The Great Mexican Wall

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... "Noel Cintron, 59, who said he served as Trump’s driver for more than 20 years, alleges that Trump did not pay him the time-and-a-half overtime wages required under New York state law. Instead, he was paid a flat yearly salary, which was set at $62,700 about 2003 and rose to $75,000 in 2010, according to his suit...

It’s been a while since I paid close attention to this specific category of labor laws, so this is based on my memory:

Wouldn’t the sheer salary level place the driver in the “exempt” category? That is, category of employees exempt from the 1.5x overtime requirement, actually ANY overtime?

One of my beefs with Obama was for not raising the threshold for the exempt category, one of the surest ways, imho, to help middle class. The threshold remains unchanged since the 70s (again, my memory). It is possible, however, and please correct me if so, that Obama did raise that threshold ultimately in the last year (blame my memory).

I surely never got any overtime, even when working 80-hour weeks at times.

[degrub]

job classification, not salary level, had more to do with the exempt/non-exempt determination. i know several diving welders that make over 200,000 USD per year. They get paid overtime at 1.5x.

[Alan Goldhammer]

It’s been a while since I paid close attention to this specific category of labor laws, so this is based on my memory:

Wouldn’t the sheer salary level place the driver in the “exempt” category? That is, category of employees exempt from the 1.5x overtime requirement, actually ANY overtime?

One of my beefs with Obama was for not raising the threshold for the exempt category, one of the surest ways, imho, to help middle class. The threshold remains unchanged since the 70s (again, my memory). It is possible, however, and please correct me if so, that Obama did raise that threshold ultimately in the last year (blame my memory).

I surely never got any overtime, even when working 80-hour weeks at times.

This may be specific to New York state and of course it's a frivolous lawsuit (bet you never thought I would say that!!!).  I also never received any overtime at any of the jobs I had and as with you there were often times when we had to work 80+ hours a week.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

job classification, not salary level, had more to do with the exempt/non-exempt determination. i know several diving welders that make over 200,000 USD per year. They get paid overtime at 1.5x.

Possibly job classification plays a role, but I am 100% certain there is a salary level too. It is possible that the base welder salary is bellow the threshold, say $50K, and the rest is overtime.

[Alan Goldhammer]

Possibly job classification plays a role, but I am 100% certain there is a salary level too. It is possible that the base welder salary is bellow the threshold, say $50K, and the rest is overtime.

We were invited by friends to the Washington Nationals (baseball) game last Saturday night.   My friend has season tickets and has a good relationship with one of the vendors who sells cold drinks and peanuts during the game.  He asked him how the business works.  He pays up front for the beverages and peanuts and keeps the proceeds from the sales including any tips he receives.  He didn't say what his cut was from the beverage sales but did say that he usually nets $900 a night.  He also works up at the Baltimore stadium for the Orioles on nights when the Nationals are out of town.  If he does the 81 home games in Washington that works out to over $70K; add in the income from Baltimore and that's a good amount of money for just over six months work.  I'm sure that the income from sales get reported to the IRS but the tips do not.

[Rob C]

As an ex one-man business (usually without his dog), I have no surprise to express at long working days, or days and nights in sequenced, sleep-deprived high.

Most folks have no concept of what it means to do your own thing and try to keep everybody you depend upon happy.

Would I do it again? I don't really know - my personal jury is still out. Thank goodness that's just academic today.

[Alan Goldhammer]

Earlier on this thread there were several comments about non-factual news (I don't like the term 'Fake News').  The good folks at the Washington Post have dissected President Trump's speech in Montana last week and found that 76% of the claims were false, misleading, or lacking in evidence.  The complete list is published HERE.  Apologies to those who either don't have a WaPo subscription or have used up their quota of free articles for the month. 

Here is the beginning of the article,

"We’re doing something new: analyzing every factual claim from President Trump’s campaign rally in Montana on Thursday.  According to The Fact Checker’s database, the president had made 3,251 false or misleading claims at the end of May, and his average daily rate was climbing.  This side of Trump really comes alive during campaign rallies, so we wanted to do the math and find out whether the president speaks more fictions or facts in front of his crowds.

We focused only on Trump’s statements of material fact at the Montana rally, avoiding trivialities and opinions. We didn’t double-count statements when the president repeated himself.  According to our analysis, the truth took a beating in Montana. From a grand total of 98 factual statements we identified, 76 percent were false, misleading or unsupported by evidence."

Now some of you may say that everyone does this and of course that is correct.  I don't believe we have ever seen exaggerations (I'm being charitable here) emerge from a President's mouth in this quantity in my lifetime.

[Alan Klein]

Earlier on this thread there were several comments about non-factual news (I don't like the term 'Fake News').  The good folks at the Washington Post have dissected President Trump's speech in Montana last week and found that 76% of the claims were false, misleading, or lacking in evidence.  The complete list is published HERE.  Apologies to those who either don't have a WaPo subscription or have used up their quota of free articles for the month. 

Here is the beginning of the article,

"We’re doing something new: analyzing every factual claim from President Trump’s campaign rally in Montana on Thursday.  According to The Fact Checker’s database, the president had made 3,251 false or misleading claims at the end of May, and his average daily rate was climbing.  This side of Trump really comes alive during campaign rallies, so we wanted to do the math and find out whether the president speaks more fictions or facts in front of his crowds.

We focused only on Trump’s statements of material fact at the Montana rally, avoiding trivialities and opinions. We didn’t double-count statements when the president repeated himself.  According to our analysis, the truth took a beating in Montana. From a grand total of 98 factual statements we identified, 76 percent were false, misleading or unsupported by evidence."

Now some of you may say that everyone does this and of course that is correct.  I don't believe we have ever seen exaggerations (I'm being charitable here) emerge from a President's mouth in this quantity in my lifetime.

The WP can't see the forest through the trees.  That's because they're blinded by Trump and are only concerned with damaging him. 

No one cares about his hyperbolic salesmanship and marketing strategies.  His supporters care about results and that he's keeping his word and being truthful to his pre-election policy objectives.  That's where the WP should be analyzing what he's doing.  But then, they'll have to admit he does tell the truth.  That he is getting things done.  Here are promises made during the election that he's kept or keeping:

1. He said he would pick justices for the supreme court from a list of 25 furnished before the election.  He's done that appointing one (Gorsuch) and nominating a second (Kavanaugh).

2.  He would increase military spending (Done)

3. He would approve the XL pipeline from Canada. (Done)

4.  He would pull out of Paris (Done)

5. Decrease taxes and pass a new tax bill (Done- although I'm one of those who's paying more)

6. Get NATO countries in pay more for their military.  (Working on it)

7. Defeat Obamacare (tax penalty removed but Obamacare still in effect due to no action from Congress)

8. Reduce regulations (A lot done.  More to go)

9. Straighten out the trade imbalances (Working on it)

10. Develop better relations with Russia (working in it but held up by Mueller and the dark state)

11. Stop illegal immigration (Working on it but needs help from COngress).

12. Stop immigrants who want to hurt the USA. (passed presidential order approved by SCOTUS)

13. Open up more off-shore drilling. (Done)


14.  Reverse Monuments (Done reducing the size of them-Big Ears and Grand Staircase Escalante)


He's telling the truth regarding his campaign promises.  That's what people care about not how big he claims his hands are, or the size of his rallies.  By wasting time with their "gotcha" analyses, the WP just shows how petty they are.  WP followers cheer them on missing the big picture.  In the meanwhile, Trump could turn out to be the most consequential president since Reagan and embarrass all those fake, conservative Republican neo-cons and fellow travelers the WP hires to write "nyah, nyah" articles against him. 

[RSL]

Great list, Alan. All that's quite true. But you're spinning your wheels. Neither the WP, nor the people who push WP-style BS care about any of that. What they care about is RESISTANCE! They want Hillary to have won, and they're gonna bang their heads against the wall, stamp their feet, and yell until Trump's outta there and Hillary (or her clone) is in. The mid-term election is gonna be a prime indicator of whether or not they're making progress. I think they're sliding down the hill, but at this point who knows?

[Alan Klein]

Great list, Alan. All that's quite true. But you're spinning your wheels. Neither the WP, nor the people who push WP-style BS care about any of that. What they care about is RESISTANCE! They want Hillary to have won, and they're gonna bang their heads against the wall, stamp their feet, and yell until Trump's outta there and Hillary (or her clone) is in. The mid-term election is gonna be a prime indicator of whether or not they're making progress. I think they're sliding down the hill, but at this point who knows?

Unfortunately I think it is helping Democrats.  Most people don't have time to read anything but headlines.  So attacks work and anti-Trump biased media overwhelms the air waves.  MAybe ads during the midterms elections will make a difference.  They have to show what he's accomplished.  As a marketing guy, I'm surprised he hasn't done this.  WEll, he has with tweets.  Without them, he'd never get out his point of view. 

Oh, another promise he made:

15. Defeat ISIS  (done except for a few rump elements)

[Alan Goldhammer]

Yes, you published a nice list but there are nuances that you missed to some of them.

1. He said he would pick justices for the supreme court from a list of 25 furnished before the election.  He's done that appointing one (Gorsuch) and nominating a second (Kavanaugh).

Do you have any documentation for this?

2.  He would increase military spending (Done)

Every President I've ever known has increased military spending so this really doesn't count for much.  Also he promised to get the US out of Iraq and Afghanistan which has not happened.  He also continued the faulty Obama strategy of letting Russia control Syria.

3. He would approve the XL pipeline from Canada. (Done)

Yes, and he's said it's going to create a lot of new jobs which is patently false.  It's also likely not to be used much as fracking is displacing the need for oil from the tar sands in Alberta which was the reason for the pipeline to begin with.  I suspect in the long run it won't be used much

5. Decrease taxes and pass a new tax bill (Done- although I'm one of those who's paying more)

He also promised to end the carried interest loophole for hedge fund managers which he clearly did not do.  He also said that tax "reform" would hurt him personally and there is zero evidence that is true since most of the real estate deductions are still on the books.   I am also paying more in taxes.

7. Defeat Obamacare (tax penalty removed but Obamacare still in effect due to no action from Congress)

You must have missed the article this week that the Administration is not going to reimburse insurers because of high incurred costs.  This will do more to drive them out of the ACA marketplace than anything else.  I'm thankful that my two daughters, formerly on ACA policies, are no longer independent workers and are getting taxpayer subsidized insurance from their employers (another pet peeve of mine was they should have eliminated the business deduction for employee health insurance and cleaned up the tax code).

9. Straighten out the trade imbalances (Working on it)

Other than the two loony tune economists who work for the Administration, I know of no mainstream economists that think what he is doing will solve anything at all.  Soybean prices are rock bottom and I wonder if the farmers will come begging for a bail out when China shifts their purchases to Brazil.

10. Develop better relations with Russia (working in it but held up by Mueller and the dark state)

Seriously, is this something to be proud of?  Here is a country that is doing so much bad stuff it's not even funny.  How about the poisonings that took place in England recently?  Syria? Ukraine?  Russian attempts to sabotage elections in the US and England?  If this is the kind of friend you want, good luck.  Also, please point out to me how the "dark state" what ever that is is involved.

13. Open up more off-shore drilling. (Done)

I wouldn't say this is done.  Point to me one state on the Eastern Seaboard that is going to allow offshore oil drilling.  Even the really Republican governors are against this one.


14.  Reverse Monuments (Done reducing the size of them-Big Ears and Grand Staircase Escalante)


I don't think this was a campaign promise but could be wrong.

He's telling the truth regarding his campaign promises.
 
He also said that he would be a top job creator and yet the statistics still show job growth has not been any greater than that of Obama's second term once we got out of the great recession.  Even Carter and Clinton saw greater job creation in their first term than we are seeing right now.  If some of this money coming back into the country from overseas corporate holdings went to increased salaries for workers, I might cut Trump a break but that's not happening at all.  We are seeing stock buy backs and dividend payouts but that's it.  It's fine for upper 2% of the population but I don't think that is Trump's entire base.

I would also give Trump major credit were he to do something as ambitious as infrastructure but he has shown little interest in fixing the roads and bridges here in the US.

In total, he has done very little other than the tax bill which he signed and did not get involved in as he hinted he would during the campaign.  It looks like he will get his second Supreme Court justice approved but if Congress were ever to do its job correctly the Supreme Court becomes unnecessary.

[Alan Klein]

You're arguing against his policies.  I didn't say you should like them.  You're complaining about "nuances".  All distinctions without differences.  Of course nothing's perfect.  But the point is that he told the truth to his supporters and is following through on his campaign promises. 


I just heard that he's adding another $200 billion to his tariffs on Chinese goods.  I'm sure he's doing that also as a signal to the EU and NATO countries before his trip to Europe.  Next is a tariff on German cars.  Was he going to add tariffs to the Japanese cars too?    I better hurry up and get that new Acura my wife wants or I'll have to buy a Ford. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

10. Develop better relations with Russia (working in it but held up by Mueller and the dark state)

Seriously, is this something to be proud of? ...

Yes. We currently have one common enemy.

[James Clark]

Yes. We currently have one common enemy.

Western Europe??

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Western Europe??

Close, but no cigar

[James Clark]

Close, but no cigar

Ah..  stupid me.  I forgot that NATO encompasses more than just Western Europe these days. 

[Martin Kristiansen]

Economics are totally above my paid grade, so here goes a genuine question. Chinese economy is based primarily on manufacturing. US economy seems to be based on the service industries and on consumption. China makes, US uses. How do you balance that? Would it not require the US not being such a consumer. Don’t buy that new phone, stick with the old TV or toaster for a while longer. Columbia produces cocaine, they sell it it to the US, how would you balance that? Stopping consumption I would assume.

Like I say. Above my pay grade.

[jeremyrh]

Economics are totally above my paid grade, so here goes a genuine question. Chinese economy is based primarily on manufacturing. US economy seems to be based on the service industries and on consumption. China makes, US uses. How do you balance that? Would it not require the US not being such a consumer. Don’t buy that new phone, stick with the old TV or toaster for a while longer. Columbia produces cocaine, they sell it it to the US, how would you balance that? Stopping consumption I would assume.

Like I say. Above my pay grade.

Good points. As a letter in the Financial Times pointed out yesterday, when you take into account the manufacturing that takes place in China for US companies (Apple is the obvious example) the "imbalance" reduces or disappears.

[Robert Roaldi]

Close, but no cigar

The Masons?

[Alan Goldhammer]

Economics are totally above my paid grade, so here goes a genuine question. Chinese economy is based primarily on manufacturing. US economy seems to be based on the service industries and on consumption. China makes, US uses. How do you balance that? Would it not require the US not being such a consumer. Don’t buy that new phone, stick with the old TV or toaster for a while longer. Columbia produces cocaine, they sell it it to the US, how would you balance that? Stopping consumption I would assume.

Like I say. Above my pay grade.

there was a large sign outside of Trenton NJ that was visible from the train when we would go up to New York for a visit, "Trenton makes, the World takes."  Alas, this is no longer true.  The best way to stop the imbalance in the drug trade is to fully decriminalize it and eliminate the vast profits that can be made.  I'm curious whether the current trend in the states to decriminalizing marijuana will have any impact on the use of other drugs.