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Author Topic: Trump II  (Read 1400855 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1020 on: March 03, 2017, 06:03:32 pm »

As well as earth stations for satellite communications, logistical support for operations in the Pacific and Indian oceans and Antarctica, the marines stationed in Darwin, access to intel, access to information from the Jindalee OTHR, and so on.

China is also unlikely to be able to sustain an invasion of Australia - the lines of supply (as Dreed notes) would have to extend through many countries.  If you actually land in the north of Australia, you're basically walking into another Vietnam through the jungles, deserts, and vast amounts of nothing.  No easy supplies, no sustainable supply lines, easy evacuation of the population, and a military force specifically designed to defend in those conditions.  It would be very costly and drawn out.  Attempting to head further south exposes your supply lines further and maritime forces against land-based air and coastal naval forces will struggle.  China doesn't have the required naval power projection nor the capacity to bring any significant portion of their military here and support it.  Even the US, easily the strongest in these areas, would be at their limits.  The only real risk is nuclear.

So if you want to tear up a treaty that has historically benefitted the US the most just because of some disagreements, then that speaks volumes.


Phil, No one is suggesting we tear up our treaty.  We gain by it as you do and we are friends.  But it seems rather short sited to argue that the Chinese can't eventually do what the Japanese did?  WWII proved that you're not protected by yourself from invasion.  While getting some intelligence bases out of the treaty is good, let's face it.  One of the treaty's main purpose is to protect Australia from attack and invasion and to keep your trade routes open.  Your military in return acts as a force multiplier to us so that helps us in the Pacific and other places where you've fought WITH us. 

But the treaty does more than a common defense. It puts you in a strong position to not have to give up things when China applies pressure.   Without America as a backstop, you might start to make bad economic and trade deals with them that would not be so advantageous to you just to keep them happy.   

Farmer

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1021 on: March 03, 2017, 09:06:45 pm »

But you were, essentially, posing the threat of tearing up the treaty as part of your argument.

WWII didn't prove anything of the sort.  The Japanese bombed Darwin and a min-sub was caught in Sydney harbour.  They never had the capacity, or the intent, to invade Australia (the navy wanted to do it, but the army and government opposed the idea and no plans were actually created - they adopted a strategy of trying to isolate Australia to minimise the advantage that it gave to the US).  Australia was already heavily engaged in the war in Europe at the time (we had been in WWII for 2 years before the US).

By the end of WWII, Australia had the 4th largest air force in the world behind the US, Russia, and the UK - 25% of which was operating still in Europe and not the Pacific.  This did not include Australian personnel operating with the RAF.

The ANZUS treaty has almost zero impact on our trade relations with China - if anything, it probably presents a possibly negative aspect, but even then, I doubt it actually flows into anything tangible.  We have extremely good trade relations with China that are mutually advantageous.  America as a "backstop" (and it isn't, as I said), offers nothing on trade. 

ANZUS was created in 1951 as a response to growth of communism and due to pressure from Australia and New Zealand regarding a peace treaty with Japan (the US wanted to normalise relations with Japan and Australia and New Zealand were not keen).

Could China work its way south?  At the moment, no.  They literally do not have the capacity to do it.  They are working on the power projection, but like the Japanese army and government, they would readily identify the extreme difficulty of doing that today.

I think you are grossly over estimating the ability of China, under estimating the capacity of Australia and New Zealand (and other allies, local and elsewhere), and the dependence on the US - but most of all, you're lacking a serious understanding of the tactical implications of what you're suggesting as a possible threat.  Short of nuclear weapons (which wouldn't be a prelude to invasion), the threat is very, very limited for an attack of such a scale.
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Phil Brown

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1022 on: March 04, 2017, 08:53:30 am »

So what's the purpose of ANZUS today?

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1023 on: March 04, 2017, 09:15:10 am »

Why did Trump just send a carrier task force to sail  around the South China Sea if China is no threat?   What is the purpose of those islands that China just fortified militarily while our last President was asleep at the switch?  Are the American taxpayers wasting our money?  Should we pull back or bases and fleet and end ANZUS?   Why did the Japanese prime minister rush to play golf with Trump after trump suggested Japan defend itself?  Why did the European leaders s**t in the pants when trump originally said that NATO was obsolete?   Why do so many (europeans mainly) criticize us until they need us?

tom b

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1024 on: March 04, 2017, 10:23:56 am »

Why did Trump just send a carrier task force to sail  around the South China Sea if China is no threat?   What is the purpose of those islands that China just fortified militarily while our last President was asleep at the switch?  Are the American taxpayers wasting our money?  Should we pull back or bases and fleet and end ANZUS?   Why did the Japanese prime minister rush to play golf with Trump after trump suggested Japan defend itself?  Why did the European leaders s**t in the pants when trump originally said that NATO was obsolete?   Why do so many (europeans mainly) criticize us until they need us?

Honestly, you should get your facts right, the conflict in the South China Sea is not about military expansionism. It's about oil and gas.

https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/02/02/rex-tillerson-south-china-sea-exxon-russia-offshore-oil-gas
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Tom Brown

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1025 on: March 04, 2017, 10:32:00 am »

Honestly, you should get your facts right, the conflict in the South China Sea is not about military expansionism. It's about oil and gas.
https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/02/02/rex-tillerson-south-china-sea-exxon-russia-offshore-oil-gas

So what does ANZUS do?  What about oil and gas-explain your point.   If it's not about military expansionism, what's the purpose of those islands a thousand miles from the China border that they just militarized?

pegelli

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1026 on: March 04, 2017, 10:41:50 am »

Why do so many (europeans mainly) criticize us until they need us?
No need to see everything black and white nor is there any need to generalize. What's the problem with criticizing some aspects of US policy while agreeing on others. Think about the mantra Slobodan shows with every post: "When everybody thinks the same... nobody thinks", the world is lot more complex then simple black and white, "good" and "bad", we did away with that after the cold war was over.
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pieter, aka pegelli

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1027 on: March 04, 2017, 11:04:45 am »

... what's the purpose of those islands a thousand miles from the China border that they just militarized?

To claim the oil and gas resources under those (artificial) islands.

Cheers,
Bart
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tom b

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1028 on: March 04, 2017, 11:16:35 am »

So what does ANZUS do?  What about oil and gas-explain your point.   If it's not about military expansionism, what's the purpose of those islands a thousand miles from the China border that they just militarized?

China is in the South China Sea because there are billions of dollars worth of oil and gas there. Russia and America are eyeing it off too. Nothing to do with militarisation. More to do with territorial waters and exploitation of natural resources. Did you read the article?

Come on,

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Tom Brown

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1029 on: March 04, 2017, 12:25:26 pm »

It's foolish to believe that China's imperialistic designs will end with a few sandy islands and some nearby oil. When Obama stopped transit of u.s. Naval vessels from 2012 to 2015, China used that weakness as an opportunity to build up the islands. Xi promised Obama he would not militarize them. That was a lie.   Why do you think they will stop now?  Once the Chinese Navy outclasses American Navy in that area, who's going to stop them?

No one answered my question why ANZUS Treaty makes sense. What is it's purpose?

Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1030 on: March 04, 2017, 12:33:44 pm »

No need to see everything black and white nor is there any need to generalize. What's the problem with criticizing some aspects of US policy while agreeing on others. Think about the mantra Slobodan shows with every post: "When everybody thinks the same... nobody thinks", the world is lot more complex then simple black and white, "good" and "bad", we did away with that after the cold war was over.


You're right. The Cold War is Over. Europe is big enough and rich enough to defend itself. America should go home.  You deal with the Russians.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1031 on: March 04, 2017, 01:24:48 pm »


You're right. The Cold War is Over. Europe is big enough and rich enough to defend itself. America should go home.  You deal with the Russians.

Laughable if it were not that stupid to even consider.

It would not only wreck the US intelligence capacity, but also the US economy. Trade will collapse, also in the USA. Some 12% of all US exports are going to Europe, which would hit the revenue of many American companies and lead to unemployment, alternative goods will be more expensive, if at all available from other regions. Also, some 14% of US imports are from Europe, so more businesses and consumers will not have access to those products anymore. That's only trade economy. There is a shitload of additional consequences, but you would apparently not care since you already don't care about your economy.

Not even Trump would be so stupid, but some of his supporters seem to be brainwashed.

Cheers,
Bart
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kers

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1032 on: March 04, 2017, 01:32:51 pm »

We can ask Trump to join the discussion...
he is on the same level... and apparently has nothing else to do ..

Is it legal for a sitting President to be "wire tapping" a race for president prior to an election? Turned down by court earlier. A NEW LOW!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 4, 2017

No President can order a wiretap. Those restrictions were put in place to protect citizens from people like you. https://t.co/lEVscjkzSw
— Ben Rhodes (@brhodes) March 4, 2017
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pegelli

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1033 on: March 04, 2017, 01:37:32 pm »


You're right. The Cold War is Over. Europe is big enough and rich enough to defend itself. America should go home.  You deal with the Russians.
C'mon Alan, as Bart said, too stupid to consider. Trump is peddling back because he's starting to understand that some things he was against are actually in the US interest and now you're suggesting to throw away those gains?
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pieter, aka pegelli

pegelli

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1034 on: March 04, 2017, 01:43:07 pm »

We can ask Trump to join the discussion...
he is on the same level... and apparently has nothing else to do ..
He should put the same standard on himself as he's asking from the media, no tweets without sources or proof. But I guess that's asking too much  :P
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pieter, aka pegelli

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1035 on: March 04, 2017, 01:52:15 pm »

C'mon Alan, as Bart said, too stupid to consider. Trump is peddling back because he's starting to understand that some things he was against are actually in the US interest and now you're suggesting to throw away those gains?

And talking about peddling back, wasn't the new Muslim ban to be announced last Wednesday, or did I miss the announcement? Have the mines already been re-opened? And when does day-one end, as far as repealing the Affordable Care Act is concerned?

To name a few other gulps of Kool-Aid.

Ah, the President of the USA is too busy criticizing Arnold Schwarzenegger ... What a joke.

Cheers,
Bart
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pegelli

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1036 on: March 04, 2017, 02:20:13 pm »

Ah, the President of the USA is too busy criticizing Arnold Schwarzenegger ... What a joke.
And too busy making up smokescreens to hide his own campaign connections with Russia and the people who lied about that.
Only problem is that perjury is no joke, I don't think we've heard the last of that story.
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pieter, aka pegelli

Tim Lookingbill

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1037 on: March 04, 2017, 03:01:24 pm »

The main thing about Republicans having contact with Russians during the Presidential campaign and then lying about it or failing to mention it either to Congress or to Trump as cabinet appointees is if they did it knowingly defying Obama's ban against any government officials making contact with Russian diplomats as part of US sanctions against Russia.

This seems to get lost or not specifically addressed in the media coverage that makes it all look like a witch hunt, the same term accused by democrats against Republicans against Hillary about the Benghazi incident and the missing emails.

I don't know which is more serious an issue or considered a crime requiring justice be done? I'm not really that concerned about Trump's overall choices for cabinet appointees more than I am about the ones he chose that admitted making contact with Russian diplomats in deviance to Russian sanctions. Wish the media or Sean Spicer or any government official would make this more clear.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2017, 03:17:22 pm by Tim Lookingbill »
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Tim Lookingbill

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1038 on: March 04, 2017, 03:11:29 pm »


Quote from: Tim Lookingbill on March 02, 2017, 11:20:49 PM

    Oh good grief! Even camera calibration has gotten political.

    Several days ago I noticed both MSNBC and CNN showing Spencer with the most ashen coldest blue skin tone while Fox has his skin close to Xrite Color Checker Caucasian Lab numbers.

    Just a coincidence?

Quote
Not likely. In election TV advertising against Obama, the GOP made sure that Obama was represented to be blacker than he really was.

Actually Fox News consistently made Obama look very yellowish as if he had jaundice while CNN & MSNBC showed him with correct skin tone. I still don't know what it is about broadcast and camera technicians that seem to have difficulty managing consistent color on camera systems costing millions of dollars combined. I know most major broadcast cable channels show they employ a Colorist but don't know if they're responsible for maintaining skin tone appearance.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Trump II
« Reply #1039 on: March 04, 2017, 04:12:37 pm »

Laughable if it were not that stupid to even consider.

It would not only wreck the US intelligence capacity, but also the US economy. Trade will collapse, also in the USA. Some 12% of all US exports are going to Europe, which would hit the revenue of many American companies and lead to unemployment, alternative goods will be more expensive, if at all available from other regions. Also, some 14% of US imports are from Europe, so more businesses and consumers will not have access to those products anymore. That's only trade economy. There is a shitload of additional consequences, but you would apparently not care since you already don't care about your economy.

Not even Trump would be so stupid, but some of his supporters seem to be brainwashed.

Cheers,
Bart

Why would trade collapse?  It would continue as it is now.  All that changes is Europe would have to defend itself.  You would have to take more money you put into national health care and buy more tanks.  Then we could take the money we spend on NATO and pay for our health care.  Europeans always criticize America for not wanting to have national medical care.  Well, now we'll be able to as well.  Well, maybe the problem is Europe doesn't know how to protect itself since it's been depending on America since WWII.  Maybe it doesn't have the guts to do it and would rather Uncle America handle the real man's work and pay the bill.  Why else do you need America?  Do you think you're capable.


I do detect concern in your post that we will pull out.  You should pray Trump figures out how to make America economically strong again.  There's no longer the money for health care, growing the military, and being the world's policeman any longer.  After all the debt and deficits, if another 2008 crisis occurs, the American voter will demand Trump to pull back to save money because I think he really believes that we've been screwed for too long.    People are tired of the expense and shedding their children's blood in foreign wars.  They're tired of spending money for ingrates; who knock us, our system and president, whenever they get a chance.  The people who voted for Sanders are very similar in this thinking to the people who voted for Trump.  So it's not just Trump voters.  We're one recession away from bringing the troops home.   
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