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Author Topic: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)  (Read 5292 times)

Rob C

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #20 on: April 25, 2018, 09:50:31 AM »

All that is correct, and some people make their own cameras with a wooden box as well. It's a matter on how many people use each technology.

Regarding interchangeable lens systems, a niche by itself because of smartphones being so widely used, DSLR will become a subniche. The reason is clear: DSLR advantages are vanishing and disadvantages increasing. Just think what a newcomer who has been taking pictures with a mobile will prefer, having to fiddle with light meters and try&error exposure or look at what their picture will look like, just as in their phone.

Regards


Guess it just depends what they want out of life.

Are you suggesting that cameras (real) are a niche because of another niche coming along? I have both, and would never again use a 'phone camera for anything beyond reference pics to show a shop what I'm looking for. A snap of a complicated pipe is a better way of showing the salesperson what is wanted rather than trying to explain shape etc. in words. Our Spanish hardware stores are very well stocked with almost anything a home owner might need by way of replacement parts in bathrooms and kitchens.

If there's really a niche product in photography, the 'phone is it. Niche implies a tiny area of interest.

SrMi

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #21 on: April 25, 2018, 12:14:11 PM »

The Sony A7 III is being reported as having impressive battery life, on pair with any demanding professional situation. Regarding AF, A9 and A7 III users are experiencing AF speed and accuracy in the same level as D500's, with the advantage of having a much broader AF points coverage and highly effective AF modes (e.g. face, eye) non existent for DSLR systems

Just a sample of professional social photographer, he is in love with eye AF for portraits.

A7III + MC-11 + Canon 135 F2

<snip>

Mirrorless is no way only about size and cost, it's simply the next pardigma in digital photography.

Regards

My initial impression is that my a7r III has slower and less precise AF than my D500 or D850.
The focus area on D500 is not much different than the PDAF area on a7r III.
D850 has eye tracking, it is likely not as good as a7r III's.
For me, mirrorless is mainly about size and weight. I understand some people prefer EVF to OVF, it is not my preference, though.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 12:21:36 PM by SrMi »
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chez

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #22 on: April 25, 2018, 04:37:39 PM »


Guess it just depends what they want out of life.

Are you suggesting that cameras (real) are a niche because of another niche coming along? I have both, and would never again use a 'phone camera for anything beyond reference pics to show a shop what I'm looking for. A snap of a complicated pipe is a better way of showing the salesperson what is wanted rather than trying to explain shape etc. in words. Our Spanish hardware stores are very well stocked with almost anything a home owner might need by way of replacement parts in bathrooms and kitchens.

If there's really a niche product in photography, the 'phone is it. Niche implies a tiny area of interest.

Well when the tiny area of interest, phone cameras, is magnitudes more prominent than the wide area of interest, cameras I presume, what is that telling you about what is niche and what is mainstream?
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pegelli

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #23 on: April 25, 2018, 05:20:20 PM »

All that is correct, and some people make their own cameras with a wooden box as well. It's a matter on how many people use each technology.
DSLR's are still outselling mirrorless 2:1 today (from your graph), so while you may be right in the very long term I think mirrorless is still a smaller niche as compared to DSLR's for the forseeable future.

Don't misunderstand me, I'm not a DSLR fanboy and I use mirrorless almost exclusively now with great pleasure, but I also don't mind to be in a minority.

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pieter, aka pegelli

chez

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #24 on: April 25, 2018, 05:28:30 PM »

DSLR's are still outselling mirrorless 2:1 today (from your graph), so while you may be right in the very long term I think mirrorless is still a smaller niche as compared to DSLR's for the forseeable future.

Don't misunderstand me, I'm not a DSLR fanboy and I use mirrorless almost exclusively now with great pleasure, but I also don't mind to be in a minority.

What’s your view of very long term. I’d say mirrorless will be outselling DSLR’s within 5 years, possibly 3 years. There will be an impact when Canon and Nikon play their next generation mirrorless hands.

Another trend that is interesting is the rise of sales in Asia where mirrorless sells much better than in North America and the fall in sales in North America where DSLR is king.
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bassman51

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #25 on: April 25, 2018, 07:56:52 PM »

I think we’ve reached the cusp of the tipping point where the mirror experiences a rapid decline.  There are very few applications left where the dlsr out-performs a mirrorless camera. Once Nikon Joins Canon (assuming they are serious about it), the market will flip as quickly as those two want it to.   Remember that the manufacturing costs for mirrorless is lower, while the price they can demand is apparently not (compare a D500 to an E-M1.2 or GH5).

If they jump in wholeheartedly this year, by next year it’s game over. 
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Life is what happens when you're busy making other plans.

Peter McLennan

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #26 on: April 25, 2018, 08:53:07 PM »

Frankly, I find this debate (including the ones around the whiskey barrels) boring.  It's a lot like the Apple vs Windows debate.  It has no end and it serves no purpose. 

*disclosure* I did participate.  I'm recovering.

As long as my two D800s continue to be better photographers than me, I don't care. What will happen, will happen.

It is fun to watch, though.
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pegelli

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #27 on: April 26, 2018, 02:29:03 AM »

What’s your view of very long term. I’d say mirrorless will be outselling DSLR’s within 5 years, possibly 3 years. There will be an impact when Canon and Nikon play their next generation mirrorless hands.
I'm not talking about outselling, That might indeed happen in 3-5 years allthough I wouldn't be surprized if it takes longer.

But given the many times more DSLR units out there from many years of outselling mirrorless I think it will be 10 years + before the use of mirrorless gets even close to being used as much as DSLR's.

Canon is already in their 2nd generation mirrorless and it has hardly made a dent, Nikon mirrorless is still in rumor territory. I think both will have a steep uphill battle to compete against the long established mirrorless pioneers like Fuji, Sony, Olympus and Panasonic (and even Leica).
« Last Edit: April 26, 2018, 03:49:15 AM by pegelli »
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pieter, aka pegelli

Martin Kristiansen

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #28 on: April 26, 2018, 03:00:25 AM »

My first digital camera was a Kodak DCS420. It was a Nikon N90 body with this large module permanently attached. Later digital cameras were obviously more intergrated but I always felt DSLR cameras were a hybrid thing related in some way conceptually to that DCS420. The mirrorless systems go some way closer to a full intergration of sensor and camera. Closer to to what would have been designed if we didn’t have the existing cameras and production facilities influencing the design as we did with SLR cameras.

I don’t really care much what camera i use. I would use pinhole and film if that was all that was around. I would coat my own film if I had to. But I like the mirrorless. Much more than I ever liked DSLR. I liked large format and rangefinder more than any mirror cameras actually.
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KLaban

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #29 on: April 26, 2018, 03:32:08 AM »

My camera of choice has to make me want to pick it up and use it. Over the course of a lifetime precious few have.

Most do just the opposite.
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pegelli

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #30 on: April 26, 2018, 06:59:52 AM »

My camera of choice has to make me want to pick it up and use it. Over the course of a lifetime precious few have.

Most do just the opposite.
Good point Keith, but also very personal.

Over my photographic "life" I've been lucky enough to only buy 1 camera I didn't like using (A Canon T90 which was quickly exchanged for something else).

All my others (Leica, Leicaflex, Olympus (OM system), Konica Minolta and now Sony I have found to be a joy to use and have motivated me to go out and shoot.
The cliché is that "it's just a tool", but if the tool doesn't handle well it's of limited use to me.
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pieter, aka pegelli

Rob C

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #31 on: April 26, 2018, 07:40:30 AM »

Well when the tiny area of interest, phone cameras, is magnitudes more prominent than the wide area of interest, cameras I presume, what is that telling you about what is niche and what is mainstream?


You are confusing two things here: number of cellphones around and their use as snapshot machines; the number of cameras around and their use as serious tools for making photographs.

Those are two very different things. In that wider perspective, the use of cellphones as tools of choice for making said serious images is tiny: the niche which is giving you concern.

There was ever the snapshot "photographer" who never was a photographer in the first instance, just a kind old person looking for "I was here," imagery.

The serious amateur photographer was never of that ilk: he was sometimes a very talented practitioner of the art and, often, better able to afford expensive equipment that was his professional counterpart. (Not all pro photographers get rich.) Others were just interested in the process, and wanted to make better graphic memories than they were getting from the chemist. That group, collectively, is what the market for cameras is made from today as yesterday.

Unavoidably, the guy who has but a cellphone, is hardly thought of as a photographer, so he cannot be part of the massive group that you would dearly like to use as basis for your assertion. That being so, there is no tiny niche for cameras: they are the name of the game. Attempting to subdivide them further is silly, unless you are a manufacturer wondering what to do next.

Guillermo Luijk

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #32 on: April 26, 2018, 07:54:56 AM »

DSLR's are still outselling mirrorless 2:1 today (from your graph), so while you may be right in the very long term I think mirrorless is still a smaller niche as compared to DSLR's for the forseeable future.

My point is that Canon and Nikon are having a huge influence on this trend by not entering the mirrorless market. This is going to change in the next year, so I think the convergence between mirrorless and DSLR (and convergence here means mirrorless will begin to dominate the market) can speed up a lot.

They are not preparing FF mirrorless cameras because they want to increase their customer base but because they don't want to start reducing it. If the A7 black swan from Sony didn't exist, I doubt a lot we could see any FF mirrorless from Canon or Nikon in years. They are far from audacious companies. They don't innovate and live happily as DSLR iterators.

Regards
« Last Edit: April 26, 2018, 07:58:11 AM by Guillermo Luijk »
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KLaban

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #33 on: April 26, 2018, 08:12:09 AM »

Good point Keith, but also very personal.

Over my photographic "life" I've been lucky enough to only buy 1 camera I didn't like using (A Canon T90 which was quickly exchanged for something else).

All my others (Leica, Leicaflex, Olympus (OM system), Konica Minolta and now Sony I have found to be a joy to use and have motivated me to go out and shoot.
The cliché is that "it's just a tool", but if the tool doesn't handle well it's of limited use to me.

Pieter, Agreed.

I've no interest in the latest or greatest. I'm not after a system with the highest dynamic range, the best high ISO performance, the most pixels, the fastest, the best value...really, the list goes on.

Over the last 50+ years I've bought into only four systems, two of which I love/loved, two of which I liked. I loved the Hasselblad film, love the Leica digital, liked the Hasselblad digital and liked the Nikon film. All four had one thing in common, they were utterly simple. I've begged, borrowed, demoed, hired - everything except stolen - many other systems all of which have left me cold.

   
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pegelli

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #34 on: April 26, 2018, 08:31:52 AM »

My point is that Canon and Nikon are having a huge influence on this trend by not entering the mirrorless market.
Canon has entered the mirrorless market and hasn't made a dent. Nikon is only rumors, I have to see it to believe it.

I hope they both step up to the plate and deliver something awesome, especially FF. More competition for Sony will be a good thing, but their first itteration better be good and comparable (price and performance) to the A9, A7Riii and A7iii otherwise they will deliver a stillborn.
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pieter, aka pegelli

Guillermo Luijk

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #35 on: April 26, 2018, 09:04:48 AM »

Canon has entered the mirrorless market and hasn't made a dent. Nikon is only rumors, I have to see it to believe it.

I should have been more clear: Canon hasn't entered the mirrorless market with a competent product. In your strict criteria Nikon has also entered the mirrorless market with their fantastic Nikon 1 BTW.

No one is going to replace his 6D, 5D or even 80D with a mediocre APS mirrorless camera with a poor lens portfolio. And still they sold much more than the product deserved just because of the huge Canon customer base, legion of fans and sales channels.

Regards!
« Last Edit: April 26, 2018, 09:08:01 AM by Guillermo Luijk »
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BJL

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #36 on: April 26, 2018, 09:05:20 AM »

Canon has entered the mirrorless market and hasn't made a dent.
Canon has so far made a "restrained" effort with its mirrorless system, with very few lenses offered specifically for it, for example. Yet recent surveys of sales in Japan have Canon second only to Sony in mirrorless system camera sales (though I am fairly sure that the MFT total Olympus + Panasonic is ahead of Canon.)

I suspect that in a forum like this, "making a dent" requires getting the attention of professionals and demanding amateurs, who are clearly not yet being served or pursued by Canon's mirrorless offerings.

P. S. "Ninja'd by Guillermo!" as they say in some forums.
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hogloff

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #37 on: April 26, 2018, 09:19:12 AM »

I'm not talking about outselling, That might indeed happen in 3-5 years allthough I wouldn't be surprized if it takes longer.

But given the many times more DSLR units out there from many years of outselling mirrorless I think it will be 10 years + before the use of mirrorless gets even close to being used as much as DSLR's.

Canon is already in their 2nd generation mirrorless and it has hardly made a dent, Nikon mirrorless is still in rumor territory. I think both will have a steep uphill battle to compete against the long established mirrorless pioneers like Fuji, Sony, Olympus and Panasonic (and even Leica).

Actually Canon mirrorless outsells all other mirrorless cameras in Japan, the only market that I know of with a breakdown.

Once mirrorless takes over, yeh DSLR usage will still outnumber mirrorless usage...but how much new developments will be put into the DSLR cameras versus the mirrorless cameras. Manufactures don't make any money off the existing cameras...they want to sell new cameras.
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pegelli

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #38 on: April 26, 2018, 09:28:38 AM »

Yet recent surveys of sales in Japan have Canon second only to Sony in mirrorless system camera sales (though I am fairly sure that the MFT total Olympus + Panasonic is ahead of Canon.)

Actually Canon mirrorless outsells all other mirrorless cameras in Japan, the only market that I know of with a breakdown.

 ???  Any sources so we can see who is right?
« Last Edit: April 26, 2018, 03:05:07 PM by pegelli »
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pieter, aka pegelli

pegelli

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Re: DSLR vs Mirrorless trends (CIPA)
« Reply #39 on: April 26, 2018, 09:32:12 AM »

I should have been more clear: Canon hasn't entered the mirrorless market with a competent product. In your strict criteria Nikon has also entered the mirrorless market with their fantastic Nikon 1 BTW.
The question is will Canon ever enter with a more competent mirrorless, hopefully a FF?

And with mirrorless I bracketed between MFT and FF, leaving out smaller (Nikon) and bigger (Fuji/Hasselblad), but strictly speaking they could be considered as well
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