Pages: 1 ... 16 17 [18] 19 20   Go Down

Author Topic: Trump III - the daily log  (Read 37811 times)

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18090
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #340 on: July 27, 2018, 07:40:18 pm »

... had you ...  actually viewed the video I posted, you'd see that all THREE speakers agree that most ... shouldn't get obsessed with quarterly numbers AND WHY.

Andrew, I do not need to watch YouTube to learn economics and WHY. I learned it the right way.

digitaldog

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 20651
  • Andrew Rodney
    • http://www.digitaldog.net/
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #341 on: July 27, 2018, 07:40:29 pm »

The red arrow points to the bottom under Obama, from which there was only up, and the growth rates surely would look more impressive from a low start.
Wrong, it could have gone done and didn't thanks in part to Obama.
This graph shows how it's very possible for GDP to be much lower than what you provided:
Logged
http://www.digitaldog.net/
Author "Color Management for Photographers".

digitaldog

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 20651
  • Andrew Rodney
    • http://www.digitaldog.net/
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #342 on: July 27, 2018, 07:40:54 pm »

Andrew, I do not need to watch YouTube to learn economics and WHY. I learned it the right way.
Sounds like very fake news to me, based on your graph posted alone! Or your 'idea' that GDP couldn’t go lower, only higher.

And it's NOT YouTube (you've got your facts wrong again).
« Last Edit: July 27, 2018, 07:44:22 pm by digitaldog »
Logged
http://www.digitaldog.net/
Author "Color Management for Photographers".

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #343 on: July 27, 2018, 07:45:30 pm »

Of course you don't. It would take too much time examining the data from others that might, might affect that confirmation bias/bubble you post from.

Meanwhile, nice of you to ignore that you were so wrong about who Hassett is and of course, the ridiculous, fake news, made up post you last made that his name wasn't indicted on the site I referenced. As we've seen, busted again or do you need more red arrows to adjust your attention. It appears that reality continues to ruin your life. But must you share that misery on others here in the process?
Me give you a summary? Please; I watched the video and then posted about it. Do I have to cut up your food before you chew it too?

I misread the caption.  I thought it said Velshi, Biden and Bernstein rather than Velshi, Hassert and Bernstein.  I hope my misread doesn't cause you heartburn.  You seem very agitated by my error.  Sorry again. 


"Watch Ali Velshi explain what the GDP is and why President Trump is so excited about it. Kevin Hassett, the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and Jared Bernstein, former chief economist to Vice President Joe Biden join the conversation to discuss trade, wages, interest rates and the growth of the GDP."

digitaldog

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 20651
  • Andrew Rodney
    • http://www.digitaldog.net/
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #344 on: July 27, 2018, 07:50:38 pm »

I misread the caption. 
Ain't that the truth!
Quote
I thought it said Velshi, Biden and Bernstein rather than Velshi, Hassert and Bernstein.
Yes, you were wrong, then decided to completely ignore the content because it's easier to burry one's head in the sand bubble. Sad.
Quote
I hope my misread doesn't cause you heartburn.  You seem very agitated by my error.  Sorry again.
All wrong; nothing makes me happier than pointing out your errors to your readers. I'm elated!  ;D
Quote
"Watch Ali Velshi explain what the GDP is and why President Trump is so excited about it. Kevin Hassett, the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and Jared Bernstein, former chief economist to Vice President Joe Biden join the conversation to discuss trade, wages, interest rates and the growth of the GDP."
Perhaps this would make you happier and provide a reason not to spend a mere 15 minutes educating yourself from the guy who works for Trump?


"Watch Ali Velshi explain what the GDP is and why President Trump is so excited about it. Kevin Hassett, the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and Jared Bernstein, former chief economist to Vice President Joe Biden join the conversation to discuss trade, wages, interest rates and the growth of the GDP so if you reside in the unreality bubble, don't watch!"
Logged
http://www.digitaldog.net/
Author "Color Management for Photographers".

Farmer

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2848
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #345 on: July 27, 2018, 07:56:44 pm »

I'll use the same graph once again. The red arrow points to the bottom under Obama, from which there was only up, and the growth rates surely would look more impressive from a low start.

That's nonsense.  There is no support for your starting premise (that the only way was up).  A bottom in economic growth doesn't occur because there's no where to fall unless the economy has actually collapsed and has zero value.  It bottoms out because growth increased - that's all.  That -2.78% wasn't a magical barrier that couldn't go lower.

A previous negative growth rate doesn't mean that a small positive change looks bigger than a small positive change from a previous positive growth rate.

Let's say the change in growth rate is 0.5%.

If you start at -2.5% you change to -2.0%.  If you start at +2.5% you change to 3.0%.  How has starting low helped?  You've stil just changed by 0.5%
Logged
Phil Brown

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #346 on: July 27, 2018, 07:57:58 pm »

Ain't that the truth! Yes, you were wrong, then decided to completely ignore the content because it's easier to burry one's head in the sand bubble. Sad. All wrong; nothing makes me happier than pointing out your errors to your readers. I'm elated!  ;D Perhaps this would make you happier and provide a reason not to spend a mere 15 minutes educating yourself from the guy who works for Trump?


"Watch Ali Velshi explain what the GDP is and why President Trump is so excited about it. Kevin Hassett, the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and Jared Bernstein, former chief economist to Vice President Joe Biden join the conversation to discuss trade, wages, interest rates and the growth of the GDP so if you reside in the unreality bubble, don't watch!"

Well, that's great.  I see you've turned it around and are feeling better.  Have a terrific night.

digitaldog

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 20651
  • Andrew Rodney
    • http://www.digitaldog.net/
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #347 on: July 27, 2018, 07:58:28 pm »

That's nonsense.  There is no support for your starting premise (that the only way was up).
+1
However, keep in mind, this fellow knows more about economics than all the economists. Or the generals etc.  ??? 
Logged
http://www.digitaldog.net/
Author "Color Management for Photographers".

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #348 on: July 27, 2018, 08:01:46 pm »

That's nonsense.  There is no support for your starting premise (that the only way was up).  A bottom in economic growth doesn't occur because there's no where to fall unless the economy has actually collapsed and has zero value.  It bottoms out because growth increased - that's all.  That -2.78% wasn't a magical barrier that couldn't go lower.

A previous negative growth rate doesn't mean that a small positive change looks bigger than a small positive change from a previous positive growth rate.

Let's say the change in growth rate is 0.5%.

If you start at -2.5% you change to -2.0%.  If you start at +2.5% you change to 3.0%.  How has starting low helped?  You've stil just changed by 0.5%

At the time when the market was at its lowest. I thought exactly what you said.  What if it goes lower?  So I avoided investing and missed the biggest boom in history.  I'm still beating myself up for that blunder. 

digitaldog

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 20651
  • Andrew Rodney
    • http://www.digitaldog.net/
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #349 on: July 27, 2018, 08:02:02 pm »

Well, that's great.  I see you've turned it around and are feeling better.  Have a terrific night.
No, you haven’t seen that. Another figment of your imagination. I'm having a very terrific night like my terrific day pointing out to others, the silliness we hear on this forum. This is classic and thank dog it's here as a record of 'how your mind works":
Logged
http://www.digitaldog.net/
Author "Color Management for Photographers".

digitaldog

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 20651
  • Andrew Rodney
    • http://www.digitaldog.net/
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #350 on: July 27, 2018, 08:03:38 pm »

I'm still beating myself up for that blunder.
Some are here to help you with those effort(s)!  ;)
Logged
http://www.digitaldog.net/
Author "Color Management for Photographers".

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #351 on: July 27, 2018, 08:45:12 pm »

Well, I gave up my 15 minutes of fame to see the 15 minute video in question.  Thanks Andrew for recommending it.  Hassett predicted 3.1% growth for this year vs. Bernstein's 2.5% although Hassett felt there's a good possibility it will be higher.  Both agreed that quarterly numbers bounce a lot.  They argued over how much the president effects the economy.  Hassett is very positive about the future.    There was one interesting response by Bernstein to Ali's question of why incomes aren't growing.  Typically for a liberal, he blamed "income inequality" which smacks of socialism.  He blamed standard economic forces that  make up a free market.  I think the video actually lasted 13 minutes.  So I still have 2 minutes left of my 15 minutes of fame. 

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18090
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #352 on: July 27, 2018, 09:13:20 pm »

... It bottoms out because growth increased - that's all...

Of course, but once it bottoms, the only way is up (it is a truism, as if it goes further down, it hasn't bottomed).

Unless economies go Venezuelan way, and the US economy is (and was) far from that, recessions happen, economy bottoms, and the next stage is recovery and reaching and surpassing previsos highs. That's why after a recession the only way is up.

P.S. I do not appreciate dismissing my point of view as "nonsense." We might disagree or see things from a different perspective, but I do not recall calling yours "nonsense."

Farmer

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2848
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #353 on: July 27, 2018, 11:56:57 pm »

At the time when the market was at its lowest. I thought exactly what you said.  What if it goes lower?  So I avoided investing and missed the biggest boom in history.  I'm still beating myself up for that blunder.

You shouldn't.  There was no way anyone could accurately predict the exact bottom because, as I said, there is no magical barrier or bottom short of the economy reaching zero value.  You could have easily picked up part way through the rebound, though (and perhaps you did).  Personally, I rode it out and then have invested more once the rebound was clear and then continued along (which is what most people did, of course, nothing special on my part).
Logged
Phil Brown

Farmer

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2848
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #354 on: July 28, 2018, 12:25:47 am »

Of course, but once it bottoms, the only way is up (it is a truism, as if it goes further down, it hasn't bottomed).

But it's only up until it goes down again.  That it continued to rally and improve is key and underscores the point that it wasn't simply a matter of there being no other possible outcome.  It could have easily crashed again or the growth could have been far more subdued.

There is no logical basis for your premise.

Unless economies go Venezuelan way, and the US economy is (and was) far from that, recessions happen, economy bottoms, and the next stage is recovery and reaching and surpassing previsos highs. That's why after a recession the only way is up.

They don't have to rebound and a bottom can be a temporary stop.  It's not a case of laissez-faire - active fiscal policy from government and monetary policy from central banks is key.  Again, your premise that it couldn't have gone further down when Obama took over, or during his terms, makes no sense.

From 1973 to 1974, the US economy experienced a 6.16% (compared to the global average of 4.58%) drop in growth - the following year it picked up by 0.5%.  The next year it rebounded 5.41%.  The following year it dropped 0.78% and then the next year it rebounded 0.95% before crashing 5.8%.  It then rebounded 2.83% and everyone thought it had recovered from having bottomed out.  Then it crashed 4.5% back into negative growth again.  So, the "bottom" wasn't real.  It then rebounded a massive 6.54% following by another 2.63% (1983 and 1984).  The alternating years of boom and "bust" continued until '88 which lead to the 3 consecutive years of decline into 1991 (the last time Australia went into recession.  Three consecutive years of falling growth - that really puts paid to the idea that from the bottom, the only way is up, regardless of tortured logic that once something goes up it can't be going down.

There are no bottoms at which nothing else can get worse.  During Obama's time growth fluctuated within a stable range of 1.36% from highest to lowest) following the recovery from 2009's low.  Stable performance with growth sustained over the long term is the target and what his administrations delivered.

P.S. I do not appreciate dismissing my point of view as "nonsense." We might disagree or see things from a different perspective, but I do not recall calling yours "nonsense."

But you're OK calling Hillary names because "it's true"?  Your premise was wrong and shown to be.  You've stuck to it and I've shown several times why it doesn't make sense.  That is the very definition of nonsense.  It's not a difference of perspective, Slobo.  This is not "alt-logic" or "alt-facts" or "alt-write (the new name for grammar-#$%^'s (I'm not sure Jeremy will allow that term, so alt-write will remain!))".  You're wrong, and maintaining your view in the face of clear demonstration to the contrary is nonsensical.

And, for what it's worth, you've frequently referred to views and opinions that I share (and which you would know that I share because you've read me saying so), in far more disparaging terms than calling them nonsense.  You are not excused of name-calling or abuse by virtue of casting the net wide.  There may be two sides to a coin, but in a game of heads or tails, only one is right.
Logged
Phil Brown

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18090
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #355 on: July 28, 2018, 01:23:15 am »

Quote
There may be two sides to a coin, but in a game of heads or tails, only one is right.

In a game of heads or tails, there is no right or wrong, just randomness.

On a side note, duly noted that gloves are off.

Farmer

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2848
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #356 on: July 28, 2018, 02:10:52 am »

In a game of heads or tails, there is no right or wrong, just randomness.

On a side note, duly noted that gloves are off.

There is right or wrong.  If I call heads and it lands tails, I'm wrong.

What's with the newfound penchant for the dramatic?  The gloves are off?  “A sentence is but a cheveril glove to a good wit. How quickly the wrong side may be turned outward.”

It never ceases to amuse me how often it is those who decry a lack of free speech who are first to harangue those who employ it against them.  If I'm wrong in my assessment, demonstrate it.  Show that your premise is reasonable in the face of evidence to the contrary, or show that you accepted the correction and did not continue to push a logical syllogism based on an untrue proposition.  I'll then gladly acknowledge my error and apologise for my incorrect description.

In the meantime, bare knuckle me as you wish - I'm sure I'll find it unbarable.
Logged
Phil Brown

Manoli

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2299
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #357 on: July 28, 2018, 02:45:52 am »

On a side note, duly noted that gloves are off.

Reasoned argument welcome, trolling less so. If you want to make it personal take it ‘outside’.
Logged

Schewe

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6229
    • http:www.schewephoto.com
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #358 on: July 28, 2018, 03:00:24 am »

And now a little humor?

Those nasty crazy liberals strike again!



Prankster puts Putin portrait in Colorado Capitol where Trump's portrait would be

Quote
For a brief time on Thursday, a portrait of Russian President Vladimir Putin was on display in Colorado's Capitol building in a space designated for President Trump’s portrait.

The portrait of Putin was reportedly put up on an easel on Capitol’s wall of presidential portraits by an unknown prankster. It was later taken down by a tour guide, according to Denver NBC affiliate, 9News.

Before the portrait was removed, however, Colorado State Sen. Steve Fenberg (D) shared a photo of the display on Twitter.

Quote
Steve Fenberg
@SteveFenberg

 As seen in the Colorado State Capitol Hall of Presidential Portraits today...#putinpotus
2:06 PM - Jul 26, 2018

1,183   704 people are talking about this

The spot, which is designated for Trump’s portrait, is reportedly blank due to a lack of donations made to the Colorado Citizens for Culture. The group is tasked with collecting donations for presidential portraits to be commissioned and placed in the Capitol.

Hum...18 months on and the Colorado Citizens for Culture are showing their true colors...


And then there was this in Hollyweird!

Two men in Russian Army uniform guard Trump’s Hollywood Star after it was destroyed with a pickax



Quote
Earlier this week, a man took to desecrating Donald Trump’s Hollywood Star with a pickax—he didn’t like the illegitimate president.

James Clay was arrested and charged with a felony. His bail of $20,000 was reportedly paid by a James Otis. A GoFundMe page was also created for Clay for legal fees.

Some hailed Clay, others were disgusted. Either way, Trump gets a new star, but what’s to keep another anti-Trump activist from destroying the new star? Perhaps these two ‘Russian soldiers’ will keep it safe.

On Friday two men dressed in Russian military garb stood stoically holding a Russian flag over Trump’s new star.

Wow, considering the highs today were expected in the upper 80's. these are two dedicated guards!

Those are really hot looking coats!
Logged

Schewe

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6229
    • http:www.schewephoto.com
Re: Trump III - the daily log
« Reply #359 on: July 28, 2018, 03:14:59 am »

Why can't you acknowledge Rachel Maddow again lied about Trump and got caught?  MSNBC- more fake news.

Well, how about some "good news"...

WH Adds Putin Admission That He Wanted Trump To Win To Official Transcript

Quote
The White House has updated its official transcript of the press conference between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to show that Putin admitted to a reporter that he did want Trump to win the 2016 election.

The key exchange was originally omitted from the original transcript, which the White House chalked up to muffled audio recording error, not a “malicious” attempt to hide Putin’s admission.

During the press conference last week, Jeff Mason from Reuters was chosen to ask Putin and Trump questions. He initially asked Trump about the decline in U.S.-Russia relations and Putin about his country’s interference in the 2016 election. He ended by asking Putin directly “did you want President Trump to win the election?  And did you direct any of your officials to help him do that?”

“Yes, I did.  Yes, I did.  Because he talked about bringing the U.S.-Russia relationship back to normal,” Putin responded.

[...]


Reporters first noticed the omission earlier this week and MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow even opened her show Tuesday night, suggesting the missing text was glaringly intentional.

The White House denied that the omission was “malicious,” although nobody had claimed malice.  The claim was that it was done intentionally.  This, the White House did NOT deny.

Well, anyway, the records have been corrected for history...too bad we don't have time travel so we could go back in time and fix stuff (or an undo button)
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 16 17 [18] 19 20   Go Up