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Author Topic: Skepticism about Climate Change  (Read 214158 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1340 on: September 28, 2017, 02:43:48 pm »

Economic losses from severe storms, hurricanes, floods, drought and wildfires are projected to reach at least $360 billion a year in the next decade in America, about half of annual US growth, according to a report out Wednesday.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/09/climate-change-costs-us-economy-billions-report/


Les, you should know better than to buy into that statistic. They're always droughts and storms and hurricanes. So what? To blame it on global warming is just silly. 

It's just more of the sky is falling to get people to buy Into Climate Change. It's this kind of nonsense, that pushes people into the denier group. They're not being honest. The least they could do is give a measurement of how much the increase would be over what could be perceived as storms and hurricanes that would have happened anyway. Then you would have an amount that we can discuss. But to effectively blame it all on global climat change is nonsense

LesPalenik

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1341 on: September 28, 2017, 03:25:58 pm »

Alan, have you read that report and watched Bill Nye's video? To me, both the report and the video look very credible.
And all those roofs blown off and houses under the water seemed quite real.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1342 on: September 28, 2017, 08:02:40 pm »

Alan, have you read that report and watched Bill Nye's video? To me, both the report and the video look very credible.
And all those roofs blown off and houses under the water seemed quite real.

You're being deceived.  There's nothing in the article or Nye's video that breaks out how much of the $360 billion dollars in damage is caused by climate change or just by storms that happen anyway.    The article's headline and first few paragraphs try to make the assumption to fool us into believing that $360 billion dollars occurs because of climate change.  But that is not true nor is it claimed in the article.

In a paragraph down the page after the Nye video, Watson who was former head of the IPCC, "Watson is quick to point out that extreme weather events, including heat waves, hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts, are not caused by climate change. However, there is no question their intensity and frequency in many cases has been made worse by the fact the entire planet is now 1.8 degrees F (1 degree C) hotter, he said in an interview."

The chart showing billion dollar damages is prefaced as follows (bold is mine):"A chart of the most costly U.S weather disasters shows billion-dollar events have been increasing in recent years. The main reason: more people are living on higher-value properties in vulnerable places, such as coasts.
But as the atmosphere warms, scientists expect destructive weather itself to become more common."


"Scientists expect it to increase?"  That's it?   no break out of damages due to climate change in the past or what it's going to cost in the future.  Also, to show floods and roofs of houses blown off proves nothing.  Storms have been doing that for centuries long before the industrial age and carbon fuel. 

The article is fooling a lot of people who don't read between the lines.  Of course, a skeptical person would read and say they're trying to fool us.  And like I said, deniers are going to grow as we all learn the game that's being played.

EricV

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1343 on: September 28, 2017, 08:37:04 pm »

I am not a climate change skeptic, so I normally disagree with Alan, but I have to agree here.  The article was careful to make factually correct statements, but it was clearly designed to deceive.
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LesPalenik

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1344 on: September 28, 2017, 08:58:11 pm »

That's sad. The scientists make things up and insurance companies are deceitful. Whom can you believe these days? I guess, only the top man in charge.
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Ray

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1345 on: September 28, 2017, 09:18:12 pm »

Alan, have you read that report and watched Bill Nye's video? To me, both the report and the video look very credible.
And all those roofs blown off and houses under the water seemed quite real.

If all those roofs blown off had been covered with solar panels, the damage bill would have been even greater.  ;)

Assessing the severity of an extreme weather event according the amount of damage done to lives and property is an understandable emotional reaction, but it is not scientific.

As populations expand, and the authorities fail to impose appropriate building standards to protect citizens from the very likely repetition of previous, known, extreme weather events, it follows, as obviously as night follows day, that the next major storm will cause even greater damage.

Blaming such increased damage on rising CO2 levels is not only a type of scapegoat, it actually makes the problem worse by 'letting the authorities off the hook' and focusing attention on the imaginary cause of rising CO2 levels, instead of the real cause of inadequate building codes.

By failing to tackle the real cause, the problem remains unsolved. A very graphic example of this situation is the city of Brisbane in Australia, which is situated close to both sides of the Brisbane River.

The last time we had a major flood in Brisbane was early 2011, following a significant period of drought. At the time, the flood was described in the media as the worst flood ever, the worst in living memory, a once-in-a hundred-year event, and so on. It was described as yet another example of a worsening climate due to human emissions of CO2.

I imagine that those false media reports will stick in the minds of many people, because the media tends not to correct itself later on, when everything has settled down, and apologize for its earlier misleading statements.

When one looks at the best 'scientific' record we have, from the Bureau of Meteorology, it's obvious that in terms of flood height, that 2011 flood in Brisbane was not even close to the worst on record. It was the 7th worst on record. It wasn't even the worst in living memory. 37 years earlier, in 1974, there was a major flood which was a full metre higher. Check out the attached graph.

However, what does appear to be true, is that the 2011 flood resulted in damage to the greatest quantity of houses and infrastructure, by far, in the entire history of the city, due to continuing population expansion, and economic development without sufficient regard to the historical context of major flooding events in the area.

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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1346 on: September 28, 2017, 10:00:13 pm »

I am not a climate change skeptic, so I normally disagree with Alan, but I have to agree here.  The article was careful to make factually correct statements, but it was clearly designed to deceive.
Wow.  I respect honesty.  You've warmed my heart. :)

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1347 on: September 28, 2017, 10:23:33 pm »

Another useful tool in improving the air quality is the cow methane backpack. We'll need many more of them.



https://www.good.is/articles/backpack-collects-cow-farts
I think the cow fart is just part of the earth's natural cycle.  It's a closed loop.  Otherwise, the earth would have extinguished itself years ago long before man even arrived at the scene.  Just like Darwin's cycle of selectivity and natural adjustments effecting species, the earth operates similarly.  What's surprising is that people who respect Darwin, give man and the earth short shrift. 

The farts, CO2 and other effluents of cows cause more CO2 and growth of vegetation that the cow eats and grows in weight supporting all that extra carbon that was in the air.  So the carbon transferred from the air to the grass to the flesh of the cow to its farts to start the re-cycle again.  Ok, we're burning carbon that was stored in the earth millions of years ago.  We know 40% of it is absorbed in the ocean. Does that create more fuel for algae and other green things to support more coral reefs and crustaceans for let's say whale so their populations grow which is what we want, isn't it?  If they grow, they absorb the carbon like the cows do.  I suppose they fart too, re-cycling all that stuff back into the air for the grass to grow.  Maybe we an put backpacks on whales and catch their methane.  Think of all the refrigerators we could run. 

Tony Jay

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1348 on: September 28, 2017, 10:44:46 pm »

If all those roofs blown off had been covered with solar panels, the damage bill would have been even greater.  ;)

Assessing the severity of an extreme weather event according the amount of damage done to lives and property is an understandable emotional reaction, but it is not scientific.

As populations expand, and the authorities fail to impose appropriate building standards to protect citizens from the very likely repetition of previous, known, extreme weather events, it follows, as obviously as night follows day, that the next major storm will cause even greater damage.

Blaming such increased damage on rising CO2 levels is not only a type of scapegoat, it actually makes the problem worse by 'letting the authorities off the hook' and focusing attention on the imaginary cause of rising CO2 levels, instead of the real cause of inadequate building codes.

By failing to tackle the real cause, the problem remains unsolved. A very graphic example of this situation is the city of Brisbane in Australia, which is situated close to both sides of the Brisbane River.

The last time we had a major flood in Brisbane was early 2011, following a significant period of drought. At the time, the flood was described in the media as the worst flood ever, the worst in living memory, a once-in-a hundred-year event, and so on. It was described as yet another example of a worsening climate due to human emissions of CO2.

I imagine that those false media reports will stick in the minds of many people, because the media tends not to correct itself later on, when everything has settled down, and apologize for its earlier misleading statements.

When one looks at the best 'scientific' record we have, from the Bureau of Meteorology, it's obvious that in terms of flood height, that 2011 flood in Brisbane was not even close to the worst on record. It was the 7th worst on record. It wasn't even the worst in living memory. 37 years earlier, in 1974, there was a major flood which was a full metre higher. Check out the attached graph.

However, what does appear to be true, is that the 2011 flood resulted in damage to the greatest quantity of houses and infrastructure, by far, in the entire history of the city, due to continuing population expansion, and economic development without sufficient regard to the historical context of major flooding events in the area.

Ray is correct!

The flooding of the Brisbane River was definitely a man-made event but CO2 had nothing to do with it!
Unbelievably stupid and short-sighted decisions were the root cause of the problem.

This river has always had a potential for major flooding.
After the carnage of the 1974 event it was decided to try and prevent a similar flood in the future.
So, the Wivenhoe Dam was built well upstream from Brisbane and Ipswich (another major city just inland from Brisbane) as a flood mitigation measure.
However, over time several issues coalesced to make the flood mitigation role of that dam basically irrelevant.

Firstly, the false sense of security afforded by the building of the Wivenhoe Dam seduced town planners and property developers to crowd development along the very banks of the river.
What had been industrial land and warehousing (low value land because of the flooding risk) all along the extensive flood plain of the Brisbane River and its tributaries rapidly became the focus of a property boom.
Many of the most significant property developments of the 30 years following 1974 in Brisbane were located on flood-prone land.

Furthermore, Brisbane, and South-east Queensland saw economic development and population expansion on a par with the Asian Tigers further north in Asia.
As a result the demand for water rose hugely.
The demand for water more than subtly changed the role of Wivenhoe Dam from flood mitigation to a primary water storage facility (in other words it was kept as full as possible rather than low for flood mitigation).

The problem with water supply became even more acute during the 2000's when Australia in general and Queensland in particular suffered catastrophic drought. I will put it this way: it is hard to think about about flooding for the average punter when there are severe water restrictions, farmers are committing suicide, and travelling inland from Brisbane one could go a thousand kilometres without seeing a blade of grass.
The emphasis was well and truly on water conservation!

Then, in 2010, the situation changed dramatically.
The strong El Nino that had been present for several years abruptly cycled into one the strongest La Nina events recorded.
From midway through 2010 the whole of Eastern and Central Australia was subject to heavy unseasonal rains that continued into the Summer Monsoon. Large, huge, parts of Australia were under water for days or weeks at a time. Some areas had repeated flooding events.

Along the East of Australia heading into December of 2010 there had been good rains that progressively filled dams and rivers that had previously been empty or close to empty. This included the Wivenhoe Dam and several other water storage dams around the area as well. The ground was saturated due to months and months of consistent rain every couple of weeks. Then throughout December of 2010 a series of rain events all up and down the extensive east coast and adjacent interior of Queensland began. No attempt was made to revert back to flood mitigation with respect to the Wivenhoe Dam.

When the floods came affecting the Brisbane River catchment around the end of December 2010 the hydrological engineers had no choice to but to open the gates in order to prevent the likely destruction of the dam.
It is true that if the dam had been destroyed the effect of that flood in 2011 would have been much greater.

As Ray has indicated the overall height of the flood war about a metre less than in 1974 but the damage was orders of magnitude higher. All the new development along the river was affected.
Areas that had not previously been flood-prone went under because all the new development affected the flow dynamics on the flood plain.
Most industry and warehousing had contingency plans in place but all the fancy commercial and residential development all suffered from the blind and false belief that a flood of this magnitude was not possible anymore.
The result was catastrophic!

All man-made...

Tony Jay
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LesPalenik

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1349 on: September 28, 2017, 11:05:39 pm »

It looks like these problems are not confined only to Australia. Even the New Orleans and Houston floods were due to large extent to poor city planning.

Quote
Impact of flooding, particularly in densely developed areas like cities, is far more constant than a massive, natural disaster like Harvey exposes. The reason cities flood isn’t because the water comes in, not exactly. It’s because the pavement of civilization forces the water to get back out again.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/08/why-cities-flood/538251/
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1350 on: September 28, 2017, 11:30:46 pm »

It looks like these problems are not confined only to Australia. Even the New Orleans and Houston floods were due to large extent to poor city planning.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/08/why-cities-flood/538251/

Also, what caused the 50 inches of rain that fell on Houston was not that the storm produced more rain than other similar hurricanes.  Rather, it stalled due to high pressure ridges on both of its sides that kept it in the Houston area rather than moving on to drop its precipitation elsewhere.  Of course, climate change proponents blamed the high pressure ridges and stalling on climate change.  Now, isn't that clever of them? 

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1351 on: September 28, 2017, 11:36:27 pm »

Ray is correct!

The flooding of the Brisbane River was definitely a man-made event but CO2 had nothing to do with it!
Unbelievably stupid and short-sighted decisions were the root cause of the problem.

This river has always had a potential for major flooding.
After the carnage of the 1974 event it was decided to try and prevent a similar flood in the future.
So, the Wivenhoe Dam was built well upstream from Brisbane and Ipswich (another major city just inland from Brisbane) as a flood mitigation measure.
However, over time several issues coalesced to make the flood mitigation role of that dam basically irrelevant.

Firstly, the false sense of security afforded by the building of the Wivenhoe Dam seduced town planners and property developers to crowd development along the very banks of the river.
What had been industrial land and warehousing (low value land because of the flooding risk) all along the extensive flood plain of the Brisbane River and its tributaries rapidly became the focus of a property boom.
Many of the most significant property developments of the 30 years following 1974 in Brisbane were located on flood-prone land.

Furthermore, Brisbane, and South-east Queensland saw economic development and population expansion on a par with the Asian Tigers further north in Asia.
As a result the demand for water rose hugely.
The demand for water more than subtly changed the role of Wivenhoe Dam from flood mitigation to a primary water storage facility (in other words it was kept as full as possible rather than low for flood mitigation).

The problem with water supply became even more acute during the 2000's when Australia in general and Queensland in particular suffered catastrophic drought. I will put it this way: it is hard to think about about flooding for the average punter when there are severe water restrictions, farmers are committing suicide, and travelling inland from Brisbane one could go a thousand kilometres without seeing a blade of grass.
The emphasis was well and truly on water conservation!

Then, in 2010, the situation changed dramatically.
The strong El Nino that had been present for several years abruptly cycled into one the strongest La Nina events recorded.
From midway through 2010 the whole of Eastern and Central Australia was subject to heavy unseasonal rains that continued into the Summer Monsoon. Large, huge, parts of Australia were under water for days or weeks at a time. Some areas had repeated flooding events.

Along the East of Australia heading into December of 2010 there had been good rains that progressively filled dams and rivers that had previously been empty or close to empty. This included the Wivenhoe Dam and several other water storage dams around the area as well. The ground was saturated due to months and months of consistent rain every couple of weeks. Then throughout December of 2010 a series of rain events all up and down the extensive east coast and adjacent interior of Queensland began. No attempt was made to revert back to flood mitigation with respect to the Wivenhoe Dam.

When the floods came affecting the Brisbane River catchment around the end of December 2010 the hydrological engineers had no choice to but to open the gates in order to prevent the likely destruction of the dam.
It is true that if the dam had been destroyed the effect of that flood in 2011 would have been much greater.

As Ray has indicated the overall height of the flood war about a metre less than in 1974 but the damage was orders of magnitude higher. All the new development along the river was affected.
Areas that had not previously been flood-prone went under because all the new development affected the flow dynamics on the flood plain.
Most industry and warehousing had contingency plans in place but all the fancy commercial and residential development all suffered from the blind and false belief that a flood of this magnitude was not possible anymore.
The result was catastrophic!

All man-made...

Tony Jay
What's interesting about this would be if we actually focused on reducing carbon usage to reduce CO2.  Then because we felt so good about what we were doing, we would double building homes and cities in flood plains figuring we have nothing to worry about.  And then suffer worse damage from even milder storms and floods.  What's that about the law of unanticipated consequences? 

LesPalenik

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1352 on: September 28, 2017, 11:53:12 pm »

Also, what caused the 50 inches of rain that fell on Houston was not that the storm produced more rain than other similar hurricanes.  Rather, it stalled due to high pressure ridges on both of its sides that kept it in the Houston area rather than moving on to drop its precipitation elsewhere.  Of course, climate change proponents blamed the high pressure ridges and stalling on climate change.  Now, isn't that clever of them?

Could well be the Russians. At this point, no evidence of collusion between the Russians and the hurricane Harvey has been made public. It may or may not exist. There is an ongoing investigation which may reveal important details before the next hurricane season. Or not.
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PeterAit

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1353 on: September 29, 2017, 04:36:37 pm »

Alan,

Given your great skill in denying things that are essentially proven by the evidence, may I suggest a few other targets for your vast knowledge and intelligence:

- Evolution is false.
- The earth is 6000 years old.
- Flying saucers exist.
- Vaccines cause autism.
- Obama was born in Kenya.
- Microwave ovens make food radioactive.

Have at it!
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1354 on: September 29, 2017, 05:30:39 pm »

Alan,

Given your great skill in denying things that are essentially proven by the evidence, may I suggest a few other targets for your vast knowledge and intelligence:

- Evolution is false.
- The earth is 6000 years old.
- Flying saucers exist.
- Vaccines cause autism.
- Obama was born in Kenya.
- Microwave ovens make food radioactive.

Have at it!
What have I said that was incorrect about global warming?  Trying to smear me with those other claims, which I never stated, is just the liberal way of ad hominin attacks rather then presenting facts contrary to what I said.   Don't be lazy.  :)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1355 on: September 29, 2017, 06:58:19 pm »

It looks like these problems are not confined only to Australia. Even the New Orleans and Houston floods were due to large extent to poor city planning.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/08/why-cities-flood/538251/

Indeed, the "Water management" leaves a lot to be desired, and urban planning is a part of that. But it would be naive to only address that, since there is also an increasing amount of precipitation and meltwater expected to add to the problem, depending on location. Of course there is also a role for governments, to discourage bad development plans, educate the public, and stop the denial science.

Cheers,
Bart
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1356 on: September 29, 2017, 07:09:43 pm »

Also, what caused the 50 inches of rain that fell on Houston was not that the storm produced more rain than other similar hurricanes.

Do you have any evidence that the storm didn't produce more rain?

EDIT BTW:Harvey broke a national rainfall record for a single tropical storm
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/29/16221542/hurricane-harvey-rainfall-record-houston
A single event is not proof, but record highs getting higher is part of a trend.

Quote
Rather, it stalled due to high pressure ridges on both of its sides that kept it in the Houston area rather than moving on to drop its precipitation elsewhere.

Sure, that didn't help the situation, but do you have any evidence that the particular distribution of winds (and the lack of wind shear) was a one-off situation rather than a new normal?

Quote
Of course, climate change proponents blamed the high pressure ridges and stalling on climate change.  Now, isn't that clever of them?

Ah. I see that you have already made up your mind, in order to not act on helping to reduce the issues yourself. All small initiatives combined, lead to a massive effort that will make a difference, but the longer we wait the harder (and more costly) it will become.

Cheers,
Bart


P.S. Average monthly rainfall for Houston is 3.8 inches, so 40 up to 50 inches in a few days does seem extreme (and makes it hard to avoid some flooding). However, while it may have been bad luck that the trajectory was unfavorable for specific locations, like Houston, the probability that precipitation amounts will increase is high. That increasing probability does have something to do with warmer oceans and warmer atmosphere that can take up more moisture.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2017, 07:25:40 am by BartvanderWolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1357 on: October 01, 2017, 06:53:59 am »

Do you have any evidence that the storm didn't produce more rain?

EDIT BTW:Harvey broke a national rainfall record for a single tropical storm
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/29/16221542/hurricane-harvey-rainfall-record-houston
A single event is not proof, but record highs getting higher is part of a trend.

Sure, that didn't help the situation, but do you have any evidence that the particular distribution of winds (and the lack of wind shear) was a one-off situation rather than a new normal?

Ah. I see that you have already made up your mind, in order to not act on helping to reduce the issues yourself. All small initiatives combined, lead to a massive effort that will make a difference, but the longer we wait the harder (and more costly) it will become.

Cheers,
Bart


P.S. Average monthly rainfall for Houston is 3.8 inches, so 40 up to 50 inches in a few days does seem extreme (and makes it hard to avoid some flooding). However, while it may have been bad luck that the trajectory was unfavorable for specific locations, like Houston, the probability that precipitation amounts will increase is high. That increasing probability does have something to do with warmer oceans and warmer atmosphere that can take up more moisture.

Bart, You have a knack for twisting facts.  Maximum rainfall in one spot doesn't give the entire rainfall of a storm since a storm moves.  If this storm didn't stall because of high pressure ridges elsewhere, a coincidence unrelated to global warming, the rain would have been 20 inches in Houston instead of 50.  There would have been more rain in other places where the storm would have moved.  Also, because it stalled over water, it kept drawing water from the sea adding to the total rain. 

You then ask me to prove it's not a new normal rather than the one-off that you say it was.  That's crazy logic.  You prove how a one-off storm has now become the new normal.  It's a "one-off".

Alan Klein

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1358 on: October 01, 2017, 06:55:32 am »

I think the cow fart is just part of the earth's natural cycle.  It's a closed loop.  Otherwise, the earth would have extinguished itself years ago long before man even arrived at the scene.  Just like Darwin's cycle of selectivity and natural adjustments effecting species, the earth operates similarly.  What's surprising is that people who respect Darwin, give man and the earth short shrift. 

The farts, CO2 and other effluents of cows cause more CO2 and growth of vegetation that the cow eats and grows in weight supporting all that extra carbon that was in the air.  So the carbon transferred from the air to the grass to the flesh of the cow to its farts to start the re-cycle again.  Ok, we're burning carbon that was stored in the earth millions of years ago.  We know 40% of it is absorbed in the ocean. Does that create more fuel for algae and other green things to support more coral reefs and crustaceans for let's say whale so their populations grow which is what we want, isn't it?  If they grow, they absorb the carbon like the cows do.  I suppose they fart too, re-cycling all that stuff back into the air for the grass to grow.  Maybe we an put backpacks on whales and catch their methane.  Think of all the refrigerators we could run. 

It's cows causing warming not man. :)
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/213955/20170930/methane-from-livestock-scientists-underestimated-impact-of-cow-fart-on-climate-change.htm

LesPalenik

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Re: Skepticism about Climate Change
« Reply #1359 on: October 01, 2017, 09:09:55 pm »

Not only cows, but also swine and other livestock. The Paris accord focuses on CO2 reduction, but methane is about 85 times more powerful when it comes to trapping heat.

One way to reduce the livestock methane is to eat less meat and more plant-based food. It helps your arteries, too.
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