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Author Topic: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.  (Read 108090 times)

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #80 on: May 01, 2018, 05:50:56 pm »

Better get your glasses checked, Pieter, then re-read what I said. I didn't make a comparison.
Erlich's projection was based on a single factor, population growth, which he thought would outstrip resources.  Similarly, the Club of Rome (I think that was the group; too lazy to Google) looked at impending shortages of a number of different raw materials and none of their predictions came true.  It was maybe 15-20 years ago that the world was running out of oil and then fracking released large quantities of both oil and gas within the US such that we are not dependent on outsiders for the most part.  I think climate change is different from the above cases as there is a lot of documentation about what is going on and most of the predictions I've seen appear to be scientifically plausible.  This is not to say that any future effects cannot be remediated, they can but in a lot of areas I don't see anything happening.  The squabbling political parties don't seem to understand that it's in the countries best interest to work towards solutions rather than endlessly complaining that one side is right and one is wrong. 

As was noted in one of the earlier posts, perhaps the private market makes decisions for us.  When homeowners cannot get 'affordable' property casualty insurance that will make the pain more real than it is. 
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OmerV

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #81 on: May 01, 2018, 06:41:49 pm »

Right, John. It's called coastal subsidence. In other words, the land is sinking. Yes, the sea is rising too, but at a very slow rate. If you dig out your historical geology books you'll find this isn't something the world has never seen before. And, golly, it's gotten warmer in a single generation? The only possible solution is to hide under the bed.

Russ, you are correct that there is subsidence and sea rising, but while the rising rate may be slow us inlanders, to islanders that rate of change means something else:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/14/our-country-will-vanish-pacific-islanders-bring-desperate-message-to-australia

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/03/world/asia/climate-change-kiribati.html

If communities are going to be inundated within a generation or sooner, I would say that is not slow. So it seems hiding under the bed is not an option for some folks. But I have to ask, what would you consider to be an environmental long term detrimental change to your community? Where I live, it is drought. Now, if it's just hard luck for those islanders, then what does the lack of water mean for the entire Southwest, which is growing at an undeniably fast rate? Well, okay, there is sand enough here into which the country can bury its collective head.  :D



RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #82 on: May 01, 2018, 08:01:17 pm »

Omer, since your profile is a total N/A I don't have a clue where your island might be. Sorry to hear you're in trouble, but if you make your home on a low-lying island you've got to expect losses in some seasons. I hope you'll be able to solve the problem. Where I live the problem is hurricanes. Where I lived before, the problem was tornadoes. Before that the problem was war.
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RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #83 on: May 01, 2018, 08:07:02 pm »

Erlich's projection was based on a single factor, population growth, which he thought would outstrip resources.  Similarly, the Club of Rome (I think that was the group; too lazy to Google) looked at impending shortages of a number of different raw materials and none of their predictions came true.  It was maybe 15-20 years ago that the world was running out of oil and then fracking released large quantities of both oil and gas within the US such that we are not dependent on outsiders for the most part.  I think climate change is different from the above cases as there is a lot of documentation about what is going on and most of the predictions I've seen appear to be scientifically plausible.  This is not to say that any future effects cannot be remediated, they can but in a lot of areas I don't see anything happening.  The squabbling political parties don't seem to understand that it's in the countries best interest to work towards solutions rather than endlessly complaining that one side is right and one is wrong. 

As was noted in one of the earlier posts, perhaps the private market makes decisions for us.  When homeowners cannot get 'affordable' property casualty insurance that will make the pain more real than it is.

Exactly, Alan. I don't think I've ever said climate change couldn't be true. Global temperature was rising for many years. Lately it's quit doing that, possibly not for long. What I did say and keep saying is that we simply don't have the tools to know what's going to happen next. As far as the private market making decisions for us, that's the way it should be. Adam Smith's "invisible hand" is far more intelligent than a government hand.
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OmerV

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #84 on: May 01, 2018, 08:35:41 pm »

Omer, since your profile is a total N/A I don't have a clue where your island might be. Sorry to hear you're in trouble, but if you make your home on a low-lying island you've got to expect losses in some seasons. I hope you'll be able to solve the problem. Where I live the problem is hurricanes. Where I lived before, the problem was tornadoes. Before that the problem was war.

Tucson, Arizona. Might as well be an island though instead of water rising, it is disappearing. But there’s plenty of sand.

Ray

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #85 on: May 01, 2018, 10:35:44 pm »

The conservative global warming deniers are now getting bit on their economic asses in Miami -- according to the Wall Street Journal, waterfront and near-waterfront houses are now being discounted because of slowly rising oceans and increasing instances of flooding. This is the free market doing it, not CNN.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-fears-reshape-miamis-housing-market-1524225600

There are other long-term real-world non-political tests of global warming as well. Since I first bought a home in Minnesota's St. Croix Valley in 1978, the gardening temperature/growing season guidelines for that specific area have gone up a full notch under the USDA guidelines. We have earlier and warmer springs, slightly shorter and warmer winters (though still cold) and this change has happened in a single generation.

IMHO, and I offer this thought with complete and humble charity, anyone who denies global warming is stupid.

John,
There seems to be a lot of confusion about the nature of this Climate Change debate. The terms 'Climate Change denier', or 'Global Warming denier' contribute to this confusion.

A climate Change denier is a person who knows absolutely nothing about climate. If people reading this are genuinely interested in the subject, the first fundamental piece of knowledge they need to acquire, as a starting point, is the fact that climate is always changing. It always has changed in the past, and will continue to change in the future.

The real challenges that mankind face, with regard to climate change, is in adapting to such changes, learning from history, and organizing our affairs in a way that protects us from the extreme weather events that have occurred in the past and can be expected to occur again in the future, regardless of slight changes in atmospheric CO2 levels.

Unfortunately, adapting, acting sensibly, and learning from history, is often too difficult and too expensive. It requires lots of cheap energy, a fair, egalitarian, and educated society, an efficient economy, and more politicians who have a background in science and engineering and who can explain to the population why certain measures that might appear unpopular are in fact in the best, long-term, interests of the nation.

The idea that we can control our climate by changing minuscule percentages of CO2 in the atmosphere, is ludicrous. However, I do understand that it's a very politicaly useful meme which can be used to protect the reputation of those in power.

For example, if the local government in a particular area allows people to build houses in a location that has been frequently flooded in the past, without imposing building regulations that require such houses to be protected from such floods and raised above the known levels of previous flood events in the area, then the government is clearly incompetent.

When the next flood occurs, perhaps, very sadly, causing a few deaths as well as massive property destruction, the media will tend to describe the event as the worst flood in living memory, or the worst flood ever recorded, or a once-in-a-century flood, and will reinforce the meme that this is yet another example of the effects of human-induced climate change due to rising CO2 levels.

This process, I admit, has a beneficial psychological effect. It protects the government from an angry backlash from the citizens affected - "Why didn't you build more flood-mitigation dams during the last drought, knowing that the drought would eventually end and be followed by periods of heavy rain?" and "Why did you allow us to build houses in a flood plain without informing us of the history of flooding in the area and explaining the need for elevated housing and changing the building regulations accordingly?'

Those of us who have an inquiring mind and take the trouble to research the history of flooding in the area, by examining the data available in agencies such as the Bureau of Meteorology, which might go back a hundred years or more, and other research organizations which provide proxy data going back several centuries, usually discover that the latest flooding disaster was nowhere near the worst flood ever recorded.

A similar situation applies to the other types of extreme weather events, such as hurricane and droughts. It's very rare that any extreme weather event in modern times is actually the worst on record, in the general area, although it can sometimes happen, but probably because there are no reliable records that back far enough.

Whilst the delusion that using CO2 levels as a control knob to make the climate more beneficial, might be psychologically comforting for many people who are ignorant of the historical record of past weather events in their area, there will likely be negative effects to this delusion, such as increased electricity costs, which are currently an issue in Australia, and a tendency to continue to build inadequate housing with the false expectation that future reductions in CO2 levels will significantly reduce the severity and frequency of extreme weather events.

The reason I'm bothering to write all this, is because I genuinely feel compassion for future generations who will bear the consequences of such mismanagement.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #86 on: May 01, 2018, 11:42:14 pm »

Ray, that is a very sensible post which should be submitted to some well-read magazine, like Time, Guardian or National Geographic.
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Ray

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #87 on: May 02, 2018, 12:04:12 am »

Ray, that is a very sensible post which should be submitted to some well-read magazine, like Time, Guardian or National Geographic.

Thanks, Les.

The issue of sea level rises is quite fascinating, for those with an inquiring mind. There are many islands which are gradually sinking, where the inhabitants erroneously confuse the sinking with sea level rises due to global warming.

There are places where the sinking is less than the sea level rise, and simply amplifies the sea-level rise, and yet other places where the sinking is greater than the average sea-level rise and amplifies that rise even more. The city of Bangkok in Thailand is an example of a place which is sinking at a greater rate than the average sea-level rise.

But what really fascinates me is the following story in Scientific American. Do you Americans consider Scientific American to be a reliable source?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-scientist-explains-the-mystery-of-recent-sea-level-drop/

"For the past couple of decades, the oceans have been steadily rising. Each year, sea-level increases by about 3 millimeters, a constant and ominous creep responding to climate warming.
Scientists have been measuring this rise from satellites since 1993, using instruments called altimeters. But for an 18-month period that began in the middle of 2010, something surprising happened. Instead of rising, sea levels fell."


The fascinating part is the reason offered for this unusual fall in sea levels.

"Where did the water go?
In most cases, though, water that falls on land eventually drains into the ocean. Even if a whole lot of rain fell in South America's Amazon, for example, it could slow sea-level rise for only about a couple of months, as it slowly made its way to the sea.
So in order to make sea levels fall, the water had to be stored in a place where it didn't reach the ocean for a long while. That place, it turns out, was Australia."


Wow!  God bless Australia. ;D

"Lake Eyre is the lowest point in Australia. It's usually a dry, salty flat. But when it rains heavily, the basin fills, and the lake teems with new life, as long-dormant seeds spring to life and birds flock to the lake.
From 2010 to 2011, enough rain fell on Australia to fill the lower part of the lake almost completely, and the upper portion at least 75 percent. Australia got about a foot of rain more than normal over that period, said Fasullo.
The continent stored that excess water for long enough to change global sea levels."


Wow! God bless Australia again!  ;D

If this is true, then the solution to rising sea levels is plain. Encourage every country, especially countries with arid regions, to build more dams to reduce the amount of water flowing out to the sea. Such water can also be used to irrigate arid regions, help reforestation and increase food production. What a sensible solution.

I'm very humble, but I won't object if you all nominate me for a Nobel Prize.  ;D
« Last Edit: May 02, 2018, 12:10:07 am by Ray »
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LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #88 on: May 02, 2018, 12:16:53 am »

another good idea which should improve your chances for the Nobel Prize.
BTW, here in Ontario, we have a small village called Nobel. It is in the Municipality of McDougall in the District of Parry Sound near Georgian Bay, a gorgeous recreational body of water - actually a part of Lake Huron. The Nobel village is named after Alfred Nobel, the inventor of dynamite.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #89 on: May 02, 2018, 12:44:05 am »

Quote
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that some 96,075 diseases caused by bites by mosquitoes, ticks and fleas were reported in 2016, up from 27,388 in 2004, in an analysis of data from the CDC’s National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. Infections in 2016 went up 73 percent from 2015, reflecting the emergence of Zika, which is transmitted by mosquitoes and can cause severe birth defects. Zika was the most common disease borne by ticks, mosquitoes and fleas reported in 2016, with 41,680 cases reported, followed by Lyme disease, with 36,429 cases, almost double the number in 2004. The increases may be a result of climate change, with increased temperatures and shorter winters boosting populations of ticks, mosquitoes and other disease-carrying creatures known as “vectors.”

“It enables these ticks to expand to new areas. Where there are ticks, there comes diseases,” said Lyle Petersen, director of the CDC’s Division of Vector-Borne Diseases. Warmer summer temperatures also tend to bring outbreaks of mosquito-borne illnesses, Petersen said. While Zika stood out as the latest emerging threat in the report, it also showed a long-term increase in cases of tick-borne Lyme disease, which can attack the heart and nervous system if left untreated.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-health-insectillness/tick-mosquito-borne-infections-surge-in-united-states-cdc-idUSKBN1I2423
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pegelli

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #90 on: May 02, 2018, 03:00:20 am »

Right, John. It's called coastal subsidence. In other words, the land is sinking. Yes, the sea is rising too, but at a very slow rate.

Better get your glasses checked, Pieter, then re-read what I said. I didn't make a comparison.

So the comparison you made was that the sea is rising slower than the land is sinking.

So no need to check my glasses, because the "projections" I found say the exact opposite and are contrary to the "projections" you seem to have read.
Actually I have not been able to find any "projections" that support your statement, which is why I called it bogus and making snarky remarks isn't going to hide the misinformation you posted here. I think that place under the bed must start to become more and more attractive for you.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #91 on: May 02, 2018, 07:40:42 am »

John,
There seems to be a lot of confusion about the nature of this Climate Change debate. The terms 'Climate Change denier', or 'Global Warming denier' contribute to this confusion.

A climate Change denier is a person who knows absolutely nothing about climate. If people reading this are genuinely interested in the subject, the first fundamental piece of knowledge they need to acquire, as a starting point, is the fact that climate is always changing. It always has changed in the past, and will continue to change in the future.

I admire the creativity with which you make up utter crap.

A "denier" is also someone who does (more or less) know the facts, but yet insists on denying the consequences that logically follow from that knowledge. The motivation for doing so can be diverse. It becomes worse if he/she then deliberately spreads information that contradicts his/her own knowledge. So your framing of a denier is incomplete at best, deliberately deceptive at worst. One could label such information as fake news/information.

In addition, nobody claimed that the climate doesn't change, because obviously, it is constantly changing, as it's adapting to changed forcings. So you created a strawman argument to build your reasoning on. Why?

Don't know about you, but we are discussing the consequences of MAN-MADE climate change, formally known as anthropogenic climate change. If you want to discuss climate change in general, it's probably more useful to start your own thread about that uncontested situation.

Even though it's some 5 years old, the following lecture is still a very good summary of the scientific view on anthropogenic climate change:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4Q271UaNPo&feature=youtu.be&t=447
more recent updates by science are still pointing in the same direction, so besides discussions, there remains actual work to be done. And, the longer we postpone addressing it, fixing the situation becomes more urgent and more costly as time is being wasted.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: May 02, 2018, 08:07:48 am by BartvanderWolf »
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== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #92 on: May 02, 2018, 07:56:08 am »

[...]The real challenges that mankind face, with regard to climate change, is in adapting to such changes, learning from history, and organizing our affairs in a way that protects us from the extreme weather events that have occurred in the past and can be expected to occur again in the future, regardless of slight changes in atmospheric CO2 levels.

That's wasted effort if we do not at the same time address the causes. There's little use in mopping while the tap is still running and flooding the floor.

Unfortunately, adapting, acting sensibly, and learning from history, is often too difficult and too expensive.[/quote]

It will only get more expensive as we wait and do little or nothing.

Quote
The idea that we can control our climate by changing minuscule percentages of CO2 in the atmosphere, is ludicrous. However, I do understand that it's a very politicaly useful meme which can be used to protect the reputation of those in power.

Here you go again, more BS.

It has become generally accepted, since the middle of last century (so please keep up with the rest), that CO2 is the main contributor to the rapid (more rapid than before) rise of global temperature. The fact that the low percentage of CO2 in the mix that makes up our atmosphere can cause such an effect as a feedback force, should be cause for extra concern. So why you'd want to suggest that a low percentage is of low concern escapes me. Unless you want to deny the heat-trapping effects of CO2, which is measurable (and has been known since the middle of the 19th century) and is not a mindless meme.

Cheers,
Bart
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== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #93 on: May 02, 2018, 08:00:32 am »

So the comparison you made was that the sea is rising slower than the land is sinking.

So no need to check my glasses, because the "projections" I found say the exact opposite and are contrary to the "projections" you seem to have read.
Actually I have not been able to find any "projections" that support your statement, which is why I called it bogus and making snarky remarks isn't going to hide the misinformation you posted here. I think that place under the bed must start to become more and more attractive for you.

Pieter, I thought it might be your glasses, but now I have to suggest a thorough eye exam. Once your vision is restored and you re-read what I said you'll see that I didn't make any comparisons. I said that the coast is subsiding and that the water is rising. I pointed out that the rise of the water is very small, which it is. I didn't say anything about the magnitude of subsidence.

Good luck with the ophthalmologist.

Almost forgot to ask about the "projections" you found. Were those by a guy named Erlich? I'm kind of surprised I haven't read any stuff by him on the subject of climate change. As far as I know he's still around, since he's two years younger than I am.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2018, 08:12:46 am by RSL »
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Russ Lewis  www.russ-lewis.com.

RSL

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #94 on: May 02, 2018, 08:03:06 am »

John,
There seems to be a lot of confusion about the nature of this Climate Change debate. The terms 'Climate Change denier', or 'Global Warming denier' contribute to this confusion.

A climate Change denier is a person who knows absolutely nothing about climate. If people reading this are genuinely interested in the subject, the first fundamental piece of knowledge they need to acquire, as a starting point, is the fact that climate is always changing. It always has changed in the past, and will continue to change in the future.

The real challenges that mankind face, with regard to climate change, is in adapting to such changes, learning from history, and organizing our affairs in a way that protects us from the extreme weather events that have occurred in the past and can be expected to occur again in the future, regardless of slight changes in atmospheric CO2 levels.

Unfortunately, adapting, acting sensibly, and learning from history, is often too difficult and too expensive. It requires lots of cheap energy, a fair, egalitarian, and educated society, an efficient economy, and more politicians who have a background in science and engineering and who can explain to the population why certain measures that might appear unpopular are in fact in the best, long-term, interests of the nation.

The idea that we can control our climate by changing minuscule percentages of CO2 in the atmosphere, is ludicrous. However, I do understand that it's a very politicaly useful meme which can be used to protect the reputation of those in power.

For example, if the local government in a particular area allows people to build houses in a location that has been frequently flooded in the past, without imposing building regulations that require such houses to be protected from such floods and raised above the known levels of previous flood events in the area, then the government is clearly incompetent.

When the next flood occurs, perhaps, very sadly, causing a few deaths as well as massive property destruction, the media will tend to describe the event as the worst flood in living memory, or the worst flood ever recorded, or a once-in-a-century flood, and will reinforce the meme that this is yet another example of the effects of human-induced climate change due to rising CO2 levels.

This process, I admit, has a beneficial psychological effect. It protects the government from an angry backlash from the citizens affected - "Why didn't you build more flood-mitigation dams during the last drought, knowing that the drought would eventually end and be followed by periods of heavy rain?" and "Why did you allow us to build houses in a flood plain without informing us of the history of flooding in the area and explaining the need for elevated housing and changing the building regulations accordingly?'

Those of us who have an inquiring mind and take the trouble to research the history of flooding in the area, by examining the data available in agencies such as the Bureau of Meteorology, which might go back a hundred years or more, and other research organizations which provide proxy data going back several centuries, usually discover that the latest flooding disaster was nowhere near the worst flood ever recorded.

A similar situation applies to the other types of extreme weather events, such as hurricane and droughts. It's very rare that any extreme weather event in modern times is actually the worst on record, in the general area, although it can sometimes happen, but probably because there are no reliable records that back far enough.

Whilst the delusion that using CO2 levels as a control knob to make the climate more beneficial, might be psychologically comforting for many people who are ignorant of the historical record of past weather events in their area, there will likely be negative effects to this delusion, such as increased electricity costs, which are currently an issue in Australia, and a tendency to continue to build inadequate housing with the false expectation that future reductions in CO2 levels will significantly reduce the severity and frequency of extreme weather events.

The reason I'm bothering to write all this, is because I genuinely feel compassion for future generations who will bear the consequences of such mismanagement.

Thanks, Ray, for what''s probably the most sensible post on this thread.
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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #95 on: May 02, 2018, 08:06:57 am »

It has become generally accepted, since the middle of last century. . .
Cheers,
Bart

And that, of course, proves the point. Generally accepted by whom, Bart? By left-wing politicians posing as scientists?
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Jim Pascoe

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #96 on: May 02, 2018, 08:11:16 am »

Really, Les? What do you think is going to attack our lives? Surely you're not talking about global warming, which essentially has been in abeyance for the past fifteen years, and even has begun receding during the past two or so. Maybe you're talking about an asteroid strike.

Should point out that the article you linked too re the 15 years was written in 2013........

Jim
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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #97 on: May 02, 2018, 08:21:39 am »

Should point out that the article you linked too re the 15 years was written in 2013........

Jim

Hi Jim. I don't remember linking to an article re 15 years. I remember linking to an article re cooling for the past two years. Are you talking about the horse-hockey stick references?
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pegelli

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #98 on: May 02, 2018, 08:24:29 am »

Pieter, I thought it might be your glasses, but now I have to suggest a thorough eye exam. Once your vision is restored and you re-read what I said you'll see that I didn't make any comparisons. I said that the coast is subsiding and that the water is rising. I pointed out that the rise of the water is very small, which it is. I didn't say anything about the magnitude of subsidence.

Good luck with the ophthalmologist,.
I admire your way of trying to weasle out of this one, albeit unsuccessfull. It's really funny to see you cringe and try to be smart when you're caught on posting bullshit.
You are right you didn't specifically mention anything about the magnitude of the subsidence, but logically the only conclusion from your words can be that you believe it's bigger than the water rise.

Alan and John talk about the risk of additional flooding due to the sea level rising
You then say "It's called coastal subsidence. In other words, the land is sinking. Yes, the sea is rising too, but at a very slow rate."

So you first offer a different explanation for the effect they talk about and then say they the effect they mention is there albeit very small. If you really thought there was a chance that coastal subsidence would have been equal or less than the sea level rise this sentence doesn't make any sense and you would have written it differently.

Hope it's not too dusty under your bed, and I have no need to see an ophthalmologist, my eyes as well as my comprehension skills are perfectly fine. It's gorgeous weather here and I think I'll go out and take some photographs. Much better than wasting my time here.

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Jim Pascoe

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Re: Global Cooling. The sky is falling.
« Reply #99 on: May 02, 2018, 08:36:49 am »

Global warming's okay, eh Alan, but not global cooling?

Here are a couple references the global warmists might want to see. There are many more out there. Yes, I know, there's all sorts of "scientific evidence" on both sides of the question, including the horse hockey stick that sort of blew up in the faces of those who invented it.

http://thefederalist.com/2015/01/19/global-warming-most-dishonest-year-on-record/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2425775/Climate-scientists-told-cover-fact-Earths-temperature-risen-15-years.html

It was the second of these two links Russ.  The second one was written in 2013

Jim

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