Poll

Your prediction, not your vote.

Clinton
- 9 (69.2%)
Trump
- 4 (30.8%)
Hung college
- 0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 13


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Author Topic: Election predictions  (Read 67560 times)

jeremyrh

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #360 on: January 07, 2017, 11:45:35 am »

Anyone who looks for satisfaction by getting the government involved is nuts.

Says the man typing away on the Internet!!!
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N80

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #361 on: January 07, 2017, 12:11:47 pm »

Says the man typing away on the Internet!!!

Oh, that's right...Al Gore. He invented global warming too. What a guy. But the internet is actually a very good example. The government has a good idea. Roughs it out a little bit. Nice enough. Add private sector and free markets, voila!
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jeremyrh

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #362 on: January 07, 2017, 01:05:08 pm »

Oh, that's right...Al Gore. He invented global warming too. What a guy. But the internet is actually a very good example. The government has a good idea. Roughs it out a little bit. Nice enough. Add private sector and free markets, voila!

Utter garbage. Without initial development by the defence department in the US and other countries, and continued state support of related technology and infrastructure, your precious private sector wouldn't have done a thing.
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Rob C

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #363 on: January 07, 2017, 02:23:37 pm »

Utter garbage. Without initial development by the defence department in the US and other countries, and continued state support of related technology and infrastructure, your precious private sector wouldn't have done a thing.


That's an amazing statement.

I can't vouch for the States, but insofar as the UK was concerned, it was private enterprise that opened up the world to us, from the buccaneers through the slave traders, the 'baccy growers and the traders in spices, cottons and silk. It was the needs of industry that drove the railroads, the canals, the shipyards, almost everything that was the backbone of the Industrial Revolution. As ever, the state mostly just sat on its hands and tried to limit everything and create ever more laws with which to govern everybody else, forgetting often that it was also meant to include them, too. And at the top of everything sat the rich: the nobles, the merchants, the people whose vast wealth afforded the appetites that provided the commercial incentives to the rest. In Britain, we have pretty much turned the once rich into theme park operators, a consequence not of communism, but of socialism gone mad. So, instead of some people being rich by descent, we now have even more rich by playing football, which is obviously an improvement in anyone's view, because it introduces vulgarity into the delightful equation... And everybody loves the sports hero. He even helps one buy the right shoes, which one clearly can't do by oneself. Redistribution of wealth, down in the barn.

States are not in the business of being creative; being creative derives from trying to do something by means of which to make life better for oneself. That's something that every individual eventually has to do for himself, or remain in the same place he was dropped. The most a state will/can do is help, if it gets in enough money from those doing something for themselves. That's why communism always fails. Big Daddy does not know best. Big Daddy is mostly sterile.

Rob C

jeremyrh

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #364 on: January 07, 2017, 02:35:20 pm »


That's an amazing statement.

I can't vouch for the States, but insofar as the UK was concerned, it was private enterprise that opened up the world to us [...]

Big Daddy does not know best. Big Daddy is mostly sterile.

Rob C

I see the Daily Mail is in plentiful supply in your place of exile. History books not so much :-( 
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James Clark

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #365 on: January 07, 2017, 03:34:00 pm »

I see the Daily Mail is in plentiful supply in your place of exile. History books not so much :-(

I'm curious as to what fault you find in Rob's brief analysis.  Due to the control of things like Royal charters etc. in the colonial period, I'm not sure his example is entirely applicable to American economic development, but outside of that facet of central control, I think he's presenting a relatively fair picture
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James Clark

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #366 on: January 07, 2017, 03:36:38 pm »

You make some good points. The cliche' is true that democracy is the least efficient form of government. It is also true that the best form of government is a benevolent dictator. There was very little violence in Iraq before we ran Saddam out.....as long as you were a Bathist, of course. I think it is also important to understand that the US government CAN make us secure and safe. Totally. It is possible, if we are willing to give up the freedom necessary to do so. And we've been slowly but steadily doing that for the last 50-60 years.

And Rob, you are correct, I think, that man does not love his neighbor. He loves himself. And anyone who starts with the premise that mankind is basically good and can be perfected in goodness with proper governance, education and technology is both unobservant and deluded. All the governance, education and whiz bang technology have changed very little that matters throughout history. We still die mostly from infectious disease, poverty and war. We may have lowered the per capita numbers in the last 100 years but we have boosted the totals exponentially.

But again, the staggeringly amazing thing about the founders of the US is that they understood ALL of this and figured it into our constitution. The advent of MRI machines, global jet travel, cell phones, the internet and global markets do not change its relevance OR its flexibility. Those who think it is irrelevant (for whatever reason) must be charged with coming up with something better. If they think a giant bureaucracy is the answer then they are idiots. Period. The problem at hand is those who wish to wield power in both/all parties have found ways to abuse it. These include abuses of executive authority, abuses of agencies and departments as well as judicial abuses. All of these are far easier to use and misuse than the prescribed Constitutional processes that were intended. Those are hard and they often carry political penalties that our representative prefer not to risk. Sadly, we have no statesmen any longer. None.

In the US the answer is stunningly simple. Term limits. One survey a number of years ago showed that 96% of US citizens want term limits. We the people have probably never agreed on anything with such unity in our entire history. And yet nothing happens. This is proof enough that we no longer have even a facsimile of a representative government. And when you burden those who have no voice there will eventually be a last straw (no matter how comfortable you make them). Those most likely to snap are those who own guns. These folks are generally constitutionalists. And if you think this is some sort of paranoid delusions simply consider this: The citizens of the US own half a billion guns. Thats more than all of the rest of the people in all other countries AND their militaries COMBINED. And these people generally also know how to use them. Relevant? I don't know.

Emphasis is mine of course.  I think this is a fascinating assertion.  I'm in the move right now and a phone isn't enough to reply with, but I think you've keyed on a fundamental point of contention.
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Rob C

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #367 on: January 07, 2017, 05:53:27 pm »

I see the Daily Mail is in plentiful supply in your place of exile. History books not so much :-(


I don't have your familiarity with it - I never buy it.

In fact, the last British newspaper that I remember buying was some years ago - The Sunday Times, but I gave that up too, in the end, after many years of Winner, AA Gill and even Clarkson, because the ones printed in Spain had terrible ink problems that soiled everything that one touched. They even stained white plastic chairs that are used on the terrace, and, worst of all, was the grim fact that the darned thing (the newspaper) cost € 5 when it cost £ 1 in the UK. AND you didn't get the proper magazines, either, just a single, compendium version.

I read the local Spanish press if I'm having a coffee somewhere, and get an idea of what's what, but only an idea. And that's all the press gets, too.

Rob C

Rob C

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #368 on: January 07, 2017, 05:56:20 pm »

James,

"Emphasis is mine of course.  I think this is a fascinating assertion.  I'm in the move right now and a phone isn't enough to reply with, but I think you've keyed on a fundamental point of contention."

Indeed, and it's pretty fundamental to everything that happens; I do hope that it gets developed within LuLa because it could provide some interesting chat.

Rob C

JoeKitchen

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #369 on: January 07, 2017, 08:52:08 pm »

Utter garbage. Without initial development by the defence department in the US and other countries, and continued state support of related technology and infrastructure, your precious private sector wouldn't have done a thing.

Your knowledge on this subject is very inaccurate. 

To look at the example of the Internet, neither the government nor anyone working for the government invented it.  This was pioneered by two computer scientists in the 1960s, who also happened to be college professors.  The governments main involvement with the Internet did not occur until the Vietnam War, and the primary purpose was to utilize an unknown technology to send information that had very little chance of being intercepted since it was unknown. 

However, during the war departments use of the Internet, very little, if any, advancement took place.  It was not until the private sector took over in the 80s that the Internet began to expand and people other then those at the War Department started to learn about it. 

Insofar as the infrastructure, the Internet in the beginning utilized the phone system, which was built and maintained by private business.  There could be argument that the government played a roll here since Ma Bell was a government entity, however that is not exactly true since Ma Bell was never a government entity (another common misconception). 

When the telephone was initially invented, a few people in the business realized that competing telephone companies in the same locale would produce an ungodly amount of telephone wires, that would be unsafe, inefficient and non-aesthetic.  So, being the smart business men they were, they realized if they unite, they could approach congress and convince the government that a centralized (monopoly) communication company would be much better for the American people, and, if congress bit, become incredibly rich.  Congress of course bit, and Ma Bell was born, albeit a highly regulated private monopoly. 

(Now for the nay sayers who insist monopolies are un-american and congress would never allow such a thing, almost all pro sports in the country are monopolies.  The NBA is the only company that provides professional basketball entertainment, the NFL is the only company that ... so monopolies are more common in the USA then one might realize.) 

Now the Internet relies on cable wiring, another privately maintained infrastructure, which is my area is controlled by Comcast, and fiberoptics, privately maintained as well, which in my area is controlled by Verizon. 

All businesses and major institutions behave in this manner.  For the most part, government causes stagnation and private sector performance institutes growth and efficiency. 

Another great example is the USPS vs. UPS & FedEx.  It is no secret that the USPS is in deep trouble, and it is not that the system could not be improved, it very much can.  However, for it to be improved would mean more centralization and automation, which will kill jobs, initially at least.  Since any change in the USPS needs to be approved by Congress first, nothing is happening, because no Dem or Rep wants to be known as someone that killed 1000s of post office jobs. 

Another example, look how well the air industry flourished after it was deregulated. 

Another example, the railroad was built by private industry as well.  Sure, the government did provide loads for its expansion in the 1860s.  However, expanding the railroads helped the North immensely defeat the South, so there was a great incentive to provide those loans.  In the end though, the amount of shipment fees the railroad made from Standard Oil in the tail end of the 1800s was far in excess of any amount loaned by the Government, which means the rails would have been built regardless. 

Retouching is super boring and I need to listen to something.  Most of the time it is historical documentaries, which are interesting enough to break the silence but not so interesting to distract myself to a great degree.  PBS's 6 two-hour episode special on the Civil War and 8 two-hour episode special of the American West are really good ones. 
« Last Edit: January 07, 2017, 09:07:44 pm by JoeKitchen »
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jeremyrh

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #370 on: January 08, 2017, 05:08:38 am »

Retouching is super boring and I need to listen to something. 
I recommend you stick to music or something that will not lead you to make a fool of yourself in public. In the meantime, here is a handy timeline for you to refer to:
http://www.livescience.com/20727-internet-history.html
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #371 on: January 08, 2017, 07:51:09 am »

I recommend you stick to music or something that will not lead you to make a fool of yourself in public. In the meantime, here is a handy timeline for you to refer to:
http://www.livescience.com/20727-internet-history.html

To be honest, your link kind of backs up my statement. 

It states that the Internet was invented in the 60s by professors working together. 

1968: Beranek and Newman, Inc. (BBN) unveils the final version of the Interface Message Processor (IMP) specifications. BBN wins ARPANET contract.  (I am pretty sure ", Inc." means private business just took over.)

It then states, 1974: The first Internet Service Provider (ISP) is born with the introduction of a commercial version of ARPANET, known as Telenet. 

Then in 1987: The number of hosts on the Internet exceeds 20,000. Cisco ships its first router. 

20K is pretty low and can be easily filled by academics and the like, but here we have a private company, Cisco, making the internet available for public consumption. 

However, even though shipment of commercial and consumer routers began in 1987, it was not until 1989: World.std.com becomes the first commercial provider of dial-up access to the Internet.

(Note the phrase dial-up, aka phone lines.  Once again, my point is shown that private business laid the infrastructure for the Internet to run on since the phone lines were being used.  It is even stated in your link, 1934: Belgian information expert named Paul Otlet imagined a “Radiated Library” that would use technology of the day — the telephone and radio (all private enterprises) — to create something very much like the Internet.) 

HTML & WWW is invented and introduced in 1990 and 1991 by Tim Berners-Lee at CERN, a public organization, but that does not mean anyone in the private sector could not have done it either. 

And then the Internet really starts to grow, and the rest of your timeline is almost all private business and entities jumping on board.

So your link does nothing to really prove your original point, that the government created, nurtured and built the infrastructure for the Internet.  You could argue that since Leonard Kleinrock worked at UCSB, and since the U.C. schools are public, then the Internet was created by government. 

However, that would be a stretch to say the least. 

Also, no mention of the War Department in the entire timeline, something else you referenced. 
« Last Edit: January 08, 2017, 08:09:39 am by JoeKitchen »
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jeremyrh

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #372 on: January 08, 2017, 11:09:15 am »

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jeremyrh

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #373 on: January 08, 2017, 11:20:16 am »

I'm curious as to what fault you find in Rob's brief analysis.  Due to the control of things like Royal charters etc. in the colonial period, I'm not sure his example is entirely applicable to American economic development, but outside of that facet of central control, I think he's presenting a relatively fair picture

Where to begin, really? In historical times the trade referred to by Rob was possible in the context of an Empire secured by the state. Innovation of all sorts was motivated by the needs of the navy (clocks, for example).

Much the same can be said of the US, with a different time scale, and different spheres of influence. Perhaps the most modern example of "new frontiers" is NASA.
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JoeKitchen

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #374 on: January 08, 2017, 11:36:05 am »

Where to begin, really? In historical times the trade referred to by Rob was possible in the context of an Empire secured by the state. Innovation of all sorts was motivated by the needs of the navy (clocks, for example).

Much the same can be said of the US, with a different time scale, and different spheres of influence. Perhaps the most modern example of "new frontiers" is NASA.

True, I will agree that many innovations were inspired by war efforts throughout history.  Here, though, the link is not nearly as strong, IMO. 

With that said, I would sacrifice a little speed in the advancement of technologies for greater peace. 
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Rob C

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #375 on: January 09, 2017, 10:29:32 am »

True, I will agree that many innovations were inspired by war efforts throughout history.  Here, though, the link is not nearly as strong, IMO. 

With that said, I would sacrifice a little speed in the advancement of technologies for greater peace.

There's no money in it.

Rob

tom b

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #376 on: January 09, 2017, 04:04:26 pm »

There's no money in it.

Rob

Sorry Rob, there's heaps of money in it. Just look at travel to safe places.

"WTTC’s latest annual research, in conjunction with our partner Oxford Economics, shows Travel & Tourism’s contribution to world GDP grew for the sixth consecutive year in 2015, rising to a total of 9.8% of world GDP (US$7.2 trillion). The sector now supports 284 million people in employment – that’s 1 in 11 jobs on the planet."

Cheers,

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mecrox

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #377 on: January 10, 2017, 08:45:49 am »

Sorry Rob, there's heaps of money in it. Just look at travel to safe places.

"WTTC’s latest annual research, in conjunction with our partner Oxford Economics, shows Travel & Tourism’s contribution to world GDP grew for the sixth consecutive year in 2015, rising to a total of 9.8% of world GDP (US$7.2 trillion). The sector now supports 284 million people in employment – that’s 1 in 11 jobs on the planet."

Cheers,

That's very interesting information. I had no idea travel and tourism were so significant. Even so, it is hard not to think that trade and war have mostly been two sides of the same coin, with war often being a way of establishing trading advantages by other means. I think here of the East India Company, probably the most powerful corporation there has ever been. In its heyday it traded enormous riches and was enormously violent at the same time.
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Rob C

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #378 on: January 10, 2017, 10:22:54 am »

Sorry Rob, there's heaps of money in it. Just look at travel to safe places.

"WTTC’s latest annual research, in conjunction with our partner Oxford Economics, shows Travel & Tourism’s contribution to world GDP grew for the sixth consecutive year in 2015, rising to a total of 9.8% of world GDP (US$7.2 trillion). The sector now supports 284 million people in employment – that’s 1 in 11 jobs on the planet."

Cheers,


That's a stretch beyond bungie!

You must differentiate between countries that are peopled by relatively sane people and those that are not.

"True, I will agree that many innovations were inspired by war efforts throughout history." ....  Joe K.

The topìc is innovations, not security which depends little on innovation and a helluva lot on goodwill, moles and clever, joined-up intelligence. It's a question of money spent on those concerns, not innovations per se.

Tourism is certainly huge, too bloody huge and it's a prime cause of global warming, air pollution, exhaustion of water supplies (even here in Mallorca), overflowing sewerage systems (not only sailors are concerned about the direction of the wind), hiked prices and a magnification of the massive disparity between those big groups that own hotel chains, the employees and also the lesser competition being hurt ever more by "all-inclusives" that also suck the life out of small bars and restaurants. The 'benefits' of tourism are being spread more thickly over ever fewer people.

Tourism kills local culture and, in its place, prompts a mocking, ersatz version of the real thing. Even churches and religion are abused in the march to making a dime and milking the travelling goat. Tourism is one of the most dangerous, corrosive influences that any small place can experience. Yes, some may well grow very rich, and they do, but at what price? I hear it all the time here, the epitome of tourist-land: "our kids just want us to buy them BMWs and not make them do any work..." Do you think that does no harm to a broader society than just the rick kids? Where drug use was an unknown, that is no longer the case, I'm afraid; the shit gets learned very quickly, as easily as are old morals discarded.

And I haven't even touched on the problems of hiked prices in every shop; the two-prices system is very real, and very prevalent. I know by being a regular diner at certain places.

The thing is, arguments for the greater glory of governance, socialism and its benefits are always pitched too broadly: yes, insofar as the health safety nets, great, I think every country should strive to provide that basic insurance/assurance to every one of its citizens. I do not, however, believe for a second that it, socialism, or even its political opposites do anything particularly wonderful to promote business. Rather do they often appear to do the opposite, as in Brexit, where people who once campaigned to stay within the strength of a broader union and guaranteed market now, blandly, argue that they should get out as fiercely as they can, cutting all ties in the process. Our current, benign leader is one such shining example. The one before her, a much more brilliant guy, made the fatal mistake of regarding his public too highly: he paid by falling on his sword. Instead, he should have thought of Barnum before making any offers that could go so terribly wrong. Geez, even poor old Obama came over and tried to tell it like it is, at least regarding negotiating trade deals with the States, the supposed saviour to replace the European suicide pact we have just made and are about to sign - God fobid.

Buy hey, we live in the post-truth, virtual games society now, so who gives a damn anymore, it'll all turn out okay again when we take off the headsets. Right.

Rob
« Last Edit: January 10, 2017, 10:28:01 am by Rob C »
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Jim Pascoe

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Re: Election predictions
« Reply #379 on: January 12, 2017, 08:06:20 am »



The problem, of course, is Man: he doesn't love his neighbour, not in the least.

Rob

I've only just seen this thread and not read it all - but I find the above statement rather sad.  I appreciate it's a generalisation but so untrue in many cases.  What I see is that people are fearful that others will take what they have - either their money/possessions/land or their lives.  Too much suspicion.  Then there are the greedy power-hungry people who will sow the seeds of distrust among others and lead them to hatred and fear.  I do love my neighbours (mostly) and I'm an un-suspicious sort of character.  Much more relaxing to be that way.

Man wants to love his neighbour - if you don't, perhaps you should try.

This sounds a bit religious doesn't it - and to think I'm an atheist...... :D

Jim
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