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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 49125 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #520 on: August 09, 2019, 09:43:14 am »

That, specifically, does not.  I think both sides would like to see the planet better, although much to my chagrin of fellow right of center comrades, I'll admit it is more so on the left then the right. 

What I have an issue with is all of the mis-information the left constantly puts out there about nuclear.  Even the latest HBO "documentary" on Chernobyl has been debunked by nearly all of the experts who were on ground, many of who were not Russian and have no reason to try and make the situation look better then it was.  The "documentary" purposely dramatized the events by implying the deaths were from nuclear exposure when most were caused by the fire and explosions.  They also made up characters that never existed and events that never took place, and contradicted the World Health Organization stats on the event. 

But most who watch this will just assume it was only dramatized a bit with most of it being true, and not doing any follow up research to see if that is the case.  It will become another China Syndrome in the minds of the public as yet another false reason to not have nuclear. 
Apparently it has not scared other countries from installing nuclear plants.  OK, China is dictatorial, but India, France and others aren't.  They have to deal more with the public as we do.  While I agree that many Americans are afraid of nuclear because of Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, the costs for nuclear have prohibited their further installation here in the US.  Alternative energies like natural gas and coal are cheaper to build.  Government subsidies of wind and solar don't help either.  I think if the cost became really competitive, we'd get over the "fear" and start developing nuclear again.

Of course, if the Democrats take over the government in 2020, all bets are off.  They'll probably subsidize wind and solar more than now making nuclear and fossil fuels even more expensive comparatively.   Get ready to see higher electric costs like Germany.

jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #521 on: August 09, 2019, 09:55:16 am »

HBO, Your Liberal Id Is Showing

HBO, Showtime Are Most Polarizing Entertainment Brands Among Democrats, Republicans

I mean seriously, one of the networks biggest prime time stars is Bill Maher.

I actually LOL'ed reading those links. Too funny.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #522 on: August 09, 2019, 09:57:52 am »

I actually LOL'ed reading those links. Too funny.

Okay, maybe those articles are a little more opinionated, but then again, which side of the isle you are on is a rather opinionated subject. 
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #523 on: August 09, 2019, 09:59:58 am »

To get back on topic:

Due to last month's heatwave, some 400 people are counted in my small country as excessive mortality (above the weekly summer average). There was also a clear pattern across the country, with increasingly more of that mortality in the provinces that were hotter than the others.

The number was higher than during last year's heatwave where mortality was 'only' increased by 100 per week.

Heatwaves like this one are happening 3x more frequently than in the last century, and going forward they are expected to occur every other year on average. According to meteorologists, the frequency of heatwaves would be about 100x less frequent without global warming.

Cheers,
Bart
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #524 on: August 09, 2019, 10:00:22 am »

One more thing to add about wind farms. 

We are discovering that when you have a very large wind farm, the turbines in the front of the farm (receiving the wind first) will eventually create a wind shadow of lower air density causing the turbines in the rear not to spin as fast.  This is something no one predicted and makes wind farms even less practical. 

No mind you the wind farm needs to be fairly large and deep for this to occur, but considering the trend is to make them bigger and deeper, it is a problem that will be more of an issue. 
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #525 on: August 09, 2019, 10:04:45 am »

To get back on topic:

Due to last month's heatwave, some 400 people are counted in my small country as excessive mortality (above the weekly summer average). There was also a clear pattern across the country, with increasingly more of that mortality in the provinces that were hotter than the others.

The number was higher than during last year's heatwave where mortality was 'only' increased by 100 per week.

Heatwaves like this one are happening 3x more frequently than in the last century, and going forward they are expected to occur every other year on average. According to meteorologists, the frequency of heatwaves would be about 100x less frequent without global warming.

Cheers,
Bart

Sad news indeed. 

This is something I thought of the other day while driving.  Since climate science is not an easy to follow field and one that relies on a lot of different measurements, getting the climate deniers to actually believe this heat wave was due to man made climate change I think is fruitless. 

I think a much better approach to try and convince many on the right to abandon fossil fuels would be to focus on the deaths caused by air pollution.  This is much more cut and dry and can't be denied (as easily).  Cutting fossil fuels to save people from deaths caused by their pollution should be reason enough to start decreasing our fossil fuel use. 
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #526 on: August 09, 2019, 10:19:01 am »

Sad news indeed. 

This is something I thought of the other day while driving.  Since climate science is not an easy to follow field and one that relies on a lot of different measurements, getting the climate deniers to actually believe this heat wave was due to man made climate change I think is fruitless. 

I think a much better approach to try and convince many on the right to abandon fossil fuels would be to focus on the deaths caused by air pollution.  This is much more cut and dry and can't be denied (as easily).  Cutting fossil fuels to save people from deaths caused by their pollution should be reason enough to start decreasing our fossil fuel use.

Yes, but they will deny it regardless (e.g. by only cherry-picking some more plant biomass caused by elevated CO2 levels), because it's inconvenient. The number 3 cause (after #1 cancer and #2 cardiovascular causes) of premature death in my country is air-polution (mostly Particulate Matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 micron, and UFP (ultra-fine particles and black carbon smaller than 0.1 microns).

I've taken my measures to at least keep the PM levels low inside the house, and in particular in the bedroom (where almost of 1/3rd of the time is spent).

Cheers,
Bart
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #527 on: August 09, 2019, 10:30:47 am »

So I feel the need to state that my post in the previous page had a major error in the calculation where I mixed up capacity with total volume of electricity produced.  Capacity is in GW and volume is in GWH, and they are not the same measurement.  I edited the post with the correct figures. 

In honesty, I really screwed the pooch on this one, and the actual amount of land required (assuming all wind farms are as efficient as the Alta Wind Energy Centre) is considerably less, about 0.3% of the state. 

As some who has studied physics in school, I should have realized the difference between these two measurements more readily.  I'm a little rusty I guess. 
« Last Edit: August 09, 2019, 10:36:11 am by JoeKitchen »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #528 on: August 09, 2019, 10:41:38 am »

Okay, maybe those articles are a little more opinionated, but then again, which side of the isle you are on is a rather opinionated subject. 
I think the issue is that every nature program has to have a statement of how man is destroying the environment and killing species.  It's like mandatory.  So regardless of where you watch it, HBO, PBS,CBS, etc. we get this constant drumbeat that "we're bad", we're screwing up the environment etc.  There's no balance.  It's all one-sided and very distorted.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #529 on: August 09, 2019, 10:43:02 am »

To get back on topic:

Due to last month's heatwave, some 400 people are counted in my small country as excessive mortality (above the weekly summer average). There was also a clear pattern across the country, with increasingly more of that mortality in the provinces that were hotter than the others.

The number was higher than during last year's heatwave where mortality was 'only' increased by 100 per week.

Heatwaves like this one are happening 3x more frequently than in the last century, and going forward they are expected to occur every other year on average. According to meteorologists, the frequency of heatwaves would be about 100x less frequent without global warming.

Cheers,
Bart
Sorry about the deaths.  But how many people will not die do to warmer winters? 

jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #530 on: August 09, 2019, 10:45:10 am »

I think the issue is that every nature program has to have a statement of how man is destroying the environment and killing species.  It's like mandatory.  So regardless of where you watch it, HBO, PBS,CBS, etc. we get this constant drumbeat that "we're bad", we're screwing up the environment etc.  There's no balance.  It's all one-sided and very distorted.

Yeah - let's hear it for all the positives of killing coral, starving polar bears etc etc etc
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #531 on: August 09, 2019, 10:46:18 am »

It's getting hot on all continents, maybe relatively more in north.

Quote
July 2019 now stands as Alaska’s hottest month on record, the latest benchmark in a long-term warming trend with ominous repercussions ranging from rapidly vanishing summer sea ice and melting glaciers to raging wildfires and deadly chaos for marine life.

July’s statewide average temperature rose to 58.1 degrees Fahrenheit (14.5 degrees Celsius), a level that for denizens of the Lower 48 states might seem cool enough but is actually 5.4 degrees above normal and nearly a full degree higher than Alaska’s previous record-hot month. More significantly, July was the 12th consecutive month in which average temperatures were above normal nearly every day, said Brian Brettschneider, a scientist with the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Of Alaska’s 10 warmest months on record, seven have now occurred since 2004.

“You can always have a random kind of warm month, season or even year,” Brettschneider said. “But when it happens year after year after year after year after year, then statistically it fails the test of randomness and it then becomes a trend.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alaksa-warming/alaskas-hottest-month-portends-transformation-into-unfrozen-state-idUSKCN1UZ110
« Last Edit: August 09, 2019, 10:51:21 am by LesPalenik »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #532 on: August 09, 2019, 10:47:02 am »

Yes, but they will deny it regardless (e.g. by only cherry-picking some more plant biomass caused by elevated CO2 levels), because it's inconvenient. The number 3 cause (after #1 cancer and #2 cardiovascular causes) of premature death in my country is air-polution (mostly Particulate Matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 micron, and UFP (ultra-fine particles and black carbon smaller than 0.1 microns).

I've taken my measures to at least keep the PM levels low inside the house, and in particular in the bedroom (where almost of 1/3rd of the time is spent).

Cheers,
Bart
People don't die from air pollution.  It's not a disease.  Can you elaborate?  What makes it number 3?

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #533 on: August 09, 2019, 10:57:04 am »

Yeah - let's hear it for all the positives of killing coral, starving polar bears etc etc etc
I didn't say there weren't negatives.  It's just that they only present negatives. 

Why can't we hear that since warming, there is now an additional area of land that grows grass and trees equal to twice the size of the US?  What about all the expansion of species and populations into that new area including farming?  Regarding killing of corals, why don't we read about the truth that coral is just moving into other areas which were colder before but now can support coral because the seas there are getting warmer?  Why don;t we hear that since CO2 levels are higher,  more food is being grown in the same land area to feed poor and starving people throughout the world. That would show an honest representation of what's happening.  Tell the full, truth not just part of it.  Of course, that would go against the party line that we're killing everything and destroying the earth.  I want to know all the facts.   Not just the facts that are convenient to the film producer's preconceived beliefs. 

LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #534 on: August 09, 2019, 10:59:23 am »

I’ll admit it gets more complicated to corrolate lower then expected drops in CO2 to wind/solar, but the ecological effects of killing birds and other animals are pretty easy to measure.  You just count the corpses.

Most likely, more birds get killed by pollution and changes in weather patterns than by the wind turbines.

Quote
Seabird carcasses are littering beaches in what has shaped up as the fifth consecutive year of large bird die-offs in Alaska.

High numbers of salmon, apparently overcome by the heat before getting the chance to spawn, have been found floating dead in rivers and streams around western Alaska.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alaksa-warming/alaskas-hottest-month-portends-transformation-into-unfrozen-state-idUSKCN1UZ110

JoeKitchen

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #535 on: August 09, 2019, 11:03:34 am »

Most likely, more birds get killed by pollution and changes in weather patterns than by the wind turbines.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alaksa-warming/alaskas-hottest-month-portends-transformation-into-unfrozen-state-idUSKCN1UZ110

I never said that I am not against fixing climate change, only that I don't think Wind/Solar will do it. 

Now I will admit that my egregious error in conflating capacity and volume produced a huge misconception in my mind of how many acres we would need of these things, I still feel that nuclear is a better alternative when it comes to protecting wild life. 
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jeremyrh

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #536 on: August 09, 2019, 11:08:00 am »

I didn't say there weren't negatives.  It's just that they only present negatives. 

Why can't we hear that since warming, there is now an additional area of land that grows grass and trees equal to twice the size of the US?  What about all the expansion of species and populations into that new area including farming?  Regarding killing of corals, why don't we read about the truth that coral is just moving into other areas which were colder before but now can support coral because the seas there are getting warmer?  Why don;t we hear that since CO2 levels are higher,  more food is being grown in the same land area to feed poor and starving people throughout the world. That would show an honest representation of what's happening.  Tell the full, truth not just part of it.  Of course, that would go against the party line that we're killing everything and destroying the earth.  I want to know all the facts.   Not just the facts that are convenient to the film producer's preconceived beliefs.

You're going to have to provide some support for all those claims if you want to be taken seriously - they look like you just invented a bunch of "facts" to support your ideological position.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #537 on: August 09, 2019, 11:12:36 am »

Sorry about the deaths.  But how many people will not die do to warmer winters?

Hard to say, the numbers are far too low for reliable statistics to begin with.

Most excess mortality in the winter periods, like in 2017/2018, is caused by influenza.
In 2017/2018 some 9444 more people died than expected in the 18 weeks during the epidemic of that winter.


Cheers,
Bart
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #538 on: August 09, 2019, 11:18:53 am »

Most likely, more birds get killed by pollution and changes in weather patterns than by the wind turbines.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alaksa-warming/alaskas-hottest-month-portends-transformation-into-unfrozen-state-idUSKCN1UZ110


Changes in population shifts with climate change as they have since time immemorial.  While some species might be affected negatively, others are positively affected. 

Also, warmer weather has increased species diversity and population.  Just compare the warmer Amazon region and to colder Alaska.  Even Canadians do better when it's warmer.  :)

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #539 on: August 09, 2019, 11:28:59 am »

You're going to have to provide some support for all those claims if you want to be taken seriously - they look like you just invented a bunch of "facts" to support your ideological position.

Here's one from NASA and Nature.  A clarification correction.  The area of two times the US that I mention in an earlier post  is not in physical land area but equal to that much more greenery if there was that much more land area.  So imagine that many more trees in the world that could grow on two USA's.  That's what the additional CO2 hs done.  Why don;t we read about this in popular culture?  God forbid if the public gets the wrong impression and thinks we're not such a bad species after all. 

"A quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands has shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on April 25.

An international team of 32 authors from 24 institutions in eight countries led the effort, which involved using satellite data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer instruments to help determine the leaf area index, or amount of leaf cover, over the planet’s vegetated regions. The greening represents an increase in leaves on plants and trees equivalent in area to two times the continental United States."

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2436/co2-is-making-earth-greenerfor-now/
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