PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[Alan Klein]

The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the COVID-19 crisis has officially launched the U.S. economy into a recession, thus ending the longest economic expansion on record. 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-officially-in-recession-nber-165226139.html

[hogloff]

The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the COVID-19 crisis has officially launched the U.S. economy into a recession, thus ending the longest economic expansion on record. 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-officially-in-recession-nber-165226139.html

You believe these experts?

[Alan Klein]

You believe these experts?

Fair point.  However, I can look around and actually see all the stores that are closed and how many people who have lost their jobs.  I don't need a report or an expert to tell me we're in trouble economically.  The report only confirms what I figured out for myself months ago.  But with the virus, there's no way to know whether asymptomatic people spread or don't spread viruses.  You have to depend on others.  So you lose trust they know what they're doing when they keep changing their minds.  It's obvious they're learning as we go along.  They're just as confused as the rest of us.   

[faberryman]

Fair point.  However, I can look around and actually see all the stores that are closed and how many people who have lost their jobs.  I don't need a report or an expert to tell me we're in trouble economically.  The report only confirms what I figured out for myself months ago.  But with the virus, there's no way to know whether asymptomatic people spread or don't spread viruses.  You have to depend on others.  So you lose trust they know what they're doing when they keep changing their minds.  It's obvious they're learning as we go along.  They're just as confused as the rest of us.

Must...resist..

[hogloff]

Fair point.  However, I can look around and actually see all the stores that are closed and how many people who have lost their jobs.  I don't need a report or an expert to tell me we're in trouble economically.  The report only confirms what I figured out for myself months ago.  But with the virus, there's no way to know whether asymptomatic people spread or don't spread viruses.  You have to depend on others.  So you lose trust they know what they're doing when they keep changing their minds.  It's obvious they're learning as we go along.  They're just as confused as the rest of us.

Don't put everyone into the same confused barrel as you are in. The message from our medical authority has been consistent to keep 6' apart, wear a mask in crowded places, wash hands on a regular basis and self isolate if you feel ill.

[Alan Klein]

Don't put everyone into the same confused barrel as you are in. The message from our medical authority has been consistent to keep 6' apart, wear a mask in crowded places, wash hands on a regular basis and self isolate if you feel ill.

Well, apparently Gov Cuomo of NYS was confused when he followed CDC guidelines he claimed and sent thousands of elderly New Yorkers back to their deaths in assisted living communities.   The point I raised is that all the confusion as to what's the correct policy has caused a lot of decision makers at the highest level of government make what seems to be bad decisions.  Are you arguing that expert advice has been always consistent and accurate?  No one who's been paying attention believes that. 

[LesPalenik]

Allowing the recent street demonstrations and looting was even more irresponsible. There could be thousands of new virus transmissions. And most looters didn't even wear any masks.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

... And most looters didn't even wear any masks.

So stupid... they could be easily recognized

[hogloff]

Well, apparently Gov Cuomo of NYS was confused when he followed CDC guidelines he claimed and sent thousands of elderly New Yorkers back to their deaths in assisted living communities.   The point I raised is that all the confusion as to what's the correct policy has caused a lot of decision makers at the highest level of government make what seems to be bad decisions.  Are you arguing that expert advice has been always consistent and accurate?  No one who's been paying attention believes that.

What CDC guideline lead to thousands of deaths in assisted living communities. The assisted living facility my mother-in-law is in was locked down in mid March not allowing visitors inside. Still locked down today. What exactly did the CDC say that lead to all these deaths?

[Alan Klein]

What CDC guideline lead to thousands of deaths in assisted living communities. The assisted living facility my mother-in-law is in was locked down in mid March not allowing visitors inside. Still locked down today. What exactly did the CDC say that lead to all these deaths?

Cuomo blamed the Feds claiming that sick elderly were sent home from the hospitals to their homes in assisted living communities because of some Federal government rule.  He blamed the CDC. He blamed Trump.  He of course is blameless even though he told the world that governors are responsible for what goes on in their states and make the final decision.

Cuomo says New York followed federal guidelines when sending coronavirus patients to nursing homes
As of March 22, at least 5,700 in New York nursing homes were confirmed or presumed dead due to Covid-19, according to data from the state's health department. The data does not break out the number of coronavirus patients who entered nursing homes following the state's DOH order.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/23/politics/cuomo-new-york-nursing-homes-coronavirus-patients/index.html

[hogloff]

Cuomo blamed the Feds claiming that sick elderly were sent home from the hospitals to their homes in assisted living communities because of some Federal government rule.  He blamed the CDC. He blamed Trump.  He of course is blameless even though he told the world that governors are responsible for what goes on in their states and make the final decision.

Cuomo says New York followed federal guidelines when sending coronavirus patients to nursing homes
As of March 22, at least 5,700 in New York nursing homes were confirmed or presumed dead due to Covid-19, according to data from the state's health department. The data does not break out the number of coronavirus patients who entered nursing homes following the state's DOH order.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/23/politics/cuomo-new-york-nursing-homes-coronavirus-patients/index.html

Alan, I want to see the actual guidelines from the CDC that states sending infected patients to care homes.

[faberryman]

Alan, I want to see the actual guidelines from the CDC that states sending infected patients to care homes.

An important sentence from Alan's post is this:

The data does not break out the number of coronavirus patients who entered nursing homes following the state's DOH order.

So who knows how many, if any, patients known to be infected with COVID-19 were readmitted to nursing homes. Perhaps that information is available somewhere.

[Alan Klein]

Alan, I want to see the actual guidelines from the CDC that states sending infected patients to care homes.

Gov Cuomo claimed that he was following CDC guidelines.  If you have a problem with what the CDC guidelines were, ask him.  Regardless of what they were, Cuomo could have prevented people from being sent back to the nursing homes.  Not only didn't he, he ordered that they be sent back.  And the homes got infected with their own residents. 

[Alan Klein]

An important sentence from Alan's post is this:

So who knows how many, if any, patients known to be infected with COVID-19 were readmitted to nursing homes. Perhaps that information is available somewhere.

AP count: Over 4,500 virus patients sent to NY nursing homes
More than 4,500 recovering coronavirus patients were sent to New York’s already vulnerable nursing homes under a controversial state directive that was ultimately scrapped amid criticisms it was possibly accelerating the outbreaks
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/ap-count-4300-virus-patients-ny-nursing-homes-70825470

[Chris Kern]

If the scientific information provided here is false or disputable [i.e., your stated opinions based on exaggerated characterizations of fragmentary information], it should be answered here [i.e., in the thread for serious discussion of the pandemic], not in another thread.

And in the very next post in that thread:

Coincidentally, my wife, who knew nothing about the discussion we were having in the forum, confirmed my point to me a few minutes ago . . .

Yes, indeed, this is exactly the kind of indisputable, fact-based evidence confirming that your personal opinions are correct which all of us who frequent the other thread have been waiting to read.

[BobShaw]

Well the US has just set a new benchmark. 2 million cases or about 1 in 150 infections and now back over 1000 dead a day. Brazil is climbing up. The Americas now account for half of the global cases and getting worse.

[Chris Kern]

The Americas now account for half of the global cases and getting worse.

Still getting worse in this hemisphere, yes, especially in South America.  North America continues to report an increase in cases, but that may in part be a reflection of increased testing.  (Here in the States, many of our major urban areas seem to have the virus increasingly under control; in many rural areas the infection rate is getting worse.)

But I would be cautious about making regional comparisons about the distribution of cases worldwide.  The figures from South Asia, Russia, and parts of Africa are especially suspicious.  The rigor of the testing regimes varies widely from country to country, as does the accuracy of the reporting.

[BobShaw]

  The figures from South Asia, Russia, and parts of Africa are especially suspicious. 

Leaving Africa out of the equation, because their problems are huge apart from Covid, why do you say that?
Vietnam for example has been the subject of documentaries on how to defeat the virus.
Russia has reported 485,000 cases, so not sure what they are hiding.

Basically in a lot of countries if they are told to do something in the national interest they do it and it is enforced, and as a result most of these countries will be fully relaxed in a month or so. New Zealand is now fully relaxed. In Australia we expect to be fully relaxed by July as far as domestic is concerned (but we are always relaxed).

[Chris Kern]

Leaving Africa out of the equation, because their problems are huge apart from Covid, why do you say that?
Vietnam for example has been the subject of documentaries on how to defeat the virus.
Russia has reported 485,000 cases, so not sure what they are hiding.

I was referring to South Asia, not East Asia: it's not clear whether India and Pakistan have developed the reporting infrastructure to accurately determine the number of new COVID-19 infections nationwide.

As for Russia, the government is lifting the pandemic restrictions rather suddenly and arguably prematurely, publicly claiming "victory" over the coronavirus despite considerable evidence to the contrary―reportedly because President Putin doesn't want the restrictions to interfere with the big military parade in Moscow this month commemorating the 75th anniversary of the victory over Germany in World War II and the referendum, shortly thereafter, on whether to amend the Russian constitution to allow him to remain in power until 2036.

[Alan Klein]

And in the very next post in that thread:

Yes, indeed, this is exactly the kind of indisputable, fact-based evidence confirming that your personal opinions are correct which all of us who frequent the other thread have been waiting to read.

Apparently my wife has good company. The New York TImes agrees with her.

In the W.H.O.’s Coronavirus Stumbles, Some Scientists See a Pattern
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-world-health-organization.html