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Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 342876 times)

drmike

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #400 on: July 03, 2016, 05:31:55 am »

Weren't they all predictions?

No, they weren't. The 350 million per day could be described as a flat out lie, the 'fact' that Turkey was joining the EU was a flat out lie. They did lie but the Remain were shroud waving a fair bit which was silly and did no good. I wonder how many minds were swayed by the campaigns at all. I suspect the red tops had a big impact but beyond that I do wonder.
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Manoli

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #401 on: July 03, 2016, 05:35:36 am »

Professor Michael Dougan, on misrepresentation and outright deception of the Leave campaign, in what he calls 'one of the most dishonest political campaigns the UK has ever seen.

20 minutes that may open your eyes and give cause for reflection.

https://youtu.be/0dosmKwrAbI
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Manoli

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #402 on: July 03, 2016, 06:03:26 am »

The important point is that nothing in Article 50 provides that negotiations must wait until we leave: quite the contrary.

Contrary ?

Equally, there is nothing in Article 50 that says the EU is under any obligation to negotiate with a country prior to receiving notice under Art50. Only proviso is that legal notice must be given in accordance with the departing state's constitutional requirements.

Given that Parliament has yet to make a final decision, and that at this moment in time, there are constitutional issues to be resolved - the UK parliament must first resolve these 'inconsistencies' (Scotland and Northern Ireland) before doing so. Notice under Article 50 won't be issued anytime soon - even 'Brexit means Brexit' Theresa May has conceded that any future administration is unlikely to be in a position to do so before the end of the year at the earliest, more probably 2017 if not later. The UK has consistently stated that the timing is within their discretion and their discretion alone. So, for the time being, it's business as usual.

Under Article 50 it is for the other 27 countries to decide, by majority vote and without British participation, the terms of Britain’s exit. The article sets a two-year deadline for this process, which can be extended only by unanimous agreement of all 27 countries. If no deal is agreed in that time, Britain would cease to be an EU member and revert to trading with the EU on normal World Trade Organisation rules.

Furthermore, exit negotiations are distinct and separate from trade negotiations. The two can run in parallel but there is no necessity or obligation on either side to commence a trade discussion before proper notice is tendered. Delaying notice under Art50 won't help.

Add to the above the political crisis triggered by the referendum, and the growing likelihood of further political upheaval, let alone the possibility of a general election - it's not too hard to understand the EU's hesitation in moving forward until the UK has resolved these and is in a position to formally tender notice.

The biggest threat to our Parliamentary democracy isn't the EU, but the current lack of a credible opposition and key members of the Government that so far seems to place personal ambition above the national interest.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #403 on: July 03, 2016, 07:04:52 am »

20 minutes that may open your eyes and give cause for reflection.

https://youtu.be/0dosmKwrAbI

Thank you very much for that link.
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Robert

AreBee

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #404 on: July 03, 2016, 07:11:27 am »

Bart,

Quote
...the people were lied to by your own politicians about the facts...

In what way(s) does this differ from other referenda?



Mike,

Quote
The 350 million per day could be described as a flat out lie...

It could be described as the flat out truth.

When asked what you earn, is the value you provide in your response gross or net?



Manoli,

Quote
...one of the most dishonest political campaigns the UK has ever seen.

I wonder what is considered the most dishonest political campaign?
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drmike

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #405 on: July 03, 2016, 07:28:31 am »


Mike,

It could be described as the flat out truth.

When asked what you earn, is the value you provide in your response gross or net?


I heard that argument as well and it is a sensible response. However, when asked how much I could spend on a new car I would quote an amount after deductions - for example. At best they were misleading and and how long did it take for them to retract the suggestion that they have 350 million a day for the NHS? It was basically a lie.
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pegelli

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #406 on: July 03, 2016, 07:46:59 am »

Mike,

It could be described as the flat out truth.

When asked what you earn, is the value you provide in your response gross or net?
That's BS! They never said they "earned" 350 million, they said they would give 350 million to the IHS.

My counter-question would be: If somebody asks you how much pocket money you give your kids, do you quote the number before or after accounting for the income tax you paid on it  ;)
« Last Edit: July 03, 2016, 08:44:48 am by pegelli »
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pieter, aka pegelli

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #407 on: July 03, 2016, 08:40:32 am »

Professor Michael Dougan, on misrepresentation and outright deception of the Leave campaign, in what he calls 'one of the most dishonest political campaigns the UK has ever seen.

20 minutes that may open your eyes and give cause for reflection.

https://youtu.be/0dosmKwrAbI

Hi,

An excellent analysis, to which one might add an astonishment about the complete failure of the Remain campaign to expose the outright lies and un-achievable promises by the Exit campaign.

As he says, it has left the UK in a constitutional crisis, which essentially is a Political crisis that requires a solution from Government and Parliament. We've had enough spreading of FUD, and it already has caused a lot of damage. Credit ratings for the UK have been lowered, and the exchange rate of the GBP versus the Euro and versus the USD has dropped, making everything that is a form of loan, and imported goods, more expensive (especially troublesome because the UK already has a trade deficit, more imports than exports).

Or as he typified it, not in the legal sense, but morally it is criminally irresponsible behavior (of both sides). On the positive side, it also exposed some underlying social problems that formed a fertile soil for populist propaganda.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: July 03, 2016, 09:28:24 am by BartvanderWolf »
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Manoli

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #408 on: July 03, 2016, 08:54:16 am »

I wonder what is considered the most dishonest political campaign?

Not sure, Rob, but Dougan is a professor of consitutional law and they're his words so perhaps best that he answer your question.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #409 on: July 03, 2016, 09:01:23 am »

Bart,

In what way(s) does this differ from other referenda?

At least in two ways, Rob. First of all, Politicians usually do not lie, but they just do not tell the whole truth. Liars can be exposed, but partial truths are still truths. Second, the Remain campaign totally failed to expose the outright factual lies that were told. Incompetent at best.

This was a display of politics at it's worst, on both sides of the issue.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: July 03, 2016, 09:30:52 am by BartvanderWolf »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #410 on: July 03, 2016, 09:13:07 am »

... Incompetent at best....

What, all those "highly educated" people?  ;)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #411 on: July 03, 2016, 09:20:10 am »

What, all those "highly educated" people?  ;)

Which goes to show, education is not a guarantee for competence.

Cheers,
Bart
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #412 on: July 03, 2016, 09:23:16 am »

.. the 'fact' that Turkey was joining the EU was a flat out lie...

How so? Ever since 1989, "eventual membership as the goal" has been frequently reaffirmed by the EU. The latest phase of the negotiations has just been opened on June 30th.

drmike

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #413 on: July 03, 2016, 09:27:47 am »

You are correct but it was presented as being something that was imminent and as I recall blamed on Germany.

I believe Turkey has achieved one of the 35 requirements in that time. I think that claim and Farage's photograph of the immigrants were part and parcel of the same claim.

As we are a photography forum Best photo and it's quite an interesting collection of photographs and commentary in its own right.

Mike
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AreBee

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #414 on: July 03, 2016, 09:38:58 am »

Mike,

Quote
I heard that argument as well and it is a sensible response.

Pieter doesn't seem to think so.

Quote
At best they were misleading... It was basically a lie.



Did 'they' mislead you, or did you mislead yourself?

Which part in the above image is a lie?



Pieter,

Quote
That's BS!... they said they would give 350 million to the [N]HS.



That is not stated above.



Bart,

Quote
...Politicians usually do not lie, but they just do not tell the whole truth.



Is the above image not an example of exactly that?
« Last Edit: July 03, 2016, 09:46:12 am by Rob B. »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #415 on: July 03, 2016, 09:39:43 am »

How so? Ever since 1989, "eventual membership as the goal" has been frequently reaffirmed by the EU. The latest phase of the negotiations has just been opened on June 30th.

Slobodan,

Apparently it requires a unanimous agreement between all member states (which could have included the UK, so I sorry they decided* to leave), and constitutional ratification of such by all national parliaments.

*) Formally nothing changes if no formal request to leave is filed, since this was an advisory Referendum it could be ignored, government steps down, and a new government picks up the pieces for a fresh start rebuilding confidence.

And given the increasingly undemocratic behavior of the current leadership of Turkey, it would at best take some 20 years before that changes for the better. Then there are still some hurdles to be overcome, but my crystal ball fogs up when it comes to such long term vision.

Cheers,
Bart
« Last Edit: July 03, 2016, 09:47:46 am by BartvanderWolf »
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pegelli

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #416 on: July 03, 2016, 09:46:43 am »

Which part in the above image is a lie?
The part that says "We send the EU 350 million pound a week"

Like I said, income can sometimes be talked about "gross" (if you want to impress other people), expenses are not. So this is an outright lie. 

That is not stated above.

And I'm not talking about the bus, I'm talking about this poster:
« Last Edit: July 03, 2016, 09:57:02 am by pegelli »
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pieter, aka pegelli

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #417 on: July 03, 2016, 09:47:16 am »

Short-termism.

Public ompanies are often blamed for not seeing past the next quarterly report. Politicians past the next elections.

Nations, however, seem to have a much longer collective memory, going back millennia, but also looking forward much longer than 10-15 years (which seems to be the current estimate for Turkey and the blink of the eye in historic terms).

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #418 on: July 03, 2016, 09:55:41 am »

The part that says "We send the EU 350 million pound a week"

... So this is an outright lie. 

Ok, so which number is the truth then? 349? 299?

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #419 on: July 03, 2016, 10:03:10 am »

Ok, so which number is the truth then? 349? 299?

Something in the order of 150 is what I've heard, and it's not totally squandered (although improvements are possible), some (or a perhaps a lot) already gets back to the UK as subsidies, and there is a UK rebate of 66% that needs to be factored in in a complicated calculation afterwards, so 350 definitely would not become available for the NHS (and for all the other causes that that full amount was also promised to as a solution). Some of the contributions are for money that the UK would otherwise have to spend itself, e.g. development aid.

Cheers,
Bart

P.S. Assuming these numbers are correct:
The average net contribution of the UK in 2007-2013 was: EUR -4,872 million anually (?) (so there was more money coming back than it cost), so i agree it's complicated.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2016, 10:28:08 am by BartvanderWolf »
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