Luminous Landscape Forum
The Art of Photography => The Coffee Corner => Topic started by: LesPalenik on January 28, 2020, 11:45:43 am
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As of Jan 28, the number of deaths from the coronavirus has risen to 106 in China, with more than 4,565 cases of infection, and other countries, mainly in Germany and Japan. The number of known cases of the new virus rose by nearly 60 percent overnight. Experts to warn that the real number may be higher because of shortage of test kits. In USA, as of Jan 28, there are 5 known cases of coronavirus, all people who visited Wuhan.
This number pales to 45 million influenza cases and 12,000-61,000 related deaths annually, as reported by CDC (Centre For Disease Control And Prevention). Actually, if anything, number of deaths because of seasonal influenza is under reported, since many patients with influenza die from other complications such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days after infection.
CDC in USA estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
(https://www.cdc.gov/flu/images/about/burden/Influenza-Chart-Infographic-high-res.jpg)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
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Hopefully it never reaches the numbers that influenza do.
I think the potential to be disruptive to our species is cause for concern. Sometimes a virus crossing over from another animal becomes a global event.
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There are a lot of unknowns yet, including if it can be transmitted before you become asymptomatic (a big thing), how effective is the human to human transmission, what's the mortality.
Influenza can wreak havoc but it's a relatively known entity with some treatment available.
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The initial coronavirus reports (both from China and other countries) downplayed the risks and assured us that this outbreak won't be as dangerous as SARS.
What was the reason for the wrong assessment? Incompetency or cover-up attempt?
SARS disease started in late 2002 and in 6 months it infected over 8000 people and caused 800 deaths.
According to Hong Kong University’s medicine dean Gabriel Leung, the coronavirus outbreak doubles every 6.2 days, in other words coronavirus is ten times worse than SARS. Now, a new mathematical model from the Hong Kong University's academics predicts the number of infections of the Wuhan coronavirus could see 150,000 new cases every day in China at its peak.
A mathematical model from the Hong Kong University's academics predict the number of infections of the Wuhan coronavirus could see 150,000 new cases every day in China between late April and early May.
- Coronavirus can affect up to 150,000 people on a daily basis at its peak.
- Wuhan seafood market is not where the virus first spread, study finds.
- With no cure in sight and the virus outbreak rapidly expanding, markets are reacting with a sharp sell-off.
The Coronavirus outbreak doubles every 6.2 days. according to the prestigious Hong Kong University’s medicine dean Gabriel Leung. That figure validates the forecast of top virologists who claim that Coronavirus is ten times worse than SARS.
https://www.ccn.com/dramatic-hong-kong-data-predicts-coronavirus-outbreak-infecting-150000-every-day/
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The fatality rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%, with the rate of the Spanish flu of 1918 being 20%. Ebola's is 90%.
The worse case by your stats, dividing 61,000 by 9,300,000, gives us a fatality rate of 0.66%. Higher then the seasonal flu, but no where as bad as some of the epidemics in history. Assuming it does not mutate, I think we will weather the storm fine.
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Another day, and another 1,459 new coronavirus cases and 26 additional deaths in China. Those figures bring the total cases to 5,974 confirmed cases, with 132 deaths.
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So I was in NYC on 3rd Avenue in Manhattan a couple of days ago in Kips Bay. So I go to a favoured Chinese restaurant nearby. I walk in lunchtime around 130pm and I'm the only one there except for the help. I mean the only one! It's lunchtime. Always a big crowd. So I ask, "Where is everyone?" The waitress said something cryptic that I didn't understand and pointed to a nearby table to sit down. I thought it strange. But I sat down and chopstixed my way through some sesame chicken, brown rice, broccoli, wonton soup and lots of crispy fried noodles along with a diet Coke. It wasn;t til later that I figure out what was going on. My wife did mention to me not to eat Chinese. I thought she was referring to the fact it's not good for my diabetes.
Should I check my temperature?
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So I was in NYC on 3rd Avenue in Manhattan a couple of days ago in Kips Bay. So I go to a favoured Chinese restaurant nearby. I walk in lunchtime around 130pm and I'm the only one there except for the help. I mean the only one! It's lunchtime. Always a big crowd. So I ask, "Where is everyone?" The waitress said something cryptic that I didn't understand and pointed to a nearby table to sit down. I thought it strange. But I sat down and chopstixed my way through some sesame chicken, brown rice, broccoli, wonton soup and lots of crispy fried noodles along with a diet Coke. It wasn;t til later that I figure out what was going on. My wife did mention to me not to eat Chinese. I thought she was referring to the fact it's not good for my diabetes.
Should I check my temperature?
Depends on how hot was the waitress. Also if she hails from Wuhan.
In case it's the corona virus, the body temperature will start rising after a week or so. In the meantime, you can check your discharge.
Actually, that would be a good time and excuse to skip the chicken and broccoli, and instead go to a steakhouse. Although that might kill you, too. But it would be more fun.
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I don't like eating a steak for lunch. No she wasn't hot. But the mustard was. And I think she hails from Chinatown.
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The coronavirus outbreak is much worse than originally anticipated and downplayed. It's not even at peak yet and the actual number of infections is much higher than the official figures.
The total number of confirmed cases in China stands at 20,438 as of Tuesday morning, including a 1-month-old baby in southwestern Guizhou province, an increase of 3,235 on the previous day -- an over 18% jump. The death toll is now at 425 in China, an increase of around 65 from Sunday.
On Monday, authorities in Japan quarantined a cruise ship at a port in Yokohama, south of Tokyo, after an elderly male passenger on the vessel was found to be infected with the virus when he disembarked in Hong Kong in late January.
Japanese health authorities said around 2,500 passengers and some 1,000 crew members are on board the Diamond Princess, which returned to Yokohama after stops in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Japanese prefectures of Okinawa and Kagoshima. At least seven people on board said they feel ill, though none have been confirmed to have the virus.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/04/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-update-intl-hnk/index.html
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In Belgrade, a Chinese woman sneezed on the bus. At the next bus station, only, she, the driver, and a guy with headphones on stayed on the bus ;)
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In Belgrade, a Chinese woman sneezed on the bus. At the next bus station, only, she, the driver, and a guy with headphones on stayed on the bus ;)
Last time I was on the bus, 80% of the passengers wore the headphones.
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Here's a link to the tracker put out by John Hopkins
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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The numbers I read today about the annual number of seasonal flu casualties worldwide is around 500,000, about 100,000 of which in China. But very little is done to prevent it from spreading.
The rate of casualty being between 0.01 and 0.1%.
On the other hand the rate of casualty of the corona virus is estimated at 2% and nobody knows whether it spreads more easily or not than the normal seasonal flu.
One would expect it to therefore potentially cause the death of 1,000,000+ people if nothing were done to stop it. This corresponds to the level of casualties causes by the Hong-Kong flu in the late 1960s btw.
Fortunately China has taken very strong measures, but I fear that the death toll could nonetheless be in the thousands if not more.
Cheers,
Bernard
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Last time I was on the bus, 80% of the passengers wore the headphones.
That's Western affluenza. We are a poor country ;)
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The Asian flu always starts every year in Asia? Anyone know why?
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The Asian flu always starts every year in Asia? Anyone know why?
It's like the sun, it starts also in the east.
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That's interesting. I've always thought of the sun rising in Europe and setting in Asia. I always orient myself, Canada is north, where it's cold. :) well, maybe not too longer.
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well, the sun better rise wherever you are... :o
or we have much larger problems ;D ;D ;D
The tropics are a hotbed of viral mutation with strains in animals jumping to human hosts just because it is warm and lush. Asia and the African continent, Central and South America with large areas of tropical conditions have a long history of human - wild animal consumption. We in the rest of the world did too until the advent of housed domesticated animals reduced the demand for wild meat and reduced interactions. It still happens, just at a lower frequency and thus overall reduced chance of species jumping. Large populations of domestic animals (pigs and fowl usually) can serve as transmission vectors as well if they get infected from a wild source.
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The Asian flu always starts every year in Asia? Anyone know why?
Same reason why the "Spanish flu" (the 1918 influenza pandemic) started in Spain? :D
Actually it didn't start in Spain, or hit Spain any worse than other countries:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
To maintain morale, wartime censors minimized early reports of illness and mortality in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States.[10][11] Papers were free to report the epidemic's effects in neutral Spain (such as the grave illness of King Alfonso XIII).[12] These stories created a false impression of Spain as especially hard hit,[13] thereby giving rise to the pandemic's nickname, "Spanish flu".
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This corresponds to the level of casualties causes by the Hong-Kong flu in the late 1960s btw.
Inspiring a great tune:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wy6-EVRYuCs
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A new report how the Chinese initially attempted to suppress the news about the coronavirus outbreak.
Beijing (CNN): The Chinese doctor who tried to warn others about the Wuhan coronavirus has died, according to several state media reports.
Li Wenliang, a 34-year-old doctor working in Wuhan, raised the alarm about the novel coronavirus in December, posting in his medical school alumni group on the Chinese messaging app WeChat that seven patients from a local seafood market had been diagnosed with a SARS-like illness and were quarantined in his hospital. Soon after he posted the message, Li was accused of rumor-mongering by the Wuhan police. He was one of several medics targeted by police for trying to blow the whistle on the deadly virus in the early weeks of the outbreak, which has sickened more than 28,000 people and killed more than 560. Li was hospitalized on January 12 after contracted the virus from one of his patients, and he was confirmed to have the coronavirus on February 1.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/asia/li-wenliang-coronavirus-whistleblower-doctor-dies-intl/index.html
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A new report how the Chinese initially attempted to suppress the news about the coronavirus outbreak.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/asia/li-wenliang-coronavirus-whistleblower-doctor-dies-intl/index.html
Old habits die hard. But the lessons of how to handle things keep spreading from established dictatorships to nascent dictatorships. With so many 'ships in the same sea, an accident is pretty much bound to happen.
:-(