Luminous Landscape Forum
Equipment & Techniques => Cameras, Lenses and Shooting gear => Topic started by: Dan Wells on November 10, 2008, 05:53:51 pm
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Nikon has a big press conference scheduled for Nov. 20, and I'm pretty darned sure, both from the amount of chatter and from the fact that all their competitors have high-resolution bodies, we'll see something with more than 12 MP from them on that date. Apart from the ridiculous (like a high-resolution Coolpix), there are three options (four if you count the unlikely high-resolution non-full-frame D300 variant). We could see a D700x that competes with the Alpha 900 and the 5DmkII, a D3x that goes head to head with the 1Ds mk III, or something completely different. Rumors have included everything from the trivially easy (a D700 body with the Sony Alpha 900 sensor in it) up to the never before tried (a medium-format body with electronic viewfinders only (the primary finder would probably be a supersize rear LCD - something approaching 5 inches and 1024x768 resolution)). So, what do folks think it'll be, and what do you want to see?
Personally, I'd love to see Nikon go medium format - the all-electronic (or electronic plus optical rangefinder, but non-SLR) design actually has a lot of appeal, because it could be the size of a Mamiya 7, which is a wonderful field landscape camera that never made the transition to digital. It could shoot like a Mamiya 7 when needed, marvelously easy to handhold, yet turn into a camera with 4x5 versatility when plunked down on a tripod with a tilt/shift lens (or a tilt/shift adapter like Hasselblad makes) on it. The LCD would actually be big enough to judge the effect of camera movements (plus it would be easy to magnify whatever area you're concerned about). If it used a sensor of the smallest "medium format" size - 33x44 mm -and the pixel pitch of the D300, it would be a 48 mp camera! If Nikon released this as an $8000 body, the entire medium format market would run for cover. It would also take a lot of the 1Ds market away from Canon, although not all of it, because I'm guessing this camera would be SLOW (not by medium-format standards, but 1-2 FPS, not the 3-5 of the Canons). Since the viewfinder is electronic, it could use zoom lenses as an option, which are a real pain with optical rangefinders!
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I would like to believe in MX, but I don't think that Nikon would risk introducing MX without also introducing a high MP FX camera.
An EVF based MX seems unlikely to me considering the vast array of validation done by Nikon. I doubt such a camera would pass their cold shooting and battery tests.
So I vote for a double announcement with a D3x and SLR type MX.
Cheers,
Bernard
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Hello
My vote is for the D3X, well just a guess!
it looks like Nikon currently has a nice set up, there is a new product in every category except for a high MP DSLR.
also maybe not a surprise to see a D3s which will be a D3 with the added dust shaker, Deeper buffer and the general improvements we've seen since it's introduction.
just speculations on my end, kinda fun
we'll see in 10 days
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D3s is an interesting idea - I could certainly see it, catching up in places where the D700 is actually ahead (I hope e D3s isn't all we get). I wonder if it would add a video mode - the D3 has the relatively low resolution and very fast pipelines that would be perfect for video (if really well implemented, look out RED).
-Dan
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I am not sure about how likely this is but how about a FF rangefinder? This does not rule out any other option but this could definitely be something for Nikon to work on. From the technological standpoint it is much closer to what they already have than any MF system.
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I think they will do the MX thing - they must be tired of of the bagging they're getting from people with high rez mobile phones..
Seriously, I think there's room in the market for a camera that has medium format rez with 35mm control, to date the medium format cameras I've tried impress me with the image quality, but not ergonomics and function.
Both Nikon and Canon could easily make a better medium format IMHO.
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I thought the "something big" announcement of MX format was widely believed to be coming in January at WPPI convention. My guess is that if there's a big announcement this month it will either be D3x or D700x. I'm not sure which it will be, because I think it depends on the sensor. I don't think the Sony 24mp chip is good enough to put in a D3x. So my prediction is that we'll either get a D3x with a high-res version of the D3 sensor, or a D700x with a Nikon-tweaked version of the Sony sensor.
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It will be a format that mimic's the Micro 4/3rds format of small interchangable lens platforms, or indeed directly use the MFT sensor size and lens mount.
Steve
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NX3, Coolpix, software upgrades, and maybe a D300s with movie mode added.
Canon isn't shipping the 5DII to retailers in the United States until December and Nikon isn't going to match that anyway, nobody sells many pro level cameras just before or just after Christmas; that's a consumer buying period. Nikon does need to announce a higher MP DSLR before they lose credibility as a full line camera company -- it will be a larger pro body that sells for more because they're going to reset the $4500 price point for their top end DSLR since the D3 is now slipping in price thanks in part to the D700.
For Nikon the sensor they use is the critical thing, and after they've milked the pros and wealthier enthusiasts then they will put that same sensor in a smaller and more affordable body (just as they did with the D3 sensor being used in the D700, and in about the same time frame). I think the reason Nikon hasn't announced something already is that they're not using the Sony sensor; a video mode would also slow down the release date if it wasn't included in the original design and they now feel they have to have it, which is debatable. I'm sure Nikon is moving as fast as they can to avoid losing out to Canon and Sony on this high MP DSLR front, but here in the United States I can't buy either of those other brand's offerings yet, so I think Nikon is using every minute they have available before the 5DII and A900 are actually available to tweak their newest flagship DSLR and won't actually make an announcement until December.
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For Nikon the sensor they use is the critical thing, and after they've milked the pros and wealthier enthusiasts then they will put that same sensor in a smaller and more affordable body (just as they did with the D3 sensor being used in the D700, and in about the same time frame). I think the reason Nikon hasn't announced something already is that they're not using the Sony sensor; a video mode would also slow down the release date if it wasn't included in the original design and they now feel they have to have it, which is debatable. I'm sure Nikon is moving as fast as they can to avoid losing out to Canon and Sony on this high MP DSLR front, but here in the United States I can't buy either of those other brand's offerings yet, so I think Nikon is using every minute they have available before the 5DII and A900 are actually available to tweak their newest flagship DSLR and won't actually make an announcement until December.
Agreed on the general direction, but I don't think it is possible for Nikon to tweak much a few weekd before an announcement. That is just not the way such products are designed.
Cheers,
Bernard
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...I don't think it is possible for Nikon to tweak much a few weekd before an announcement. That is just not the way such products are designed.
I agree, but any major changes to the original design (if there were any) were probably implemented months ago when Nikon probably realized that the 5DII would have video capability. Note that the D90 already has video capability and Nikon may have made design decisions about a new flagship at that time but needed to bring engineering resources over from the D90 to complete its implementation. It could be (yes, this is a highly speculative thread, so it's all "could be", "what if", etc) that shoehorning this into the new camera has taken more time and delayed the announcement, probably last minute tweaks are firmware and software related.
Why not announce a new flagship on November 20? I have two reasons for making my counterintuitive prediction: first is that Nikon doesn't have to (as I already wrote), second is that someone with insider information at DPR predicted middle of December for this latest flagship development. Naturally, I could well be wrong.
Coming back to that really "big" thing that was supposed to be announce back in October, I suspect it's MX and Nikon has radically changed course due to the economy, because they don't want to undermine their loyal user base that is patiently waiting for lens updates and a high MP DSLR, because the Leica S2 is too expensive to be a threat to their plans, and because their real competition is Canon and they are watching them to make sure they don't get outdone by a counter announcement. With the hard times we are experiencing and that will only get worse next year, I think Canon and Nikon are going to be putting the screws on everybody, including Hasselblad and Mamiya -- Canon and Nikon plan on coming out of the recession (probably early 2010) with fewer competitors.
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My wishful thinking:
A high MP full frame DSLR to counteract the Sony and Canon line-up.
As D90 can record video, I think that any new model will have at least that, hopefully with better quality than the paltry MJPEG and with more recording options than the upcoming 5DMk2 (i.e. 24/25/30 fps, locked AE exposure...).
I don't think that at this stage, Canon will enable pro level video features in the firmware for the 5Dmk2. Nikon - as opposed to Canon, Sony, Panasonic doesn't have a video camera division to protect and nothing can stop them to release a camera with serious video recording capabilities.
Any announcement will dampen the enthusiasm around the 5DMk2 release and will put off a lot of the potential buyers, who will be happy to wait a few months for a camera at least as good if not better than what's on offer now.
Canon will have to be a bit less sleepy, more in tune with the consumer demands and reconsider releasing new models every 3-4 years.
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My wishful thinking:
A high MP full frame DSLR to counteract the Sony and Canon line-up.
As D90 can record video, I think that any new model will have at least that, hopefully with better quality than the paltry MJPEG and with more recording options than the upcoming 5DMk2 (i.e. 24/25/30 fps, locked AE exposure...).
I don't think that at this stage, Canon will enable pro level video features in the firmware for the 5Dmk2. Nikon - as opposed to Canon, Sony, Panasonic doesn't have a video camera division to protect and nothing can stop them to release a camera with serious video recording capabilities.
Any announcement will dampen the enthusiasm around the 5DMk2 release and will put off a lot of the potential buyers, who will be happy to wait a few months for a camera at least as good if not better than what's on offer now.
Canon will have to be a bit less sleepy, more in tune with the consumer demands and reconsider releasing new models every 3-4 years.
RED is saying that EVERYONE will have to be a bit less sleepy... Even if they deliver 80% of what they promised this morning, it's s game changer. The only thing that saves the incumbent DSLR manufacturers is the cost! The desirable still camera costs $12K for the body only, minus the viewfinder - BUT it's 24 MP, medium format dynamic range, fully modular (takes BOTH Canon and Nikon lenses) - OH, and its video mode... The movie mode just happens to be somewhere between top-end 35mm cine and 70mm OMNIMAX in quality... By the way,they also just introduced a 6x17 cm full-frame camera with 261 MP single-shot capture and a movie mode (which, if true, would have still image quality significantly beyond 4x10 INCH panoramic film and motion quality well beyond OMNIMAX). How the heck you view a 261 mp movie is beyond me - there's not a digital projector in the world with that kind of specs...
-Dan
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By the way,they also just introduced a 6x17 cm full-frame camera with 261 MP single-shot capture and a movie mode (which, if true, would have still image quality significantly beyond 4x10 INCH panoramic film and motion quality well beyond OMNIMAX). How the heck you view a 261 mp movie is beyond me - there's not a digital projector in the world with that kind of specs...
Build it and they will come!
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It's time to bump this thread as it appears Nikon will not do anything on November 20'th (that should have been an option too).
In light of that, I would change my vote as a December announcement in lieu of a November announcement is an entirely different ballgame (see my previous post regarding the timing of this). I think this post at DPR by Thom Hogan (http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=30062876) makes a lot of sense to me.
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It's time to bump this thread as it appears Nikon will not do anything on November 20'th (that should have been an option too).
In light of that, I would change my vote as a December announcement in lieu of a November announcement is an entirely different ballgame (see my previous post regarding the timing of this). I think this post at DPR by Thom Hogan (http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=30062876) makes a lot of sense to me.
Ah, the Dpreview experts! Best just wait and see.
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Ah, the Dpreview experts! Best just wait and see.
Well, "...just wait and see" applies to this thread from its inception and is why I didn't jump in initially. Based on some things I was reading from one of the "Dpreview experts" I concluded that nothing significant would be announced until December, and that date now seems to be confirmed: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp...essage=30066211 (http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=30066211)
Are you insinuating that Thom Hogan has no expertise?
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Well, "...just wait and see" applies to this thread from its inception and is why I didn't jump in initially. Based on some things I was reading from one of the "Dpreview experts" I concluded that nothing significant would be announced until December, and that date now seems to be confirmed: http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp...essage=30066211 (http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=30066211)
Are you insinuating that Thom Hogan has no expertise?
That is a misinterpretation of my posting.
I respect Thom's reviews. But he has taken to writing all knowing pieces telling us what Nikon should do and what Nikon will do. Thom has more knowledge than most people given his trade contacts and the fact that he writes highly respected user manuals, but at the end of the day the only people who know are Nikon and people who have signed Non Disclosure Agreements. Having read numerous 'expert' predictions which were 'guaranteed' to be 100% kosher, and which turned out to be wrong, I think it best just to wait and see.
My comment was more about the fact that anything on dpreview is suspect. I can't say I understand why Hogan gets involved in that nonsense.
Incidentally, numerous 'authorities' were predicting 20th November for an announcement.
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Incidentally, numerous 'authorities' were predicting 20th November for an announcement.
As a protest for Nikon's inability to meet their DPreview commitments, I will probably become a Yashica fanboy.
Cheers,
Bernard
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As a protest for Nikon's inability to meet their DPreview commitments, I will probably become a Yashica fanboy.
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+1
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That is a misinterpretation of my posting.
Not entirely, but I do agree with much of what you write in the follow-up
I respect Thom's reviews. But he has taken to writing all knowing pieces telling us what Nikon should do and what Nikon will do. Thom has more knowledge than most people given his trade contacts and the fact that he writes highly respected user manuals, but at the end of the day the only people who know are Nikon and people who have signed Non Disclosure Agreements. Having read numerous 'expert' predictions which were 'guaranteed' to be 100% kosher, and which turned out to be wrong, I think it best just to wait and see.
Thom is pretty clear about when he is saying "should", "could", or "might do". Sometimes he's wrong, and he doesn't claim to be superhuman.
I agree that speculation is usually a waste of time. On the other hand, I delayed purchasing the latest Nikon DSLR this year in anticipation of something with more resolution, and I will continue to put off purchasing such a camera until I can get one that has a smaller body and costs less than $3000.
My comment was more about the fact that anything on dpreview is suspect. I can't say I understand why Hogan gets involved in that nonsense.
Everything is suspect and DPR is not the only place that should be regarded with suspicion.
I am also mystified by Thom's participation in some of the threads there.
Incidentally, numerous 'authorities' were predicting 20th November for an announcement.
I try to separate the wheat from the chaff:
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp...essage=29853760 (http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=29853760)
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp...essage=30002696 (http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=30002696)
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I try to separate the wheat from the chaff:
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp...essage=29853760 (http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=29853760)
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp...essage=30002696 (http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=30002696)
Interesting. He is usually right about the big announcements.
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The new official rumour annoucement date is now Dec 1st... Yashica might have to wait another week.
Cheers,
Bernard
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The new official rumour annoucement date is now Dec 1st... Yashica might have to wait another week.
Cheers,
Bernard
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The new official rumour annoucement date is now Dec 1st... Yashica might have to wait another week.
Cheers,
Bernard
Can you provide a DPReview link to back up that claim?
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Can you provide a DPReview link to back up that claim?
Well... this is a genuine NDA (New DPreview Annoucement)...
Cheers,
Bernard
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The new official rumour annoucement date is now Dec 1st... Yashica might have to wait another week.
What is an "official rumor"?
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What is an "official rumor"?
Thats a rumor the Internet press has latched onto.
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What is an "official rumor"?
That's the one Nikon is spreading themselves I guess...
How could it be a coincidence that Nov 8th, then 20th and now Dec 1st are reported by several apparently credible posters as being major Nikon press events that end up never happening at all... how related could that be to the imminent availability of the 5DII and A900?... What would you do as a marketing manager having to deal with the 3 following constraints?
1. Your product won't be ready to announce before early DEcember
2. You have to protect the sales of 2 recently released FX body, let's call them D3 and D700 because your new camera perfoms just almost as well at high ISO while delivering twice the resolution,
3. You want to prevent your customers from switching over to Canon and Sony who are now releasing 2 directly competing products?
Well... you orchestrate consecutive fake leaks during 2 months to keep people put...
Note that it probably wouldn't make sense to do it if your announcement were 3 months away.
Cheers,
Bernard
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As I was on the brink of ordering a D700 for myself, this bit of funny publicity has stopped me from doing anything at all.
It might be a blessing in disguise.
I hear on the news that the UK government is lowering the extortionate 17.5% tax on some purchases (VAT) to something somewhat lower. This could make a difference to me, though I live in Spain, if only because the pound against the € is so damn low at the moment and importing it makes the penalties of currency exchange very severe indeed. We shall see. Perhaps they will find that the Euro is as fragile as the poor old quid - there is little sign of a thrusting economy here that I can distinguish - and it, too, will topple into the abyss.
It then becomes a matter of how expensive or otherwise it would be for a camera to be sent over here from the UK. (You know, there really were `good old days´ when everything had a semblance of order.)
Sometimes, the old adage about doing nothing when in doubt might just be spot-on!
Rob C
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As I was on the brink of ordering a D700 for myself, this bit of funny publicity has stopped me from doing anything at all.
It might be a blessing in disguise.
Rob C
I was looking at the D700 as well.....and almost had one.....I had the shipper send it back to the retailer before it made it to the doorstep.....at the last minute I wasn't there to receive it, so it I had the shipper return it. Fate or Blessing?
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I was looking at the D700 as well....
I'm not sure what the D700 has to do with the now past November 18'th announcement, or with the putative December 1'st announcement. There were seven votes for a "D700x", but I doubt that is likely and would think a "D3x" and D300 upgrade (more megapixels and video) would be more likey, ironically an option we were not given in the provided poll. Price points and capabilities are going to be different and comparing a D700 to any of the possibilities is the proverbial apples to oranges comparison. FWIW, I expect to buy a D700 when the price gets to around $2000 (I'll settle for slightly used) and would use it for low light applications that it would be more suitable for than the D300 or "D3x".
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[quote name='Tony Beach' date='Nov 23 2008, 05:09 PM' post='238949']
I'm not sure what the D700 has to do with the now past November 18'th announcement, or with the putative December 1'st announcement.
And that, Tony, is the problem: none of us knows but many of us fear taking the wrong step because of this thing that´s going down. If, in fact, anything is.
Spooky!
Rob C
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...many of us fear taking the wrong step because of this thing that´s going down. If, in fact, anything is.
Do you need or want a D700? If yes and you can afford it, then buy it; if not, then wait for something that better suits your needs or wants, or wait for the price of the D700 to drop as it will inevitably do. As I already have stated, I made that decision back in August and decided to wait as long as it takes for something that suits my wants more (namely, a high MP DSLR).
The D700 is a great camera for low light photography, I'm reasonably certain Nikon's next DSLR will be no better (probably worse) and if it is indeed more MP it will generate larger files. Do you really want massive files? If you are printing really big than there will be a few occasions where it will be preferable, just as there are a few occasions where extreme low light performance is preferable -- for the vast majority of my photography, the D300 is actually perfectly adequate (compared to 135 format film, I have no complaints whatsoever), YMMV.
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The new official rumour annoucement date is now Dec 1st... Yashica might have to wait another week.
Cheers,
Bernard
Actually that's not a rumor, Nikon invited us for a new DSLR product presentation at 6th Dec., and official announcement is at 1st.
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As I was on the brink of ordering a D700 for myself, this bit of funny publicity has stopped me from doing anything at all.
It might be a blessing in disguise.
I hear on the news that the UK government is lowering the extortionate 17.5% tax on some purchases (VAT) to something somewhat lower. This could make a difference to me, though I live in Spain, if only because the pound against the € is so damn low at the moment and importing it makes the penalties of currency exchange very severe indeed. We shall see. Perhaps they will find that the Euro is as fragile as the poor old quid - there is little sign of a thrusting economy here that I can distinguish - and it, too, will topple into the abyss.
It then becomes a matter of how expensive or otherwise it would be for a camera to be sent over here from the UK. (You know, there really were `good old days´ when everything had a semblance of order.)
Sometimes, the old adage about doing nothing when in doubt might just be spot-on!
Rob C
I am sceptical that the 2.5% reduction in VAT will actually be passed on to the consumer. I really can't see shops who price everything a x.99 selling say, a 4.99 item at £4.87. Even though this is a big ticket purchase, I can't see shops repricing anything.
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I am sceptical that the 2.5% reduction in VAT will actually be passed on to the consumer. I really can't see shops who price everything a x.99 selling say, a 4.99 item at £4.87. Even though this is a big ticket purchase, I can't see shops repricing anything.
We seem to do price changes weekly, which can get very annoying.
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At least one announcement (presumably Dec. 1) is a D3x, with a clear D3x badge on it - Nikon just, either accidentally or on purpose, posted pictures of a D3x (which looks EXACTLY like a D3, so the pictures themselves don't mean anything - the only thing that does is that they showed up on Nikon's own website). There may be another camera waiting in the wings, but, if so, we don't know anything about it yet... I'm looking forward to the specs, and more importantly, to pictures FROM instead of OF the D3x - some folks who have seen it in person and taken test shots hint at breakthrough image quality (I have held off on moving to medium format, waiting to see if Nikon comes through).
-Dan
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1. Your product won't be ready to announce before early DEcember
2. You have to protect the sales of 2 recently released FX body, let's call them D3 and D700 because your new camera perfoms just almost as well at high ISO while delivering twice the resolution,
3. You want to prevent your customers from switching over to Canon and Sony who are now releasing 2 directly competing products?
Well... you orchestrate consecutive fake leaks during 2 months to keep people put...
"To my knowledge, Nikon is not leaking information intentionally, nor do they like the leaks."
Thom Hogan (http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1000&message=30148055)
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24,5MP, new OLPF type and 16 bit quantization - seems to be very promising:
http://sebrogers.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c...8da12970c-800wi (http://sebrogers.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341cc2d753ef01053628da12970c-800wi)
http://sebrogers.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c...02a77970b-800wi (http://sebrogers.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341cc2d753ef010536202a77970b-800wi)
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A colleague of mine just received his latest copy of Nikon Pro magazine (here in the UK) and it has the D3x announcement in it. So i guess its out and official now, regardless of other announcement dates. Oops, i suppose they got their timing off a bit...
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There should be a new thread with December 1'st as the date. I find it amusing that about 8 votes in the informal poll about what Nikon would do on November 20'th (they did nothing) have come after that date.
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24,5MP, new OLPF type and 16 bit quantization - seems to be very promising:
http://sebrogers.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c...8da12970c-800wi (http://sebrogers.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341cc2d753ef01053628da12970c-800wi)
http://sebrogers.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c...02a77970b-800wi (http://sebrogers.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341cc2d753ef010536202a77970b-800wi)
http://www.robgalbraith.com/bins/content_p...cid=7-9318-9779 (http://www.robgalbraith.com/bins/content_page.asp?cid=7-9318-9779)