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Author Topic: Trump II  (Read 918193 times)

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1080 on: March 07, 2017, 07:47:09 am »

Coincidentally I was reading on the Alan Turing website about Fuzzy logic, when that whole "alternative fact" thing took place.

http://www.alanturing.net/turing_archive/pages/Reference%20Articles/what_is_AI/What%20is%20AI07.html


Welcome back, Oscar!

32BT

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1081 on: March 07, 2017, 09:41:10 am »


That's the whole purpose of spreading Fake news, Alternative facts, it's a tactic of spreading disinformation.


I always understood that this spreading of disinformation had the intent of manipulating public opinion. Once the channels become flooded, an entirely new problem surfaces: the fact that it is (or at least used to be) the job of journalism to separate the wheat from the chaff, and whether they are able to do so properly. This is a separate issue from "investigative journalism", since they already use the framing as presented by respective sides, like naming a "temporary travel ban" a "Muslim ban" when you already pointed out that not all muslims are targeted (nor deported for that matter). It is very interesting to read the original EXO, which includes for example the protection against revenge crimes.

Or singling out stories of individual cases, however sad, bad, or contorted they may be, where they are not relevant to a larger policy institution. This by the way is something typical of recent times, where you even see this happening in national politics.

I don't want national politicians to focus on individual cases. In fact, it should be, and may even already be, illegal, if you think about that.

And when a Judge finds your policy not legally supported, it doesn't mean he/she is against the policy, it should merely be a state of legal facts that some policy doesn't have the correct legal bases or implementation (yet).

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32BT

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1082 on: March 07, 2017, 09:45:33 am »

Welcome back, Oscar!

Thanks, and good to see you still here. I'm planning on contributing regularly again.
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32BT

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1083 on: March 07, 2017, 10:19:54 am »


It is still not cleared up what caused Trump's accusations of Obama ordering a wiretapping of Trump in his Trump tower. The authorities who should know, deny that such an operation existed and add that such accusations hurt the intelligence community (which is part of Trump's tactics):
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-wiretap-idUSKBN16D21T

Cheers,
Bart

Yes, it will be interesting to see what unfolds. It did get me thinking: if a US adversary would run for president, does that exempt him/her from wiretapping? (If for example the Russian ties of Trump or his team were reasons for concern and thus wiretapping did happen prior to him running for president?)
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1084 on: March 07, 2017, 10:49:20 am »

Yes, it will be interesting to see what unfolds. It did get me thinking: if a US adversary would run for president, does that exempt him/her from wiretapping? (If for example the Russian ties of Trump or his team were reasons for concern and thus wiretapping did happen prior to him running for president?)

First and foremost, a President cannot order such a(n alleged) wiretap. There is a formal legal process for that, proportionality, checks, and balances, so multiple people would be in the know. Second, anybody could be wiretapped, but only if there is a legal ground for that. Third, we do not know what the secret services already know. Which might be a reason to undermine their credibility.

I could imagine that people like (former election campaign manager) Paul Manafort are on a watch-list, because it was known to everybody (apparently except Trump) that he had prior connections to dictatorial regimes and helped to get some very bad people elected as president there.

But that's not the same as claiming that the (former) President ordered a wiretap on a specific person, especially if the source was nothing more than an article on a website. If that's the case, then one might question the mental stability of the person making such claims.

Cheers,
Bart
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32BT

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1085 on: March 07, 2017, 11:07:22 am »

I could imagine that people like (former election campaign manager) Paul Manafort are on a watch-list, because it was known to everybody (apparently except Trump) that he had prior connections to dictatorial regimes and helped to get some very bad people elected as president there.

But that's not the same as claiming that the (former) President ordered a wiretap on a specific person, especially if the source was nothing more than an article on a website. If that's the case, then one might question the mental stability of the person making such claims.

Cheers,
Bart

well, careful phrasing is not the current president's forté, that's for sure.

What about Steve Bannon? Could he be considered a "liability" given his background?
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1086 on: March 07, 2017, 12:00:48 pm »



It's getting increasingly hard to filter the news in general, right-wing or left-wing, for truly independent newsvalue. And that is probably the most dangerous result from all of this. It's one thing to block the newsoutlets from access, it is entirely another to have it flooded with "fake news" or "fuzzy news" from both sides...
  The news is distorted to fit their viewers.  They preach to the choir.  If they were to change it and make it more fair and balanced, they would lose their viewers.  So the bias continues.   If you read the comments in the liberal NY Times, you'll see 90% are biased liberal.  Similar with Washington Post. Ditto with cable.  MSNBC is very liberal, CNN less so, Fox is more to the right.  You have to watch all sides to get different viewpoints then make up your own mind.   Unfortunately, most people just want to be in the choir. 

HSakols

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1087 on: March 07, 2017, 12:43:37 pm »

Most people know bigotry when they see it.
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stamper

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1088 on: March 07, 2017, 01:38:34 pm »

  The news is distorted to fit their viewers.  They preach to the choir.  If they were to change it and make it more fair and balanced, they would lose their viewers.  So the bias continues.   If you read the comments in the liberal NY Times, you'll see 90% are biased liberal.  Similar with Washington Post. Ditto with cable.  MSNBC is very liberal, CNN less so, Fox is more to the right.  You have to watch all sides to get different viewpoints then make up your own mind.   Unfortunately, most people just want to be in the choir. 

You are obviously convinced that the right are right and the left are wrong? Your bias is blatant
 and you aren't in a position to preach about impartiality.  :(

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1089 on: March 07, 2017, 01:54:20 pm »

No. 2 Senate Republican says Senate to probe Trump's wiretap claims:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-wiretap-idUSKBN16E2DT

Cheers,
Bart
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1090 on: March 07, 2017, 02:10:36 pm »

Fact-checking Trump's tweet about Guantanamo Bay detainees:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fact-checking-trumps-tweet-guantanamo-bay-detainees/story?id=45960699

Cheers,
Bart
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1091 on: March 07, 2017, 02:24:55 pm »

You are obviously convinced that the right are right and the left are wrong? Your bias is blatant
 and you aren't in a position to preach about impartiality.  :(
Yes, I am biased like most people. But I'm an individual,  not a news outlet. They should be unbiased so we can get the full story. Don't you think so?

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1092 on: March 07, 2017, 02:26:43 pm »

Trump says Exxon expansion program reflects his jobs campaign promise, but plan was hatched in 2013:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-exxon-expansion-program-reflects-jobs-campaign-promise/story?id=45955001

Cheers,
Bart
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1093 on: March 07, 2017, 02:38:25 pm »

Trump says Exxon expansion program reflects his jobs campaign promise, but plan was hatched in 2013:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-exxon-expansion-program-reflects-jobs-campaign-promise/story?id=45955001

Cheers,
Bart
Trump's a piker. Obama has taken credit for 12 million jobs since 2009.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1094 on: March 07, 2017, 02:43:41 pm »

Trump says Exxon expansion program reflects his jobs campaign promise, but plan was hatched in 2013: ...

So?

Quote
...Still, during a keynote speech Monday at an oil and gas industry conference in Houston, Woods gave credit to the Trump administration.

"Investments of this scale require a pro-growth approach and a stable regulatory environment, and we appreciate the president's commitment to both,"

Have you ever asked yourself why the so-called Obama recovery is the longest recovery in the history of recoveries? While corporate profits and cash reserves reached historic proportions?

Companies have been holding off on their plans to spend all that record cash levels, which might have been "hatched" years ago, WAITING for a better business environment. Hence the credit for Trump.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1095 on: March 07, 2017, 03:02:27 pm »

Companies have been holding off on their plans to spend all that record cash levels, which might have been "hatched" years ago, WAITING for a better business environment. Hence the credit for Trump.

Really?

Boeing moves ahead with job cuts as 1,800 take buyouts:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/02/news/companies/boeing-job-cuts/

GM to cut another 1,100 jobs:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/06/news/companies/gm-layoffs/

Walmart Cutting Hundreds of Jobs In Latest Round of Layoffs:
http://fortune.com/2017/01/10/walmart-jobs-layoffs/
Apparently, others have also waited for Trump:
"The latest job cuts comes as a number of other retailers slash payrolls too. Macy's (m, +0.65%) said last week it was cutting 10,000 jobs and closing 68 stores this year, while The Limited this weekend laid off 4,000 workers as it closed all its stores but kept its web site active."

Cheers,
Bart

P.S. and some other related news.

Is NAFTA Really to Blame?
Trump's claim that trade deals have led to the decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs doesn't hold water.
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/articles/2017-02-15/is-donald-trump-right-to-blame-nafta-for-us-job-losses
« Last Edit: March 07, 2017, 03:31:24 pm by BartvanderWolf »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1096 on: March 07, 2017, 04:14:35 pm »

Really?

Boeing moves ahead with job cuts as 1,800 take buyouts:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/02/news/companies/boeing-job-cuts/

GM to cut another 1,100 jobs:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/06/news/companies/gm-layoffs/

Walmart Cutting Hundreds of Jobs In Latest Round of Layoffs:
http://fortune.com/2017/01/10/walmart-jobs-layoffs/
Apparently, others have also waited for Trump:
"The latest job cuts comes as a number of other retailers slash payrolls too. Macy's (m, +0.65%) said last week it was cutting 10,000 jobs and closing 68 stores this year, while The Limited this weekend laid off 4,000 workers as it closed all its stores but kept its web site active."

Cheers,
Bart

P.S. and some other related news.

Is NAFTA Really to Blame?
Trump's claim that trade deals have led to the decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs doesn't hold water.
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/articles/2017-02-15/is-donald-trump-right-to-blame-nafta-for-us-job-losses

So far, most of the claims Trump makes about creating new jobs are symbolic feel-good measures.  I also agree that messing around with border taxes and other trade variables might turn out more negative than positive. The sharpest arrows in his economic quiver are lowering personal and business taxes, bringing back overseas profits of American corporations, reducing regulation and freshening up Obamacare to take the pressure off of businesses.

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1097 on: March 07, 2017, 04:16:14 pm »

Companies have been holding off on their plans to spend all that record cash levels, which might have been "hatched" years ago, WAITING for a better business environment. Hence the credit for Trump.
most of the cash you are referring to is held by overseas subsidiaries that were set up for tax purposes and really serve no useful function other than to just sit there.  I don't think this is "waiting for a better business environment" but rather waiting until the tax laws are changed to encouraged repatriation of those funds.  This was done back in 2002 or thereabouts under Bush-II.  The claim was that the money coming back was going to spur a tremendous amount of new business in the US.  It was principally used to buy back shares of the company which made the stock price higher which led to higher CEO pay because the company surpassed the metrics that the compensation consultants helped establish.  Certainly this is what the companies that had huge overseas holdings did.  I was working in the industry at the time and there was no huge uptick in R&D expenditures following repatriation but there was an increase in senior level compensation.  I look at all the 10-K filings of companies I have equity holdings (about 25, most of which are multinational) and I think pretty much the same thing that happened in 2002 will happen again.

Despite my pessimism outlined above in terms of massive increases in economic activity (there might be some but don't expect huge numbers of jobs to be created), the US corporate tax rate really needs to be drastically changed.  The tax preferences need to be closed and the rates lowered or eliminated and replaced by a standard value added tax (doubt the 2nd choice will happen).  We'll see what comes up but if it's just going to be tinkering the way they did the Obamacare replacement, count me disappointed.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1098 on: March 07, 2017, 04:21:01 pm »

The sharpest arrows in his economic quiver are lowering personal and business taxes, bringing back overseas profits of American corporations, reducing regulation and freshening up Obamacare to take the pressure off of businesses.
How is changing Obamacare going to take the pressure off of business.  All large firms offer plans to employees who don't care about Obamacare.  You saw what happened when the Republicans talked about eliminated the corporate tax deduction for employee provided health insurance (the only real way they could pay for their changes).  The had to pull back in a hurry.  Regarding regulation, it's really not anything at the national level that is holding things back but at the state and local levels.  Any new building permits and plans are done at that level and are relatively unaffected by Federal regulations (there could be EPA discharge permits for air and water that would have to be followed but those are probably good things unless you want dirty water, particulates in the air, or smog causing emissions floating around).
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1099 on: March 07, 2017, 04:31:09 pm »

most of the cash you are referring to is held by overseas subsidiaries that were set up for tax purposes and really serve no useful function other than to just sit there.  I don't think this is "waiting for a better business environment" but rather waiting until the tax laws are changed to encouraged repatriation of those funds.  This was done back in 2002 or thereabouts under Bush-II.  The claim was that the money coming back was going to spur a tremendous amount of new business in the US.  It was principally used to buy back shares of the company which made the stock price higher which led to higher CEO pay because the company surpassed the metrics that the compensation consultants helped establish.  Certainly this is what the companies that had huge overseas holdings did.  I was working in the industry at the time and there was no huge uptick in R&D expenditures following repatriation but there was an increase in senior level compensation.  I look at all the 10-K filings of companies I have equity holdings (about 25, most of which are multinational) and I think pretty much the same thing that happened in 2002 will happen again.

Despite my pessimism outlined above in terms of massive increases in economic activity (there might be some but don't expect huge numbers of jobs to be created), the US corporate tax rate really needs to be drastically changed.  The tax preferences need to be closed and the rates lowered or eliminated and replaced by a standard value added tax (doubt the 2nd choice will happen).  We'll see what comes up but if it's just going to be tinkering the way they did the Obamacare replacement, count me disappointed.

Profits brought back from overseas will be taxed reducing government debt and deficits, always a good thing.  Some of it will be used for investments by the corporations who own the profits.  Even the money used for stock buybacks go to the stock sellers who will have money they can put back into the economy with purchases of goods, services,  stocks, bonds, real estate and other business investments.
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