Climate Change: Science and Issues

[Alan Klein]

Does anyone have the answer to my questions? What caused the melting of the snow and glaciers over the last 12,000 years that caused the seas to rise hundreds of feet and would that cause be part of why the seas have risen a few inches over the last hundred and fifty years?

[Alan Klein]

...A new report has found that 38 percent of US jobs will be replaced by robots and artificial intelligence by the early 2030s. Interestingly, Germany, the Europe's strongest economy and manufacturing powerhouse has quadrupled the amount of industrial robots it has installed in the last 20 years, without causing human redundancies.

Les, that's an interesting statistic.   How have the Germans done that?  Maybe we can learn something from them.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Les, that's an interesting statistic.   How have the Germans done that?  Maybe we can learn something from them.

The power of weaseling statistics: you increase the number of robots from one to four, you quadrupled them. Easy. Not saying that's what's happening in Germany, just that "quadrupling" as an indicator is meaningless. Besides, Germany has been loosing (its own) population for years.

[Rob C]

The power of weaseling statistics: you increase the number of robots from one to four, you quadrupled them. Easy. Not saying that's what's happening in Germany, just that "quadrupling" as an indicator is meaningless. Besides, Germany has been loosing (its own) population for years.

Which has been Angela's big fear for the future: the projected, almost total absence of drones. Hence the allowed influx. I don't believe she or any of them in politics has the slightest bit of sympathy with them for their own (humanitarian?) sake, just for the convenience they can represent. Trouble, of course, is controlling them properly once they are in!

I was watching Sky News this morning, and learned that Lord Adonis has resigned for his beliefs in the negative impact that Brexit will have on Britain's economy. Up steps Iain Duncan Smith, arch Brexiteer, saying that it was right that Adonois should be gone, that arguing against the "democratic decision" was terrible, and that is stank of elitism! Elitism! from him, ye gods! Clever theft of a left-wing mantra and turning it against anyone with a different belief.

Wiki thinks:

"Personal life[edit]
He married Elizabeth "Betsy" Fremantle, daughter of the 5th Baron Cottesloe, in 1982. The couple have four children,[77] and live in a country house belonging to his father-in-law's estate in Swanbourne, Buckinghamshire.[78]

Duncan Smith has been reported to support both Tottenham Hotspur,[79] where he holds a season ticket,[80] and Aston Villa.[81]"

The vote was so close, but suddenly, the almost half-nation that opposed tribal suicide (almost a cult, you could say, for the new Briton) is elitist!

You have to watch these people mouthing it to believe it is beng mouthed. And yes, you also have to watch with care the news that you are exposed to with your corn flakes. You could choke to death: manslaughter by politician, no less. They're trying hard to get me!

;-)

[LesPalenik]

The power of weaseling statistics: you increase the number of robots from one to four, you quadrupled them. Easy. Not saying that's what's happening in Germany, just that "quadrupling" as an indicator is meaningless. Besides, Germany has been loosing (its own) population for years.

No doubt, many stats are misleading or manipulated. Also, similar to USA, many of the new jobs are low paid jobs without any benefits. However, the number of jobs in Germany has increased any way you measure it. Below are a few interesting articles explaining some of the facts and reasons behind the job growth in Germany.

Employment Rate in Germany increased to 74.80 percent in the second quarter of 2017 from 74.60 percent in the first quarter of 2017. Employment Rate in Germany averaged 68.65 percent from 1992 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 75.30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 and a record low of 63.60 percent in the second quarter of 1997.
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/employment-rate

Considering how Germany anchors a European continent plagued by high unemployment and slow growth, its labor market is on fire. The number of unemployed has been halved over the past decade. With just 2.6 million people out of work, the German unemployment rate has declined to 5.9%. The country’s exports reached nearly $1.3 trillion in 2016. That’s roughly, and remarkably, half of Germany’s GDP, amounting to about 9% of world exports that year.

The economy is doing well despite Germany’s accommodation of more than 1 million refugees since 2015. For three years now the German government has been running a budget surplus. Figures for 2016 forecast a surplus of $25 billion.
https://hbr.org/2017/03/the-real-reason-the-german-labor-market-is-booming

Black market employers in Germany are facing hard times, a new study has found, because better-paid legal work has been shrinking the ranks of those forced into untaxed, cash-in-hand jobs.
http://www.dw.com/en/german-job-growth-shrinks-shadow-economy/a-19020108

It's not only Germany. Even a small country as Ireland is growing their jobs at impressive rate (although mainly around Dublin and Belfast).
Other important fact is that the U.S. market has six times more retail square feet per person that the United Kingdom (or other European countries), with 2,375 square feet per 100 inhabitants. Way too much. No wonder, many of the shops and department stores in USA are going belly up, along with thousands of jobs.

https://www.businessworld.ie/news-from-ireland/Irish-employment-growth-set-to-continue-according-to-report-568713.html
http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en-us/news/3775/life-liberty-and-the-pursuit-of-retail-space
 

[Alan Klein]

So Les. what does Germany do to keep it's employment and industrial production so high?  I know that culturally they've always been hard workers.  But specifically, what government and private policies have contributed to it?  Let's learn from them.

[Alan Klein]

...It's not only Germany. Even a small country as Ireland is growing their jobs at impressive rate (although mainly around Dublin and Belfast).
Other important fact is that the U.S. market has six times more retail square feet per person that the United Kingdom (or other European countries), with 2,375 square feet per 100 inhabitants. Way too much. No wonder, many of the shops and department stores in USA are going belly up, along with thousands of jobs.

https://www.businessworld.ie/news-from-ireland/Irish-employment-growth-set-to-continue-according-to-report-568713.html
http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en-us/news/3775/life-liberty-and-the-pursuit-of-retail-space
 

Unfortunately America has decreased its manufacturing prowess and has become a nation of consumers of services.  So rather than building factories, we build shopping malls. Then we hire minimum wage employees to move foreign goods around the stores to sell to other Americans whose dollars go to China, Germany, Japan, and other foreign manufacturing economies.  If the dollar collapses due to all our debt and printing of dollars, foreign products will explode in price making them unaffordable in America.  Americans will have to go back to the farm to feed ourselves. 

[LesPalenik]

Unfortunately America has decreased its manufacturing prowess and has become a nation of consumers of services.  So rather than building factories, we build shopping malls. Then we hire minimum wage employees to move foreign goods around the stores to sell to other Americans whose dollars go to China, Germany, Japan, and other foreign manufacturing economies.  If the dollar collapses due to all our debt and printing of dollars, foreign products will explode in price making them unaffordable in America.  Americans will have to go back to the farm to feed ourselves.

You hit the nail on the head, Alan. When it comes to manufacturing and applied R&D, Canada fares even worse than USA, It relies too much on exporting raw materials out of the country without adding any value to it.

[Eric Myrvaagnes]

Just to try to get this thread back on "Climate Change: Science and Issues," here is a piece by a climate scientist on how we can tell what the effects of global warming are:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/29/opinion/sunday/climate-change-global-warming.html

[Alan Klein]

Just to try to get this thread back on "Climate Change: Science and Issues," here is a piece by a climate scientist on how we can tell what the effects of global warming are:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/29/opinion/sunday/climate-change-global-warming.html

Negative article about global warming from influenctial papers like the NY Times are unfortunately theiir mainstay.  They have enormous effect on the subject.  However, when all or most of what you get is negative news, that's all you believe.  It's this kind of biased reporting that gives doubt to many people that the damages from global warming are being hyped.  I'm not saying that warming doesn't cause problems.  It's just that there's no balance in the reportage.

Well, here's an article from NASA that originally came from Nature.  Using instrumentation from NASA and NOAA, it posits that the greening of the earth has increased to an amount of leaves equal to twice the size of the United States over the last 35 years.   About 70% of the greening is from CO2.  More vegetation allows increase of all species that need vegetation. While the article goes on to tell how "bad" climate change is (well, of course, it originally came from Nature magazine), it would be nice if the NY Times would have articles that give the positive effects of CO2.  Naysayers complain that supporters have their thumb on the scale. 
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth

[pegelli]

It's this kind of biased reporting that gives doubt to many people that the damages from global warming are being hyped.  I'm not saying that warming doesn't cause problems.  It's just that there's no balance in the reportage.

But if it is giving problems shouldn't we do something about that, despite the fact there are some positives as well? I don't have a problem with what you call "unbalanced" reportage, I think the negatives require action (and therefore need attention), I'll take the positives as they come so I have no problem hearing less about it and getting less "thumb on the scale" with policy makers.

[Alan Klein]

But if it is giving problems shouldn't we do something about that, despite the fact there are some positives as well? I don't have a problem with what you call "unbalanced" reportage, I think the negatives require action (and therefore need attention), I'll take the positives as they come so I have no problem hearing less about it and getting less "thumb on the scale" with policy makers.

I think the negatives are being hyped by institutions, businesses, countries, politicians and scientists for monetary and political advantages.  By them avoiding discussing the benefits and options on how to deal with changes, it seems they're being dishonest.  That creates suspicions especially when their recommendations will take money from people to support their plans.  I'm always suspicious when people tell me that if I spend more on their ideas, I'll be better off. 

The whole subject is not balanced.  When was the last time you saw a TV program on nature that mentioned warming is greening the earth and also causing issues with low lying islands, for example?  That although many polar bears are having difficulty with less ice, their populations are growing and we're finding that they're learning to adapt finding other food like salmon.  When was the last time we heard a scientist or politician suggest that we stop funding flood insurance with tax money to support the habitation of coastal areas that are open to storms destruction rather than pushing the idea that somehow we can protect those rich owners by changing CO2 fifty years from now?  How about allowing the money for green energy to provide stilts for those homes in flood areas.  The problem is we don't discuss variables about what's really going on nor the ways to deal with them.  It's all one-sided.

[Alan Klein]

You hit the nail on the head, Alan. When it comes to manufacturing and applied R&D, Canada fares even worse than USA, It relies too much on exporting raw materials out of the country without adding any value to it.

America's debt is over 100% to GDP compared to Canada's 66% to their GDP.  So you're still doing better.  Both Canada and America are rich in recourses.  There's only so much value so can add to oil, gold, copper, etc.  If there is a surplus, selling it to others gives wealth to the people.  But I agree that it would be nice to let's say make more copper electrical wire to sell to the world rather than just the copper.  Then you'd increase the jobs and wealth to the country.  Unfortunately, countries like China still have a billion people who would like to get into the middle class like the 400 million of their compatriots.  And they're willing to work for rice now so we can't compete in a lot of areas. 

Getting back to CO2, most people would rather spend on infrastructure like bridges and roads and airports, rather than green energy.  With the former, it effects their lives more directly.  In this time of limited resources (America is running a deficit of $600 billion this year), they're not too concerned about an extra 4 inches of sea rise fifty years from now.  They're concerned about feeding their kids and sending them to college.

[Alan Klein]

New Year's is coming up in a few a hours.  And I know we've gotten into heated disputes during the last twelve months.  So if I said anything that offended anyone (and probably did), I apologize.   And I want to take this time to wish everyone and their families a happy and healthy New Year.

[PeterAit]

For anyone interested in the real science of climate change and how scientists are determining that severe weather events, such as Harvey, are made worse  by climate change, here is a clearly written and detailed article that you should read.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/29/opinion/sunday/climate-change-global-warming.html

[Alan Goldhammer]

New Year's is coming up in a few a hours.  And I know we've gotten into heated disputes during the last twelve months.  So if I said anything that offended anyone (and probably did), I apologize.   And I want to take this time to wish everyone and their families a happy and healthy New Year.

+1!!!!!

[pegelli]

That creates suspicions

Ill doers are ill deemers, genuinly opening up your mind to different options and viewpoints usually takes care of ill-founded suspicions.

The whole subject is not balanced.  When was the last time you saw a TV program on nature that mentioned warming is greening the earth and also causing issues with low lying islands, for example?  That although many polar bears are having difficulty with less ice, their populations are growing and we're finding that they're learning to adapt finding other food like salmon.  When was the last time we heard a scientist or politician suggest that we stop funding flood insurance with tax money to support the habitation of coastal areas that are open to storms destruction rather than pushing the idea that somehow we can protect those rich owners by changing CO2 fifty years from now?  How about allowing the money for green energy to provide stilts for those homes in flood areas.  The problem is we don't discuss variables about what's really going on nor the ways to deal with them.  It's all one-sided.

First, it's not television or media who make policy, it's the policy makers and then the people who execute the resulting plans. Nobody stops anybody from bringing good ideas to the table how to deal with the problems, but whining and being suspicious is counter productive and doesn't solve anything.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... genuinly opening up your mind to different options and viewpoints...

Says the "100% consensus" 

[pegelli]

Says the "100% consensus" 

Where did I say that?

Putting words in my mouth I never said doesn't make your credibility one bit better 

[Two23]

So Les. what does Germany do to keep it's employment and industrial production so high?  I know that culturally they've always been hard workers.  But specifically, what government and private policies have contributed to it?  Let's learn from them.

From what I've read, rather than get rid of full time workers, in Germany they tend to keep the employees but cut the hours.  Thus, instead of starting with 10 workers working 80 hours per day and then laying off 2 to work 64 hours, they will keep all 10 and divide the 64 hours between them. 

As for robots/software costing jobs, I'll dive into history.  One hundred years ago on the Northern Plains (U.S.) where I live, they would typically hire about 20 men to harvest a half section of wheat (and 4 women to cook meals.)  (1 section = 1 sq. mile.)  There would also be about a dozen or so horses.  Today these same fields are harvested with massive machinery--the new Case wheat head is fifty feet wide!  Three men can cut a half section of wheat in about a day.  (One man in the combine, one* pulling the grain cart, and one driving the grain truck.)  There used to be one family (typically six people) per quarter section, or 24 per section.  Now there is one famly (four people) per section.  The surrounding small towns could no longer support retail stores and have become mostly abandoned.  At one time in my state well over 50% of the jobs directly involved farming, now it's about 3%.  A massive number of jobs have disappeared.  However, the unemployment rate in my state is 2.5% (up slightly from 1.8%.)  So, what happened?  My oldest son went to college and now has a job with Premiere Bank in the IT dept.  My youngest son has temporarily dropped out of college at 20 years old to take his first job--a video game graphics programmer with Microsoft making >$60/hr.  Neither of these jobs existed when they were born.  Despite our owning a farm, neither of my kids know how to run a combine or even a tractor.  My grandfather, a production foreman for Procter & Gamble during the 1930s, often told me, "There's always work for an honest man."


Kent in SD

Photos:
Cutting wheat, Groton SD August 2016
Theshing crew, Webster SD, August 1909

*There is now software that allows a Case combine and tractor
to communicate, allowing a "drone" tractor to pull a grain cart
alongside the combine to load the grain & then take it back to
the truck to offload.