Nikon’s new mirrorless system, coming in ... late September 2018

[BernardLanguillier]

Yes, but we don't have these numbers so all you are doing is guessing. So purely meaningless then. Actual figures of ILC sold show Nikon slipping by quite a lot in the last 5+ years. Not too long ago they were right up there with Canon in market share, now they are 1/2 their size and it's basically mirror less that has been eating Nikon's shorts while Canon holds its own.

This is just a guess of yours too my friend. My guess is that there has simply been less renewal among Nikon DSLRs shooters because the lower end bodies they were selling 5 ears ago were already based on best in class Sony sensors, already had excellent AF performance, while Canon low end bodies were still leaving a lot to be desired. Combined with top class sales and marketing techniques, Canon has simply been able to push many more cheap boxes through their channels.

But to the point, there is solid evidence from monthly sales numbers that Nikon has been selling significantly more high end FF bodies that Canon has, which means that the have increased their share in the upper value market.

This evidence is backed up by our local experience here at LL where the number of Canon FF shooters has been dropping significantly, which hasn't been the case for Nikon shooters.

But anyway, we are not going to agree on this so I'll just leave it at that.

Cheers,
Bernard

[Rob C]

Peter Lindbergh uses Nikon.

So that's settled.

[shadowblade]

Bear in mind that Nikon hasn't updated the D610 and D750 in years, while Canon has released the 6D2 and 5D4. You get a spike in sales every time you bring out a new camera, and, at the lower end of the full frame range, Canon's been doing that a lot more than Nikon. Performance has little to do with it - people buying cameras at that end of the full-frame spectrum are likely not looking at differences in base-ISO DR or a camera's ability to track a diving bird plunging into water against a busy background of reeds in low light.

Given this, I doubt we'll see a D620, D650 or D760. Nikon's first mirrorless body will not be D5 class, but will be a D610/D750 replacement, competing against, and in the same price bracket as, the A7III. It's a much safer proposition - far less demanding on the AF, viewfinder and other non-optical, non-sensor performance aspects (especially for a first-generation body) and replacing two bodies which are due for replacement anyway. Probably launched with a 24-70/2.8, a 70-200/2.8 or 24-105/4.0, and a prime (50mm or 85mm) - a good starting kit for basic users. If they're smart, they'll include an adapter for current F-mount lenses in the kit, just like Sony included a Metabones adapter. They may also launch a high-resolution A7r3 competitor, although this would be a riskier proposition with more demands on performance and would cannibalise the D850.

[BernardLanguillier]

We will know in 3 weeks if your forecast regarding the positioning of the Nikon mirrorless is correct or not.

Shall we agree that you’ll either be right or wrong on everything else also?

For the record, the rumors disagree with you since they claim that we will both get a a7III and a7rIII/a9 competitors with better than D5 AF. The teaser also screams high end, but...

Cheers,
Bernard

P.s.: the AF of the a7III appears to be superior to that of the a7rIII...

[shadowblade]

We will know in 3 weeks if your forecast regarding the positioning of the Nikon mirrorless is correct or not.

Shall we agree that you’ll either be right or wrong on everything else also?

For the record, the rumors disagree with you since they claim that we will both get a a7III and a7rIII/a9 competitors with better than D5 AF. The teaser also screams high end, but...

Cheers,
Bernard

P.s.: the AF of the a7III appears to be superior to that of the a7rIII...

Right. So Nikon will release an A7-like camera, with higher resolution than the A7r3, with better AF than the D5. And pigs might fly.

Re: AF performance. A7III tracks over a wider area of the sensor. A7R3 has better eye AF (works at a greater distance). Both seem just as fast tracking something within the area of their respective PDAF zones.

[chez]

And pigs might fly.

I think your line of thinking can be used in the Nikon marketing department. Shoot with the new Nikon mirror less and you will see pigs fly by in the viewfinder.

Nikon...the first PIF camera...Pigs in Flight.

[BernardLanguillier]

Right. So Nikon will release an A7-like camera, with higher resolution than the A7r3, with better AF than the D5. And pigs might fly.

The rumors speak about 2 cameras using 24 and 45 mp. Nothing really impossible so far.

I agree with you, the D5 is hard to beat. We will see.

Cheers,
Bernard

[D Fuller]

Right. So Nikon will release an A7-like camera, with higher resolution than the A7r3, with better AF than the D5. And pigs might fly.

Re: AF performance. A7III tracks over a wider area of the sensor. A7R3 has better eye AF (works at a greater distance). Both seem just as fast tracking something within the area of their respective PDAF zones.

I don’t think this scenario is likely at all. We’re all guessing here, of course, so here’s mine...

I think, based on the Nikonrumor site’s releases, that there will be two cameras in quick succession, if not at the same time. One will be a high-res tour-de-force camera in the D850 class that competes with the A7R3 in features and bests it in resolution and ergonomics (for many people). I think it’s autofocus will be very good, but not D5 good, and I expect it will have all of the technology tricks of the D850 like automated focus stacking and time lapse. And I expect (maybe the right word is hope) that it will have the best, highest-scan-rate, highest-DR viewfinder on the market.

I expect the other camera to be a 24Mpix, A73 class camera—a camera with a lower price for a larger market, with very good low light performance and autofocus, but not D5/A9 class autofocus. To do that would make it cost too much for this target market.

Next year, I expect at least two more. One will be an A9 class mirrorless with top-shelf autofocus and frame rates and a price to match. This one will be in the 24Mpix range, because all of the class-leading autofocus cameras are in that range: D5, A9, 1D, & SL all twenty-something megapixels, and I think that’s not just coincidence, I think physics are at play there.

The fourth camera, I have no idea. If Nikon really wanted to make a splash in the video world, they’d release a low-light monster that records 10-bit, high-bitrate video, and outputs 10-bit uncompressed to its HDMI port. If it can autofocus video well, that camera would turn a lot of heads.

Or they could go the APS-C route with the fourth one, though that requires another set of lenses.

That’s my prediction, with the benefit of no actual insight or inside info at all. Anybody setting up a pool?

[Two23]

Peter Lindbergh uses Nikon.

Never mind Peter Lindbergh.  What about Peter Lik?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMgg1SVy6zc


Kent in SD

[shadowblade]

I don’t think this scenario is likely at all. We’re all guessing here, of course, so here’s mine...

I think, based on the Nikonrumor site’s releases, that there will be two cameras in quick succession, if not at the same time. One will be a high-res tour-de-force camera in the D850 class that competes with the A7R3 in features and bests it in resolution and ergonomics (for many people). I think it’s autofocus will be very good, but not D5 good, and I expect it will have all of the technology tricks of the D850 like automated focus stacking and time lapse. And I expect (maybe the right word is hope) that it will have the best, highest-scan-rate, highest-DR viewfinder on the market.

I expect the other camera to be a 24Mpix, A73 class camera—a camera with a lower price for a larger market, with very good low light performance and autofocus, but not D5/A9 class autofocus. To do that would make it cost too much for this target market.

That's pretty much what I wrote in my earlier post. The notion that Nikon will make a do-everything supercamera that outperforms both the A7r3 in resolution and D5 in AF, then sell it at a price competitive with the A7III, is just fanboy wishful thinking. I doubt Nikon can even make a mirrorless AF system that matches the D5, 1Dx2 or A9 at the moment. Maybe for the next generation, but not this one.

As I said, I'd expect a 24MP A7III-class camera, with a few core lenses to match. That is, f/2.8 zooms and f/1.4-1.8 primes in the 35-85mm range, not esoteric superfast lenses with limited market appeal. The second camera, if they release one at the same time, will be a high-resolution body, probably using the D850's sensor. I doubt it will match the A7r3 performance-wise, due to being Nikon's first-generation mirrorless camera, but that will be of little consequence to many people who prioritise resolution, and Nikon may undercut the A7r3 on price, given that their camera will have a much smaller lens selection, possibly lower non-sensor performance and due to the need to build up market share. Essentially, it would be like Sony's 2013 release of the A7 and A7r - one entry-level and low-resolution,  as well as a higher-resolution body.

It will be interesting to see Sony's next move. No doubt they will know what Nikon are making - after all, they make Nikon's sensors (for mirrorless cameras, this includes the sensor-based aspects of the AF system), and may also be making their EVFs (Sony being one of the main manufacturers of EVFs). Since the Nikon bodies will have been in development for years, the Sony response will likely have been in development for almost as long.

[BernardLanguillier]

The notion that Nikon will make a do-everything supercamera that outperforms both the A7r3 in resolution and D5 in AF, then sell it at a price competitive with the A7III, is just fanboy wishful thinking.

You are the only person in this thread who wrote about this possibility...

Cheers,
Bernard

[shadowblade]

You are the only person in this thread who wrote about this possibility...

Cheers,
Bernard

Your own words:

, the rumors disagree with you since they claim that we will both get a a7III and a7rIII/a9 competitors with better than D5 AF.

A camera that competes with the A7III, A7r3 and A9 would have to beat the A7III on price, A7r3 on image quality/resolution and A9 on AF/frame rate. Not going to happen.

[BJL]

@shadowblade, I agree that a 50/0.95 is not a real priority; if made it would be a “because we can now” like the Canon 50/1 was for EF mount. To repeat, the main benefits of extra mount width are easier designs for low aperture ratios at focal lengths that are many times the mount depth and benefitting from an exit pupil height far greater than the mount depth. Things like Canon’s 85/1.2, or a 135/1.4 or 200/2 or 400/2.8 are easier to design with less light fall-off (mild vignetting) near the corners. I could post a formula for throat diameter needs based on exit pupil height, f-stop and mount depth.

And it gives IBIS more room to move the sensor, not a factor in any film-era design.

[BernardLanguillier]

Your own words:
A camera that competes with the A7III, A7r3 and A9 would have to beat the A7III on price, A7r3 on image quality/resolution and A9 on AF/frame rate. Not going to happen.

No:
- I am mentioning 2 cameras
- I am not speaking about price

Cheers,
Bernard

[davidgp]

So, my bet, Nikon will say that both their cameras have the best AF system in their class (Sony always says that in their marketing material... ), fanboys will claim that it is the truth... Anyway, in terms of market, and according to rumors, Nikon will release two cameras:

- A 24 megapixel camera, focusing in prize, that will take the place of their D6XX and D7XX line. This will be a camera with better AF system of the two (Sony A7 III has better AF that the Sony A7r III, in fact, it has the same AF system as the A9, just slower chip reading the image from the sensor, making it imposible to reach 20 fps and that good nearly no-rolling-shutter electronic shutter). This will be the high selling camera for Nikon.

- A 45 megapixel camera (or around that amount... but I suspect Nikon will use the same 45 megapixel sensor of D850 with AF system over it to save costs, they already paid for the design and manufacturing fine tunning of it, now it is just ordering a new batch of them), focusing on image quality and resolution, to attract the possible buyers of a Sony a7r III or D850.

I'm not expecting a Nikon megacamera that beats everything... that it is just wishful thinking. Those two will cover nicely the market of people thinking to switch to a Nikon mirrorless system.

It will be interesting to see Sony's next move. No doubt they will know what Nikon are making - after all, they make Nikon's sensors (for mirrorless cameras, this includes the sensor-based aspects of the AF system), and may also be making their EVFs (Sony being one of the main manufacturers of EVFs). Since the Nikon bodies will have been in development for years, the Sony response will likely have been in development for almost as long.

Sony will probably do nothing. They released end of last year the a7r III and this year the A7 III. Those cameras will still be on the market for another year before being replaced. By the end of the year we will probably see the A7s III, more focused on video and low sensitivity (the A7 III has a sensor that has a high-ISO noise similar to the A7s II right now..., Sony has to best themselves there). Of course, this camera will need to best the Panasonic GH5/GH5s in terms of video features... that it is their competitor in the SLR video market. Maybe we see the infamous a6700...

Next year we maybe see an A9 II... or maybe beginning 2020. Sony will want to have more people in Tokyo Olympics in 2020. And of course, continuing making new lenses.

I highly doubt Sony Imaging Products and Solutions has inside information from the Sony Semiconductors company.

[Paulo Bizarro]

No:
- I am mentioning 2 cameras
- I am not speaking about price

Cheers,
Bernard

I agree on the 2 cameras scenario, like Sony did at launch: A7 and A7R.

[chez]

I highly doubt Sony Imaging Products and Solutions has inside information from the Sony Semiconductors company.

Why do you say that?

[BernardLanguillier]

Why do you say that?

Because Sony Semi-conductor, as part of the Sony group, strives to meet very high ethical standards in terms of not leaking their customers information?

Cheers,
Bernard

[E.J. Peiker]

Because Sony Semi-conductor, as part of the Sony group, strives to meet very high ethical standards in terms of not leaking their customers information?

Cheers,
Bernard

This reminds me of my 27 year career at Intel.  There was absolutely zero cross-talk between the unit that worked with the Windows PC industry and the unit that worked with Apple.  Even when Apple announced it was switching from Motorola to Intel processors, it took virtually everyone, except the super secret Intel/Apple team by surprise.  Even the most senior people, except those that had an absolute need to know, had no idea.

[davidgp]

Why do you say that?

Because Sony Imaging Products commented that several times in interviews... they don't get inside information about what the company is doing to other competitors.

One of the reasons that Sony did making Sony Semiconductors an independent company was to make imaging products competitors (from mobile phones to cameras) less worried that Sony could get inside information from their designs.