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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 43977 times)

MurrayFoote

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1300 on: January 12, 2020, 04:32:55 pm »

That's crazy.  China is a developed country.  Economically its second in the world.  I just bought a 4x5 camera from them.  How many does Australia or the US make?  IF you leave China out of the formula, you'll never get a handle on CO2.  You'll be spitting into the wind.

China is not a developed country and is not generally recognised as such.  While it is one of the largest economies in the world, it is close to world average in GDP per capita, $18,000 as compared to $63,000 for the US.

China obviously needs to be part of the solution but that does not give the federal governments of Australia and the US an excuse for effectively doing nothing.  As I said "The problem was originally with developed countries and if we do not show leadership we cannot expect to persuade others."  Also, while likely not enough, China has made significant commitments to action on climate change, unlike the US and Australia.
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MurrayFoote

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1301 on: January 12, 2020, 04:48:47 pm »

That's true. The scientists have provided answers - thousands of answers on thousands of climate related topics, and not all of the answers are consistent by any means.
The climate system is complex, chaotic and non-linear. Future unexpected, large and rapid climate system changes (as have occurred in the past) are, by their nature, difficult to predict. This implies that future climate changes may also involve ‘surprises'. In particular, these arise from the non-linear, chaotic nature of the climate system.
Didn't you know that?   :(
I'm quoting from the IPCC.

The science has been clear for some time.  Here are some quotes from six years ago.

A March 2014 IPCC assessment found with “high confidence” that higher temperatures and drier conditions would lead to “increased damages to ecosystems and settlements, economic losses and risks to human life from wildfires in most of southern Australia and many parts of New Zealand”.


And from the Australian Climate Council in 2014:
“Very hot, dry and windy days create very high bushfire risk. The most direct link between bushfires and climate change therefore comes from the relationship between the long-term trend towards a warmer climate due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions ... and the incidence of very hot days.”

“Put simply, climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of very hot days and is driving up the likelihood of very high fire danger weather.”

“Asking if a weather event is ‘caused’ by climate change is the wrong question. All extreme weather events are now being influenced by climate change because they are occurring in a climate system that is hotter and moister than it was 50 years ago.”
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1302 on: January 12, 2020, 04:56:51 pm »

China is not a developed country and is not generally recognised as such.  While it is one of the largest economies in the world, it is close to world average in GDP per capita, $18,000 as compared to $63,000 for the US.

China obviously needs to be part of the solution but that does not give the federal governments of Australia and the US an excuse for effectively doing nothing.  As I said "The problem was originally with developed countries and if we do not show leadership we cannot expect to persuade others."  Also, while likely not enough, China has made significant commitments to action on climate change, unlike the US and Australia.

Murray, You're late to this thread.  We've all hashed out our positions in depth over 60 pages.  You can read my earlier responses.  I'm not going to rehash them out again. I have more important things to do. 

Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1303 on: January 12, 2020, 04:59:02 pm »

Like the Trump thread, this one has turned out useless too.

Entrenched ideas remain as they are; those who will not see remain blindly oblivious, and so it goes, just like religion, with no solution beyond bitterness and eventual mass killings, whether by food and water wars, fire, starvation or drowning.

So sad that some can't even agree that, right or wrong in the broader sense, it at least makes sense to try and stop what's happening or, at the very least, slow it down so we have another generation or two living the pre-apocalyptic life.

Doing any less than trying is the ultimate selfishness.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1304 on: January 12, 2020, 05:08:08 pm »

Like the Trump thread, this one has turned out useless too.

Entrenched ideas remain as they are; those who will not see remain blindly oblivious, and so it goes, just like religion, with no solution beyond bitterness and eventual mass killings, whether by food and water wars, fire, starvation or drowning.

So sad that some can't even agree that, right or wrong in the broader sense, it at least makes sense to try and stop what's happening or, at the very least, slow it down so we have another generation or two living the pre-apocalyptic life.

Doing any less than trying is the ultimate selfishness.
Talk to the Chinese.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1305 on: January 12, 2020, 05:28:16 pm »

... it at least makes sense to try and stop what's happening or, at the very least, slow it down...

Like what?

Try what exactly? Stop what exactly? Slow what exactly? And more importantly, how?

The latest example of the climato-maniacs lunacy is the attack on Roger Federer. Yes, the tennis star. Apparently, those idiots think that by stopping him from accepting Credit Suisse bank's sponsorship, they will stop Credit Suisse, and by stopping the bank they will stop the fossil fuel industry that the bank finances.

Stoping the fossil fuel industry!? Are you serious? How do you think the world will function without it? Shall I start looking for a bow and arrow for my next lunch? Amish friends, here i come!

Idiots.

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1306 on: January 12, 2020, 07:27:07 pm »

It looks like Roger Federer will accept the Credit Suisse sponsorship and the said bank will continue their business with the fossil industry. Pure business.
Much more worrisome is the fact that fossil industry continues to sabotage the global climate discussions. Meanwhile, PetroChina Co.’s capital spending is bigger than that of Exxon Mobil and BP combined.

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Fossil fuel industry giants such as ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell are maintaining an outsize presence at global climate discussions, working to undermine scientific consensus and slow policy progress, according to findings released last week by an environmental monitoring organization.

The Climate Investigations Center (CIC) report claims that fossil fuel trade associations have sent more than 6,400 delegates to climate talks since 1995, including delegates from Shell, BP and ExxonMobil.

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/fossil-fuel-industry-quietly-undermining-global-climate-talks-report
« Last Edit: January 12, 2020, 07:41:47 pm by LesPalenik »
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1307 on: January 12, 2020, 07:45:36 pm »

Like what?...Try what exactly? Stop what exactly? Slow what exactly? And more importantly, how?...Idiots.

Yawn.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1308 on: January 13, 2020, 05:57:51 am »

This Facebook post seems appropriate at this point:

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1309 on: January 13, 2020, 03:05:08 pm »

This Facebook post seems appropriate at this point:

Apropos blame... I am sure our friends will blame it on the climate change (man-caused, of course). When it is too hot - climate change, when it is too cold - climate change, when it is high tide - climate change, when it is low tide - climate change. I know even what are they going to say this time too: something about climate change and extremes:

"Venice canals almost dry, two months after severe floods|

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51098129

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1310 on: January 13, 2020, 03:21:14 pm »

Someone lost the stopper. 

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1311 on: January 13, 2020, 07:41:54 pm »

The science has been clear for some time.  Here are some quotes from six years ago.

Yes. The science is very clear that the climate system is complex, chaotic and non-linear, which obviously makes predictions of future climate very unreliable. However, the IPCC, in its summaries for politicians, tends to soften this reality by using the term 'projection' rather than 'prediction', because its predictions have been wrong on so many occasions in the past, and using the word 'challenging' rather than 'unreliable'.

Quote
“Asking if a weather event is ‘caused’ by climate change is the wrong question. All extreme weather events are now being influenced by climate change because they are occurring in a climate system that is hotter and moister than it was 50 years ago.”

Climate is an average of all weather events in a particular region. A change in climate is therefore a result of a change in the frequency and/or severity of weather events, and those changes are caused by numerous factors. Climate can therefore neither cause nor influence an extreme weather event, because it is always the result of other conditions and changes, and is a mathematical calculation of averages.

To calculate the 'global' average of climate is very 'challenging', to put it mildly. The 'science based' Working Group 1 part of the IPCC reports, tend to be more truthful than the summaries for politicians (or policy makers).

Consider the following projections for the 21st Century.
https://wg1.ipcc.ch/presentations/Sbsta_drought.pdf

"Projections of drought by 2100 in RCP8.5

• Low confidence in an observed global-scale trend in drought or dryness (lack of
rainfall) since the 1950s, due to lack of direct observations, methodological uncertainties and choice and geographical inconsistencies in the trends ;
High confidence that the frequency and intensity of drought since 1950 have likely increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa (although 1970s Sahel drought dominatesthe trend) and likely decreased in central North America and northwest Australia ;
Low confidence in attributing changes in drought over global land areas since the mid20th century to human influence owing to observational uncertainties and difficulties in distinguishing decadal-scale variability in drought from long-term trends ;
High confidence for droughts during the last millennium of greater magnitude and longer duration than those observed since the beginning of the 20th century in many regions."


Note, there is high confidence that drought frequency and intensity has decreased in Northwest Australia since 1950. Southern Australia in not mentioned in the above quote, but is included in the following IPCC report.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap25_FINAL.pdf

"Uncertainty in projected rainfall changes remains large for many parts of Australia and New Zealand, which creates significant challenges for adaptation. For example, projections for average annual runoff in far southeastern Australia range from little change to a 40% decline for 2°C global warming above current levels.

Some sectors in some locations have the potential to benefit from projected changes in climate and increasing atmospheric CO2 (high confidence). Examples include reduced winter mortality (low confidence), reduced energy demand for winter heating in New Zealand and southern parts of Australia, and forest growth in cooler regions except where soil nutrients or rainfall are limiting. Spring pasture growth in cooler regions would also increase and be beneficial for animal production if it can be utilized."


Yes, the science is definitely clear, about the general degree of uncertainty.  ;)
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1312 on: January 13, 2020, 11:25:25 pm »

A new study looking at the data from year 2019 and comparing it to the previous years provides more evidence that Earth is warming at an accelerated pace.

Quote
The world's oceans hit their warmest level in recorded history in 2019, according to a study published Monday that provides more evidence that Earth is warming at an accelerated pace. The analysis, which also found that ocean temperatures in the last decade have been the warmest on record, shows the impact of human-caused warming on the planet's oceans and suggests that sea-level rise, ocean acidification and extreme weather events could worsen as the oceans continue to absorb so much heat.

"The pace of warming has increased about 500 percent since the late 1980s," said one of the study's authors, John Abraham, a professor of thermal sciences at the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul, Minnesota. "The findings, to be honest, were not unexpected. Warming is continuing, it has accelerated, and it is unabated. Unless we do something significant and quickly, it's really dire news."

Abraham and his colleagues found that the rate of ocean warming accelerated from 1987 to 2019 to nearly 4½ times the rate of warming from 1955 to 1986.


https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/earth-s-oceans-are-hotter-ever-getting-warmer-faster-n1114811

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1313 on: January 14, 2020, 10:48:55 am »

Yes. The science is very clear that the climate system is complex, chaotic and non-linear, which obviously makes predictions of future climate very unreliable.

Strange conclusion, and very unscientific. One of the goals of science is to create a better understanding of complex issues.

That improved knowledge can be used to create models and, as Climate models have shown, with the right inputs they can give an excellent idea of what to expect. The models have been getting better as new knowledge was added, e.g. by better measurements. In fact, global warming caused by rising CO2 concentration from fossil-fuel burning and other combustion processes was already (correctly) predicted in 1896.

One way that science deals with complex processes is by creating Ensemble models. From those, statistical probabilities for different outcomes can be derived.

If only humans would take the logical steps based on such models, then the models would prove even more reliable ...
« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 10:52:23 am by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1314 on: January 14, 2020, 02:18:44 pm »

Is there divine justice in that Oz, as the world's biggest exporter of coal and gas, also gets the flames?

And is it coincidence that Ozzie Murdoch's media champions pyromaniacs as the cause of such fires rather than the result of man-made industrial and personal pollution and its effect on the natural order and equilibrium?

The fuzz has denied that it's got much to do with any outbreak of largely imaginary fire crazies, blaming whom seems to be one of that media conglomerate's diversionary tactics. Maybe the media has been bugging the pyromaniacs' telephones... buy hey, they wouldn't do that kind of thing, would they? Not bug anybody again, surely?

:-)

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1315 on: January 14, 2020, 06:38:12 pm »

Quote
Quote from: Ray on January 13, 2020, 07:41:54 pm
Yes. The science is very clear that the climate system is complex, chaotic and non-linear, which obviously makes predictions of future climate very unreliable.

Strange conclusion, and very unscientific. One of the goals of science is to create a better understanding of complex issues.

That's a very illogical and unscientific statement, Bart. A better understanding of chaotic and complex systems can result in a realization that they are more complex and chaotic that we originally thought.

An example is our increasing understanding of the expansion of the universe from the Big Bang about 14 billion years ago. We calculated the expansion was slowing down and predicted it would soon come to a halt. The universe would then begin contracting and collapse on itself.

However, as we extended our observations, via the Hubble telescope, to more distant galaxies, it became clear that the rate of expansion is accelerating. The explanation for this accelerating expansion is the anti-gravitational effect of Dark Matter and Dark Energy, which is currently invisible and undetectable. Furthermore, if the 'hypothesis' for the existence of Dark Matter and Energy is correct, it must exist in such large quantities that it represents around 95% of all the matter and energy in the universe.

Wow! After centuries of amazing scientific development we have reached the stage of being able to detect, with all our sophisticated instruments and devices, only 5% of the matter and energy that surrounds us.

I think this adds truth to the saying, 'The more we know, the more we realize how little we know'.
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John Camp

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1316 on: January 15, 2020, 12:09:20 am »

Yes. The science is very clear that the climate system is complex, chaotic and non-linear, which obviously makes predictions of future climate very unreliable.

I would disagree with that, Ray, though you are certainly right that the system is complex, chaotic and non-linear. As is a roulette wheel, for any one roll of the ball, which bounces, ricochets, and hops from one cup to the next. But with all that, the overall edge for the house (with a standard wheel and rules) is about 5.26%. And that's an extremely reliable 5.26%. So while any particular outcome in roulette or the weather is subject to all kinds of vagaries, the overall trend tends to be quite predictable -- perhaps not as much with climate as with roulette, but at this point, we have enough data to clearly discern a particular direction. We can't say that climate change means it'll be warmer in West Jesus, Texas, in particular, because of those complexities, but we can confidently say that Texas, over some longer period of time, will become warmer.

This is not easy stuff to get around. For example, some reasonably credible people have suggested that if it gets warm enough on earth as a whole, the melting of the Greenland glaciers may quicken to the point that a flood of cool, lighter (because fresh) water will enter the North Atlantic, floating on top of, and muffling the normal effect of the warm Gulf Stream. If that happens, Europe, which derives quite a bit of warmth from the Gulf Stream, could suffer a prolonged cold climate, until the flow of fresh water abates. (Europe is unusually warm because of the Gulf Stream -- it's useful to remember that Paris is about the same latitude as Winnipeg, Canada, and London is actually further north than Winnipeg.) A cooler Europe wouldn't mean that the earth as a whole is getting cooler, or that Europe will be permanently cool, it's that the cool weather there would be a product of the warmer earth.

I have some ideas about people who deny climate change, but it would be impolite to bring them up here, so I won't.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1317 on: January 15, 2020, 01:12:43 am »

How much should we spend to change the earth's climate assuming that's possible?  Where will the resources come from?  (The US is already running a trillion dollar annual deficit.)  How much money won;t be available for cancer research, feeding the poor, housing the homeless, providing medical care for the sick, inventing new life saving pharmaceuticals?  How many people who now have heating and other life's necessities will lose them or never obtain them if we outlaw fossil fuels?  How will you accomplish anything when China and India who don;t have to comply and don;t comply with Paris accord standards are contributing 37% of the CO2?  That's over a third of the total. 

You know, I;d like to have a chalet on the Riviera.  But if I had one I couldn't afford to eat. 

MurrayFoote

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1318 on: January 15, 2020, 03:08:26 am »

How much should we spend to change the earth's climate assuming that's possible?  Where will the resources come from?  (The US is already running a trillion dollar annual deficit.)  How much money won;t be available for cancer research, feeding the poor, housing the homeless, providing medical care for the sick, inventing new life saving pharmaceuticals?  How many people who now have heating and other life's necessities will lose them or never obtain them if we outlaw fossil fuels?  How will you accomplish anything when China and India who don;t have to comply and don;t comply with Paris accord standards are contributing 37% of the CO2?  That's over a third of the total. 

You know, I;d like to have a chalet on the Riviera.  But if I had one I couldn't afford to eat.
Some measures may actually bring efficiencies.  In any case the cost of doing nothing or even too little is likely to be greater than the cost of effective action.

The US has 17% of world population and 50% of world military expenditure.  There must be scope for saving there.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1319 on: January 15, 2020, 04:47:58 am »

How much should we spend to change the earth's climate assuming that's possible?  Where will the resources come from?

There is a lot of stupid art and bananas taped to the wall in various galleries purchased for millions of dollars. That money could be used more wisely for solar panels, cow fart bags or catching microplastics in the oceans.
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