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Author Topic: Extreme weather  (Read 49267 times)

Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1220 on: January 06, 2020, 11:00:55 pm »

If I read you correctly, you are saying that nothing here, today, is new.

Not quite. Within the average person's lifetime there's always something new. Unfortunately, this is the standard so often used for describing extreme weather events as 'unprecedented', that is, the worst in living memory, completely ignoring historical records that go back further than a lifetime.

Using this standard, it's logical that every person who has ever lived must have experienced an unprecedented extreme weather event of some type in their lifetime, whether flood, drought, heatwave, cyclone or forest fire.

Quote
Just for the sake if argument, let's assume you are correct. Does it not, nonetheless, make good sense for mankind to reduce all possible additional contributory actions that it can, simply in order not to add to the problems we face?

Of course it makes good sense, but in order to do that one must first be aware of the history of those extreme weather events that have had little to do with human activity in the past, and then be confident that such extreme weather events are getting worse, over time, and that the reason they are getting worse is due to specific human activities, such as human emissions of CO2.

For example, the city of Darwin in Northern Australia was devastated by a cyclone on Christmas day in 1974. This was before the alarm about CO2 emissions had become pervasive. Certain religious people claimed that the cause of the cyclone was a punishment by God for the city naming itself after Charles Darwin, that horrible atheistic character who demolished the Adam and Eve myth.  ;)

However, this area in Australia has a long history of cyclones, recorded since 1839. Refer attached article.
http://www.darwinstorms.com/cyclones/

The devastation caused by the 1974 Cyclone Tracy was greater than it should have been because past governments had ignored the obvious risk of a severe cyclone hitting the city, despite the historical record of cyclones in that area making it clear that there was a strong risk, and such governments had approved the construction of standard homes that were not designed to withstand the force of cyclones.

The initial reaction to the devastation was that the city of Darwin should be abandoned, and real estate prices plummeted as a consequence. However, someone then had the brilliant idea that it would be sensible to rebuild the city with a new and more robust building code that ensured all homes could withstand the force of a category 4 cyclone, such as Cyclone Tracy. This was done and I missed out becoming a multi-millionaire as property prices rebounded.  ;)
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1221 on: January 06, 2020, 11:09:28 pm »

David, American free speech is constitutionally protected.  It's been one of our cherished rights.  Nazis are allowed to march in the street.  Not because they get much support.  But the right to free speech is so constitutionally ingrained in most Americans, that we allow them their rights as perverted most believe they are.  The argument is that let the fresh air of sunlight be the cure.  Opposite thought is the sunlight.  Ideas should stand or not through debate and thought.  But we should not close down ideas just because you have different beliefs. Otherwise you can justify book burning and burning witches at the stake, something that is very common in the world.  It's a slippery slope once you start shutting down speech one side feels is offensive.  Pretty soon, political thought and religious practices are shut down and people are put in jail for their thinking.  All under the guise of some people just knowing what is right.

Well said, Alan.

Unlike the ever-unhelpful “Oh get a life, mate”

As before; condescending.

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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1222 on: January 07, 2020, 04:45:05 am »

Of course it makes good sense, but in order to do that one must first be aware of the history of those extreme weather events that have had little to do with human activity in the past, and then be confident that such extreme weather events are getting worse, over time, and that the reason they are getting worse is due to specific human activities, such as human emissions of CO2.

Just to make sure, do you think that CO2 emissions contribute to global warming?
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1223 on: January 07, 2020, 07:39:54 am »

Just to make sure, do you think that CO2 emissions contribute to global warming?
I believe from his past statements that it will lead to improved vegetation growth which is a net positive.
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Ray

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1224 on: January 07, 2020, 08:38:00 am »

Just to make sure, do you think that CO2 emissions contribute to global warming?

Everything is connected to some degree, and everything is subject to 'cause and effect'. Even Gautama Buddha understood this 2500 years ago.

However, it doesn't seem plausible to me that such tiny amounts of CO2 increases in the atmosphere, currently at 0.044% could have any significant 'bad' effect on climate.

The often quoted claim that 97% of all climatologist agree that human emissions of Greenhouse Gases are the main driver of the current warming, seems a deliberate misinterpretation of the facts for political purposes.

Most scientists in the field of climatology, and most scientists in general, are not willing to express an opinion either way. The 97% figure refers only to a minority of the peer-reviewed research papers examined, that mention in their 'abstract' a degree of certainty that CO2 or human activity is the main driver of the current warming. The other 3% of that minority reject that CO2 increases have any significant effect on climate.

The following article delves into this issue in some detail. For those too lazy to read it, look at attached image.  ;D
https://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/97_Consensus_Myth.pdf

« Last Edit: January 07, 2020, 08:45:48 am by Ray »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1225 on: January 07, 2020, 08:43:29 am »

Global warming is bad for the Florida winter tourist trade but good for manufacturers of snow making equipment.  Invest wisely.  :)

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1226 on: January 07, 2020, 08:50:11 am »

... The following article delves into this issue in some detail. For those too lazy to read it, look at attached image...

A great evil infographic.

“How dare you...”

 ;)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1227 on: January 07, 2020, 11:36:00 am »

Everything is connected to some degree, and everything is subject to 'cause and effect'. Even Gautama Buddha understood this 2500 years ago.

However, it doesn't seem plausible to me that such tiny amounts of CO2 increases in the atmosphere, currently at 0.044% could have any significant 'bad' effect on climate.

That position defies physics, and logic.

The fact that it's a small amount makes it an even more urgent issue. If such an amount can affect global warming to this extent, we shouldn't leave its emissions out of control.

BTW, if you deny that CO2 plays a significant role, then why does global temperature rise, more or less in line with CO2 emissions? It's not due to differences in orbit around the sun, so what is it then?
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1228 on: January 07, 2020, 11:49:17 am »

That position defies physics, and logic.

The fact that it's a small amount makes it an even more urgent issue. If such an amount can affect global warming to this extent, we shouldn't leave its emissions out of control.

BTW, if you deny that CO2 plays a significant role, then why does global temperature rise, more or less in line with CO2 emissions? It's not due to differences in orbit around the sun, so what is it then?
Every variable in the world is either going up, down or remaining the same.  The fact two things are going in the same direction is not proof that one is causing the other.  Most of these things are coincidental.  It just could be that nature declared it was time for temperature to go up as it has in the past.  So we look for reasons and see that CO2 is going up too.  Well, they may be causative and they may not be.  But you just can't assume they are.  You're science oriented and know that the way it works.  So you shouldn't use layman analysis.  You know better and are smarter than that Bart. 

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1229 on: January 07, 2020, 12:04:23 pm »

Every variable in the world is either going up, down or remaining the same.  The fact two things are going in the same direction is not proof that one is causing the other.  Most of these things are coincidental.  It just could be that nature declared it was time for temperature to go up as it has in the past.  So we look for reasons and see that CO2 is going up too.  Well, they may be causative and they may not be.  But you just can't assume they are.  You're science oriented and know that the way it works.  So you shouldn't use layman analysis.  You know better and are smarter than that Bart.

So predictable, and so wrong.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1230 on: January 07, 2020, 12:10:57 pm »

Every variable in the world is either going up, down or remaining the same.  The fact two things are going in the same direction is not proof that one is causing the other.  Most of these things are coincidental.  It just could be that nature declared it was time for temperature to go up as it has in the past.  So we look for reasons and see that CO2 is going up too.  Well, they may be causative and they may not be.  But you just can't assume they are.  You're science oriented and know that the way it works.  So you shouldn't use layman analysis.  You know better and are smarter than that Bart.

One thing is quite sure and very logical, and even you, Alan must agree with it. Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere can't help.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1231 on: January 07, 2020, 12:52:59 pm »

... BTW, if you deny that CO2 plays a significant role, then why does global temperature rise, more or less in line with CO2 emissions?...

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1232 on: January 07, 2020, 01:02:17 pm »

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LesPalenik

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1233 on: January 07, 2020, 01:16:30 pm »

correlation charts between cheese consumption and people dying entangled in their bed sheets


Obviously, it's not a good idea to eat cheese in the bed. Logical conclusion is to switch from cheese to tofu and eat it while standing.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2020, 02:21:39 pm by LesPalenik »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1234 on: January 07, 2020, 01:21:57 pm »

You're dodging the question.

I doubt you’d be happy with my answer: that's the way the cookie crumbles - that is, the stochastic nature of natural events.

The fact that I may or may not know the right answer doesn’t make your answer any more correct.

Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1235 on: January 07, 2020, 02:13:38 pm »


n
Thanks for providing the charts.  I was just telling my wife the other day when she wanted to switch from butter to margarine that it would be a bad idea. We might be contributing to global warming. Now you've given me the evidence I need to prove my case. Thank you.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1236 on: January 07, 2020, 02:50:55 pm »

I doubt you’d be happy with my answer: that's the way the cookie crumbles - that is, the stochastic nature of natural events.

The fact that I may or may not know the right answer doesn’t make your answer any more correct.

The physical properties of CO2 have been known since the middle of the 19th century. In 1896, (Nobel laureate) Svante Arrhenius calculated and concluded that human-caused CO2 emissions, from fossil-fuel burning and other combustion processes, are large enough to cause global warming.

Physics have not changed, and his predictions based on calculations have proven to be correct, the increased CO2 concentrations do lead to global warming.

So it has nothing to do with the stochastic nature of natural events, but instead is a demonstration of pure cause and effect, very predictable.
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1237 on: January 07, 2020, 07:04:00 pm »

However, it doesn't seem plausible to me that such tiny amounts of CO2 increases in the atmosphere, currently at 0.044% could have any significant 'bad' effect on climate.


No matter how skilled you are at making pretty charts with Photoshop, science is not a matter of opinion.

Ask the residents of Samoa, (or the rest of the idiot anti-vaxxers) who thought they knew more about immunology than does medical science.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1238 on: January 07, 2020, 07:16:46 pm »


No matter how skilled you are at making pretty charts with Photoshop, science is not a matter of opinion.

Ask the residents of Samoa, (or the rest of the idiot anti-vaxxers) who thought they knew more about immunology than does medical science.
Strawman.

faberryman

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Re: Extreme weather
« Reply #1239 on: January 07, 2020, 07:31:27 pm »

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