Bye, Bye Lightroom perpetual licenses .... No Lightroom 7

[rodney.dugmore]

Yep I don't rent my software! My money my choice bye bye Adobe.

[ihv]

Over-charged relative to what? What is the objective criterion by which you know you are being "over-charged"?

* I bought LR 2.5 half a years ago for 75€ as an upgrade which makes 2€ per month this far.
* I rarely use PS-type of application, but just to get me covered I got Affinity Photo for 40€.
* For me personally, I don't feel the CC updates have been influential (useful on occasions yes), even more so after that long delay for the current major release, I'm rather disappointed (not taking into account there is no more perpetual licence). Moreover, this last update matches my personal idea of what happens when there is no intent to upgrade as the money just flows in. Keep it enough (barely) up to date is what I perceive. I was one of those who never had any speed issues and that is apparently the biggest feature for the new release, with the addition of range filter. The CC updates in between I don't care of.

I'm having no issues people liking subscription and especially from businesses perspective that seems like a good deal.
While I have got paid from time to time, photography is only a hobby and sometimes longer breaks happen.
Another monthly bill on top of other bills is not that minor after all in total, considering that would not have been a priority payment.

Anyway, good luck for those with the subscription.

[Robert Roaldi]

If anything, I believe that we've been under-charged. If Apple had maintained the price of Aperture such that it made it worth their while to continue support, I and many others would be better off. Dropping the price of niche pro (or semi-pro) software to the levels of mobile phone apps (free or nearly so) makes no sense to me. It pretty much guarantees that support for very capable software will eventually disappear. The market for those products is small to begin with, so price wars make no sense to me. I don't want cut rate software. The thing is that even at its most expensive, Aperture was only $300 or so, far less than any camera+lens combo I use. LR was comparably priced, I believe, I bought LR5 and can't remember what it cost.

People spend more on coffee!

$300 is a non-issue, given what you get for the money. IMO, the entire world has gone mad. Nothing good is cheap, why pretend.

What is the point of a race to the bottom? All it does is limit choices.

[Alan Goldhammer]

People spend more on coffee!

I only have one cup a day and that's home brewed so I'm not one of those Starbucks junkies.

[Robert Roaldi]

I only have one cup a day and that's home brewed so I'm not one of those Starbucks junkies.

I'm of Italian ancestry, I have to have 2 or 3 cappuccinos per week or I lose my privileges. (I don't go to Starbucks either.)

[Hoggy]

Besides..  Starbucks is nasty, horrible, bitter than hell crap-coffee.  It's no wonder they have to put all kinds of other stuff in it in order to cover that up and make it somewhat palatable.

[Tibor O]

Please see this document by Adobe Financial Analyst Briefing October 2017

Here you will find that:
- Adobe expects more than 40% new CC subscribers
- Adobe sees its market expansion in the field of photography as the number of photo hobbyist grow, as there will be new mobile paid offerings and premium cloud service
- Adobe sees a total of 5.7 billion USD of its CC market expansion by 2020 due to photo hobbyist growth, Adobe Lightroom and Photoshop Elements migration to the CC, new paid mobile users and premium photo services

Adobe's revenue from CC in 2014 was 0.7 billion USD from perpetual licences and 1.1 billion USD from subscription and in 2017 it is 0.2 billion USD from perpetual and 4 billion USD from subscription.

[john beardsworth]

So what are you saying? A lot of people do seem content with Adobe's direction, don't you think?

[Tibor O]

So what are you saying? A lot of people do seem content with Adobe's direction, don't you think?

Yes.

And they (Adobe) will migrate also the Photoshop Elements to the CC, which currently is about 100 € per a perpetual license. They will also add new paid mobile apps (similarly C1 has a paid Capture Pilot app) and premium photo services (I think they mean cloud storage here).

Also I am saying that photo hobbyist are an important part of Adobe CC's customer base and that in 2020 there will be no Adobe perpetual licenses left. I could go as far to say that I think that in 2020 they will integrate the Lightroom Classic into the Lightroom CC.

IMHO Adobe's CC will have (in 2020) the majority of "serious" iPhone shooters, who are willing to pay for the iPhone apps, almost all photo hobbyist (like 90%) and approx. half to two thirds of the pro market (the rest will go to C1). I think all other players (like Affinity) in this market will have only marginal market shares in this photography pie.

To summarize, the photo software market will consolidate with only 2 major players (Adobe and C1) and a handfull of underdogs. Just my opinion, of course.

Disclaimer: I am a C1 user, but have previously used Lightroom 1 & 2. My interest in this topic is strictly analytical.

[john beardsworth]

I don't disagree too much with your speculations, though I might push the timeframe back a few years.

Would you not consider Apple and Google to be major players in the photo software market, especially for the phone side of the market? I'd suggest you are perhaps putting too much emphasis on paying for editing software, and not enough on the storage - which is where the big players seem to see the money. P1 is a bit of an outlier as its main business is probably hardware (I don't think they disclose a hardware/software split).

[Tibor O]

I'd suggest you are perhaps putting too much emphasis on paying for editing software, and not enough on the storage - which is where the big players seem to see the money.

You are correct. I was looking only at the editing software. I think that for serious photo amateurs, semi professionals and professionals cloud storage is a non issue, because they prefer local storage with backups. At this time.

P1 is a bit of an outlier as its main business is probably hardware (I don't think they disclose a hardware/software split).

You are probably right. Hardware of course is their main business as they ofer C1 DB free for the users of their digital backs. However, in their Annual Report 2016 they claim that their main customers are professional photographers and serious photo enthusiast of both buying their full camera systems and looking only for their C1 software. They state that their market share is approx. 60% of the market for high-quality digital camera systems in the professional market.

For me, going with C1 was a personal choice due to buying into entry level digital Medium format. Let this be enough on C1 as not to go off topic.

[john beardsworth]

You are correct. I was looking only at the editing software. I think that for serious photo amateurs, semi professionals and professionals cloud storage is a non issue, because they prefer local storage with backups. At this time.

But much less so if we're looking to your 2020 or my 2025? And right now, how true is it anyway?

Sure, only yesterday I was waiting for a friend's Lightroom catalogue to upgrade and showed him Adobe's new LRCC and their storage plan. We had a good laugh! With roughly 700000 raw files in LR he'd be paying Adobe at least £1200 a year for up to 10Tb cloud storage, which seems a non starter. Yet who says it is all or nothing? In his case he works in a number of European locations at this time of year and he can see the value of having originals from current jobs available wherever he may be. Yes, one can set up remote access, VPN etc, but these cloud storage solutions are turnkey. With the phone user end of the market, cloud storage is almost expected, and for the higher end it's already useful, if expensive - at this time.

[Mark D Segal]

A couple of videos well worth watching that address a number of the questions and issues being raised in our discussions:

Matt Kloskowski

Tom Hogarty

[digitaldog]

A couple of videos well worth watching that address a number of the questions and issues being raised in our discussions:

Matt Kloskowski

Tom Hogarty

Matt tells me he doesn't believe in soft proofing. 
Tom tells me LR will have a perceptual license indefinitely. 
I'll pass on both but thanks!

[Mark D Segal]

Matt tells me he doesn't believe in soft proofing. 
Tom tells me LR will have a perceptual license indefinitely. 
I'll pass on both but thanks!

I know what you mean, but I watched the content of both videos before recommending them here and I recommended them because I think the content is useful.

[digitaldog]

I know what you mean, but I watched the content of both videos before recommending them here and I recommended them because I think the content is useful.

Did Tom state anything we should accept as factual long term?

[Mark D Segal]

Did Tom state anything we should accept as factual long term?

Every one's individual judgment-call. Watch the video and decide what you think it safe to trust or not trust. I came away with the impression that they intend to keep developing LR Classic. We'll see.

[Jonathan Cross]

On the journey from LR2 to LR6 I reckon I have spent roughly £100 every 2 years on average. In the UK LR Classic is £9.99 per month.  That works out at more than 100% up!  I am also finding lack of detail on the Adobe website.  I will not use Classic if any images go to the cloud; I also want to be able to select what I import from a shoot.  I copy from my camera card to my hd, do some selection, and then import, doing a further cull in LR. I keep the images on my hd in case I decide later I now like them, even if they have been culled from LR in the first instance.  That is the way I work with LR6.  Even if I can swallow the price increase, I need certainty that I can continue the same workflow.  I cannot find out from the Adobe website if that is the case, so they have not got any chance of getting me on the hook yet.
Jonathan

[Hoggy]

I am also finding lack of detail on the Adobe website.  I will not use Classic if any images go to the cloud;
.........
I cannot find out from the Adobe website if that is the case, so they have not got any chance of getting me on the hook yet.

And to me, that remains the scariest part of all...  It mirrors the perpetual situation so precisely.

OTOH, wouldn't the same feature set of camera raw need to be supported for Photoshop, indefinitely?  Since ACR and Classic (aka Real) share the same core, that could be a ray of hope for Classic.

[ButchM]

y.

OTOH, wouldn't the same feature set of camera raw need to be supported for Photoshop, indefinitely?  Since ACR and Classic (aka Real) share the same core, that could be a ray of hope for Classic.

Keeping in mind that ACR is merely a Photoshop plugin. It could be replaced/updated separately from Lightroom at any given point, if the powers that be should ever decide that is a path they wish to choose.

Remember that Adobe doesn't ever have any plans to change anything ... until they do.