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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 111654 times)

John Camp

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1120 on: December 07, 2019, 11:55:49 am »

When the modern age finally arrives, in the form of female-regulated birth control, the birth rate tends to decline. In Italy, once renowned for large families, the current birth rate is below replacement, as it is for the EU as a whole. (EU population growth, which is positive, comes from immigration.) It may come as a surprise to those who live in patriarchic societies, but women don't necessary enjoy having ten children.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1121 on: December 07, 2019, 12:22:23 pm »

Do you think that unrestricted population growth will solve all problems? That smells like a giant Ponzi scheme.
When did I say that?

Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1122 on: December 08, 2019, 04:47:55 am »

When the modern age finally arrives, in the form of female-regulated birth control, the birth rate tends to decline. In Italy, once renowned for large families, the current birth rate is below replacement, as it is for the EU as a whole. (EU population growth, which is positive, comes from immigration.) It may come as a surprise to those who live in patriarchic societies, but women don't necessary enjoy having ten children.


Do you think they even care about the women? A cow, goat or a camel may be held to be of greater value!

And immigration causing a balancing out in popuation numbers which, of course, means an increase in immigrant births and eventual ratio within the "host" country, is one dominant reason why people, apart from some politicos and their flock, are fearful of the change that that is going to make to the indigenous society. They need only go to a cowboy and indians movie to see it for themselves. Which of course, is where the Brexit crowd got it all wrong: they will only lessen the European immigrants, most of whom they wouldn't recognize as such if they were sitting opposite one another in a train.

Wish I was joking.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2019, 11:22:31 am by Rob C »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1123 on: December 10, 2019, 04:16:51 am »

Ah, that CO2:

Sydney smoke: Residents 'choking' on intense bushfire pollution https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50722650

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1124 on: December 10, 2019, 09:38:38 pm »

Australia is well-known as a land of droughts and floods. Attached image is of the centre of Brisbane city in 1893 during one of the greatest floods ever recorded in modern times, in this region.

The floods usually follow long periods of droughts. When the previous drought, known as the Millennium drought, ended in 2010-11, the rainfall was so massive that global sea levels stopped rising for 18 months because so much water was trapped in inland lakes, such as Lake Eyre, and absorbed into the dry earth and empty dams.

Proxy records from recent ice cores in the Antarctic suggest that most of Australia's worst droughts occurred during the Medieval Warm Period. The longest drought lasted 39 years, if the proxy records are reliable.

Since we are now in a warming period similar to the MWP, the risk of another 39 year drought during this century should be considered and planned for.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291167238_A_new_direction_for_Antarctic_ice_cores_reconstructing_Pacific_decadal_variability_and_Australian_drought_history_from_the_Law_Dome_ice_core

"This study shows that, similar to SW North America, Australia also experienced mega-droughts during the medieval period. Knowledge of the occurrence, duration and frequency of such mega-droughts will greatly improve drought risk assessment in Australia."

"Eight ‘mega-droughts’ (dry periods >5 years duration) were identified over the last millennium. Six mega-droughts occurred between AD 1000-1320 including one 39 y drought (AD 1174–1212)."


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Rob C

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1125 on: December 11, 2019, 11:32:33 am »

My goodness, Ray, that link is even more opaque than extreme Trump!

I did try, I promise!

;-)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1126 on: December 11, 2019, 11:55:55 am »

[...]
Since we are now in a warming period similar to the MWP, the risk of another 39 year drought during this century should be considered and planned for.

But the big difference is that this time around it is caused by humans, and nature (e.g. from ocean currents, plus global warming due to CO2 also creates more biomass as fuel for wildfires) can still add to that. And extreme weather is increasing, and it could persist for longer periods.

The particulate matter and other residuals are a healthhazard.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1127 on: December 11, 2019, 01:02:39 pm »

Trump for Chief Ranger.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1128 on: December 11, 2019, 01:24:40 pm »

Trump for Chief Ranger.

There is already plenty of hot air...
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1129 on: December 11, 2019, 05:38:53 pm »

But the big difference is that this time around it is caused by humans, and nature (e.g. from ocean currents, plus global warming due to CO2 also creates more biomass as fuel for wildfires) can still add to that. And extreme weather is increasing, and it could persist for longer periods.

The particulate matter and other residuals are a healthhazard.

Ah! You mean, if it weren't for mankind's contribution to climate change we'd still be in the Little Ice Age, which is preferable. Right?  ;)

I find it significant that 6 of the 8 mega droughts that have occurred in Australia during the past 1,000 years, occurred during the Medieval Warm Period, according to the study I linked. That suggests we haven't yet reached the warm temperatures experienced 800 to 1,000 years ago. Perhaps we never will, regardless of CO2 emissions.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1130 on: December 12, 2019, 07:41:02 am »

Ah! You mean, if it weren't for mankind's contribution to climate change we'd still be in the Little Ice Age, which is preferable. Right?  ;)

Wrong, again. :(

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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1131 on: December 12, 2019, 05:01:39 pm »

Wrong, again. :(

Very honest of you to admit you are wrong again.  ;)
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1132 on: December 13, 2019, 07:52:52 am »

A nice video on the issue of climate change, for those who like to watch Youtube videos instead of reading abstruse scientific research papers.  ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDOgWeTAas0
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1133 on: December 13, 2019, 08:45:24 am »

Some really interesting pictures in today's NY Times showing methane emissions from natural gas facilities in Texas.  Methane is one of the worst of the greenhouse gases as well as being a valuable source of energy.  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/12/climate/texas-methane-super-emitters.html shows how infrared photographer is used to document methane releases.  The energy industry is currently trying to weaken regulations governing the release of this gas.  Additionally, some energy companies are writing down gas producing assets because of the low price of natural gas (disclosure:  I'm a Chevron stockholder and the other day they took a $10 billion write down on gas fields in Appalachia.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1134 on: December 13, 2019, 11:13:55 am »

From my professor of Economics:

Quote
My reading of the evidence is that uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 is very high (putting aside the serious questions about validity of the underlying climate models). Moreover the models are running hot (predictions compared to actual, especially in the troposphere which is where the models suggest we should observe the most anthropogenic warming), which to this informal Bayesian suggests we give more confidence to sensitivity estimates on the lower end of the scale.

As an economist, I note that our very crude estimates suggest net benefits from some additional warming. The costs of most proposed measures are catastrophic (to borrow a term), especially for the world's poorest. Moreover mitigation is rarely proposed, though it is common (see the barrier they're now finishing in Venice, or Holland).

I see a lot of reasons to ask probing questions about these strong policy proposals; certainly to be far from sure that they are the right approach.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1135 on: December 13, 2019, 02:26:28 pm »

+1
Warmer weather has been benefiting man since the Ice Age ended.  Why wouldn't a little more warming continue to help?

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1136 on: December 13, 2019, 05:36:57 pm »

Warmer weather has been benefiting man since the Ice Age ended.  Why wouldn't a little more warming continue to help?

Not in the Arctic. Too warm for seal hunting, and not warm enough for growing weed.
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1137 on: December 13, 2019, 07:01:35 pm »

Adaption is the key, not hubristic control. If we want to prosper, we should exploit the benefits of a warmer climate, and the growth-enhancing higher CO2 levels, and manage the greater rainfall resulting from more evaporation, by building more dams and more long-distance water pipes. If only we were that sensible.  ;)
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1138 on: December 13, 2019, 07:25:14 pm »

Not in the Arctic. Too warm for seal hunting, and not warm enough for growing weed.
I'm in San Diego Diego California fir a few days with my wife.   Everywhere you walk,  you get a good whiff of marijuana.  Nobody here is waiting for global warming.

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1139 on: December 14, 2019, 09:39:25 pm »

I recently came across the following National Geographic article which addresses the issue of adaption to climate change. However, National Geographic tends to be pro-alarmist, so they haven't delved into the psychological complexities of tackling both issues of adaption and CO2 reduction simultaneously, although they agree both policies should be implemented.

As I see it, alarm or exaggeration is so frequently used throughout the history of humanity in order to control and motivate human behaviour. If describing the punishment for bad behaviour in this life, as horrible, eternal suffering in Hell after death, causes people to behave better in this life, then there is a justification for such assertions of eternal damnation, whether factual or not.

Likewise, if undeveloped countries in particular, but also some developed countries, do not use 'state-of-the-art' emission controls to reduce the levels of toxic emissions to negligible proportions, as is currently possible, then there is some justification in branding CO2 as a toxic emission which will cause devastating climate consequences, even though scientifically that is very uncertain.

We all want a clean atmosphere. CO2 is a clean and odorless gas, essential for all life, and the more the better, up to a certain point, of course. Drinking too much water can kill you.

The major problem, as I see it, is that the motivation for 'adaption' to climate change is in conflict with the motivation for reduction of CO2 emissions. The motivation for reduction of CO2 emissions relies upon the media creating the 'illusion' that all current extreme weather events are unprecedented and caused by rising CO2 levels.

The motivation for adaption would rely upon the media reporting that extreme weather events in the past have been as great or greater than current, 'so-called' record events, despite the lower concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere.

In other words, to galvanize the public, politically, to accept that we should spend billions of dollars in protecting ourselves from a repetition of previous extreme weather events that had nothing to do with human emissions of CO2, completely undermines the exaggerated narrative that all current extreme weather events are unprecedented, due to rising CO2 levels.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/01/communities-adapt-to-changing-climate-after-fires-floods-storms/

"The spotty nature of adaptation efforts so far can be seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael—where one reinforced, raised home famously survived, nearly alone, along Mexico Beach, Florida, after the strongest Panhandle hurricane in at least 155 years. In the Camp Fire that devastated Paradise, California, and killed 85 people, a sprinkling of houses built and maintained to withstand embers survived, but—again—were the rare exception."

"Another source of concern is accumulating research revealing patterns of extraordinarily extreme weather through the last several thousand years in places now heavily built and populated. Scientists dissecting cores of layered ancient marsh and lake mud and other clues to past climate conditions have revealed spasms of frequent, powerful hurricanes even in past cooler periods around Puerto Rico, extreme hill-scouring rainstorms in Vermont, and century-long megadroughts in Ghana—meaning calamities that might be perceived as “unprecedented” are in fact simply rare, and thus unmeasured, threats."
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