PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[faberryman]

I'm sorry you don't agree with my views.  That's what makes a horse race.

Usually the slow horses don't race.

[Alan Klein]

Not really. People don't eat much pork. I can't remember the last time I ate pork. It's been years. The extra demand for other meats to substitute for pork will be negligible, and won't have any effect on supply or price. Nobody substitutes seafood for pork either. If you want a hot dog, a lobster roll isn't going to cut it. Same way with vegetables. The brussel sprouts crop could be wiped out in a plague and no one would notice. And then maybe some people have encountered meat shortages, maybe they decide they don't miss meat all that much anyway and become vegetarians. Who knows, perhaps the demand for all meat goes down, those poor pork plant workers who got infected by COVID-19 won't have jobs to come back too, in which case they won't be eating meat anytime soon. Just beans and rice. It's a nice theory though.

What you stated here is antithetical to the laws of supply and demand.  When a product's supply goes down, it's price goes up if the demand is constant,  If that product becomes totally unavailable or it's supply decreases, people will go to substitutes and drive those prices up because the demand is now greater on those items,  Even though you don't eat pork, if you eat chicken then the price of chicken will go up for you because pork eaters will have to start eating more chicken.

The worst thing that's going to happen is the value of the dollar is going to collapse.  All that printing is making its supply too high compared to the country's production.  All that money chasing less goods will force the price of goods higher.  A cheapened dollar will buy less making your salary and savings and my social security and pension worth less.Soon you won't be able to afford pork or even chicken.  Print out some prices off the web.  Then compare prices a year from now.  You'll see why your money isn't going so far anymore.  On top of that, they'll have to raise local, state and federal taxes to pay for higher costs the government has to pay for its purchase and expenses.  Property taxes and sales taxes will go up as well.  VAT taxes if those are applicable where people live will go up too.  So you'll have a double whammy.  Lower currency value and less take home pay.  Better stock up on film now.  Heck, they'll be plenty of room in your freezer to store it  .

[Alan Klein]

But the processing and distribution have not been locked down...just the plants because of infections. I still don't see how the lock down is causing any direct affect on the processing and / or distribution of goods. Can you elaborate here...I still see one hell of a lot of transport trucks on the highways.

Duh.  If the plants are shut down, there's nothing to process.  There's nothing to distribute.  There's nothing to buy. 

[chez]

Duh.  If the plants are shut down, there's nothing to process.  There's nothing to distribute.  There's nothing to buy.

But the plants are shut down because of the people being either infected or scared away...they are not shut down because of the lock down. They are essential services and have been working like normal this whole time until the virus got the people. Them being shut down has zero to do with the lock down.

So the plants being shut down because of virus outbreaks might be a preview of businesses if they open up to early and all their workers either get infected or scared away. Bottom line, business will not be like before.

[Alan Klein]

I love a good fall from grace story.  The Dems are screwed, and you did it to yourself. 

New York cancels presidential primary, citing coronavirus, after Sanders camp asked to stay on ballot

FYI, only the presidential primary is cancelled.  All other primary elections are still schedule to take place that day, so make you wonder if it was really about the coronavirus. 

Talking about creating an opportunity for Trump to court Bernie voters.  Was it 15% of Bernie Bros voted for Trump last time just out of spite? 

If enough states cancel their primaries, like NY's Gov Cuomo just did, the Democratic National Committee will have an excuse to throw out the entire vote because no one got a majority including Biden.  At the convention, they could substitute weak candidate Biden for another stronger candidate, one that has a better chance of beating Trump. Maybe NY's Gov Cuomo. 

The Democrats want power.  They will push Sanders or Biden or whoever they have to onto their sword to get it.  They have no intention of losing the presidential election.  Add to the mix Cuomo long-time itch to be president.  This is a chess move on his part.   

[John Camp]

Not really. People don't eat much pork. I can't remember the last time I ate pork. It's been years. The extra demand for other meats to substitute for pork will be negligible, and won't have any effect on supply or price. Nobody substitutes seafood for pork either. If you want a hot dog, a lobster roll isn't going to cut it. Same way with vegetables. The brussel sprouts crop could be wiped out in a plague and no one would notice. And then maybe some people have encountered meat shortages, and they decide they don't miss meat all that much anyway, and become vegetarians, or even just adopt meatless Mondays. Who knows, perhaps the demand for all meat goes down. Those poor pork plant workers who got infected by COVID-19 won't have jobs to come back too, in which case they won't be eating meat anytime soon. Just beans and rice. Beans and rice. It's a nice theory though.

You may not eat much pork, but other people do. The per capita pork consumption in the US was something like 51 pounds per capita in 2019. That's a pound a week per person.

[Alan Klein]

But the plants are shut down because of the people being either infected or scared away...they are not shut down because of the lock down. They are essential services and have been working like normal this whole time until the virus got the people. Them being shut down has zero to do with the lock down.

So the plants being shut down because of virus outbreaks might be a preview of businesses if they open up to early and all their workers either get infected or scared away. Bottom line, business will not be like before.

I think you agreed with me. 

[John Camp]

If enough states cancel their primaries, like NY's Gov Cuomo just did, the Democratic National Committee will have an excuse to throw out the entire vote because no one got a majority including Biden.  At the convention, they could substitute weak candidate Biden for another stronger candidate, one that has a better chance of beating Trump. Maybe NY's Gov Cuomo. 

The Democrats want power.  They will push Sanders or Biden or whoever they have to onto their sword to get it.  They have no intention of losing the presidential election.  Add to the mix Cuomo long-time itch to be president.  This is a chess move on his part.

It wasn't cancelled by Cuomo. It was cancelled by the Democratic commissioners on the state board of elections. According to Cuomo, who apparently approved of the move, the primary had become a "beauty contest" that the state couldn't afford, given the disastrous drop in revenues brought by the pandemic. There were no primaries other than the presidential in 20 NY counties, so there will be no election at all in those counties, saving lots of money. But, according to the New York Times, the Sanders people wanted the primary because they'd get a few more delegates to the convention, though not nearly enough to win, and thus perhaps be able to more effectively influence the platform. So, there was a power play here, I'm sure, and the Sanders people lost. So, you got a choice: should the primary be held for the purpose of allowing the Sanders people, who had no chance of winning the nomination, more leverage; or should it have been cancelled to save money?

[Alan Klein]

If enough states cancel their primaries, like NY's Gov Cuomo just did, the Democratic National Committee will have an excuse to throw out the entire vote because no one got a majority including Biden.  At the convention, they could substitute weak candidate Biden for another stronger candidate, one that has a better chance of beating Trump. Maybe NY's Gov Cuomo. 

The Democrats want power.  They will push Sanders or Biden or whoever they have to onto their sword to get it.  They have no intention of losing the presidential election.  Add to the mix Cuomo long-time itch to be president.  This is a chess move on his part.   

I meant to say they would substitute a stronger candidate for weak candidate Biden.

[John Camp]

If enough states cancel their primaries, like NY's Gov Cuomo just did, the Democratic National Committee will have an excuse to throw out the entire vote because no one got a majority including Biden.  At the convention, they could substitute weak candidate Biden for another stronger candidate, one that has a better chance of beating Trump. Maybe NY's Gov Cuomo. 

The Democrats want power.  They will push Sanders or Biden or whoever they have to onto their sword to get it.  They have no intention of losing the presidential election.  Add to the mix Cuomo long-time itch to be president.  This is a chess move on his part.

This is basically a fantasy. Unless he has an obvious health problem, Biden will get the nomination. If he doesn't get it, it'll be a woman -- very likely Whitmer or Klobuchar. You could even see a two-woman ticket, Whitmer and Harris. Many, many Democrats dislike and distrust Cuomo.

[Alan Klein]

It wasn't cancelled by Cuomo. It was cancelled by the Democratic commissioners on the state board of elections. According to Cuomo, who apparently approved of the move, the primary had become a "beauty contest" that the state couldn't afford, given the disastrous drop in revenues brought by the pandemic. There were no primaries other than the presidential in 20 NY counties, so there will be no election at all in those counties, saving lots of money. But, according to the New York Times, the Sanders people wanted the primary because they'd get a few more delegates to the convention, though not nearly enough to win, and thus perhaps be able to more effectively influence the platform. So, there was a power play here, I'm sure, and the Sanders people lost. So, you got a choice: should the primary be held for the purpose of allowing the Sanders people, who had no chance of winning the nomination, more leverage; or should it have been cancelled to save money?

But as I said earlier, there are greater stakes then Sanders.  Biden needs a majority vote to win the primary and be the presidential candidate.  If enough states cancel the primaries, he will not have a majority vote going into the convention.  That was what the whole debate was before with the number of candidates running.  So we're back to that again.  Regardless of why Biden doesn't get the majority, it leaves the convention to vote for another person and an opportunity to select someone who has a better chance of beating Trump. 

I may be the first person saying this.  But watch the news over the next couple of days.  It's going to become the discussion of the day, even more than about Trump for a change. 

[JoeKitchen]

If enough states cancel their primaries, like NY's Gov Cuomo just did, the Democratic National Committee will have an excuse to throw out the entire vote because no one got a majority including Biden.  At the convention, they could substitute weak candidate Biden for another stronger candidate, one that has a better chance of beating Trump. Maybe NY's Gov Cuomo. 

The Democrats want power.  They will push Sanders or Biden or whoever they have to onto their sword to get it.  They have no intention of losing the presidential election.  Add to the mix Cuomo long-time itch to be president.  This is a chess move on his part.

Good point, but I feel doing that to get rid of Biden while looking over Bernie would cause full out war in the party.  It’s a very risky idea.

[faberryman]

What you stated here is antithetical to the laws of supply and demand.  When a product's supply goes down, it's price goes up if the demand is constant,  If that product becomes totally unavailable or it's supply decreases, people will go to substitutes and drive those prices up because the demand is now greater on those items,  Even though you don't eat pork, if you eat chicken then the price of chicken will go up for you because pork eaters will have to start eating more chicken.

Nope. Pork eaters don't have to eat chicken. They just may stop eating pork. So instead of pork chops on Monday, they go meatless or have vegetarian pizza. No effect on any other meats.

[Alan Klein]

This is basically a fantasy. Unless he has an obvious health problem, Biden will get the nomination. If he doesn't get it, it'll be a woman -- very likely Whitmer or Klobuchar. You could even see a two-woman ticket, Whitmer and Harris. Many, many Democrats dislike and distrust Cuomo.

OK, I agree about Cuomo.  He's a sleazy guy.  But his cancellation of NY primaries was the opening shot.  My point is valid.  They'll dump Biden under the bus in a New York heartbeat so the Dems can win the presidency.  They're not going to let sleepy Joe ruin it for them.  Watch Trump come out with a twitter saying that the Dems are now trying to take it away from Biden like they did Sanders.  This is going to become a free-for-all.  American politics is going to become really interesting this year. 

[Alan Klein]

Good point, but I feel doing that to get rid of Biden while looking over Bernie would cause full out war in the party.  It’s a very risky idea.

Joe, they've been reading your posts here and agree with you.  That's why they'll do it. 

[Alan Klein]

Nope. Pork eaters don't have to eat chicken. They just may stop eating pork. So instead of pork chops on Monday, they go meatless or have vegetarian pizza. No effect on any other meats.

Sure.  Vegetarian pizza with meat balls on top.

[Chris Kern]

Yet again, Alan, you make a bold statement and, when challenged, side-step. It's impossible to avoid the impression that you sit indulging your compulsion to post, writing the first thing that comes into your head neither knowing nor, more worryingly, caring whether or not it's true. You do it so often that when you make a valid point, which happens from time to time, it's drowned by the noise.

Those are classic symptoms of a TRUMP-16 infection.

[faberryman]

OK, I agree about Cuomo.  He's a sleazy guy.

Perhaps for some voters in New York. The rest of the country knows nothing about him.

But his cancellation of NY primaries was the opening shot.

Or maybe it was because the primaries are pointless and expensive.

My point is valid.

Not sure anyone knows what your point is.

  They'll dump Biden under the bus in a New York heartbeat so the Dems can win the presidency.  They're not going to let sleepy Joe ruin it for them.

Who is "they"?

Watch Trump come out with a twitter saying that the Dems are now trying to take it away from Biden like they did Sanders.

Trump tweets so much shit no one can keep up with it. It is just background noise.

This is going to become a free-for-all.

Nope.

American politics is going to become really interesting this year.

Nope.

[John Camp]

OK, I agree about Cuomo.  He's a sleazy guy.  But his cancellation of NY primaries was the opening shot.  My point is valid.  They'll dump Biden under the bus in a New York heartbeat so the Dems can win the presidency.  They're not going to let sleepy Joe ruin it for them.  Watch Trump come out with a twitter saying that the Dems are now trying to take it away from Biden like they did Sanders.  This is going to become a free-for-all.  American politics is going to become really interesting this year.

You seem to be assuming the Dems don't think Biden will win. The whole reason he won the primaries was the assumption that he CAN win, and I think it's a good assumption. He's leading in Florida, and Trump can't win without Florida. He's leading in Pennsylvania (where he was born) and in Michigan, and if he wins those two, even without Florida, he wins, as long as he holds Minnesota, where he's leading by 10 points. He's almost certain to win the actual vote count, because he'll win the Blue states by huge margins, while, if Trump wins, it'll be purely on the basis of the Electoral College, and he'll win the critical states there by small margins. So, even if he wins, which I think is unlikely but possible, Trump will again be an illegitimate President, the choice of a minority of Americans.

[faberryman]

I may be the first person saying this.  But watch the news over the next couple of days.  It's going to become the discussion of the day, even more than about Trump for a change.

You are not saying anything new. This is the same discussion that has been going on for months.