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Author Topic: Climate Change: Science and Issues  (Read 123038 times)

pegelli

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #500 on: January 03, 2018, 01:08:59 pm »

I'm beginning to wonder whether or not that "scientific consensus" among geologists in the early fifties wasn't right after all. Maybe we ARE on the verge of a new ice age......

Not at all, Pieter. I'm not speculating about anything at all. Unlike some others (who shall remain nameless) I know better than to speculate about crap like this. Believe it or not guys, you don't need to go hide in a closet. I'll be all right.

Indeed, maybe not speculating, but reading your first post you're not sure about it all either ;)
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RSL

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #501 on: January 03, 2018, 03:20:35 pm »

Indeed, maybe not speculating, but reading your first post you're not sure about it all either ;)

You betcha. When it comes to climate I've learned not to be sure about anything. That's why I roll on the floor laughing when I see the kinds of certainties pompously expounded in this thread.  ;D ;D 8)
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pegelli

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #502 on: January 03, 2018, 05:11:15 pm »

You betcha. When it comes to climate I've learned not to be sure about anything. That's why I roll on the floor laughing when I see the kinds of certainties pompously expounded in this thread.  ;D ;D 8)
So you're also not sure it's not CO2 from fossil fuel burning that's causing the current warming? ;)
Or is that the only thing you are sure about  ::)
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pieter, aka pegelli

RSL

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #503 on: January 03, 2018, 08:01:18 pm »

If you believe CO2 has an effect, Pieter, your next question should be: how much of an effect has CO2? Anybody who believes all warming is caused by CO2 evidently never has walked out and felt the sun on his skin. Sure, sun on the skin is a local effect, but climate is affected by many things. I'd never say that CO2 doesn't affect warming, but the idea that all warming is caused by CO2 is absurd. Furthermore, I don't see any reliable indication that the "globe" is warming. I believe that parts of the globe are warming. I also believe other parts of the globe are cooling. I also believe parts of the globe are staying at pretty consistent temperatures. Bottom line: what I see is another synthetic panic driven by politics. I'm almost 88 years old and I've seen a lot of these. This is just another one. "The sky is falling. The sky is falling."
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #504 on: January 03, 2018, 09:03:04 pm »

I think nothing has to be discounted, you only need to look at very long time (moving) averages to demonstrate warming or cooling and filter out day-to-day (and week-to-week, month-to-month) weather variations.
But even measuring climate change in a human time span of a life time or a couple of hundred years is a perturbation compared to the earth's history or even the time frame of an Ice Age. Climate change supporters have claimed the higher temperatures over the last three or four summers as being part of global warming.   Is fours years enough to consider what's happening part of climate change?    Someone reported today that the temperature over the last week has not been colder as a week's average in more than one hundred years. Can global warming denialists claim that proves that the climate is getting colder and a new ice age is beginning?  Who's deciding when it counts and when it doesn't? 

Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #505 on: January 03, 2018, 09:19:17 pm »

Interesting chart and explanation of changes in climate over the last 4500 years.  Multiple warm and cold periods.
http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm

Ray

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #506 on: January 03, 2018, 09:47:46 pm »

Here's an interesting history of the IPCC, which describes how politics has interfered with the scientific process in order to create an apparent consensus and an unscientific degree of certainty on many climate-change issues.

The article is a bit long, but well worth reading for those who have a bit of curiosity about  the subject.

https://judithcurry.com/2018/01/03/manufacturing-consensus-the-early-history-of-the-ipcc/
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #507 on: January 03, 2018, 10:35:48 pm »

Ray, in reading that article, it pointed out that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the UN governmental body for assessing the science related to climate change, not a scientific panel.  UN bureaucrats decide which scientific articles are important.  Why am I not surprised?

pegelli

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #508 on: January 04, 2018, 02:11:16 am »

If you believe CO2 has an effect, Pieter, your next question should be: how much of an effect has CO2? Anybody who believes all warming is caused by CO2 evidently never has walked out and felt the sun on his skin. Sure, sun on the skin is a local effect, but climate is affected by many things. I'd never say that CO2 doesn't affect warming, but the idea that all warming is caused by CO2 is absurd. Furthermore, I don't see any reliable indication that the "globe" is warming. I believe that parts of the globe are warming. I also believe other parts of the globe are cooling. I also believe parts of the globe are staying at pretty consistent temperatures. Bottom line: what I see is another synthetic panic driven by politics. I'm almost 88 years old and I've seen a lot of these. This is just another one. "The sky is falling. The sky is falling."
Russ, you didn't answer my question and I hope you don't mind that I think this post of you fits right into the description you gave about others in post #501. 
« Last Edit: January 04, 2018, 02:19:49 am by pegelli »
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pieter, aka pegelli

pegelli

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #509 on: January 04, 2018, 02:19:06 am »

  Who's deciding when it counts and when it doesn't?
Nobody, all data count. When you want to look ahead one or two generations you need to look back for at least the same time and then study cause and effect relationships. Is that all known and perfectly understood, I think not. Is it enough understood that humans and the extra CO2 they put in the air has a significant effect on the current warming? I think yes. I just smile at the deniers using the uncertainties about what we know as a scapegoat for their arguments. I think it's better to look at what we know and expand that rather than focus on we don't know and use that as an excuse to sit on our hands.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #510 on: January 04, 2018, 07:48:15 am »

Here's an interesting article that points to a moderating impact on Antarctic ice shelf melting:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/01/03/large-antarctic-snowfall-increases-could-counter-sea-level-rise-scientists-say/?utm_term=.b647687f61ab  Increased snowfall in some areas may mitigate the melting effect as it simply recycles moisture back.

ALSO:  PLEASE CEASE ALL PERSONAL ATTACKS.  LAST WARNING BEFORE THIS THREAD GETS SHUT DOWN.
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Ray

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #511 on: January 04, 2018, 09:09:06 am »

I think it's better to look at what we know and expand that rather than focus on we don't know and use that as an excuse to sit on our hands.

Good point. Following is what I understand is known with a high degreee of certainty.

(1) Increased CO2 levels increase plant growth in general, including the crops we grow for essential food.

(2) Warming, whatever the cause, results in increased evaporation, which in turn results in increased rainfall, which contributes to increased food production and a greening of the planet, in conjunction with increased CO2 levels.

(3) Warming periods have occurred frequently in the past, followed by cooling periods. These past changes in climate have had little or nothing  to do with human emissions of CO2.

(4) Warm periods in the past have tended to correlate with the flourishment of past civilizations such as the Roman Empire and various Dynasties in China.
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RSL

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #512 on: January 04, 2018, 09:48:43 am »

I think it's better to look at what we know and expand that rather than focus on we don't know and use that as an excuse to sit on our hands.
Okay, Pieter, tell me what the alternative to "sitting on our hands" might be.

The "Paris Accord?" Utterly worthless. In order for it to have any value at all you first have to conclude:

(1) That there's such a thing as global warming (Nobody seems to be worrying that we're in a period of global cooling, so "climate change" must mean global warming. Right?) So far, in spite of truckloads of politically-based "studies," nobody's been able actually to demonstrate that the globe is warming. That's why the scarier term got changed to the more vague term "climate change."

(2) That humans are causing global warming. If you can't show that global warming is taking place, demonstrating that humans are causing something that isn't taking place is a tough row to hoe. But more politically-based "studies" attempt to do exactly that.

(3) That a political dance like the Accord actually can get humans to stop doing whatever it is they're doing that's causing politicians to try to scare us. That would mean getting China, India, etc., etc., to reduce their emissions. Lots of luck with that.

So again, what's the alternative to "sitting on our hands?" I'd suggest sitting on a couch instead. It's more comfortable, and embraced by comfort we might be able to stop worrying and start actually thinking. But, to add another cliche, that's probably a bridge too far. 
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pegelli

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #513 on: January 04, 2018, 10:07:45 am »

Okay, Pieter, tell me what the alternative to "sitting on our hands" might be.

The "Paris Accord?" Utterly worthless. In order for it to have any value at all you first have to conclude:

(1) That there's such a thing as global warming (Nobody seems to be worrying that we're in a period of global cooling, so "climate change" must mean global warming. Right?) So far, in spite of truckloads of politically-based "studies," nobody's been able actually to demonstrate that the globe is warming. That's why the scarier term got changed to the more vague term "climate change."

(2) That humans are causing global warming. If you can't show that global warming is taking place, demonstrating that humans are causing something that isn't taking place is a tough row to hoe. But more politically-based "studies" attempt to do exactly that.

(3) That a political dance like the Accord actually can get humans to stop doing whatever it is they're doing that's causing politicians to try to scare us. That would mean getting China, India, etc., etc., to reduce their emissions. Lots of luck with that.

So again, what's the alternative to "sitting on our hands?" I'd suggest sitting on a couch instead. It's more comfortable, and embraced by comfort we might be able to stop worrying and start actually thinking. But, to add another cliche, that's probably a bridge too far.
Russ, if you don't believe in Global Warming sitting on a couch is probably a good plan for you so by all means go ahead ;)

Another good alternative is going out and shoot pictures.
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pieter, aka pegelli

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #514 on: January 04, 2018, 10:38:42 am »

Good point. Following is what I understand is known with a high degreee of certainty.

(1) Increased CO2 levels increase plant growth in general, including the crops we grow for essential food.
It also promotes the growth of invasive plant species some of which may require herbicide control.  This is not necessarily bad but we cannot overlook the development of resistance.  Improved cultivation practices will be required here.

Quote
(2) Warming, whatever the cause, results in increased evaporation, which in turn results in increased rainfall, which contributes to increased food production and a greening of the planet, in conjunction with increased CO2 levels.
Only if the precipitation is regular and widely spread.  there is no indication that this will happen though we don't have a lot of data yet.  The Sahel area of Africa seems not to be getting any greater amounts of precipitation than has been historically observed.  Some areas continue to experience drought.  Also, do not overlook violent storms that can release huge amounts of precipitation in very short periods of time cause destruction of crops if they are ill timed.  Increased precipitation can also lead to leeching of important nutrients from the soil if conservation practices are not followed.[/quote]

Quote
(3) Warming periods have occurred frequently in the past, followed by cooling periods. These past changes in climate have had little or nothing  to do with human emissions of CO2.
There has never been the level of human and industrial activity that we are presently seeing.  I don't think this argument holds up at all.

Quote
(4) Warm periods in the past have tended to correlate with the flourishment of past civilizations such as the Roman Empire and various Dynasties in China.
If true, what explains the relative lack of civilization development in various parts of Africa.
[/quote]
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #515 on: January 04, 2018, 12:35:13 pm »

Climate Change is not new nor earth shaking.

From Ecclesiastes 1:1-11.

1 The words of the Preacher, the son of David, king in Jerusalem.



2
Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher,
vanity of vanities; all is vanity.

3
What profit hath a man of all his labour
which he taketh under the sun?

4
One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh:
but the earth abideth for ever.

5
The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down,
and hasteth to his place where he arose.

6
The wind goeth toward the south,
and turneth about unto the north;
it whirleth about continually,
and the wind returneth again according to his circuits.

7
All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full;
unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again.

8
All things are full of labour; man cannot utter it:
the eye is not satisfied with seeing, nor the ear filled with hearing.

9
The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:
and there is no new thing under the sun.

10
Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new?
it hath been already of old time, which was before us.

11
There is no remembrance of former things;
neither shall there be any remembrance of things
that are to come with those that shall come after.

RSL

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #516 on: January 04, 2018, 03:37:34 pm »

Another good alternative is going out and shoot pictures.

Actually, I thought that's what Luminous Landscape was supposed to be about.

 :) :) :)
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #517 on: January 04, 2018, 04:02:09 pm »

Russ, if you don't believe in Global Warming sitting on a couch is probably a good plan for you so by all means go ahead ;)

Another good alternative is going out and shoot pictures.
Well, I would except we seem to be having Global Cooling.  So the best I could do was take a picture of the blizzard through the glass door. 

RSL

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #518 on: January 04, 2018, 04:08:52 pm »

Good for you, Alan. After being born and raised in Michigan, spending several years in Great Falls, Montana, and more years in Beausejour, Manitoba, my advice, based on experience, is: stay inside. ;D
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #519 on: January 04, 2018, 04:49:08 pm »

Well, I do use the grill when I make steaks, even throughout the winter.  I hop in and out.  I think I'll pass tonight though and cook indoors.  I'll reheat a veal parmigiana hero I've frozen.  Staying inside is good advice.  My wife wants to move to Florida.   I wish the climate would warm up here in New Jersey.  The state should switch from nuclear plants to fossil fuels to rush climate change.   
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