Dow down 1900 in two days; Corona virus prediction?

[Alan Klein]

Well, duh!

That was obvious already from the 2% mortality rate (if correct)

It's not just the 2% mortality rate.  It's that many people who are infected don't even know that they are.  The symptoms are that mild. 

[Alan Klein]

This is good news for the rest of the world epidemiologically and economically.

Foxconn, the main assembler of Apple (AAPL) products such as the iPhone and iPad, expects to resume normal production by the end of the month after the coronavirus outbreak forced it to close factories in China in late January.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/tech/foxconn-coronavirus-apple/index.html

[Chris Kern]

This is good news for the rest of the world epidemiologically . . .

Foxconn, the main assembler of Apple (AAPL) products such as the iPhone and iPad, expects to resume normal production by the end of the month. . . .

It's an enormous relief to those of us who have been worrying about the pandemic threat of Android cellphones.

[John Camp]

The report conclusion for the Public included a confirmation of my point:

For the public
1. Recognize that COVID-19 is a new and concerning disease, but that outbreaks
can managed with the right response and that the vast majority of infected
people will recover;

The flu is estimated to kill between 18,000 and 42,000 people annually in the US, depending on the exact form of the virus. That's with a mortality rate of less than one tenth of 1 percent. At 2 percent for COVID-19, we'd have 20 times the death rate of the flu, but unlike with the flu, there are no vaccines to protect people (about half of Americans get flu shots.) I basically don't care about people who have only a mild case of COVID-19; they can take care of themselves. But the elderly are gonna get whacked hard. I doubt that the rate is actually 2%, I suspect it will probably be half that because we don't really know how many people have contracted COVID-19 and recover without incident or a report. But even half would b an almost unprecedented disaster in the US, far more than annual flu deaths and auto-accident deaths combined.

[Alan Goldhammer]

John Camp's point is right on and something I touched on in my previous post.  Thanks to the bungling CDC, the US is way behind in diagnostic testing.  Until we have a firm baseline on infection numbers, attempts to come up with statistics on morbidity and mortality are almost worthless. 

So much for the Federal Reserve rate cut that took place this morning.  As of 2 PM, EST the market is again heading south. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Chinese stats:

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Chinese stats:

Could it be that, due to the one-child policy, the number of young people is below average in the Chinese demographics? If so then it's obvious that their age group will also be relatively underrepresented in these Corona statistics. I know that the rate is per age category, but it looks abnormal. And of course these are government statistics, so they could be fake news.

[Alan Goldhammer]

Could it be that, due to the one-child policy, the number of young people is below average in the Chinese demographics? If so then it's obvious that their age group will also be relatively underrepresented in these Corona statistics.

No, it's stranger than that.  The Wuhan data show very low rates of infection in those under 20 years of age.  those of us who had children know that it's very hard to get them to reliably wash hands and keep them away from their face when dirty.  Because of this one would think the infection rate would be much higher.  It may be that they don't present with significant clinical symptoms and hence are not screened for the COVID-19.  It points to the fact that much more screening needs to be done including the general population so that we can get a good baseline.  "If" the rate of infection is much higher than we think than the morbidity and mortality rates go way down.  This is just another piece of the puzzle that needs to be solved.

[Alan Klein]

Chinese stats:

I'm in the 8% group.  I'm locking myself up in the house until this thing passes. 

[Alan Klein]

It's an enormous relief to those of us who have been worrying about the pandemic threat of Android cellphones.

I don't know if you're being sarcastic Chris.  But the point I was making is that if the factories are opening, then the virus is on the downswing in China.  They had a few thousand dead out of a billion plus people, much less than a typical influenza season.  So if those figures hold over here, we're really talking about another flu type infection here in the states only not as bad.  Even the CDC says let's not over sell the illness to scare people, something that's happening because this is election season as well as flu season.

[armand]

Statistics can be deceiving. It doesn't matter that your chance of dying is only 2% if you happen to be in those 2%.

Keep in mind also there were multiple Chinese doctors dead and I doubt they were that old and/or with that many comorbidities.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Some interesting strategies...

[Rob C]

Some interesting strategies...

All kinds of people do suicide vests; a few gentle, well-aimed sneezes could be just as dramatic. And better yet, no need for the messy suicide part! What's not to like?

:-)

[armand]

Some interesting strategies...

There are idiots everywhere

[Alan Klein]

With the DOW down 785 points today despite and .5% drop in government rates, the economy long term may be more of a problem than the virus.  What happened to Bush in 2008 may happen to Trump this year. 

[John Camp]

I say this non-humorously...if it turns out the mortality rate for the COVID-19 is 1% or less, and there's no chance of stopping it, why not just give up and get the factories and shipping going again, to minimize the economic impact?

[armand]

I say this non-humorously...if it turns out the mortality rate for the COVID-19 is 1% or less, and there's no chance of stopping it, why not just give up and get the factories and shipping going again, to minimize the economic impact?

Because not everybody will be getting it, probably less than half of the US population will get it even in the worst case scenario.

[chez]

It's not just the 2% mortality rate.  It's that many people who are infected don't even know that they are.  The symptoms are that mild.

Yes...for some they are mild...thus much more dangerous for those that cannot handle the virus. It can spread like wildfire and slowly pick off the vulnerable, the one's with weakened immune systems.

[chez]

Statistics can be deceiving. It doesn't matter that your chance of dying is only 2% if you happen to be in those 2%.

Keep in mind also there were multiple Chinese doctors dead and I doubt they were that old and/or with that many comorbidities.

Yep...tell that statistic to the 9 dead in Washington state.

[chez]

I say this non-humorously...if it turns out the mortality rate for the COVID-19 is 1% or less, and there's no chance of stopping it, why not just give up and get the factories and shipping going again, to minimize the economic impact?

How would you feel if you were in that 1%? Just collateral damage?

After all the rich need to keep making their money...who cares about some casualties.