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Author Topic: Skepticism about Climate Change  (Read 214019 times)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #740 on: July 25, 2017, 09:54:07 am »

Also note that increased acidic seas haven't effected the population explosion.

How do you know? Or is it based on more unfounded assumptions?

Cheers,
Bart
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PeterAit

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #741 on: July 25, 2017, 10:31:36 am »

The climate change deniers will surely be interested in this:

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/counties/wake-county/article162337723.html

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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #742 on: July 25, 2017, 10:47:02 am »

How do you know? Or is it based on more unfounded assumptions?

Cheers,
Bart
You didn;t read my previous post or the linked article.  I did not base it on unfounded assumptions.   Check the last sentence re-posted again in BOLD.


"...Abnormal levels of carbon dioxide in the North Atlantic are being linked to the rapid growth of plankton population in the ocean over the past 45 years, according to a study featured in the journal Science...

A team of marine researchers, led by associate professor Anand Gnanadesikan of Johns Hopkins University, discovered that the population of microscopic marine alga known as Coccolithophores in the North Atlantic experienced a tenfold increase from 1965 to 2010.

This recent finding contradicts earlier assumptions made by scientists that the phytoplankton would find it difficult to produce plates from calcium carbonate as ocean waters become increasingly more acidic...."


http://www.techtimes.com/articles/111718/20151130/increased-carbon-dioxide-levels-lead-to-rapid-plankton-growth-how-this-harms-the-environment.htm

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #743 on: July 25, 2017, 10:48:54 am »

What's really interesting is that scientists today contradicts scientific assumption made previously.  This is why you just can't assume everything you read about Climate Change.  It's an evolving theory that supporters should be open to evolving in their thinking as well.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #744 on: July 25, 2017, 01:42:08 pm »

You didn;t read my previous post or the linked article.  I did not base it on unfounded assumptions.

Alan, your post at Reply #739 was not specific as to which population you were referring to. Since I'm not a clairvoyant, I assumed you were referring to the earlier mentioned human population. Now you clarify what it was that you were referring to, which I had read.

Quote
Check the last sentence re-posted again in BOLD.


"...Abnormal levels of carbon dioxide in the North Atlantic are being linked to the rapid growth of plankton population in the ocean over the past 45 years, according to a study featured in the journal Science...

A team of marine researchers, led by associate professor Anand Gnanadesikan of Johns Hopkins University, discovered that the population of microscopic marine alga known as Coccolithophores in the North Atlantic experienced a tenfold increase from 1965 to 2010.

You seem to assume that that is a positive development. Instead, it is an indication that despite acidification, the huge increase in Carbon overpowers the negative effects on this particular species of plankton.

Quote
This recent finding contradicts earlier assumptions made by scientists that the phytoplankton would find it difficult to produce plates from calcium carbonate as ocean waters become increasingly more acidic...."

So, according to the article on the original report, progressive insight might require adjusting earlier assumptions, it "contradicts"? I'd have to see the article itself to judge if this is a correct representation of a "contradiction" that the original article is supposed to mention. I do not have a subscription to the magazine. A priory, I'd assume that both things are happening simultaneously, more troublesome calcification AND increased growth due to more CO2 being resolved into the oceans (and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation / increasing temperature). The finding seems to suggest that the role of CO2 is overpowering the effect of acidification, but again one needs to read the article itself in order to find out what's actually written/observed.

BTW, increased plankton growth is another a potential source for additional warming.

Your assumption in post Reply #738 is based on a false premise:
Quote
Bart: It seems my theory seems true.  That more CO2 increases the population of plankton which then uses more CO2 in the air.

Plankton uses the dissolved CO2 in the ocean, not in the air. Something like 40% of the CO2 in the air dissolves in the oceans, which means that if the carbon levels in the oceans increase, they must have increased even more in the atmosphere (and we know they actually do). These increasing ocean levels of carbon are more of an indicator that the atmosphere is swamped with excess CO2 levels.

Cheers,
Bart

P.S.  Here's the abstact to the findings, "that CO2 and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation were the best predictors, leading us to hypothesize that higher CO2 levels might be encouraging growth."
That doesn't sound like a conflict with prior studies, but rather a cautious potential modification of factors involved, subject to peer review ...
« Last Edit: July 25, 2017, 08:10:57 pm by BartvanderWolf »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #745 on: July 25, 2017, 08:26:37 pm »

What's really interesting is that scientists today contradicts scientific assumption made previously.

This is what scientific peer review does ..., on a continuing basis. Not contradicting, but rather adjusting with new insights, as in progressive insight (due to expanded sets of observations, and/or improved instrumentation).

Quote
This is why you just can't assume everything you read about Climate Change.

No, indeed you can't believe everything that's published about Climate Change, because lots of it has no scientific basis or is a wrong interpretation of actually published reports by scientists. The blogosphere is rampant of inaccurate, deliberately false, or biased reports of what scientists actually publish (and is yet to be peer reviewed).

Cheers,
Bart
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Ray

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #746 on: July 27, 2017, 03:16:34 am »

No, indeed you can't believe everything that's published about Climate Change, because lots of it has no scientific basis or is a wrong interpretation of actually published reports by scientists. The blogosphere is rampant of inaccurate, deliberately false, or biased reports of what scientists actually publish (and is yet to be peer reviewed).

Very true, and that applies to both of the broad positions on climate change, such as 'alarmism' about the dangers of rising CO2 levels, at one extreme, and denial that current levels of CO2 have any effect at all in warming the climate, at the other extreme.

According to my own experiences, most skeptical laypersons who are interested in the subject, and most scientists in all fields with whom I've had conversations on the subject, are of the view that it is very plausible and understandable that mankind in general, taking into account his total, combined activities on the planet, must be having some effect on the climate.

Such activities include massive deforestation for agricultural purposes, significant clearing of land in order to build thousands of cities and suburbs, millions of kilometers of black, tar-covered roads which absorb significant heat (ever placed your hand on a tar-sealed road at midday?), thousands of airports with large buildings and concrete runways several kilometers long, thousands of golf courses and huge areas of neatly-trimmed lawns (adding up all the individual lawns and nature strips in the suburbs, which, in their natural state, would be covered with forests), significant areas of land stripped of their vegetation for open-cut mining purposes, not only for coal, but for many types of minerals and metals which are essential in a modern civilization.

The increase in demand for  Lithium, not only due to the proliferation of mobile devices with built-in Lithium batteries, but also due to the storage requirements for alternative energy supplies and batteries to propel electric cars, is causing increasing environmental pollution and water scarcity, especially in poor countries where most of the Lithium reserves exist.

https://www.foeeurope.org/sites/default/files/publications/13_factsheet-lithium-gb.pdf

"The extraction of lithium has significant environmental and social impacts, especially due to water pollution and depletion.
In addition, toxic chemicals are needed to process lithium. The release of such chemicals through leaching, spills or air emissions can harm communities, ecosystems and food production. Moreover, lithium extraction inevitably harms the soil and also causes air contamination."


This is just one example of the negative consequences of the drive towards renewable energy supplies.

Part of the nature of the general hoax about AGW, is the attribution of this combined effect on the climate, from mankind's total activities, to the one main cause of rising CO2 levels.

Those of you who are familiar with the subject will have heard of the Urban Heat Island effect. As populations expand and cities grow, thermometers located at airports and other areas close to the city, show exaggerated temperature rises which are greater than the temperature rises in other areas far from the cities. These anomalies have to be taken into consideration when assessing global temperature rises.

What is more difficult to take into consideration is the effect of deforestation and changes in land use regardless of any warming effect from CO2. We can argue about the amount of CO2 increases that have resulted from deforestation, and alarmists can argue that mature forests have no net absorption of CO2 (which is probably not true, according to some studies I've read), but it seems there are very few studies which try to assess the proportion of our current change in climate which is due to the widespread change in land use, separate from any influence that changes in atmospheric CO2 might have. Such is the fixation on CO2.

For those who are seriously interested, try wading through the following scholarly article.
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/87e8/421d08a7482b6ec2bccbf028d7f49fa6939a.pdf
Below are some extracts from the conclusions.

"These results also suggest that teleconnection patterns due to anthropogenic land cover changes which have already occurred, are capable of affecting the temperature and precipitation distributions worldwide and may have already done so. Such effects are traditionally unaccounted for in global climate trend analyses (e.g.,North and Stevens 1998) but growing evidence indicates that these effects may have to be accounted for in climate change monitoring reports (e.g., Pielke et al.1998a, b and references therein) necessitating further examination of their scope and signifcance.

These patterns of recently warming surface temperatures over Northern Hemisphere land areas, resulting solely from dynamical atmospheric shifts, have been difficult to associate convincingly with global CO2 warming (e.g., Plantico et al. 1990; Jones 1988; Hurrell 1996) and our results suggest that global land cover change may already have had an important and measurable effect on the observed global climate state."


Did some former US president declare that the 'science is settled'?  ;D


« Last Edit: July 27, 2017, 09:53:01 am by Ray »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #747 on: July 30, 2017, 10:05:44 am »

"Over the years researchers seem to have concluded that the planet was not as hot as they thought. Oops."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/our-changing-news-climate-1500412008?mod=e2fb

Quote
Anyone old enough to have been a Times reader in the late 1980s may recall a series of stories that helped educate the public on how cool our planet used to be. Here’s one report from March of 1988:

One of the scientists, Dr. James E. Hansen of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Institute for Space Studies in Manhattan, said he used the 30-year period 1950-1980, when the average global temperature was 59 degrees Fahrenheit, as a base to determine temperature variations.

Quote
Is there any way to return to the salad days of 59 degrees? Well, it turns out to be easier than you might think. In January [2017], as the government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was reporting the third consecutive year of record highs, it noted that the average global temperature in 2016 had surged to a sizzling... 58.69 degrees.

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #748 on: July 30, 2017, 10:13:00 am »

Stop confusing people with  historical facts.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #749 on: July 30, 2017, 02:51:50 pm »

"Over the years researchers seem to have concluded that the planet was not as hot as they thought. Oops."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/our-changing-news-climate-1500412008?mod=e2fb

Don't know what they base that on (I'd have to subscribe to read the article and see which data was compared), but the NOAA itself seems to have a different factual record than suggested by the quote ...

Quote from: NOAA
Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.74°C (plus or minus 0.18°C) since the late–19th century, and the linear trend for the past 50 years of 0.13°C (plus or minus 0.03°C) per decade is nearly twice that for the past 100 years.

The attached chart shows the deviations from the global 20th-century average.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/12/12/1950-2016

Cheers,
Bart
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #751 on: July 31, 2017, 12:36:49 am »

So Tesla released in Tesla 3.  It has no gauges - everything is in a center mounted computer screen.  So they saved loads of money of separate switches and displays.  But who want so many of the gages in the center?  Is it safe?  Are they going to be sued when accidents occur because people are taking their eyes off the road?    This is all  part of the way they have to lower costs to pay for the battery.  So you don't get luxury or even standard features that are standard in less costly cars.  Also, what's with it's driving?  Everyone is talking about speed.  What about handling, braking, driving into curves?  Who's going to spend $35K for an $18K Corolla?  Will the $35K hold only as long as the government rebate is given?  What happens when that stops. 

Another thought.  Its vaunted mileage of 220 miles, does that include while the air conditioner is running or not?  How about full number of passengers and luggage or only the driver and nothing in the trunk?  Well, we'll find out pretty soon.

http://fortune.com/2017/07/30/heres-what-reviewers-think-about-teslas-model-3-so-far/

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #752 on: July 31, 2017, 08:49:11 am »

https://www.engadget.com/2017/07/25/Lamar-Smith-House-Science-Committee-Climate-Change-Beneficial-Republican/

Sad indeed, another nutcase (and for personal financial benefits) in 'government', or rather in Trump's swamp.

Cheers,
Bart
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Ray

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #753 on: August 01, 2017, 09:45:45 am »

Oh Dear! It looks like Bart is losing the plot. When some people can no longer counter an argument with rational evidence and logic, they tend to resort to ad hominem attacks. It's so sad.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #754 on: August 01, 2017, 10:27:03 am »

Oh Dear! It looks like Bart is losing the plot. When some people can no longer counter an argument with rational evidence and logic, they tend to resort to ad hominem attacks. It's so sad.

   ?

The evidence keeps piling up and it's pointing in the same direction.

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change
https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3354.html

Quote
[...] Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry–climate models13 to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (−30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (−195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM 2.5, we estimate 55,600 (−34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (−76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM 2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

Unfortunately, access to the full article requires a subsciption, so we'll have to make due with the introduction which mentions the results from multiple combined models, and adds a warning for the use of only a single model.

Cheers,
Bart

P.S. Here are some more/earlier studies that are fully available (PDF links available on the pages):
Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Global-premature-mortality-due-to-anthropogenic-ou-Malina-Ashok/38f2d10d0240db005c32362728fe2fdf98f2b642

Long-term air pollution exposure and cardio- respiratory mortality: a review
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Long-term-air-pollution-exposure-and-cardio-respir-Hoek-Krishnan/0261a649fc5d5701ead7224f2173605544b078f6

Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Allergies in the Anthropocene: Abundance, Interaction, and Modification of Allergens and Adjuvants
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Air-Pollution-and-Climate-Change-Effects-on-Allerg-Reinmuth-Selzle-Kampf/a86eafae39628a465195d6755333a9eef58af179

Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Estimates-and-25-year-trends-of-the-global-burden-Cohen-Brauer/494bdf3d12a1216589565feb346ee4d998cf41d5

The Economics of Health Damage and Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe: A Review of the Conventional and Grey Literature
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-Economics-of-Health-Damage-and-Adaptation-to-C-Martinez-Pezzoli/c703db9980fb76962d5d44dd9f7d877724a15940

« Last Edit: August 01, 2017, 10:57:53 am by BartvanderWolf »
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #755 on: August 01, 2017, 02:01:09 pm »

So, if it's all a hoax, who's perpetrating this hoax?  And why?

(And please don't say it's all the scientists, looking to continue their funding for AGW warming evidence.  That is a lame argument that assumes that 97% of scientists are venal, cooperative conspirators) 
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #756 on: August 01, 2017, 02:12:42 pm »

So, if it's all a hoax, who's perpetrating this hoax?  And why?

(And please don't say it's all the scientists, looking to continue their funding for AGW warming evidence.  That is a lame argument that assumes that 97% of scientists are venal, cooperative conspirators) 
You haven't been paying attention.  Re-read past posts that covered this ad nauseum

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #757 on: August 01, 2017, 02:20:59 pm »

So, if it's all a hoax, who's perpetrating this hoax?  And why?

I asked a similar question in reply #644. If it's a hoax, then the other/real cause(s) for the warming should be easy to find.

I'm still waiting for a clear answer, but I'm not holding my breath ...

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: August 01, 2017, 02:32:33 pm by BartvanderWolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #758 on: August 01, 2017, 02:31:05 pm »


Bart:  I answered it before.   Anyway, it seems it doesn't matter because it's too late to stop it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/07/31/we-only-have-a-5-percent-chance-of-avoiding-dangerous-global-warming-a-study-finds/

Actually, what I want to know, who says 1.5 degrees or 2 degrees are the magic amounts?  Why is over that terrible?  Etc.?  These are made up numbers.  Why not 1 degree or 5 degrees?    It's been two degree hotter before.  So what?  Who says that temperature of 100 years ago was the optimum in the 4.5 billion year history of the earth.  Who can say that and on what basis? 

Peter McLennan

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #759 on: August 01, 2017, 03:11:17 pm »


Actually, what I want to know, who says 1.5 degrees or 2 degrees are the magic amounts?  Who can say that and on what basis?

Scientists. The same people that invented the Internet and several other useful doodads.
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