Haven't you see this happening before Ellis? …Are "Moody's" able to judge imaging consumers needs better than Sony? …Does Moody's (do we?) knows the "end of plan" or how far the progress of it has gone from start? …who would believe it only a month ago? (!!!) …Sony entering the MF market! I don't believe it's as simple as it looks… I don't think of them as so naive to have invested some large amount of money only to develop a sensor for some ultra expensive backs that less than a hundred people will annually buy... ...do you? I think we "see the tree and miss the forest" here...
If I understood correctly, your point seems to be that the Sony small-MF sensor was developped because Sony intends to scale down its technology to FF sensors... but you also seem to doubt the possibility of Sony being interested/able in scaling up smaller sensor technology to larger ones.
I agree that Sony semi-conductor did probably not bother to develop this small-MF sensor for P1/Hassy alone, but my belief is simply that they have other orders for this sensor from other players having committed larger volumes. This could be Pentax, Sony camera, Nikon, Samsung,... or Hassy has decided to sell it at 645D prices...
I also believe that higher mp FF sensors are around the corner, irrelevant of whether they are a simple scale up of the D7100/D5300 or completely new designs. They may be Sony, Toshiba, Nikon designs... and will be used in a D4x, D800x,...
Cheers,
Bernard