PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[JoeKitchen]

Just to clear that up, no-one in the world knows everything there is to know about it...yet.

There are, however, many scientists who know a lot about similar viruses, and who have learned, in this short time, a helleva lot about this particular one. We certainly should be taking careful note of what they are saying....

As they say, "in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king."

Come on now William, that is so offensive of you to say that!  Dont you know, as George Carlin told us, today the idiom is "in the kingdom of the visually impaired, the partially-sighted person is fully empowered."   

[JoeKitchen]

Word going around is that Trump's lawyers intend to argue that the President is exempt from investigation from any body, anywhere, for any reason.  That should bother you.

Only if it is excepted as a defense by the courts. 

[chez]

But we have no road map for the current situation.  We're all driving blind.  Who's to say which method is the best.  We won't know that until next year, maybe later. Then and only then will be be able to compare the various methods taken to see who made out the best.  Even then, there will be tradeoffs.  A lot depends where you stand. For someone like myself who's retired and old and worried about infections, then I side with greater isolation and shutdown.  After all, I'm still going to get my pensions and Social Security. (well, maybe not.) But for the young guy who has to feed his family, he's willing to take a shot getting sick because he realizes he's going to be in terrible straits if he can't work and put food on the table.

You're also assuming economies will recover.  Well, I have news for you.  They won't. The US, Spain and others are about to absorb a huge hit.  Printing money is a short term solution that will gain about a month or two but just add more debt that will have to be paid back next year like your charge cards.  Many economies will go into the toilet.  I was thinking just now of the Carribean Island economies that rely on tourist and cruise boats.  What are they eating?  What are Portuguese taxi drivers doing who use to wait at airports for new fares?  What are they eating nowadays?

In Canada they are getting $500 a week plus deferred taxes and rental payments. I don't feel anyone is starving here. If this is the case in the US...shame on you then. Riches country letting its citizens go without food while trillions are given to big business.

[JoeKitchen]

Here is an interesting interview that I came by this morning. 

Harvard Prof.: Don't Count On A COVID-19 Vaccine In 12 To 18 Months

If you try to ignore the obvious baiting headline and read through it, this professor makes a rather interesting suggestion, staff nursing homes with those that have already caught the virus and are immune to it.  Since the majority of deaths occur amongst the elderly with pre-existing conditions (which is exactly what nursing homes are filled with), this could make a rather large dent. 

Of course, HR issues would ensue with many working at these facilities being displaced due to not already catching it.  However, I am perfectly fine with telling them, "too damn bad."



The great issue though is getting past the bad faith arguments from the left designed at shutting down conversation on better solutions. 

I know many on here are employing at least logic and looking at the data, but there are still a large number of those on the left who are not and insisting everyone is equally vulnerable.  As I explained to a leftie friend of mine (not so sure if that is still the case now), implying this prevents the logical conclusion of concentrating our resources to the most vulnerable.  If you believe all are equally vulnerable, targeting resources will be at the expense of others.  This is not born out by the data though, and something we need to get past.  I am getting tired of the hysteria being employed by the left on this and all of the bad faith arguments. 

[Craig Lamson]

In Canada they are getting $500 a week plus deferred taxes and rental payments. I don't feel anyone is starving here. If this is the case in the US...shame on you then. Riches country letting its citizens go without food while trillions are given to big business.

In Indiana, my state, unemployed get $990 a week.  In many cases its exceeds their wages while they were working.  This is not a good thing.  More that a few cses have been noted where a business decided to take advantage of the Government load package that requires them to pay their employees, working or not.  Many are finding that those laid off employees dont want the pay, they want the UI payennts instead.  So yea lets reward people for NOT working or drawing a paycheck. And lets not forget the $1200 per adult plus $500 per child one time payment.

[Alan Klein]

In Canada they are getting $500 a week plus deferred taxes and rental payments. I don't feel anyone is starving here. If this is the case in the US...shame on you then. Riches country letting its citizens go without food while trillions are given to big business.

What if your expenses are $6000 a month and you lost your job?  What will you do in a few months when you see your whole life's work going down the drain?  How do you pay your cab's insurance when you have one fare a day?  How do you pay local property taxes?  What about your mortgage? How do you pay rent on your photo store?  Sure, the US government has printed trillions, so we're doing OK now.  Maybe.  But that's going to run out.  Canadian handouts are going to run out too.  If you think this is ending in a few weeks, you're kidding yourself.  And you want to keep the economy closed even longer.  There are 30 million Americans now out of work.  How many Canadians?  How many Canadians depend on America businesses for their jobs.  How many Canadian car workers are losing their jobs because Americans are going to stop buying them? 

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

In Indiana, my state, unemployed get $990 a week....

That surely include the $600 federal addition? There is no way that Indiana itself pays $990.

[Alan Klein]

Here is an interesting interview that I came by this morning. 

Harvard Prof.: Don't Count On A COVID-19 Vaccine In 12 To 18 Months

If you try to ignore the obvious baiting headline and read through it, this professor makes a rather interesting suggestion, staff nursing homes with those that have already caught the virus and are immune to it.  Since the majority of deaths occur amongst the elderly with pre-existing conditions (which is exactly what nursing homes are filled with), this could make a rather large dent. 

Of course, HR issues would ensue with many working at these facilities being displaced due to not already catching it.  However, I am perfectly fine with telling them, "too damn bad."



The great issue though is getting past the bad faith arguments from the left designed at shutting down conversation on better solutions. 

I know many on here are employing at least logic and looking at the data, but there are still a large number of those on the left who are not and insisting everyone is equally vulnerable.  As I explained to a leftie friend of mine (not so sure if that is still the case now), implying this prevents the logical conclusion of concentrating our resources to the most vulnerable.  If you believe all are equally vulnerable, targeting resources will be at the expense of others.  This is not born out by the data though, and something we need to get past.  I am getting tired of the hysteria being employed by the left on this and all of the bad faith arguments. 

I can just see the next advertisement in one of those on-line dating forums:

"Looking for young, demure, educated lady who likes to roller skate and travel.  Must have proof you've been exposed to Coronavirus and have antibodies.  Healthy women need not respond."

[Craig Lamson]

That surely include the $600 federal addition? There is no way that Indiana itself pays $990.

Thats correct.

[JoeKitchen]

What if your expenses are $6000 a month and you lost your job?  What will you do in a few months when you see your whole life's work going down the drain?  How do you pay your cab's insurance when you have one fare a day?  How do you pay local property taxes?  What about your mortgage? How do you pay rent on your photo store?  Sure, the US government has printed trillions, so we're doing OK now.  Maybe.  But that's going to run out.  Canadian handouts are going to run out too.  If you think this is ending in a few weeks, you're kidding yourself.  And you want to keep the economy closed even longer.  There are 30 million Americans now out of work.  How many Canadians?  How many Canadians depend on America businesses for their jobs.  How many Canadian car workers are losing their jobs because Americans are going to stop buying them?

The tooth paste is now out of the tube, and it is not going back in.  I fear we will now have a free-for-all.  Strict business shut downs are not being enforced in many areas, which means social distancing wont either. 

This could have been avoided if we just realized people cant live like this forever.  Eventually mental fatigue sets in and it all goes to shit.  We are now at the beginning of that, but instead of adjusting many on the left are doubling down. 

We could have a soft reopening with social distancing many in law enforcement would not only support, but politically would be justified.  (As I said before, you cant jail a person trying to save his/her family and business after releasing felons from jail.)  But now we are becoming a nation of scofflaws, again. 

Refusing compromise always ends in disaster, and, for the second time in a century, that is what the left is doing. 

[chez]

What if your expenses are $6000 a month and you lost your job?  What will you do in a few months when you see your whole life's work going down the drain?  How do you pay your cab's insurance when you have one fare a day?  How do you pay local property taxes?  What about your mortgage? How do you pay rent on your photo store?  Sure, the US government has printed trillions, so we're doing OK now.  Maybe.  But that's going to run out.  Canadian handouts are going to run out too.  If you think this is ending in a few weeks, you're kidding yourself.  And you want to keep the economy closed even longer.  There are 30 million Americans now out of work.  How many Canadians?  How many Canadians depend on America businesses for their jobs.  How many Canadian car workers are losing their jobs because Americans are going to stop buying them?

Well propert taxes have been deferred, banks are deferring mortgages and there is government help for your rental payments. There is even government help of 75% of staff salary to help small businesses keep their employees. Like I said I don't see or hear of anyone not getting food on their tables.

Alan, do you have any concrete proof of US citizens not being able to be fed? You always throw out these "sky is falling" scenarios but is there any substance behind your hysteria?

[Paulo Bizarro]

But we have no road map for the current situation.  We're all driving blind.  Who's to say which method is the best.  We won't know that until next year, maybe later. Then and only then will be be able to compare the various methods taken to see who made out the best.  Even then, there will be tradeoffs.  A lot depends where you stand. For someone like myself who's retired and old and worried about infections, then I side with greater isolation and shutdown.  After all, I'm still going to get my pensions and Social Security. (well, maybe not.) But for the young guy who has to feed his family, he's willing to take a shot getting sick because he realizes he's going to be in terrible straits if he can't work and put food on the table.

You're also assuming economies will recover.  Well, I have news for you.  They won't. The US, Spain and others are about to absorb a huge hit.  Printing money is a short term solution that will gain about a month or two but just add more debt that will have to be paid back next year like your charge cards.  Many economies will go into the toilet.  I was thinking just now of the Carribean Island economies that rely on tourist and cruise boats.  What are they eating?  What are Portuguese taxi drivers doing who use to wait at airports for new fares?  What are they eating nowadays?

Talking to you indeed feels like groundhog day... for the umpteenth time: many countries have road maps to deal with the current situation. Broadly speaking, phase 1 was tackling the health situation, implementing measures to break infection chains, and avoiding health services rupturing. Phase 2 is once the curve comes down,reopen economy carefully. Portugal has been in this pahse for 1 week, other countries are more advanced, others behind. Depending on individual characteristics and onset of infection. Germany and Spain, for example, have explained their several phases. All it takes is some reading and watching the news to gather this.

In the meantime, many countries have put in place financial measures to reduce the impact of the quarantines, subsidizing companies that had to shutdown momentarily, via lay off schemes, etc. Unemployment in Portugal in 2020 will rise, and the deficit will be around 7% of GDP. This is bad, of course, but there are measures in place to tackle that - for example, many volunteers are distributing food to those who need the most, thisat a local/neighbourhood level. Portuguese are very united and good when the need arises. Many similar examples are coming from several countries too. Solidarity works. Everybody recognizes that it was very important to save lives in the first phase of this fight, and we did that while saving the essential of the economy.

As for taxi drivers, they are doing fine, of course they saw reduced business, but things are coming back to life.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

In Canada they are getting $500 a week plus deferred taxes and rental payments. I don't feel anyone is starving here. If this is the case in the US...shame on you then. Riches country letting its citizens go without food while trillions are given to big business.

If you are a small business owner, you do not get unemployment benefits (UB). If you are an individual contractor, you do not get UB. if you are part-time worker, you do not get UB. Gig economy is much larger than it appears.

This isn't just about food and going hungry. Careers, and consequently, lives will be ruined forever. Millions who lost their jobs in the 2008 recession NEVER recovered, never found another similar job, or any job. Once you are six months out of job, you are considered a long-term unemployed, which nobody wants to hire. You stop looking for job, and then you drop out of unemployment statistics too.  Housing market in Chicago NEVER recovered either. I sold my home at a 15% loss nine years after the 2008 crisis.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

...many countries have road maps to deal with the current situation....

I personally don't give a flying f*ck what other countries are doing. But setting aside my personal views, if that would be so, than why are all international institutions and institutes saying this is going to be a recession worse than the Great Depression in the '30s? IMF, United Nations, World Bank, The Economist, etc.

There is this gleeful view that some, e.g., Canadians. are presenting that their mighty government is going to take care of everything... postpone your rent, mortgage, pay for this pay for that... Where do you thing that money comes from? Grows on trees? Reduced economic activity means less goods produced, and less taxes for the government. The gap will be filled with printed money.Too much money chasing too few goods, isn't that a classical definition of inflation?

When the history of the 21st century is written, the global lockdown will be seen as the most idiotic collective measure the mankind has ever undertaken.

[Alan Klein]

Well propert taxes have been deferred, banks are deferring mortgages and there is government help for your rental payments. There is even government help of 75% of staff salary to help small businesses keep their employees. Like I said I don't see or hear of anyone not getting food on their tables.

Alan, do you have any concrete proof of US citizens not being able to be fed? You always throw out these "sky is falling" scenarios but is there any substance behind your hysteria?

Well, personally, I haven't had an ice cream cone or slice of pizza in weeks.

[Alan Klein]

Talking to you indeed feels like groundhog day... for the umpteenth time: many countries have road maps to deal with the current situation. Broadly speaking, phase 1 was tackling the health situation, implementing measures to break infection chains, and avoiding health services rupturing. Phase 2 is once the curve comes down,reopen economy carefully. Portugal has been in this pahse for 1 week, other countries are more advanced, others behind. Depending on individual characteristics and onset of infection. Germany and Spain, for example, have explained their several phases. All it takes is some reading and watching the news to gather this.

In the meantime, many countries have put in place financial measures to reduce the impact of the quarantines, subsidizing companies that had to shutdown momentarily, via lay off schemes, etc. Unemployment in Portugal in 2020 will rise, and the deficit will be around 7% of GDP. This is bad, of course, but there are measures in place to tackle that - for example, many volunteers are distributing food to those who need the most, thisat a local/neighbourhood level. Portuguese are very united and good when the need arises. Many similar examples are coming from several countries too. Solidarity works. Everybody recognizes that it was very important to save lives in the first phase of this fight, and we did that while saving the essential of the economy.

As for taxi drivers, they are doing fine, of course they saw reduced business, but things are coming back to life.

Well, glad to hear that.  Smooth sailing ahead. 

[JoeKitchen]

Well propert taxes have been deferred, banks are deferring mortgages and there is government help for your rental payments. There is even government help of 75% of staff salary to help small businesses keep their employees. Like I said I don't see or hear of anyone not getting food on their tables.

Alan, do you have any concrete proof of US citizens not being able to be fed? You always throw out these "sky is falling" scenarios but is there any substance behind your hysteria?

A liberal friend of mine the other day insisted that it was wrong for Nunes to insist that the meat processing plants stay open.  Now, certainly, the way in which Nunes said it was moronic, but we have people that are simultaneously suggesting that we shut down all industries, including the food chain, over this and then insist it will not be a big deal because government will take care it for us, somehow.  When I pressed the issue of where will we get our food when what is currently in stock runs out in 2 or 3 days, he did not have an answer. 

This is the kind of idiotic arguments the left is making in this country, and if it were to come to fruition, we would have a food shortage. 

We are not pulling these predictions out of our asses, just arriving at the natural conclusions of what the other side is suggesting. 

Another friend of mine, who I might add is pretty damn smart, an economist who works in public policy, said all we need to to is stay inside for 30 days, not leaving for any reason, and this would just die.  One problem, food, again.  How do you suddenly provide every person with 30 days worth of food? 

You cant.  Our system is just not designed to do so.  These are ideas I am seeing, devoid of common sense, and it is just making my head shake. 

[Alan Klein]

A liberal friend of mine the other day insisted that it was wrong for Nunes to insist that the meat processing plants stay open.  Now, certainly, the way in which Nunes said it was moronic, but we have people that are simultaneously suggesting that we shut down all industries, including the food chain, over this and then insist it will not be a big deal because government will take care it for us.  When I pressed the issue of where will we get our food when what is currently in stock runs out in 2 or 3 days, he did not have an answer. 

This is the kind of idiotic arguments the left is making in this country, and if it were to come to fruition, we would have a food shortage. 

We are not pulling these predictions out of our asses, just arriving at the natural conclusions of what the other side is suggesting. 

The left wants the economy to fail so they can rebuild it in their socialist dream. The democrats want the economy to falter to help them gain power in the November election.  Both the Democrats and Republicans support more printing and debt because they all want to win the election.  Unfortunately, all politicians are staying up nights trying to figure how to save their asses. Because there are no easy answers, they try to take the middle ground and then conflict and change their minds day to day depending on which way the political wind is blowing on that day.  Politicians are more afraid of the electorate then the virus. People sense that.  They see their indecisiveness and confusion.  They know as little as the average guy on the street.  Experts?  Give me a break.  It's why regular people are going to make personal decisions about what to do.  Damn the torpedoes and politicians and keep sailing. 

[Craig Lamson]

If you are a small business owner, you do not get unemployment benefits (UB). If you are an individual contractor, you do not get UB. if you are part-time worker, you do not get UB. Gig economy is much larger than it appears.

This isn't just about food and going hungry. Careers, and consequently, lives will be ruined forever. Millions who lost their jobs in the 2008 recession NEVER recovered, never found another similar job, or any job. Once you are six months out of job, you are considered a long-term unemployed, which nobody wants to hire. You stop looking for job, and then you drop out of unemployment statistics too.  Housing market in Chicago NEVER recovered either. I sold my home at a 15% loss nine years after the 2008 crisis.

The government program includes gig and self employed @$600 plus some state money. 

But you are correct many small businesses will fail and never come back.  2008 killed me, and we had to close our studio, and basically lost our shirts.  I was lucky I kept enough gear to start doing location only and the market came back with that business model.  Of course prices fell through the floor, with ours falling by substantially.  We had to create a new prroduction process based on needing to shoot a full unit in a day instead of 2-3 days in our studio.  But the upside is that without the massive overhead of a huge building and really no overhead working from home, I'm working less and netting far more.  So a win win in the end.

As far as finding a job in that timeframe...next to impossible for a 50 something.  Lots of photo jobs listed for digital marketplace product work but they wanted nothing to do with me.  I cant really blame them, I cost more that a 25 year old and the one company that did test and interview me flat out told me I knew too much and would never stay longer that it took to get my own shop back and running.  They were right

It's going to be really ugly for service type workers displaced by closed businesses.
 

[Craig Lamson]

Well, personally, I haven't had an ice cream cone or slice of pizza in weeks.

We had Boston coolers from our local ice cream stand last weekend...Yummy!  Pizza is in the freezer:)