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Author Topic: Climate Change: Science and Issues  (Read 123027 times)

Tim Lookingbill

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #440 on: December 28, 2017, 08:09:21 pm »

Just for scale and we do need some perspective on how severe us puny humans are destroying our planet, I'ld suggest everyone watch "Day The Dinosaurs Died".

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/evolution/day-dinosaurs-died.html

It provides a further and more detailed investigation describing the scale of magnitude in regards to the size of the rock (7 miles) and the physics and chemistry involved in how it changed the climate of the Earth globally. They even took core samples of the outer peak ring impact crater off the Mexico coast that line up very precisely to time and location of the KT line seen in rock formation across the world. It's a level of precision in explaining what happened and it relates to what it takes to change the climate.

Not sure, but just one 7 mile rock hitting the Earth makes CO2 concerns somewhat petty by comparison. The researchers and scientists said in the NOVA piece that if that rock hit out in the Pacific or Atlantic ocean none of us would be here discussing this. Now that's some pretty profound perspective.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #441 on: December 28, 2017, 08:22:47 pm »

Thanks for posting that article, Bill. Unfortunately, the video in the supplied link doesn't work in Canada.
I found another online article by BBC about that event. The most shocking fact is that the energy released by the large asteroid was equivalent to 10 billion Hiroshima A-bombs.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-39922998
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Tim Lookingbill

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #442 on: December 28, 2017, 09:01:21 pm »

Thanks for posting that article, Bill. Unfortunately, the video in the supplied link doesn't work in Canada.
I found another online article by BBC about that event. The most shocking fact is that the energy released by the large asteroid was equivalent to 10 billion Hiroshima A-bombs.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-39922998

You're welcome...and my name is not Bill. It's Tim.

And yes, that's what the NOVA piece indicated about the amount of energy released from the asteroid impact that changed the climate globally.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #443 on: December 29, 2017, 08:33:23 am »

Trump promised more work for our coal industry.  Exports have gone up considerably since he became president. Trump is keeping his word.  If the Chinese, Indians and other people around the world need coal, why shouldn't it be American coal?  I don't see the Australians turning away the business.
There is actually less work in the coal industry if one is counting workers.  This will continue as the cheapest coal comes from surface mining.  Largest coal producing state in the US is Wyoming where it is all surface mined.  A lot of this coal goes to India and China as you can judge from the rail statistics for Burlington Northern (one of Warren Buffet's companies).  If you are judging Trump's success by workforce count, he has failed.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #444 on: December 29, 2017, 08:40:31 am »

Bart, I'm not going to continue in this befuddled discussion beyond this post. The kind of "scientific consensus" that ruled out the possibility of an ICBM was exactly what you're talking about. There was plenty of peer-review, and a vast majority of scientists in the know came to the same conclusion.
I can tell you from my own family history that you are wrong.  My father's first cousin was an aerospace engineer first at Convair in San Diego and then at Hughes in Los Angeles.  Convair was working on these types of projects in the early 1950s and developed both ICBMs and the Atlas Centaur which was used by NASA.

Wikipedia Link to Atlas development:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SM-65_Atlas
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #445 on: December 29, 2017, 09:06:24 am »

I can tell you from my own family history that you are wrong.  My father's first cousin was an aerospace engineer first at Convair in San Diego and then at Hughes in Los Angeles.  Convair was working on these types of projects in the early 1950s and developed both ICBMs and the Atlas Centaur which was used by NASA.

Wikipedia Link to Atlas development:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SM-65_Atlas

Which illustrates the difference between on the one hand (hopefully) scientifically educated individuals working towards tactical/strategical goals with a (somewhat) limited budget and a political force to set some priorities, and on the other hand (academic) scientists exploring/expanding the boundaries of our knowledge.

It also suggests that the general public (including policymakers at government levels) need to better understand how we form our thoughts and opinions. Here is an interesting article that addresses those issues:

People who know how the news is made resist conspiratorial thinking
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/12/knowing-how-the-news-media-works-protects-people-from-conspiracy-theories/

Cheers,
Bart
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== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #447 on: December 29, 2017, 09:51:02 am »

GIGO

Explain, if you intend to discuss something.

Cheers,
Bart
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== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #448 on: December 29, 2017, 10:14:18 am »

Meaning garbage assumptions/survey questions lead to garbage conclusions. If one ever wondered how come so many polls/surveys led to spectacularly wrong predictions/conclusions, look no further. The way questions are asked (consciously or subconsciously influenced by the pollster's own bias) lead or nudge the responders to answer the certain way. The most ridiculous example from the article: β€œI am in control of the information I get from the news media.” What does it even mean? How does one respond to such a question? How does one interpret whatever the answer is? If the answer is Yes or No, and even if on a scale of 1 to 10, what, for instance, does "Yes" mean? "Yes, I am in control..." might mean "Yes, I believe what I read" or it might mean "Yes, I am very sceptical when I read..." Both sides might feel they are "in control." 

LesPalenik

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #449 on: December 29, 2017, 10:18:22 am »

Explain, if you intend to discuss something.

Cheers,
Bart

In the context of Climate Change, GIGO could stand for the conversion of liquid gas to gaseous state
Example: Gasoline In, CO2 gas Out
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RSL

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #450 on: December 29, 2017, 10:30:15 am »

I can tell you from my own family history that you are wrong.  My father's first cousin was an aerospace engineer first at Convair in San Diego and then at Hughes in Los Angeles.  Convair was working on these types of projects in the early 1950s and developed both ICBMs and the Atlas Centaur which was used by NASA.

Wikipedia Link to Atlas development:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SM-65_Atlas

Good grief! Am I actually going to get back into this absurdity? Well, not for long. I can't believe this fiasco is still going on after almost 500 head-rattlings.

Alan, development of an ICBM involves a few small things beside launching an Atlas into space. There are minor problems such as accurate targeting, and a nuclear device that'll survive both launch and reentry. And yes, you're right. By the end of the fifties the world had ICBM's, though, to avoid being impolite, I'll just say that the Wikipedia article leaves out a few minor details.

But why do you think the US committed itself to the SAGE system for air defense? When I came home from Korea shortly after the end of that war and was assigned to Air Defense Command, which later became part of NORAD, we had radar sites all over the northern US and southern Canada. Each site had controllers (including me) capable of controlling fighter intercepts against incoming bombers. The SAGE system was going to leave the radars in place but remove the controllers from the radar sites and put them into a very few central blockhouses where, with the help of first-generation computers, they'd take the place of the controllers scattered over what we used to call the "highline." I was Director of Combat Operations at a SAGE center in the mid seventies, so I'm intimately familiar with that operation too.

If ICBM's were a reality, it wouldn't make sense to reduce the number of targets the damned things would have to encompass. If you could knock out a few SAGE centers with ICBMs, there'd no longer be any defense against incoming bombers. The whole attack plan would be simplified and become much less costly. Yes, if it survived, SAGE would be a great improvement against bombers, but since it was absolutely defenseless against ICBMs it couldn't possibly survive.

But we went ahead with SAGE, to which we committed in the early to mid fifties, and which, to me, always was a monstrous and immensely expensive strategic blunder. Why do you suppose we did that, Alan, if we were convinced ICBMs were on the way?

In the end, we lucked out, and we now can control fighters from airborne early warning and control aircraft, which are survivable.

In any case, none of this has a damned thing to do with "climate change" dogma from the true believers.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #451 on: December 29, 2017, 11:51:22 am »

Last night I was watching a program that showed how there was no San Francisco bay 12000 years ago.  The warming since then has raised the seas hundreds of feet creating the bay. We seem to be in-between ice ages, maybe still warming up a little regardless of CO2.  So it's been melting for 12000 years since the height of the last ice age.  99% of the melting was long before man had any effect.  So what causes the ice ages?  What other thing is effecting it and how do we know that the "slight" increase we're seeing now is not just mainly part of whatever causes the ice age cycles?  Or if CO2 is having an effect, it's rather very minor compared to the main cause?

Tim Lookingbill

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #452 on: December 29, 2017, 03:05:04 pm »

Last night I was watching a program that showed how there was no San Francisco bay 12000 years ago.  The warming since then has raised the seas hundreds of feet creating the bay. We seem to be in-between ice ages, maybe still warming up a little regardless of CO2.  So it's been melting for 12000 years since the height of the last ice age.  99% of the melting was long before man had any effect.  So what causes the ice ages?  What other thing is effecting it and how do we know that the "slight" increase we're seeing now is not just mainly part of whatever causes the ice age cycles?  Or if CO2 is having an effect, it's rather very minor compared to the main cause?

Along similar lines regarding how weather created ice behaves in different parts of the world my weather man down here in Texas says due to the temperature inversion where hot air is sitting on top of cold air close to the ground my central Texas area will not get snow. But several weeks ago we got snow but the temperature at ground level was above freezing (about 38 degrees) and it took all day for the snow to melt as the temps warmed up above 38 degrees throughout the day.

I'm scratching my head now on trying to understand enough why the weather behaves very inconsistently and unpredictably for me to believe CO2 is the only thing that's causing the ice caps to melt.
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Rob C

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #453 on: December 29, 2017, 03:10:17 pm »

Last night I was watching a program that showed how there was no San Francisco bay 12000 years ago.  The warming since then has raised the seas hundreds of feet creating the bay. We seem to be in-between ice ages, maybe still warming up a little regardless of CO2.  So it's been melting for 12000 years since the height of the last ice age.  99% of the melting was long before man had any effect.  So what causes the ice ages?  What other thing is effecting it and how do we know that the "slight" increase we're seeing now is not just mainly part of whatever causes the ice age cycles?  Or if CO2 is having an effect, it's rather very minor compared to the main cause?

How do you know that if you step in front of a bus it might kill you? How can you be sure it might not stop all by itself before impact? Busses have been stopping at regular intervals since there were busses, some even come along in bunches. That could be interesting if their synchronicity goes bad.

Might make sense to avoid stepping in front of them, just in case.

Oy fucking vey.

Rob

Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #454 on: December 29, 2017, 03:45:17 pm »

How do you know that if you step in front of a bus it might kill you? How can you be sure it might not stop all by itself before impact? Busses have been stopping at regular intervals since there were busses, some even come along in bunches. That could be interesting if their synchronicity goes bad.

Might make sense to avoid stepping in front of them, just in case.

Oy fucking vey.

Rob
Spending trillions of dollars "just in case" instead of spending those finite resources on cancer and heart research, malaria eradication, health care, etc is not prudent.  It's not exactly like we have money to burn.

Also, your bus example is not a good analogy.  We know that brakes stop a bus.  We also know that CO2 produced by man does not cause the ice ages.  It may have a slight incremental effect on warming, or not.  After all, since the seas have risen hundreds of feet in 12,000 years as the ice age cycle warms, a couple inches of additional rising of the seas are really just inconsequential perturbations.  But the main cause of ice age cycles of warming and cooling is something else.  I'm asking what is that cause and could it account for most if not all of the current rise in temperature?  I'm really interested in the answer but no one here seems to know. 

Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #455 on: December 29, 2017, 03:59:28 pm »

There is actually less work in the coal industry if one is counting workers.  This will continue as the cheapest coal comes from surface mining.  Largest coal producing state in the US is Wyoming where it is all surface mined.  A lot of this coal goes to India and China as you can judge from the rail statistics for Burlington Northern (one of Warren Buffet's companies).  If you are judging Trump's success by workforce count, he has failed.
I read that coal exports are up around 25% and jobs up 1200 workers.  Not a lot but if you consider the stress natural gas alternative energy is having on coal, that's not bad.  But you're missing the whole point.  Hillary told the coal workers to go screw themselves.  Trump showed empathy.  He said he would help and has.  Things may not work out the way you hope for.  But it's nice to know when people are on your side and care about you.  That's why he won. 

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #456 on: December 29, 2017, 05:35:04 pm »

I read that coal exports are up around 25% and jobs up 1200 workers.  Not a lot but if you consider the stress natural gas alternative energy is having on coal, that's not bad.  But you're missing the whole point.  Hillary told the coal workers to go screw themselves.  Trump showed empathy.  He said he would help and has.  Things may not work out the way you hope for.  But it's nice to know when people are on your side and care about you.  That's why he won.
Trump's campaign on bringing coal mining jobs back was confined pretty much to Appalachian states.  Those states have lost and continue to lose coal mining jobs.  Jobs are not being created in mining but in the ancillary support areas.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #457 on: December 29, 2017, 10:09:26 pm »

Trump's campaign on bringing coal mining jobs back was confined pretty much to Appalachian states.  Those states have lost and continue to lose coal mining jobs.  Jobs are not being created in mining but in the ancillary support areas.
Yeah, things are pretty bad in the coal industry.  I think the next democrat candidate should just be honest and tell the coal miners to get another job.

LesPalenik

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #458 on: December 30, 2017, 12:54:50 am »

Yeah, things are pretty bad in the coal industry.  I think the next democrat candidate should just be honest and tell the coal miners to get another job.

Most of the jobs in the coal industry were lost because of advancing technology and automation, as well as the increased demand for natural gas and renewable energy not because of government regulation. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said in its 2017 U.S. Coal Outlook that it predicted jobs will continue to be cut, and that β€œtoo many companies are still mining too much coal for too few customers.”

The job losses in the photojournalism and news industries were even higher than in the coal segment.  From January 2001 to September 2016, the newspaper publishers industry lost over half of its employment, from 412,000 to 174,000. Australian and Canadian media companies reported also significant losses in their news industries. Even Eastman Kodak, Tesla, National Oilwell Varco, and Molina Healthcare Inc. eliminated thousands of jobs in 2017 alone.
 
A new report has found that 38 percent of US jobs will be replaced by robots and artificial intelligence by the early 2030s. Interestingly, Germany, the Europe's strongest economy and manufacturing powerhouse has quadrupled the amount of industrial robots it has installed in the last 20 years, without causing human redundancies.
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Rob C

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Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #459 on: December 30, 2017, 04:58:59 am »

1.  Spending trillions of dollars "just in case" instead of spending those finite resources on cancer and heart research, malaria eradication, health care, etc is not prudent.  It's not exactly like we have money to burn.

Also, your bus example is not a good analogy.  We know that brakes stop a bus.  We also know that CO2 produced by man does not cause the ice ages.  It may have a slight incremental effect on warming, or not.  After all, since the seas have risen hundreds of feet in 12,000 years as the ice age cycle warms, a couple inches of additional rising of the seas are really just inconsequential perturbations.  But the main cause of ice age cycles of warming and cooling is something else.  I'm asking what is that cause and could it account for most if not all of the current rise in temperature?  I'm really interested in the answer 2. but no one here seems to know.



1. Who told you that's where the money, as in public (?), would be going? It's a typical fib of substitution, where a prize that was never available is offered as decoy in an argument. The same "public health" lie was used, to great effect, in the lead-up to the Brexit vote.
 
2. You know perfectly well that if they did and told you, you still couldn't buy it. Couldn't, because it's mindset. Magically, all that shit we pump into the air doesn't affect anything because some of us don't like to imagine that it has to, that there is nowhere else for it to go, that it can't reasonably just hang there, doing nothing one way or the other. Preposterous to imagine anything else. Yeah, just as cigarettes, we were told in the forties and fifties, were making us all better singers if enjoying a more brief career. Stick in a star, and whether it's soap or cigarettes people buy the lie.

Obviously, then, better doing nothing than trying to do the bit that we can to prevent or at least limit within our abilities what may also be happening beyond our own causation.

Somehow, it all reminds me of that great Trumpian project: build a diversionary wall that will instantly stop US citizens craving drugs and consequently being responsible for thousands of Mexican dead every year through gang violence to supply that wonderful market. Colour it in the tones of immigration instead, immigration that does the jobs the legitimate Americans don't want to do, just as in Britain where some of the Poles, Romanians et al. find themselves doing the otherwise unfilled jobs nobody else wants. Jobs, in the end, that left undone would stop the country in its tracks. But hey, those jobs "we" don't want to do are obviously jobs that are stolen from us so we can no longer want not to do them, but can use them instead as ammunition with which to attack Johnny Foreigner.

You see how it works? Introduce non sequiturs, as the last paragraph above, and hope your opponent is of limited attention span.

"Yeah, things are pretty bad in the coal industry.  I think the next democrat candidate should just be honest and tell the coal miners to get another job."

Now that's a wonderful idea: honesty in politics!

Sadly, it will never catch on: people don't want truth, people want comfort against reality. Politicians exist because the market exists. Snake oil can even be used for cooking, as proven by the tribes in the Amazon and in the Congo, and is guarateed to meet all international health standards and safeguards.


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