Trump II

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... Too much Kool-Aid?

Yeah...says the analyst from the other side of the ocean, whose only source is the lefty press, and everything else is "propaganda."

[Alan Goldhammer]

Yeah...says the analyst from the other side of the ocean, whose only source is the lefty press, and everything else is "propaganda."

We'll see what happens with health care and tax reform.  I think these are the two big issues that Trump will be judged on.  I think some of his supporters really want a wall to be built but that's just theater if you ask me.  Health care and tax reform affect everyone's bottom line and he has explicitly promised that these reforms will be tremendous.  It appears that Congress is all over the place on both issues and it might be that nothing gets done as they don't have the votes in the Senate to do anything unless there is bipartisan agreement.

EDIT:  it looks like things are getting sticky regarding Russia as Attorney General Sessions may have lied to Congress about contacts with Russia diplomats during the campaign when he was an advisor to Trump.  This is the sort of thing that brings people down and fast.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Worth remembering:

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

We'll see what happens with health care and tax reform.  I think these are the two big issues that Trump will be judged on.  I think some of his supporters really want a wall to be built but that's just theater if you ask me.  Health care and tax reform affect everyone's bottom line and he has explicitly promised that these reforms will be tremendous.  It appears that Congress is all over the place on both issues and it might be that nothing gets done as they don't have the votes in the Senate to do anything unless there is bipartisan agreement.

Another biggy is the Balance of Trade, which seems to only grow into a larger deficit if Trump's plans were to materialize (unless he manages to almost stop all imports). It looks unrealistic that the USA will export (create a Trade Surplus) enough to compensate for the increased cost of 'doing business at home', but we'll see.

EDIT:  it looks like things are getting sticky regarding Russia as Attorney General Sessions may have lied to Congress about contacts with Russia diplomats during the campaign when he was an advisor to Trump.  This is the sort of thing that brings people down and fast.

Well, his excuse appears to be that his contacts (with the Russian ambassador?) were in his prior role as Senator for Alabama, so that's why he denied having them to the committee.

Cheers,
Bart

[Alan Klein]

I always get a chuckle when I hear the President refer to the 94 million people in the US who are out of work.  Just for the record, I am one of those 94 million as are all the other retirees who are voluntarily not working, along with students, those on disability, etc.  He also used this during the campaign.  I don't know why he keeps putting up this phony stuff.  He would really do a lot better if he stuck to the facts.  I don't know if this was unscripted or not but the speech writer really should have known better.  This was one of the first thing the fact checkers nailed him on.

Of course, by parroting the liberal cable news (I saw that too on TV),  you found that one fact that is partially incorrect.  Meanwhile you missed his overall message that the economy stinks for millions of workers within the 94 million that are out of work and would like to have a job.  Another "gotcha" news factoid.  The fact is the employment rate is the lowest it has been since the 1970's.  The unemployment rate is a lie because they don't count so many people not looking for jobs or who have marginal jobs.  Your "gotcha"  argument misses the reason he won Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.   Even the Democrats are finally acknowledging they ignored these people and are changing their position.  He won because of the jobs. 

[Alan Klein]

...Well, his excuse appears to be that his contacts (with the Russian ambassador?) were in his prior role as Senator for Alabama, so that's why he denied having them to the committee.

Cheers,
Bart

So suddenly this story comes up right after Trump's successful speech to Congress which has now disappeared from the headlines.  Change the message.  Like no one at the Times knew about this for the last six months.  All part of the same campaign to delegitimize Trump.   One has to believe that Sessions, a lawyer,  conspired with Russia and violated Federal statutes that could send him to jail for years  by asking them to hack the DNC .   "Oh, Ambassador Kisylak, while you're at it, do you think you could also help us with Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania?"

[Alan Goldhammer]

Worth remembering:

As long as this keeps up (which it won't), I'm a happy camper.  Truth be told, my portfolio was really smiling during the Obama years!

[Alan Goldhammer]

Of course, by parroting the liberal cable news (I saw that too on TV),  you found that one fact that is partially incorrect.  Meanwhile you missed his overall message that the economy stinks for millions of workers within the 94 million that are out of work and would like to have a job.  Another "gotcha" news factoid.  The fact is the employment rate is the lowest it has been since the 1970's.  The unemployment rate is a lie because they don't count so many people not looking for jobs or who have marginal jobs.  Your "gotcha"  argument misses the reason he won Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.   Even the Democrats are finally acknowledging they ignored these people and are changing their position.  He won because of the jobs.

I never questioned that.  The difficulty is that he has made promises that are almost impossible to keep.  Do you think coal is going to come back any time soon?  It really doesn't matter as the number of employees in the coal industry is small to begin with.  Look at the manufacturing sector which he has highlighted.  Lots of job losses resulting from automation, neglecting to automate resulting in bankruptcy (most of the steel industry over the years), and forced job attrition because of hedge fund managers pushing otherwise healthy companies into mergers or downsizing.  Look at what his good friend and advisor, Carl Icahn, has done over the years.  Lots of investments where he has 'greenmailed' management into making changes that were not in the best interest of the company.  Some industries are gone because labor is less expensive overseas.  I don't think the textile industry is returning to the US.  These are all long term trends and I don't think they can be turned around.

[Alan Goldhammer]

So suddenly this story comes up right after Trump's successful speech to Congress which has now disappeared from the headlines.  Change the message.  Like no one at the Times knew about this for the last six months.  All part of the same campaign to delegitimize Trump.   One has to believe that Sessions, a lawyer,  conspired with Russia and violated Federal statutes that could send him to jail for years  by asking them to hack the DNC .   "Oh, Ambassador Kisylak, while you're at it, do you think you could also help us with Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania?"

Richard Nixon was a able lawyer as well and you see what happened there.  Perhaps all of this was innocent conversation and that's just fine but don't cover it up.

[Alan Klein]

I never questioned that.  The difficulty is that he has made promises that are almost impossible to keep.  Do you think coal is going to come back any time soon?  It really doesn't matter as the number of employees in the coal industry is small to begin with.  Look at the manufacturing sector which he has highlighted.  Lots of job losses resulting from automation, neglecting to automate resulting in bankruptcy (most of the steel industry over the years), and forced job attrition because of hedge fund managers pushing otherwise healthy companies into mergers or downsizing.  Look at what his good friend and advisor, Carl Icahn, has done over the years.  Lots of investments where he has 'greenmailed' management into making changes that were not in the best interest of the company.  Some industries are gone because labor is less expensive overseas.  I don't think the textile industry is returning to the US.  These are all long term trends and I don't think they can be turned around.

I agree with many of your points.  I think many of the unemployed in those industries agree with you as well.  They're not stupid.  They can read the handwriting on the wall.  However, what Trump did during the campaign is give hope to many people in middle America that Hillary and the Democrats ignored.  These people were their traditional base who voted for Obama and Democrats for years.  Even if Trump can only get a few of their jobs back, it's important for people to feel that their leaders have not forgotten them.  The arguments Trump makes about Ford and Carrier jobs not going to Mexico are not substantial in quantity.  But they are symbolic.  People feel he continues to care and is trying the best he can to help.  That's important to them. 

If Trump can get the economy going, beside helping with your market investment which I think is great, better and more jobs will flow to all Americans.  At least if you're an unemployed ex-steel worker, that will be good for your kids if not for you personally.   What I fear is that the deficit, debt, printing money, public demand for more services, and stupid way we do things economically are so entrenched, that we won't be able to overcome the mess we're in.   And we're due for another recession.  The stock market is in a bubble and investors are putting all their faith that Trump will deliver.  He better.  For him and us.   

[JNB_Rare]

Lots of job losses resulting from automation

CBC Article: 42% of Canadian jobs at high risk of being affected by automation, new study suggests. The Brookfield Institute for Innovation + Entrepreneurship at Toronto's Ryerson University said in its report that automation previously has been restricted to routine, manual tasks. However, breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and advanced robotics now means that automation is moving into "cognitive, non-routine tasks and occupations, such as driving and conducting job interviews."

As well or better than humans: Automation set for big promotions in white-collar job market. "We are starting to see in fields like medicine, law, investment banking, dramatic increases in the ability of computers to think as well or better than humans. And that's really the game-changer here. Because that's something that we have never seen before."

Just two recent ones of many such predictions. I've been peripherally following this since the 1980's (the AI bit). This will be a world wide issue.

[Alan Klein]

I worked for Univac Computer Division of Sperry Rand in the late 1960's.  That's 50 years ago.  Back then people were also worried about all the jobs computers would replace.  So, nothing new.  The fact is as long as the economy is humming, there will be jobs. Of course, there will be displacement, and re-training may be required, but computers, high tech, software, AI, etc. will just create new opportunities for different kinds of work. 

As long as we have free markets where the government gets out of the way, the jobs will be there.  I was just reading a story about New York City.  The financial district downtown lost 14 million square feet of office space in 2001 because of the 911 terrorist attacks.  Since then, that area has built 34 million square feet of new office space, over two times that lost.  This doesn't include the midtown area which has also built new office buildings.  NYC grew from 7 million people in the 1970's during the last economic crisis there, to 8 1/2 million today.   Who knows how many more illegals there are?   There are 1 1/2 million office workers, more than ever before.  (Remember all the secretaries there use to be and now we've become our own secretaries with our laptops.  So the office workers are doing different things.)  Computers have made us more productive as well.  OK, NYC isn't the rust belt.  And there will be displacement.  But as we advance technologically, people learn the new ways.  After all, what were the steel workers doing before steel? 

[Alan Klein]

I was just reading about that new discovery of seven new planets around a single star that may be like Earth.  I think they were discovered by the same climatologists who discovered global warming.  Trump should add these seven planets to the list of seven countries.  Just in case.  Who needs more illegal aliens who aren't vetted properly.  Anyone coming should be searched for ray guns.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

As I said before, when everything else fails (in explaining the crushing defeat of the Democrats), blame Russia. This article, by the former Congressman Ron Paul (and presidential candidate - in the primaries) explains, from his perspective, why:

http://www.ronpaullibertyreport.com/archives/enemy-of-the-year-why-russia

[Alan Klein]

As I said before, when everything else fails (in explaining the crushing defeat of the Democrats), blame Russia. This article, by the former Congressman Ron Paul (and presidential candidate - in the primaries) explains, from his perspective, why:

http://www.ronpaullibertyreport.com/archives/enemy-of-the-year-why-russia

I think the Democrats finally acknowledge at least to themselves that it was the loss of Democratic voters in Wisconsin and the other swing states as the reason Hillary failed. Russia hacking the DNC is beside the point.   Of course they will continue to use it to try to delegitimize him.  Also, Russia is just a way of taking the excitement off the Trump pivot at the speech to Congress where he was Presidential and kept to the script.  I just saw him make a speech on the new aircraft carrier in Virginia where he again stuck to the script of expanding the military, buying ships and planes cheaper, and supporting the troops.  He continued to look Presidential yet behave as one of the guys, a powerful leader who cares about the troops.   No oddball tweets in two days either.  The Democrats are going to have to come up with a new way to try to diminish him since complaining "he's not fit to be President" won't sell anymore.  Everyone underestimates his intelligence and ability to adapt as well as sell himself.  He's a quick study. 

[tom b]

I think the Democrats finally acknowledge at least to themselves that it was the loss of Democratic voters in Wisconsin and the other swing states as the reason Hillary failed. Russia hacking the DNC is beside the point.   Of course they will continue to use it to try to delegitimize him.  Also, Russia is just a way of taking the excitement off the Trump pivot at the speech to Congress where he was Presidential and kept to the script.  I just saw him make a speech on the new aircraft carrier in Virginia where he again stuck to the script of expanding the military, buying ships and planes cheaper, and supporting the troops.  He continued to look Presidential yet behave as one of the guys, a powerful leader who cares about the troops.   No oddball tweets in two days either.  The Democrats are going to have to come up with a new way to try to diminish him since complaining "he's not fit to be President" won't sell anymore.  Everyone underestimates his intelligence and ability to adapt as well as sell himself.  He's a quick study.

Give us a break, you are a Trump supporter we get that, the rest of the world hopes that he doesn't drag us into a G W Bush GFC or some trillion dollar war.

Head smack,

[Alan Klein]

Give us a break, you are a Trump supporter we get that, the rest of the world hopes that he doesn't drag us into a G W Bush GFC or some trillion dollar war.

Head smack,

Tom,  I assume you're Australian from your web address.  Should we cancel our ANZUS Treaty?  Australia and New Zealand would have to defend itself against China expansion on its own.   We could pull out of NATO too and let Europe deal with Russia by itself.   There are a lot of Americans, led by Trump,  who frankly are tired of Americans bleeding and spending trillions for others who only complain about America.  Trump really has no interest in getting into foreign adventures, other than ISIS,  and would probably abandon ANZUS and NATO if he wasn't pressured by people in his own party.  He wants to make nice with Russia but others are pushing him into belligerency.   Trump's an isolationist. 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Isn't it amusing how they simultaneously accuse him of being friendly with Russia (or even a "puppet") and... wanting to start a WW3!?

[James Clark]

Isn't it amusing how they simultaneously accuse him of being friendly with Russia (or even a "puppet") and... wanting to start a WW3!?

You get that the theory is that Bannon and those of his ilk see Russia as the ally in an east/west ethno-nationalist conflict against Islam and/or China, right?

[Alan Klein]

Isn't it amusing how they simultaneously accuse him of being friendly with Russia (or even a "puppet") and... wanting to start a WW3!?

Trump will never win no matter what he does.  This is going to go on for the next four years.  I hope he's strong enough to stand up to his own Republican party and even his own Secretary of Defense and National Security Advisors.  I remember when the Soviet Union collapsed around 1990.  We immediately expanded into East European countries right next to Russia.  I thought that was crazy.  Why are we doing that?  The Cold War is over.  It's only antagonizing the Russians and making them fearful.  Their expansionism in response is more about creating a protective buffer zone rather than imperialism.  I remember how angry I was when the Soviets put missiles in Cuba in 1962.  Well, the Russians must have felt the same thing when NATO expanded next to their border. 

On the other hand, weakness promotes bullying.  So NATO has its advantages.  So, why doesn't Europe defend itself?  They're big enough.  They have a GDP that matches the US.  They have more people than us.  They have nuclear weapons.  They're just cheap.  They rather spend their money on national health care than armaments and laugh at us for not having national health while we spend our money on defending them.  Let them defend themselves.  Let them dig into their own pocketbooks.   The extra money we save can pay for our health and infrastructure. I'm for lowering our taxes.  On the other hand, I think some strategic American thinkers are concerned that a Europe without NATO might go to war with itself quicker than it would break out with Russia.  With the EU falling apart, old animosities might arise like we saw play out twice big time in the 20th Century.  Throw in a economic collapse, and it could reach a boiling point very quickly.  With NATO, America might be able to keep the lid on.