Yea I think it might and it could turn on one single statement by Biden. He went on and on about how he was not going to end fracking. His plans have us carbon neutral by what, 2035? So when pushed about not ending fracking he said he was going to "transistion" away from oil. Thats code for ending the oil industry. Trump pounced on that and you can bet that in all of the oil states Joe needs to win Trump will beat him about the head with that statement.
The race is getting razor thin in a whole bunch of key states. A point or too could be a big deal.
I think that quote is going to cost him PA.
The debate last night was pivotal for Trump. He made no mistakes, he did not step on any rakes and hit himself in the head, and Biden totally blew it on a lot of things.
Another was his dark winter and we may need to lock down again. That may play well in NY and CA, but in PA, and other swing states, it just does not. Trump promoted hope and getting back to normal while Biden promoted cowering inside and running away. Not a good look; people are tired of it.
Biden's comments on his son's businesses actions is going to dog him as well, and people are going to start reading about it. Biden also basically called a veteran a lier when talking about Bobiluski's confirmation of Joe Biden being involved in his son's deals.
Right now, I would say Trump is back on tract to win. Two polls this week showed Trump within 2 and 3 points nationally. Trafalgar, which called the election last time and takes into account apprehensions from Trump supporters to tell pollster they plan to vote for Trump, predicts Trump will win MI and, now, probably PA. FL, NC, AZ, and TX will not even be close like the polls are saying. Here's hoping!
If you asked last week, I would have said best case we keep the Senate. Last night changed my view on that.