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Author Topic: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?  (Read 42381 times)

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #180 on: March 05, 2020, 07:33:28 am »

I clicked "Post" too quickly. I found this explanation of the vaccine production process by the NHS,  https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/how-flu-vaccine-works/, but it doesn't address why the vaccines are limited to a small number of strains.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #181 on: March 05, 2020, 08:10:08 am »

Assuming you mean Guillain-Barré, the evidence that that post-infection autoimmune condition is related, other than temporally, to vaccination is slim to non-existent.

Jeremy
Yes, my mistake on the spelling.  I don't know what your latter point is.  I said "very low" side effects in my post.  VAERs database does show that G-B is very low but it's not non-existent.  There were approximately 450 cases associated with the 1976 Swine Flu vaccine (I knew two individuals, both in biomedical research who were afflicted).
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Alan Klein

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #182 on: March 05, 2020, 08:18:55 am »

Good question. Probably worth asking the CDC about. I'm sure it's partly a cost/benefit decision. There is probably limited capacity for vaccine testing,  production (and delivery) and producing vaccines against strains that are not expected to be active that season might be pointless and take away from production and distribution of others. From a practical point of view, if it's difficult to get everyone to take one shot, I imagine that trying to educate the public about 2 vaccine versions would be a public health headache. Many of the people I know, who I would have expected to be more informed, still complain when they get colds despite having had a flu vaccine shot. The cold vs flu difference must have been explained in a million different places by now.

I did look at some pages of the CDC site and vaccine shots traditionally protected against 3 strains but that 4-strain versions are also now popular. I'm left with the impression that combining them into into one shot is not a trivial matter.

On a personal note, and as an aside, I also know some people who resent being encouraged by their government to take vaccines, some kind of "rebellion" against the "man". It's difficult for me to take this seriously considering the large number of people who buy illegal drugs manufactured by criminals.
A lot of Americans don;t trust their government. (High trust =8%)  It seems better in Canada.
https://www.statista.com/chart/12634/where-trust-in-government-is-highest-and-lowest/

Members are Congress are trusted at about the same level as used car salesmen.  8%
https://www.statista.com/chart/12420/americas-most-and-least-trusted-professions/

Media seems better.  41%. But that's probably because we watch tainted news outlets who have the same beliefs we have so we agree with them. Of course those other outlets are the real liars.
https://www.statista.com/chart/5883/trust-in-mass-media/

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #183 on: March 05, 2020, 08:22:12 am »

I clicked "Post" too quickly. I found this explanation of the vaccine production process by the NHS,  https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/how-flu-vaccine-works/, but it doesn't address why the vaccines are limited to a small number of strains.
The link is a good presentation.  One of the key problems is that the vaccine manufacturing process is tedious and somewhat lengthy.  It takes manufacturers several months from the time the strains are identified to when flu vaccine will be ready for use.  With Corona virus there are some new approaches to designing the vaccine that have not been tried before.  It's also not clear who easy some of these will be scaled up.  There are only a small number of companies able to produce vaccines at scale:  Sanofi, Merck, GSK, Pfizer.  Pfizer mainly manufactures bacterial vaccines which are technologically different.  Sanofi and GSK are the major flu vaccine manufacturers.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #184 on: March 05, 2020, 08:42:43 am »

The link is a good presentation.  One of the key problems is that the vaccine manufacturing process is tedious and somewhat lengthy.  It takes manufacturers several months from the time the strains are identified to when flu vaccine will be ready for use.  With Corona virus there are some new approaches to designing the vaccine that have not been tried before.  It's also not clear who easy some of these will be scaled up.  There are only a small number of companies able to produce vaccines at scale:  Sanofi, Merck, GSK, Pfizer.  Pfizer mainly manufactures bacterial vaccines which are technologically different.  Sanofi and GSK are the major flu vaccine manufacturers.
The disease will pass naturally this year before any vaccines are developed.   Dr. Trump suggests this Spring.  His guess is as good as anyone else's. 

LesPalenik

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #185 on: March 05, 2020, 09:04:12 am »

The disease will pass naturally this year before any vaccines are developed.   Dr. Trump suggests this Spring.  His guess is as good as anyone else's.

Dr. Trump's predictions are usually overly optimistic.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #186 on: March 05, 2020, 09:34:28 am »

Dr. Trump's predictions are usually overly optimistic.
Let's hope he's right.  I see this thing fizzing out in a couple of months in time for the democrat convention.  :)

LesPalenik

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #187 on: March 05, 2020, 10:01:25 am »

Let's hope he's right.  I see this thing fizzing out in a couple of months in time for the democrat convention.  :)

You saw also Biden fizzing. Sometimes things take unexpected turns.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #188 on: March 05, 2020, 10:10:24 am »

You saw also Biden fizzing. Sometimes things take unexpected turns.
That's true.  If I really knew how to predict, I'd be a rich man. :)

LesPalenik

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #189 on: March 05, 2020, 10:16:30 am »

That's true.  If I really knew how to predict, I'd be a rich man. :)

You can say that again. Especially with the first item in this thread title.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #190 on: March 05, 2020, 10:22:07 am »

You can say that again. Especially with the first item in this thread title.
Unfortunately I always get it wrong selling low and buying high. 

Rob C

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #191 on: March 05, 2020, 10:25:10 am »

Good question. Probably worth asking the CDC about. I'm sure it's partly a cost/benefit decision. There is probably limited capacity for vaccine testing,  production (and delivery) and producing vaccines against strains that are not expected to be active that season might be pointless and take away from production and distribution of others. From a practical point of view, if it's difficult to get everyone to take one shot, I imagine that trying to educate the public about 2 vaccine versions would be a public health headache. Many of the people I know, who I would have expected to be more informed, still complain when they get colds despite having had a flu vaccine shot. The cold vs flu difference must have been explained in a million different places by now.

I did look at some pages of the CDC site and vaccine shots traditionally protected against 3 strains but that 4-strain versions are also now popular. I'm left with the impression that combining them into into one shot is not a trivial matter.

On a personal note, and as an aside, I also know some people who resent being encouraged by their government to take vaccines, some kind of "rebellion" against the "man". It's difficult for me to take this seriously considering the large number of people who buy illegal drugs manufactured by criminals.

But Robert, those friendly, encouraging suppliers are "my" Man, who is somebody other than "the" Man.

The magic lives in the pronoun. Or so I believe.

Robert Roaldi

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #192 on: March 05, 2020, 11:43:57 am »

But Robert, those friendly, encouraging suppliers are "my" Man, who is somebody other than "the" Man.

The magic lives in the pronoun. Or so I believe.


Semantics and crime, you might have a research topic there.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #193 on: March 05, 2020, 11:51:32 am »

I saw somewhere on the interweb this morning that Trump was advocating that people continue to go to work even if they contract the Covid-19 virus. (One example: https://crooksandliars.com/2020/03/trump-calls-hannity-tells-people-covid-19). I hope that's taken out of context or badly reported.

I might be able to see the point of maintaining a brave face for morale reasons, but this seems like bad advice. It's not even good advice for people with a common cold. Passing on diseases to co-workers is kind of spectacularly stupid, isn't it? Doesn't do much for productivity, I'm sure. Besides that, haven't I read somewhere that Trump is somewhat of a germaphobe. It would be interesting to see what he thinks of white house employees who show up to work in a contagious state.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #194 on: March 05, 2020, 11:56:52 am »


Semantics and crime, you might have a research topic there.

Or the next Netflix movie.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #195 on: March 05, 2020, 11:59:44 am »

I saw somewhere on the interweb this morning that Trump was advocating that people continue to go to work even if they contract the Covid-19 virus. (One example: https://crooksandliars.com/2020/03/trump-calls-hannity-tells-people-covid-19). I hope that's taken out of context or badly reported.

I might be able to see the point of maintaining a brave face for morale reasons, but this seems like bad advice. It's not even good advice for people with a common cold. Passing on diseases to co-workers is kind of spectacularly stupid, isn't it? Doesn't do much for productivity, I'm sure. Besides that, haven't I read somewhere that Trump is somewhat of a germaphobe. It would be interesting to see what he thinks of white house employees who show up to work in a contagious state.

Going to work with a common cold or flu is a time-honoured American tradition. That's what the employers expect.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #196 on: March 05, 2020, 12:04:41 pm »

I was at my poker game last night and sneezed into my right hand.  The other players made me go to the bathroom to wash my hands.  But I won $9 by the end of the night so that just shows them.  :)

LesPalenik

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #197 on: March 05, 2020, 12:13:55 pm »

Did they shake your hand after your win? Or maybe you should have hugged them to show them your true feelings.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #198 on: March 05, 2020, 12:22:04 pm »

To offset any investment losses at these precarious times, I'd recommend to sell your airline stocks and buy the 3M company.
3M has ramped up testing and production of single-use N95 respirator masks. The company is working overtime without any disruptions in production. That should be reflected positively in their next quarterly report.

Quote
Diversified manufacturer 3M Co <MMM.N> has avoided major supply chain disruptions from the coronavirus outbreak by sourcing materials for its protective face masks from regional suppliers instead of far-flung locations.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-taps-regional-suppliers-meet-154843443.html
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?
« Reply #199 on: March 05, 2020, 12:24:56 pm »

To offset any investment losses at these precarious times, I'd recommend to sell your airline stocks and buy the 3M company.
3M has ramped up testing and production of single-use N95 respirator masks. The company is working overtime without any disruptions in production. That should be reflected positively in their next quarterly report.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-taps-regional-suppliers-meet-154843443.html
I own 3M stock and have for years.  The best performing stock in my portfolio is Clorox!  It's the only one in positive territory this year, up 17% as of today.
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