinks it was a stolen election.  They won't even admit Joe Biden is the president the American people elected, and in fact are actively trying to silence anyone that isn't repeating the same bullshit.  Stop pretending that the current Republican Party has any interest in being fair, or even honest, in their duty to run the country in any sort of meaningful way.

I don't recall Democrats admitting Trump was president either.  Didn't they impeach him for colluding with the Russians?  Hillary still doesn't admit she lost, does she?  How many people here on LuLa called him a traitor?  You have a short memory. 

[Alan Klein]

Disappointing job numbers come out and the conclusion is that jobless payouts are influencing people to not apply for jobs. I read that report above and another article somewhere and I don't remember reading about employers complaining that they can't find staff. Did I miss it?

If employers are not advertising job openings, then people can't apply for them. Which is it, are there fewer jobs being offered than expected, or are there jobs available and people are refusing to apply for them because of (too) generous payouts?  A priori, either explanation is plausible.

Or maybe people are reluctant to go work at low-paying jobs while risking infection, since you're not at herd immunity yet and they don't trust those employers to keep risks low.

I mean, there might be lots of reasons why things are the way they are.

Apparently the US Chamber of Commerce has come out against all this unemployment because their members can't get workers.  Many CEO's are confirming this.  Why would you go to work if you can make the same money or more sitting at home? Some may be staying home claiming worry about getting sick.  But it's easy to make that claim when you're getting very favorable unemployment checks every week.  Also, you can't deny employment and keep getting unemployment checks.  So that could be just an excuse. Frankly, the Federal government should stay out of it.  As usual, they just make bad things worse. It's all about politicians offering free stuff so they get the vote.

It could also be the economy stinks and the jobs aren't really there although I heard there are 7 million jobs available.  Problem is, that even with the minimal jobs gain, most were in low-paying service positions, minimum wage, or nearby.  The economy isn't going to get better with hamburger flippers and coffee barristers.  We need factory jobs, engineers, etc.  Photographers! Meanwhile, the stock market goes up to its highest ever.  What a disconnect.  One of these days it's going to go "pop".


https://www.axios.com/states-unemployment-benefits-worker-shortage-jobs-f8bf48cf-202f-4fe3-9743-0b52993271d3.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/jobs-report-april-2021.html

[Robert Roaldi]

Apparently the US Chamber of Commerce has come out against all this unemployment because their members can't get workers.  Many CEO's are confirming this.  Why would you go to work if you can make the same money or more sitting at home? Some may be staying home claiming worry about getting sick.  But it's easy to make that claim when you're getting very favorable unemployment checks every week.  Also, you can't deny employment and keep getting unemployment checks.  So that could be just an excuse. Frankly, the Federal government should stay out of it.  As usual, they just make bad things worse. It's all about politicians offering free stuff so they get the vote.

It could also be the economy stinks and the jobs aren't really there although I heard there are 7 million jobs available.  Problem is, that even with the minimal jobs gain, most were in low-paying service positions, minimum wage, or nearby.  The economy isn't going to get better with hamburger flippers and coffee barristers.  We need factory jobs, engineers, etc.  Photographers! Meanwhile, the stock market goes up to its highest ever.  What a disconnect.  One of these days it's going to go "pop".


https://www.axios.com/states-unemployment-benefits-worker-shortage-jobs-f8bf48cf-202f-4fe3-9743-0b52993271d3.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/jobs-report-april-2021.html

How much is the benefit?  Is it a flat rate across the board or does it vary? Wouldn't it have to be pretty generous to prefer it to a full-time job if you're not working.

As for complaints by the Chamber of Commerce and CEOs, I tend to take that with a grain of salt. When was the last time someone in business did NOT complain about high wages and taxes and not being able to find staff? It's such a common refrain that it's a cliché. Seems to me you get what you pay for, no? If you want competent energetic employees on whom you can rely, maybe you should pay them what they're worth. Simple supply and demand.

[Alan Klein]

How much is the benefit?  Is it a flat rate across the board or does it vary? Wouldn't it have to be pretty generous to prefer it to a full-time job if you're not working.

As for complaints by the Chamber of Commerce and CEOs, I tend to take that with a grain of salt. When was the last time someone in business did NOT complain about high wages and taxes and not being able to find staff? It's such a common refrain that it's a cliché. Seems to me you get what you pay for, no? If you want competent energetic employees on whom you can rely, maybe you should pay them what they're worth. Simple supply and demand.

But the federal government is sending out money willy nilly.  My wife and I are getting checks from Washington DC.  Why?  We're both retired drawing Social Security and pensions?  We haven't seen a decrease in earnings.  That's just plain stupid. It's wasteful.

I was listening to a CEO of a Mexican fast food franchise, I forget which one.  He said they have 10,000 job openings across the country and can't get people to show up.  Why would he lie about that?  Lot's of firms are offering bonuses just to come in and interview.  It's a real problem.  If you're getting let's say $300 from your state and another $300 from the Feds, or $600 a week, (that's $15 an hour) you're making over $30,000 annually without having to get out of bed.  No commuting carfare, no business clothes, no lunches, or other work costs. What a deal. 

[Robert Roaldi]

But the federal government is sending out money willy nilly.  My wife and I are getting checks from Washington DC.  Why?  We're both retired drawing Social Security and pensions?  We haven't seen a decrease in earnings.  That's just plain stupid. It's wasteful.

Doesn't that come out in the wash when you file your income tax returns?

I was listening to a CEO of a Mexican fast food franchise, I forget which one.  He said they have 10,000 job openings across the country and can't get people to show up.  Why would he lie about that?  Lot's of firms are offering bonuses just to come in and interview.  It's a real problem.  If you're getting let's say $300 from your state and another $300 from the Feds, or $600 a week, (that's $15 an hour) you're making over $30,000 annually without having to get out of bed.  No commuting carfare, no business clothes, no lunches, or other work costs. What a deal. 

I understand that but surely that's a temporary timing issue. The pandemic seems to be ending, the payouts will end, people will return to those minimum wage jobs. Why the panic?

[Alan Klein]

Doesn't that come out in the wash when you file your income tax returns?


I understand that but surely that's a temporary timing issue. The pandemic seems to be ending, the payouts will end, people will return to those minimum wage jobs. Why the panic?

Payments are not taxable for what I receive.  Not sure about the unemployment payments.  Usually state unemployment is taxable but it's different for the unemployment being paid out by the Feds.  It depends.   There's a procedure listed in the article below. These will continue until Sept 7.  Some states are stopping them now to get their residents back to work.
https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/your-money/300-weekly-unemployment-benefits-extended-payments-are-coming-everything-to-know/
In March, the IRS said it would recalculate and send out tax refunds in May. A new report from the Treasury Department on Thursday says 7.3 million people will receive an unemployment tax refund as reported by CNBC. How much these refunds will be will vary, but the IRS will start sending out refunds in May and continue throughout the summer.

Check out the IRS guidance for how to use the tax exemption for unemployment insurance when you file your taxes (the deadline to file is May 17). The plan lets tax filers who received benefits exempt the first $10,200 of funds as long as their modified adjusted gross income is less than $150,000.

[chez]

But the federal government is sending out money willy nilly.  My wife and I are getting checks from Washington DC.  Why?  We're both retired drawing Social Security and pensions?  We haven't seen a decrease in earnings.  That's just plain stupid. It's wasteful.

I was listening to a CEO of a Mexican fast food franchise, I forget which one.  He said they have 10,000 job openings across the country and can't get people to show up.  Why would he lie about that?  Lot's of firms are offering bonuses just to come in and interview.  It's a real problem.  If you're getting let's say $300 from your state and another $300 from the Feds, or $600 a week, (that's $15 an hour) you're making over $30,000 annually without having to get out of bed.  No commuting carfare, no business clothes, no lunches, or other work costs. What a deal. 

The checks you are getting are there in efforts to stimulate the economy by you taking that check to your favourite pizza place and getting a couple large pizzas and on the way home, picking up a tub of your favourite ice cream.

[Alan Klein]

The checks you are getting are there in efforts to stimulate the economy by you taking that check to your favourite pizza place and getting a couple large pizzas and on the way home, picking up a tub of your favourite ice cream.

If stimulation worked, why don't they just give everyone $100,000 and do it right?  You're forgetting that they're going to raise taxes to pay for all this stimulation.  So it's like getting a transfusion from your left arm into your right arm. 

PLus. the cost of everything goes up.  My haircut went up 20% in one year.  Pizzas went up.  Gas is up about 40%.  Film is up.  (Yes I shoot film.) I got a Nathan's hot dog from a Manhattan street vendor last week - $5.00!  I bought a pound of coffee from the supermarket the other day that had 14 ounces of coffee.  Well, the price was the same.

[James Clark]

I don't recall Democrats admitting Trump was president either.

Do you recall Democrats excommunicating anyone for saying the 2016 election was legitimate? 

Didn't they impeach him for colluding with the Russians?

Nope.  He was impeached (the first time) for abuse of power and obstruction of justice Edit: Congress.  An investigation started by Jeff Sessions' DOJ, and generally corroborated by a Republican-led Senate investigation detailed 101 points of contact by Trump surrogates and Russian-affiliated individuals, but he was actually impeached for preventing testimony on those issues, more or less.  (And also for asking another foreign government to interfere with is 2020 election opponent.)

Hillary still doesn't admit she lost, does she?

Sure she does.  She blames it on a ton of things - some goofy, some not - but she's not hanging out saying that she actually won.  That would be really stupid.

How many people here on LuLa called him a traitor?

About the same number of actual fake votes found in the 2020 presidential election I think - so probably about 6 or 7 maybe? 

You have a short memory. 

But Congressional records (and the Internet) are forever, so I can look this stuff up

[Alan Klein]

Do you recall Democrats excommunicating anyone for saying the 2016 election was legitimate? 

Nope.  He was impeached (the first time) for abuse of power and obstruction of justice Edit: Congress.  An investigation started by Jeff Sessions' DOJ, and generally corroborated by a Republican-led Senate investigation detailed 101 points of contact by Trump surrogates and Russian-affiliated individuals, but he was actually impeached for preventing testimony on those issues, more or less.  (And also for asking another foreign government to interfere with is 2020 election opponent.)
 
Sure she does.  She blames it on a ton of things - some goofy, some not - but she's not hanging out saying that she actually won.  That would be really stupid.
 About the same number of actual fake votes found in the 2020 presidential election I think - so probably about 6 or 7 maybe? 
 But Congressional records (and the Internet) are forever, so I can look this stuff up

Come on.  The entire Democratic party was obsessed with destroying Trump's win.  It was compulsive - TDS.  The dossier, the FISA court, surveillance, Mueller, etc.  It reached into the highest levels of government a lot of it illegal in my opinion.  Today, most Republicans, and I'm one, have moved on regarding 2020 election.  We're still trying to figure out who actually is running the presidency today.   

[James Clark]

Today, most Republicans, and I'm one, have moved on regarding 2020 election.

If a majority of Republicans have moved on, who are these people that are purging the GOP of folks that don't adhere to the "stolen election" line? (Not to mention those goofballs down in AZ looking for Panda poop on ballots )

[Alan Klein]

If a majority of Republicans have moved on, who are these people that are purging the GOP of folks that don't adhere to the "stolen election" line? (Not to mention those goofballs down in AZ looking for Panda poop on ballots )

Inside baseball. Even I don't know what they're doing down there or what their purpose is. 

[Alan Klein]

If a majority of Republicans have moved on, who are these people that are purging the GOP of folks that don't adhere to the "stolen election" line? (Not to mention those goofballs down in AZ looking for Panda poop on ballots )

Interesting article even though it's a CNN poll.  A lot of people feel elections are not honest and some feel new rules lock out voters.  There seems to be discontent on both sides of the argument.  By the way, I posted Florida's new election laws and asked if you found them fair or not.  Did you read my post about it?  What do you think?

[Alan Klein]

Interesting article even though it's a CNN poll.  A lot of people feel elections are not honest and some feel new rules lock out voters.  There seems to be discontent on both sides of the argument.  By the way, I posted Florida's new election laws and asked if you found them fair or not.  Did you read my post about it?  What do you think?

Here are details of the Florida law.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/07/politics/fact-check-florida-elections-law-desantis-drop-boxes-id-applications/index.html

[James Clark]

Interesting article even though it's a CNN poll.  A lot of people feel elections are not honest and some feel new rules lock out voters.  There seems to be discontent on both sides of the argument.  By the way, I posted Florida's new election laws and asked if you found them fair or not.  Did you read my post about it?  What do you think?

I missed that - apologies.  Thanks for reposting below.. I'll take a look this weekend and happy to discuss

[LesPalenik]

Interesting article even though it's a CNN poll.  A lot of people feel elections are not honest and some feel new rules lock out voters.  There seems to be discontent on both sides of the argument.  By the way, I posted Florida's new election laws and asked if you found them fair or not.  Did you read my post about it?  What do you think?

Why can't they put one person from each party to the "counting committee" for each voting station? That would eliminate any contentions and doubts.

[James Clark]

Why can't they put one person from each party to the "counting committee" for each voting station? That would eliminate any contentions and doubts.

That’s basically what they do.  According to an interview I heard this morning, in Colorado at least, they also use two-person teams such as you describe to collect ballots from drop boxes, open ballots, count ballots etc.  Basically, it’s not like no one ever thought of these things before and suddenly someone realized that all sorts of unattended malfeasance was happening the whole time.  “Election integrity” is a sham where the “solution” just makes it harder to vote.