Luminous Landscape Forum
Equipment & Techniques => Digital Cameras & Shooting Techniques => Topic started by: heavysigh on June 30, 2005, 05:49:03 pm
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Yes, because as we all know, people always keep secrets. And speculation is always pointless. And whatever happened to fun?
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This is pointless.
No it's not.
Most amateur photographers, and not a few pros, are working on a budget that precludes frequent upgrades. With meaningful product improvements coming thick and fast picking the timing of a digital purchase will remain an issue for some years yet.
With medium format it's worse, not only the model timing but the manufacturer choice is an issue, witness Michael's speculation about Mamiya's financial position...is he talking out of his rectum too?
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Michael,
Funny I never found Jonathan's phrase acceptable nor did I find your endorsement of "Cute". I simply reported what I heard from a reputable photographer on a new Canon camera. I found Jonathan's response rude but not surprising while your's was both rude and surprising.
I guess what you are saying is that if you speculate on something and provide details to possibly support your hypothesis than that hypothesis is sound.
But if an infrequent poster (but NOT an infrequent reader) does the same thing, then that hypothesis is deserving of derision.
Sounds like the old schoolyard "It's my ball and I'm going home". Well, now that I know the rules, I'll make sure to abide by them.
Thanks(?),
heavysigh.
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Folks, I'm going to go out on a limb here...
If Canon has anything in the works, there is a chance beta testers are aware. Michael is priveledged and trusted to be a Canon beta tester. He is providing you with bandwidth to have this discourse. Canon is aware of that. Even though he is not violating non-disclosure personally, this is making him look bad in the eyes of Canon. They may want this banter, but they may also not want it. He already hinted that its time to give it a rest. Give the guy a break already.
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Speculation has been rampant about a "digital EOS 3" ever since the 1D was introduced, and so far it has been nothing but talk. Such a camera is inconsistent with Canon's stated intentions regarding DSLR development and production, at least until the 1- series (1Ds and 1D mark whatever) is combined into a single high-speed, high resolution model. Until that happens, the introduction of a model between the 1D-MkII and the 20D is highly unlikely.
Just rereading this thread again - had to laught at this piece of speculation in view of the earlier comments, and the now not very well kept secret of the imminent release of the 5D.
???
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My take on this is the 1DMKIIN will be a 12+ meg full chip for $3900.00-4000.00. The 5D will be a 8+meg 1.6 crop body aimed at the Wedding Photogs for $3200.00.
We will see Monday Thanks charles354
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Okay, first off, please don't kill the messanger.
I was at a convention in San Francisco today and I spoke to a photographer covering the event. This guy was the real deal; I saw his legimate press pass and creditentials. He was shooting with two Canon 1d Mark IIs which got my attention. I've never shot one before and so I started asking him some questions about the 1d MII.
Eventually, he asked me what I shoot and I told him that I shot a D60 and an 20D. The photographer told me that he was recently speaking to a "Canon R&D guy I know in Europe." The guy works for Canon and told him that Canon's new Autumn DSLR will be a 12 Megapixel camera called the D40. It will be the newest camera in the line of D30, D60, 10D and 20D.
The sensor will "more than likely be larger, along the lines of the 1D MII size." (This would make 12 Meg more feasible)
The photographer proceeded to tell me that Canon always comes out with a rebate on the current model just before they announce the new model. SOP for them. This is to help move a large amount of bodies since people hold off purchasing the current model if a new one is going to be available soon. (And there is $100 rebate on the 20D right now)
Here's the announcement history of Canon DSLRs:
D30 - announced May 17 2000
D60 - announced February 22 2002
10D - announced February 27 2003
20D - announced August 19 2004
You'll note that Canon has announced a new DSLR in this line every year. The only exception was the two years between the D30 and D60. However, the D30 was Canon's first and only DSLR and Canon did come out with the 1D on September 25 2001.
Now, we all know that until Canon makes an announcement, this is simply speculation. But I did have this conversation this afternoon and even if it does eventually proof false, I was very geeked all the way home today.
Anybody else heard any rumours or leaks? Maybe someone who has contact(s) at Canon? Maybe someone whose intials may be M.R.? Even a "No comment" comment?
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Well, that was a rather rude comment!
If you doubt my observations about Mamiya's financial situation you might ask for its basis rather that thowing gartuitous jibes.
But, so that you can decide if there's anyhting behind it (so to speak), here is what is well known in the industry...
During the past two major trade shows Mamiya's "bankers" have been talking to industry insiders about their impressions of the future of medium format. Indeed Mamiya was a no-show at a major recent trade show, after having reserved a large display area.
I also have spoken directly with someone who has seen their recent financial statements and who has expressed concerns about the companies long-term viability.
Mamiya has another major segment of their business which involves bank note scanners, and which is doing very well. But, the camera business is a drain and has been doing poorly for the past couple of years as analog equipment sales decline and high end 35mm DSLRs (read Canon 1Ds series) take over many aspects of professional photography previously the domain of medium format, where Mamiya had decent market share.
So there you have it. Talk to photographic retailers who can't get inventory, with little or no explanation of why.
Make your own determinations (including visiting with these retailers and VARs and finding out what they think – as I have), but save the rudeness for somewhere else where it's better tolerated, not here.
Michael
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Gary,
I'm sorry, but I can't recall ever commenting on the topic of the next Canon camera as "idle specualtion". I've never commented on this at all.
Bob – yes, there's no place here for rudeness. The standard that I hope for, and try and enforce, is the same as would be found if we were all sitting around in someones living room discussing these topics in person. The name calling and nastyness such that one finds on other forums simply isn't welcome here.
I have no problem with heated debate.
And yes, I found Johnathan's use of the phase acceptable, while I found Gary's not, simply because one was a generalized comment and the other was aimed at an individual, in this case me.
I may have overreacted thiough, and if so I appologize. Now that I re-read the entire thread I see that Gary likely wasn't intending to be rude toward me but was echoing an earlier comment. Mea culpa.
Michael
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Getting back to the original post, I too have received rumours about something significant happening from Canon in the second half of the year.
While anything that is from a mate-of-a-mate-of-a-mate-who-knows-someone-at-canon is hardly quality speculation, I am keen to see what develops as I am feeling the need for an upgrade - been hittings some limits in the 10D for about the last six months (mostly to do with buffer size and/or card write speed).
What is slightly interesting is the way that the Canon model numbers are going. Since the first EOS models were released (650, 620), the lower number has always been the high-spec device. Seems that with the digitals, Canon is going the opposite way: D60 beats D30, 20D beats 10D, 350D beats 300D, 1DS trumps them all.
What would a 5D or a 3D model do?
Andrew
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If the 5D is real, that could be an indication that the unified 1-series body (high speed + high resolution) is almost ready for prime-time as well, which would continue Canon's stated 3-tier approach to the DSLR market. Time will tell.
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Andrew Larkin asked:
What would a 5D or a 3D model do?
The 5D adds 5 channel surround sound, using a microphone on each top corner of the body, with the center channel mic hidden in the Canon "o". This will enable enjoying "Sounds of Nature" while reviewing your shots on your home theater/AV convergence system.
The 3D takes two identical shots in quick succession, applying a green filter to the first and a red filter to the second. New Canon software will automatically place these two pictures in horizontal juxtaposition for viewing on the aforementioned convergence system. Cardboard glasses are a necessary option, and approved models containing Genuine Canon Lenses will be made available, at modest extra cost.
Speculating with the brain idling...
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This is pointless. Anyone who knows what's really happening is not going to confirm or deny anything due to NDA constraints, meaning that anyone willing to discuss this is by definition talking out of their rectum.
(http://galleries.visual-vacations.com/images/smilies/dp.gif)
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Jonathan – cute!
And correct. ::
I thought you'd appreciate that one.
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"but save the rudeness for somewhere else where it's better tolerated, not here.
Michael"
I assume that comment applies to all the posters who made wandered across the line of civility?
Including the one who you thought "cute".
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I think "heavysigh"s initial post remains interesting. Too bad the discussion devolved into name calling. Discussions about future releases are important, & most of us are wise enough to know that much of the discussion is speculative.
I, for one, love the idea of a "40D" 12'er. Bring it on, Canon!
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Speculation has been rampant about a "digital EOS 3" ever since the 1D was introduced, and so far it has been nothing but talk. Such a camera is inconsistent with Canon's stated intentions regarding DSLR development and production, at least until the 1- series (1Ds and 1D mark whatever) is combined into a single high-speed, high resolution model. Until that happens, the introduction of a model between the 1D-MkII and the 20D is highly unlikely.
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Canon, shmanon, where's my Nikon D200!
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So was the original poster privy to a leak?
Accusations of rectovocalisation to be withdrawn with humble apologies Jonathan? (after the official release anouncement of course)
Tony Collins
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So was the original poster privy to a leak?
Accusations of rectovocalisation to be withdrawn with humble apologies Jonathan? (after the official release anouncement of course)
Tony Collins
The only thing the rumor got right (possibly) was the megapixel count. The leaked PDF indicates full-frame "5D" and the rumor claimed a 1.3X "4D". The alleged 5D is closer in size to the 20D than the 1D-MkII size claimed of the "4D" rumor. If the guy did have inside information, then he most certainly violated an NDA by disseminating such information, which mean's it's highly unlikely he'll ever be offered the opportunity to sign another. The vast majority of those who claim "inside knowledge" while prematurely disseminating details are talking out of their rectum for that reason. On the other hand, given that only the megapixel count is approximately right and the other details were wrong, it could simply be a "even a broken clock is right twice a day" lucky guess. One out of four ain't bad. We'll see tomorrow.
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Jonathan – cute!
And correct. ::
Michael
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Mark Felt (a.k.a. Deep Throat) knew some stuf fthe general public didn't know and that perhaps he should have kept to himself, but didn't. Maybe he got his nickname because he was talking out his rectum.
Industrial espionage is alive and well, and a "leak" may be good for business. How naive can one be to think Nikon is clueless about Canon's secrets? If Nikon can find out, why not someone else?
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Well, that was a rather rude comment!
Don't take it that way, that wasn't the sentiment.
But here's the thing. Comments about Mamiya's financial security (which is a very different thing from comments about divisional underperformance) is considered legitimate journalism. Comments about a replacement for the 20D (a banker's bet, the only question is the "what" and the "when") is dismissed as idle specualtion.
How's that work?
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"Most amateur photographers, and not a few pros, are working on a budget that precludes frequent upgrades."
Amen. I can only afford one DSLR in the relative near future (and given my age, most likely my only one). I am still shooting film and scanning and just bought a Canon A95 digital P&S to play with on vacation. I'm thinking I'd like to transition to a DSLR within the next year and would hope to get the most bang for my buck. So I keep reading these "pointless" discussions.
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Boku - and all...
Although I agree (in this case with Jonathan) that speculation is not necessarily going to help anyone. I read Michael's first response as a sublte acknoledgement of the original post's information. Of course - I could be wrong. That's the problem with the internet or any text based information. If often loses it's implied meaning without being to hear the inflection provided by the writer's own voice.
I for one just upgraded to a 20D and RebelXT a few months ago and was happily rewarded with the $100 rebate that was made available the day after my purchase. I don't care about what upgrades Canon has in mind for two reasons.
I don't make the majority of my money from photography, therefore I don't need the latest and greatest equiptment. Just stuff that lets me make great images. If I did I'd have no real problem staying close to the cutting edge of gear and would have a suitable budget for a smart upgrade path, not just buying the next "best" thing. I've had a D30 and Elan7 since December of 2001. I've made many 12x18 prints from my old D30 that still look great. Not as good as scanned 35mm, but at a fraction of the cost. The 20D and RebelXT combined were less than the original D30 alone. Forget about film costs. I guess my point is that if you really "need" the resolution of the unrealeased camera which will of course be here at some point. Then you certainly have the cash to go out and get something right now that will do the job. The problem is that so many people "want" stuff they don't really "need."
I "want" a 1DsII - but will never make a print large enough to justify the resolution of the camera - nor spend the money on the required accessories to make the camera really shine. I upgraded only because I now have the flexability to crop more and get equal or better resolution than the D30 could ever give me. If it weren't for that and better autofocus/shooting speed - I'd still be happy shooting with the D30. That camera made me fall in love with shooting all over again.
I don't know why I wrote all that - but whenever I see people getting concerned over the next release of a camera - It makes me think that they are either gear crazy or living beyond their means. I mean no offense to anyone - I've just gotten past all that in my life. I used to be exactly the same way.
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There will be a new camera soon like any other modern electronic product.
If you constantly try and second guess you will end up never getting anything. Or make oneself neurotic when you do when the camera is no longer the latest model. The lens and the photographer's method and vision are probably the limiting factors from now on.
My approach was to jump in when certain minimum criteria were met. I will upgrade when I think there is a significant delta in performance or an obsolescence issue (wife permitting!)
I use this strategy with computers. It is probably even more valid for DSLRs.
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So was the original poster privy to a leak?
The OP was privy to one part of a well-placed marketing campaign from Canon, which we've all participated in. We should charge royalties.
We've had this at least two times before already, with the 350D and the 20D. Very droll.
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I have to believe that these "leaks" are deliberate marketing ideas. There never seem to be "leaks" when a model is a long time from release, just when it is a few months away(at best). I think it is done to generate excitement about a release, and possibly so that the manufacturer can get feedback about what their customers desire or do not desire before they have committed themselves with a product release and specs.
The amount of anger and lack of civility that rumours generate continues to surprise. I am following several different threads in different forums, and almost without exception people get insulted at some point because they dare to post what their "sources" have told them. All rumours are just that, unsubstantiated, but as we have seen in the past. "Some" of the information IS correct that we have heard, we just don't know for sure which part. Kind of like the JFK asassination, there are many theories, and we most certainly have the truth in front of us, but we have no way of knowing what the true parts are.
For me , give me a MII "N" that does 12.8MP at 8fps, FF or not, and I will have to cash in an RSP! :D