Pages: 1 ... 10 11 [12] 13 14 ... 32   Go Down

Author Topic: Climate Change: Science and Issues  (Read 122947 times)

Alan Goldhammer

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4344
    • A Goldhammer Photography
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #220 on: November 11, 2017, 11:21:02 am »

Hot News from the Antarctic Underground
Very interesting and this could be one of the reasons that even slight increases in global temperatures might amplify breakage of ice shelves in the Antarctic.  Maybe photographers should plan their expeditions sooner rather than later.
Logged

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4770
    • Robert's Photos
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #221 on: November 11, 2017, 11:21:54 am »

And the progress so far confirms the skeptics: it is not warming as fast as predicted, the "catastrophic" consequences are steadily moving further and further into the future, with less and less likelihood of happening. Which, of course, our three musketeers (Bart, Pieter, Robert) will attribute to the heroic efforts of the mankind so far  ;)

I can only assume that this kind of comment, sarcastically and incorrectly attributing intentions to me and others, is an attempt to annoy people. I don't see the purpose. If you truly believe that this discussion is a complete waste of time, then surely it's not worth your time to attempt to ridicule it.

I also wanted to address an issue that Alan raised, the incorrect prediction of an ice age that didn't occur. This has come up a few times, both here and in the deleted thread. I have only a vague memory of it, but I remember the entire discussion as a kind of  "meme" that hit the airwaves, was debunked, and then largely forgotten. I don't think it serves any purpose to attribute much importance to it as an example of anything, since it was pretty obviously not important. To be sure, the chattering day-time TV "personalities" made have had some fun talking about it for 15 minutes, but using that as an example of "alarm" is beside the point. Using it as an example of scientists "gone bad" is equally without merit. I could list dozens of examples of things scientists got right, but you know them as well as me. Because some people made some bad predictions about a thing 40 years ago is no reason not to believe predictions people make now about something else. Not all predictions that people make now will all turn out to be completely correct either, and so what?
Logged
--
Robert

Bart_van_der_Wolf

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8914
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #222 on: November 11, 2017, 11:25:59 am »

And the progress so far confirms the skeptics: it is not warming as fast as predicted, ...

Source?

It's hard to debate something without a link to a report about that something ...

Cheers,
Bart
Logged
== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18091
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #223 on: November 11, 2017, 11:31:38 am »

I think, Bart, that the link was posted either by me, Alan, or Ray in the now-deleted original thread.

pegelli

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1664
    • http://pegelli.smugmug.com/
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #224 on: November 11, 2017, 12:07:10 pm »

Burning natural gas is not clean. It's cleaner than coal, but that's setting a pretty low target to beat.

Cheers,
Bart
On top of that the use of shale gas is driven by the cost of gas vs. the cost of coal.
With Trump's support for the coal industry this might turn on a dime and easily switch back to coal and higher emissions.
Logged
pieter, aka pegelli

pegelli

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1664
    • http://pegelli.smugmug.com/
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #225 on: November 11, 2017, 12:10:28 pm »

And the progress so far confirms the skeptics: it is not warming as fast as predicted, the "catastrophic" consequences are steadily moving further and further into the future, with less and less likelihood of happening. Which, of course, our three musketeers (Bart, Pieter, Robert) will attribute to the heroic efforts of the mankind so far  ;)
Wrong assumption, but I know you can't let any opportunity to ridicule your opponents unused, but we know who it is coming from  :P

Getting more accurate models is not caused by any heroic effort of musketeers or mankind in general, but simply by scientists who keep working on it.
Logged
pieter, aka pegelli

Bart_van_der_Wolf

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8914
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #226 on: November 11, 2017, 12:11:39 pm »

I think, Bart, that the link was posted either by me, Alan, or Ray in the now-deleted original thread.

So, no source that can be used as basis to discuss the assertion. I see.

Cheers,
Bart
Logged
== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18091
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #227 on: November 11, 2017, 12:20:50 pm »

So, no source that can be used as basis to discuss the assertion. I see.

Blame the moderators, Bart, not me :)

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #228 on: November 11, 2017, 12:22:42 pm »

I can only assume that this kind of comment, sarcastically and incorrectly attributing intentions to me and others, is an attempt to annoy people. I don't see the purpose. If you truly believe that this discussion is a complete waste of time, then surely it's not worth your time to attempt to ridicule it.

I also wanted to address an issue that Alan raised, the incorrect prediction of an ice age that didn't occur. This has come up a few times, both here and in the deleted thread. I have only a vague memory of it, but I remember the entire discussion as a kind of  "meme" that hit the airwaves, was debunked, and then largely forgotten. I don't think it serves any purpose to attribute much importance to it as an example of anything, since it was pretty obviously not important. To be sure, the chattering day-time TV "personalities" made have had some fun talking about it for 15 minutes, but using that as an example of "alarm" is beside the point. Using it as an example of scientists "gone bad" is equally without merit. I could list dozens of examples of things scientists got right, but you know them as well as me. Because some people made some bad predictions about a thing 40 years ago is no reason not to believe predictions people make now about something else. Not all predictions that people make now will all turn out to be completely correct either, and so what?
Bob, You posted that people ignored the problems scientists were telling us that New Orleans were facing.  And then the flood happened.  Therefore we shouldn't ignore the scientists.  My point using the examples of the Ice Age and over-population predictions was that before things happen, it's hard to predict which prediction which come out true or false.   Scientists have made many mistakes.   We can't guarantee that because the scientists were right about New Orleans, they are right about all their other predictions.  You seem to agree with that point.  So we're really not at odds over it.  So I'm just saying that climate change predictions could be wrong or not as bad as predicted or even if happening might not only be the cause of man.

My own feeling is that it is happening and that at least some of the blame is man's.  But my main concern is two-fold.  One, how much the earth and man and the environment will benefit is not discussed for the most part.  Media, governments, industry and scientists are putting their thumbs of the scale of full and complete knowledge.  They're playing up the disaster side without giving equal billing to the advantage side.  After all, the earth has never been so bountiful in the last 12000 years since the last ice age reversed.  While there are danger areas such as higher seas, the advantages of a warmer climate have produced better conditions today and otherwise out weigh the negatives claimed.

Secondly, resources have to be used to make any changes even assuming we can change the climate.  No one seems to have come up with a comparison study of how much resources and how they should be spent vs. what advantages if those resources are spent in other areas (ie. cancer research, destruction of malarial mosquitoes, etc.) Anyone who has run a home or business knows that resources are finite. We all sit down and allocate those resources to different things.  Better health insurance vs. vacations. vs, types of food, vs eating in restaurants.  Etc.  We don't seem to be doing that in the climate change discussion, at least in an honest way.  To watch rich people get $10,000 government rebates so they can buy a $100,000 Tesla electric car cheaper, for example, does not seem like a fair thing to do especially when you're trying to convince ordinary people driving 7 year old cars needing new tires that they should give more of their money to climate change projects.   The whole discussion seems tainted.  Many people feel climate change supporters have their hands in their wallets. 

Until those issues are fairly addressed, you're going to have "deniers".

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18091
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #229 on: November 11, 2017, 12:23:22 pm »

... Getting more accurate models is not caused by any heroic effort of musketeers or mankind in general, but simply by scientists who keep working on it.

Right, but the Global War(ming)mongering has been based on the old, less accurate models.

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #230 on: November 11, 2017, 12:31:37 pm »

So, no source that can be used as basis to discuss the assertion. I see.

Cheers,
Bart
Most sources we link too are not vetted. They're just news articles repeating assertion of others and written in ways that slant the news about the subject to our point of view.   We ignore the links that support the other side's viewpoints.  Let's at least be honest about that.  We're all defense lawyers advocating for our clients that they're not murders, maybe just not understood at the worse.  Of course the prosecutor sees only malice in the defendant as he insists on the death penalty or life in prison.  Neither side wants to give an inch.   :)

pegelli

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1664
    • http://pegelli.smugmug.com/
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #231 on: November 11, 2017, 12:44:56 pm »

Right, but the Global War(ming)mongering has been based on the old, less accurate models.
Haven't seen the earth is cooling yet, the increase is still continueing but apparently at a slightly lower pace.

But I agree with Ray (and some others parotting him), we should not close our eyes for the positive effects this might have, but I also believe we shouldn't close our eyes for trying to mitigate the negatives.
Logged
pieter, aka pegelli

Bart_van_der_Wolf

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8914
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #232 on: November 11, 2017, 12:47:54 pm »

Right, but the Global War(ming)mongering has been based on the old, less accurate models.

Less accurate, or (as asserted) wrong?

Cheers,
Bart
Logged
== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

Bart_van_der_Wolf

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8914
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #233 on: November 11, 2017, 12:56:05 pm »

Here's an example of what was mentioned in the media, and what was actually written by the scientists:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17mKIKGEF5E&list=PL82yk73N8eoX-Xobr_TfHsWPfAIyI7VAP&index=37

Cheers,
Bart
Logged
== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #234 on: November 11, 2017, 12:57:50 pm »

Haven't seen the earth is cooling yet, the increase is still continueing but apparently at a slightly lower pace.

But I agree with Ray (and some others parotting him), we should not close our eyes for the positive effects this might have, but I also believe we shouldn't close our eyes for trying to mitigate the negatives.

I agree.  Full and complete disclosure for both the positive and negative results and costs to change them. 

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #235 on: November 11, 2017, 01:10:23 pm »

Here's an example of what was mentioned in the media, and what was actually written by the scientists:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17mKIKGEF5E&list=PL82yk73N8eoX-Xobr_TfHsWPfAIyI7VAP&index=37

Cheers,
Bart
So both sides are putting their thumbs on the scale to predict results that meet their biases.    Even the conclusion arrived at in your link is biased and was selected  to fit your bias.  That was my point earlier. 

One thing that caught my attention was the moderator said that if all countries signed up in Paris "aggressively" follow their promises, it will all turn out OK.  Does anyone really think that countries will "aggressively" follow their promises for the next 50 years?  Or will they adjust to fit their political and economic conditions when the going gets tough economically?   What's going to happen when thing go south and we have another recession?  Are the people who will then be clamoring for doctors and food rather than paying more for things do to Paris promises going to be willing to spend more on non-essential things that can't see currently? 

pegelli

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1664
    • http://pegelli.smugmug.com/
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #236 on: November 11, 2017, 02:56:45 pm »

One thing that caught my attention was the moderator said that if all countries signed up in Paris "aggressively" follow their promises, it will all turn out OK.  Does anyone really think that countries will "aggressively" follow their promises for the next 50 years?   
Obviously time will tell, but my expectation is that there are sufficient reporting requirements in the accord that if countries will not meet their targetted emissions sufficient shaming and political pressure will mount to get them back on track. But as always, I'm an optimist ;)
Logged
pieter, aka pegelli

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #237 on: November 11, 2017, 04:07:28 pm »

Obviously time will tell, but my expectation is that there are sufficient reporting requirements in the accord that if countries will not meet their targetted emissions sufficient shaming and political pressure will mount to get them back on track. But as always, I'm an optimist ;)

We'll Trump is shameless so that won't work here.   In any case,  it requires Congress to pass regulations and funding for any Paris requirements. That's not going to happen especially if economic conditions get worse.  I can't imagine Xi doing anything to slow down China's growth. 

Over 50% of the CO2 produced in the world today comes from China India and America. With the first two not having to do anything by 2030, and America in effect pulled out of Paris totally, I don't see how you're going to reduce CO2.  Of course the marketplace will demand a certain amount of clean energy that will happen regardless of Paris. I think that's where the best hope is.

pegelli

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1664
    • http://pegelli.smugmug.com/
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #238 on: November 11, 2017, 05:19:01 pm »

Over 50% of the CO2 produced in the world today comes from China India and America. With the first two not having to do anything by 2030,
How many times have we debunked this silly argument you keep telling here that India and China have to do nothing by 2030. It's simply not true, And China is currently even overachieving vs. what they told in Paris. And don't come back that they are lying or cheating (the other silly argument you keep spreading here), the IEA and others will be able to do consistency checks based on other data and they'll be called out on that. Xi is not going to let that happen now that he is trying to fill the gap that Donald left for him.

You keep saying China bamboozled the world, but my only conclusion is that you are bamboozling the facts because you simply cannot admit China is doing something better then you thought.
Logged
pieter, aka pegelli

Slobodan Blagojevic

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 18091
  • When everyone thinks the same, nobody thinks
    • My website
Re: Climate Change: Science and Issues
« Reply #239 on: November 11, 2017, 06:47:26 pm »

... China is currently even overachieving vs. what they told in Paris...

A weaseling way of saying that every year they are actually polluting more and more, just less than they told in Paris.

India and China as "overachievers": "New Delhi’s ‘gas chamber’ smog is so bad that United Airlines has stopped flying there"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/11/11/new-delhis-gas-chamber-smog-is-so-bad-that-united-airlines-has-stopped-flying-there/?utm_term=.d2510beec080
« Last Edit: November 11, 2017, 07:37:56 pm by Slobodan Blagojevic »
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 10 11 [12] 13 14 ... 32   Go Up