PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[chez]

You missed my point.  Maybe I wasn't clear.  The point is this isn't over.  It's all a crapshoot. Comparing case and death numbers is an ego trip that doesn't comport with the facts that change.  No one has a monopoly on anything.  Things can change overnight.  Laughing at America's higher case count is silly.  zSo now Europe's is higher.  Especially when you consider that America tests more then anyone else. What goes around comes around.

Yep...testing is one thing...but America leads in the death count which is all telling...especially from a nation that spends so much money on their health system.

[Alan Klein]

In commie Canada we "got away with it" just fine, despite the similarities in our cultures.  Canadian results speak for themselves, as do American. 

Intransigence disguised as freedom is a flawed interpretation of liberty.

America is doing pretty much what everyone else is doing.  Most places are shut down.  Some places are opening but with limited patrons.  People wear masks for the most part.  Sure they're nutty people ignoring all rules.  But that's a small minority. As usual, the press plays up the minority because its news.   Meanwhile Europe's cases are worse than the US. 

[JoeKitchen]

Yep...testing is one thing...but America leads in the death count which is all telling...especially from a nation that spends so much money on their health system.

In death rate, we are 9th in the world.  If you remove NY, we are 47th. 

Cuomo is such a bastard for killing so many elderly.  If only he had any common sense to not send C-19 patients to come in contact with the most vulnerable, we could have avoided so much death.  But hey, you can only expect so much from Dems. 

[Alan Klein]

Yep...testing is one thing...but America leads in the death count which is all telling...especially from a nation that spends so much money on their health system.

Check my last post.  Death counts can change as well.  It isn't over until it's over.

[TechTalk]

NO ONE is laughing at anything regarding the Covid virus. OK, except for the Covid is a hoax folks and Mitch McConnell when his opponent talked about his delay of Covid relief during their debate... with those exceptions noted... NO One is laughing.

The U.S. has a larger population than most other countries. The U.S. is not leading the world in testing its population (per capita testing). Talking points don't equal testing your citizens and the delay in U.S. testing early in the pandemic was a major cause of the virus spreading out of control so rapidly.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/05/testing-by-the-numbers/

[JoeKitchen]

NO ONE is laughing at anything regarding the Covid virus. OK, except for the Covid is a hoax folks and Mitch McConnell when his opponent talked about his delay of Covid relief during their debate... with those exceptions noted... NO One is laughing.

The U.S. has a larger population than most other countries. The U.S. is not leading the world in testing its population (per capita testing). Talking points don't equal testing your citizens and the delay in U.S. testing early in the pandemic was a major cause of the virus spreading out of control so rapidly.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/05/testing-by-the-numbers/

Testing means nothing after the virus is in the population.  It does nothing, absolutely nothing, to help keep the spread down.  It is only good for research after it is out. 

The only time testing helps is with contact tracing before the virus has spread.  After that, you cant do anything to control it, so testing is a moot point and in meaningless at this point. 

[TechTalk]

The U.S. has more total recorded deaths than any country in the world. In deaths per 100,000 population we're doing better than Mexico, Chile, Spain, Ecuador, Brazil, Bolivia, and Belgium and that's it at the moment.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

[Alan Klein]

The U.S. has more total recorded deaths than any country in the world. In deaths per 100,000 population we're doing better than Mexico, Chile, Spain, Ecuador, Brazil, Bolivia, and Belgium and that's it at the moment.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Statistics are tricky and distort things.  In Observed Case Fatality Rates from the same link your provided, the US is better than Mexico, United Kingdom, Iran, Peru, France, Spain, Indonesia, Romania, Columbia and Brazil. But these figures are totals from the beginning as are your statistics.  The issue now is that the circumstances are reversed.  No Europe's rates are worse as my graph above shows.  Arguing who is better is silly.  Now one has power over this thing.  Things will change over time.  Luck enters the fray.  As I've suggested, let's wait until the end to analyze which methods were the best.  No one has all the answers. 

[TechTalk]

Currently, anyone that has Covid symptoms should be tested. Anyone who has had close contact with someone with confirmed COVID-19 should get tested. Why? To mitigate the spread of the virus.

Good lord! This isn't that hard to understand. It's been standard public health practice for infectious disease control for decades. Tuberculosis, venereal disease, etc.

[Alan Klein]

Currently, anyone that has Covid symptoms should be tested. Anyone who has had close contact with someone with confirmed COVID-19 should get tested. Why? To mitigate the spread of the virus.

Good lord! This isn't that hard to understand. It's been standard public health practice for infectious disease control for decades. Tuberculosis, venereal disease, etc.

I agree that testing is smart but only in certain circumstances.  Just testing people to test is a waste of time except for people like medical, EMS, police, etc, people who connect with the public and sick every day. .  First off, you can only test a very small part of the overall population.  Most people are not getting tested because they don't want to unless they've been exposed or think they have.  I tested because my mother-in-law tested positive.  My wife didn't because by the time she got around to it, they re-tested her mom and she was negative.  The first test was a false positive, a big issue with many of the tests sometimes up to 30% false. So except for the aforementioned situations, testing is a waste of time to stop much.

[LesPalenik]

Statistics are tricky and distort things.  In Observed Case Fatality Rates from the same link your provided, the US is better than Mexico, United Kingdom, Iran, Peru, France, Spain, Indonesia, Romania, Columbia and Brazil. But these figures are totals from the beginning as are your statistics.  The issue now is that the circumstances are reversed.  No Europe's rates are worse as my graph above shows.  Arguing who is better is silly.  No one has power over this thing.  Things will change over time.  Luck enters the fray.  As I've suggested, let's wait until the end to analyze which methods were the best.  No one has all the answers.

An interesting case is Czechia. It's a relatively small country with 10 million people. They took an early action in the spring with travel bans and masks and consequently kept number of infections and deaths very low. Then in the summer they relaxed the restrictions and now they are experiencing huge infection increase. On Oct 16, they had over 11,000 new cases and 53 deaths. That compares with Canada's (37 million people) 2374 cases and 23 deaths on the same day.

[JoeKitchen]

I agree that testing is smart but only in certain circumstances.  Just testing people to test is a waste of time except for people like medical, EMS, police, etc, people who connect with the public and sick every day. .  First off, you can only test a very small part of the overall population.  Most people are not getting tested because they don't want to unless they've been exposed or think they have.  I tested because my mother-in-law tested positive.  My wife didn't because by the time she got around to it, they re-tested her mom and she was negative.  The first test was a false positive, a big issue with many of the tests sometimes up to 30% false. So except for the aforementioned situations, testing is a waste of time to stop much.

Another big issue with large scale testing is you will get many more false positives then true positives, especially with a 30% fail rate. 

Large scale testing makes no sense after community spread. 

[Alan Klein]

An interesting case is Czechia. It's a relatively small country with 10 million people. They took an early action in the spring with travel bans and masks and consequently kept number of infections and deaths very low. Then in the summer they relaxed the restrictions and now they are experiencing huge infection increase. On Oct 16, they had over 11,000 new cases and 53 deaths. That compares with Canada's (37 million people) 2374 cases and 23 deaths on the same day.

What explains the difference between Czechia and Canada?

[LesPalenik]

What explains the difference between Czechia and Canada?

One reason is the difference in relative population density between those two countries. In Canada, outside the main cities, the population density is relatively low and there is a lot of distancing between people and communities. The other reason could be that in Europe more people rely on mass transportation than in North America.

Czechia implemented the travel restrictions, lockdowns and mask mandates very early on and kept the infection numbers down, but then it relaxed those measures in the summer also earlier than in Canada.  The influx of foreign virus carriers and large number of Czechs returning home from their vacations did the rest.

Not to forget lower prices and much higher consumption of alcohol, especially beer in Czechia.   

“At times of lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic, alcohol consumption can exacerbate health vulnerability, risk-taking behaviours, mental health issues and violence,” WHO/Europe said

Not only will alcohol not protect you from the virus, but the organization said it can actually make you more vulnerable to contracting COVID-19.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6831677/coronavirus-drinking-alcohol/

[Alan Klein]

One reason is the difference in relative population density between those two countries. In Canada, outside the main cities, the population density is relatively low and there is a lot of distancing between people and communities. The other reason could be that in Europe more people rely on mass transportation than in North America.

Czechia implemented the travel restrictions, lockdowns and mask mandates very early on and kept the infection numbers down, but then it relaxed those measures in the summer also earlier than in Canada.  The influx of foreign virus carriers and large number of Czechs returning home from their vacations did the rest.

Not to forget lower prices and much higher consumption of alcohol, especially beer in Czechia.   

https://globalnews.ca/news/6831677/coronavirus-drinking-alcohol/

Interestingly, America is a lot like Canada.  We drive a lot and live fairly apart.  Except for the cities.  Someone mentioned that if we take NYC out of the statistics, America is 47th in cases or deaths, not sure. NYC also has mass transportation, the crowded subways where everyone breathes on everyone else.  People live in apartment buildings, work in high rise office buildings and use crowded elevators.  It also had 65 million visitors in 2019, many from foreign countries, especially Chinese. NYC was like a Petri dish

[LesPalenik]

Interestingly, America is a lot like Canada.  We drive a lot and live fairly apart.  Except for the cities.  Someone mentioned that if we take NYC out of the statistics, America is 47th in cases or deaths, not sure. NYC also has mass transportation, the crowded subways where everyone breathes on everyone else.  People live in apartment buildings, work in high rise office buildings and use crowded elevators.  It also had 65 million visitors in 2019, many from foreign countries, especially Chinese. NYC was like a Petri dish

In some ways, USA is similar to Canada, in others quite different.
In Canada, most infections occured in Ontario and Quebec, two most populous provinces. The smaller prairie and Atlantic provinces show relatively low infection numbers.
The recent US stats show the highest infection areas mostly in the Republican states. It looks like wearing the MAGA hats is not as effective as wearing the masks.

Coronavirus initially spread quickly on the American West coast and the Northeast, with New York City becoming the global epicenter for a time, before transmission declined rapidly after governors implemented statewide mask mandates and stay-at-home orders. The South experienced its own wave of cases after governors lifted restrictions early into the pandemic, and transmission remains troublingly high in that region. In recent months, coronavirus spread as moved across the Midwest. Now, states in the West including Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Idaho are seeing their own spikes in cases amid lax social distancing policies.

North Dakota and South Dakota currently have the most confirmed cases per capita among U.S. states, according to data from the New York Times. South Dakota’s governor, Kristi Noem, a Republican and staunch Trump supporter, declined to impose any mask mandate or business restrictions within her state.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-surge-in-republican-areas-124951839.html

[William Walker]

In death rate, we are 9th in the world.  If you remove NY, we are 47th. 

Cuomo is such a bastard for killing so many elderly.  If only he had any common sense to not send C-19 patients to come in contact with the most vulnerable, we could have avoided so much death.  But hey, you can only expect so much from Dems.

Joe, I am not quite sure how you arrived at those numbers... I took a little time to check them out. Please tell me where I messed up.
(I removed San Marino at #1 with 42 deaths and Andorra at #4 with 59 deaths. Together they have a population of just over 100 000 people.)

You drop from 8th to 10th...

I used Worldometer's numbers.

I added South Africa at 309 per million because we are next in line with less than half the numbers of the top ten...

If you want to add the two smaller countries in, you go from 10th to 12th.

[Alan Klein]

Joe, I am not quite sure how you arrived at those numbers... I took a little time to check them out. Please tell me where I messed up.
(I removed San Marino at #1 with 42 deaths and Andorra at #4 with 59 deaths. Together they have a population of just over 100 000 people.)

You drop from 8th to 10th...

I used Worldometer's numbers.

I added South Africa at 309 per million because we are next in line with less than half the numbers of the top ten...

If you want to add the two smaller countries in, you go from 10th to 12th.

With Europe's rate recently worse than the US, these statistics and order may change substantially.  Like I've been saying, comparing casualty rates in the middle of a war is a fool's errand.  You're going to get egg on your face.

[William Walker]

With Europe's rate recently worse than the US, these statistics and order may change substantially.  Like I've been saying, comparing casualty rates in the middle of a war is a fool's errand.  You're going to get egg on your face.

Alan, in case you missed Joe's quote, I was merely responding to his claim. I am fully aware that this thing is not over yet...

[Alan Klein]

In some ways, USA is similar to Canada, in others quite different.
In Canada, most infections occured in Ontario and Quebec, two most populous provinces. The smaller prairie and Atlantic provinces show relatively low infection numbers.
The recent US stats show the highest infection areas mostly in the Republican states. It looks like wearing the MAGA hats is not as effective as wearing the masks.
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-surge-in-republican-areas-124951839.html

What does a chart from June 1st prove?  These states got hit after the main blue Democratic states like NY and NJ that had the most cases and don't even show on the chart.  Why is California near the bottom? Oh, you're not including cases prior to June 1st.  This chart is cherry picking for political reasons.  Who put it together?  The DNC?