I think the actual cost per sensor would be in the 1K to 1.5K range, but the actual cost of the sensor is such a small part of the total equation I feel it gets a bit blown out of proportion.
A few more things to consider for now:
1. Phase One is the only company actually shipping this chip, so for now they can set the price point anywhere they want. I don't think the blad version has shipped, please correct me if I have that wrong, and I have not even seen any early ship reviews from the 645z. It was supposed to be shipping NOW, so time will tell.
2. I believe that Phase One's entire market strategy is setup around smaller volumes, thus higher unit prices. They have a smaller infrastructure than Pentax/Ricoh, or Nikon/Canon. Their current go to market as pretty anyone who has dealt with them knows, is use our dealer channel, both for prices, and support. You can't pick up the phone and call Phase One and get a quote very easy. You also don't go into your local camera store for a price. If I have learned anything since 2008 it's pick a dealer, and use them for your entry point for everything. If Phase One is driven to a lower pricing model by huge Pentax 645z sales, then so be it, they will react with pricing. Right now it's clear that Phase One is attempting to clear the channel of the 40MP chips with for them aggressive pricing. If the 645z starts leaving a lot of IQ250's on the shelves, then Phase One will either make the decision to sell at a lower price or pull the product. They have a pretty steep R&D curve to re-coop so I don't think they will pull the product.
3. Ask yourself, where are the IQ250's going? I have not seen a lot of posts from new owners on this site or others, where as, the number of posts from credo 40 and IQ140 users has increased. I am sure they are selling them, but the total volume only Phase One knows. The tech camera market, which should be at least 1/4 or 1/5 of MF back users have not embraced the 250 yet, again at least no one is talking if they have.
4. Don't' forget Silverfleet's ownership of Phase One. They are in this to make money so I am sure they are monitoring sales of backs.
5. Lastly, it's small market. You can count the number of authorized Phase One (ACTIVE) dealers in the U.S. on one hand max 2. (CI, DT and Bear are the ones that come to mind, but I am sure there are others). That's the marketing model that Phase One is working with. I also feel that Phase may be selling a lot of product to the Asian markets, mainly China. I know that China has recently been very active with Schneider glass, in the 100 and 120mm range, so they are more than likely making a lot of back purchases also. These are sales that only Phase One knows and accounts for.
Paul