State of the camera market (mirrorless and otherwise)

[BAB]

My two cents all cameras could benefit from better glass, some cameras with better glass need better AF systems in the lens to move the elements (not sure market will pay for that) and all cameras can benefit from better design (that the biggest area for improvement) todays cameras have yesterdays design.
My guess is the $5000 threshold is binding progress at this point in time, with cameras in a $1000 smart phone the masses are satisfied with the images and posting crap on line.

[John Camp]

Given that the D850 is an outstanding camera, one wonders whether all of Nikon R&D will be oriented towards mirrorless cameras.  Can the D850 really be improved upon?

If the Z8 is a mirrorless 850, then the 850 *will* be improved upon -- the size alone will be a large improvement.

All I hear are *crickets* when I repeatedly bring this up, but I really think size is the critical dimension in new cameras. You [Alan] said in an earlier post that you had a D300 and didn't feel restricted by the 12mp sensor, and I've pretty much given up my D800 for a 21mp m4/3, so I don't see why people should really be enthralled by the prospect of a 60mp sensor, or a 50...or anything really above something in the 20s. (I mean, I know there are a few reasons, like having the wrong lens and having to zoom by cropping, but...don't have the wrong lens.) Maybe that's where this is headed, though: we'll all carry 100mp cameras with nothing but a short zoom, and then zoom with the otherwise pointless mp's.

[gkroeger]

My guess would be that we will see very few F mount lenses in the coming 2 years.

I will go Bernard one further... I think we will see very few new F mount lenses in any coming years. There will likely be a few "next version" of long fast glass for sports shooters, particularly with the 2020 Olympics, but aside from that, what else is really missing from the current Nikkor lineup. Nikon needs to sell bodies, and aside from a D6 and perhaps a D860, new bodies will be Z mount. Anyone anticipating a variety of new F mount lenses is likely to be very dissapointed.

[faberryman]

I will go Bernard one further... I think we will see very few new F mount lenses in any coming years. There will likely be a few "next version" of long fast glass for sports shooters, particularly with the 2020 Olympics, but aside from that, what else is really missing from the current Nikkor lineup. Nikon needs to sell bodies, and aside from a D6 and perhaps a D860, new bodies will be Z mount. Anyone anticipating a variety of new F mount lenses is likely to be very dissapointed.

They have been making F-mount lenses for 60 years. Where are the holes in the lineup?

[johnvanatta]

Slow, compact primes worthy of their sensors. All too easy

I agree that there won't be many F-mount lenses from here on out. For the next 2-3 years, Nikon critically needs to get Z lenses out, and they've publicly committed to doing so with the roadmap. Sure, it isn't legally binding, but it'd be severely embarrassing for them to not come pretty close to what they've promised.

And in 2-3 years, when they'd have the option to ease up a bit, mirrorless will have taken over current sales, and projections for a lens' ~8 year lifespan will be even more favorable to mirrorless. Why would they revert to legacy production then?

They're not going to say the quiet part--everyone rebuying their lens kits in Z mount is *great* for Nikon--aloud, but it's not too hard to imagine it said in headquarters meetings...

[Alan Goldhammer]

If the Z8 is a mirrorless 850, then the 850 *will* be improved upon -- the size alone will be a large improvement.

All I hear are *crickets* when I repeatedly bring this up, but I really think size is the critical dimension in new cameras. You [Alan] said in an earlier post that you had a D300 and didn't feel restricted by the 12mp sensor, and I've pretty much given up my D800 for a 21mp m4/3, so I don't see why people should really be enthralled by the prospect of a 60mp sensor, or a 50...or anything really above something in the 20s. (I mean, I know there are a few reasons, like having the wrong lens and having to zoom by cropping, but...don't have the wrong lens.) Maybe that's where this is headed, though: we'll all carry 100mp cameras with nothing but a short zoom, and then zoom with the otherwise pointless mp's.

Certainly for me size is a big consideration.  If I do go mirrorless, it would probably be with the Z6 as I don't see the need for the larger sensor of the Z7.  We still don't have any full service camera stores here in the Washington DC area so I don't have the opportunity to hold one of these models in my hand.  I really would like a lighter set for international travel than my D810. 

[Two23]

I really would like a lighter set for international travel than my D810.

I've been using a D5300 with Sigma 18-50mm f2.8 for exactly that.  It works very well.  If it were to get stolen or dropped over the edge of a waterfall I wouldn't cry nearly as much as if I had dropped a Z6.


Kent in SD

[Telecaster]

All I hear are *crickets* when I repeatedly bring this up, but I really think size is the critical dimension in new cameras.

You're not alone in this, particularly when extending size considerations to lenses as well as bodies. I posted the attached pic in another thread, helping to make the point. The Domke shoulder bag contains a GX8, my 24–600mm "equiv" travel lens kit and fits under an airplane seat. 

-Dave-

[BJL]

... I've pretty much given up my D800 for a 21mp m4/3, so I don't see why people should really be enthralled by the prospect of a 60mp sensor, or a 50...or anything really above something in the 20s. (I mean, I know there are a few reasons, like having the wrong lens and having to zoom by cropping, but...don't have the wrong lens.)

Agreed. I accept that some photographic niches require more detail than 645 color film ever gave (about 24-30MP?), but my feeling is that a great majority of even serious amateur and professional photographers do not have much need for more sensor pixels than mainstream formats (APS-C or even MFT) are now offering—or what the Z6 and other entry-level 35mm format cameras are offering.

Also, a close alternative to a 2X crop for increased reach is a 2X TC: same two-stop loss of speed, but better DR, as it takes the light that would go into the 2X crop, but spreads that light over the whole sensor.

I will however aim for about twice as many pixels on the sensor as I want on the final image, to allow for loose framing with erratically moving subjects like wildlife. But 20-24MP is already about there for me, going by 12MP after crop being fine for images viewed "normally": from a range where you are viewing the whole image, not "cropping with your feet" by standing too close.