PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[chez]

No one will be going back to a lockdown once it re-opens.  I for one have had it, so have many others. 

Like I said before, I would be first in line to catch this if it meant I would not have to follow all this stupid shit.  I'd take that chance.  To live like a pussy afraid of living, no thanks.

Then why are you hiding and not joining arm in arm with the rest of the Covidiots out there. Much higher chance getting the virus if you venture out of your home.

More talk I guess.

[Alan Klein]

Would you support US military strikes against China?

No.  But I think the whole world should re-consider it's relations with China.  They're a bad actor and they're going to get worse as their power increases. 

[elliot_n]

And all the talk that the food supply chains would be okay with a lockdown.  Oops! 

'Food supply chain is breaking,' Tyson Foods chairman says as processing plants continue to close

It is the virus that is closing meat processing plants, not the lockdown.

[chez]

And all the talk that the food supply chains would be okay with a lockdown.  Oops! 

'Food supply chain is breaking,' Tyson Foods chairman says as processing plants continue to close

Well let's not forget all the meat processing plants closing because everyone either got the virus or got scared and are staying away.

[JoeKitchen]

Then why are you hiding and not joining arm in arm with the rest of the Covidiots out there. Much higher chance getting the virus if you venture out of your home.

More talk I guess.

I was out taking pics last week Chez, without a mask. 

I'm not driving to Harisburg, shit town USA.  When a protest happens in Philly, I'll be there. 

[Alan Klein]

From what I can work out, early response, clear messaging from leadership, early social distancing measures (early lockdown), and responsible citizens are the key factors.

I know Joe's other "theory" is population density - this does not seem to be as important as the above-mentioned factors however. The graph shows the countries with populations over 5,000,000 and I chose them because a few of them were mentioned and a few others I thought were interesting. From left - Taiwan has the highest density of people per square kilometre and Australia - on the right with the least density.(The blue line). The green bars are deaths per million.

Denmark, Taiwan, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Israel, Australia, and South Korea all appear to have been quick off the mark - the rest speak for themselves, I think.

The island nations, it could be argued, might be easier to isolate like OZ and New Zealand who have done well.... Taiwan seems to have been similar to South Korea in that their close proximity to China made them far more aware of viruses and thus far better prepared.

South Africa, as I have said before acted very quickly and pretty strictly too with the lockdown (including the prohibition of liquor sales!!).

Once again, I am open to criticism regarding my methods.

Bill, there's nothing wrong with your analysis.  The problem is trying to assign blame to leaders who did it one way and not the other.  A lot of luck was involved because no one had advanced knowledge which methods are best, how bad it would be, and many other factors.  We're faced with a similar situation on re-opening the economy.  In America, we have 50 states each with their own plan.  Fifty different experiments.  Similarly, each nation will follow their own plans.  Does anyone really know how each case is going to work out?  We all got our fingers crossed hoping it works out for the best. A few weeks from now, maybe sooner, we'll get an inkling of which is best and which is worse.  Some will be castigated for acting too daringly or maybe too cautiously.  But we'll learn a lot.  Even then, we won't know for sure.  After all, if it comes back next year, countries like Sweden and others who were less restrictive causing more infections in their communities might turn out better over the long term.  It's all a crapshoot. 

[chez]

I was out taking pics last week Chez, without a mask. 

I'm driving to Harisburg, shit town USA.  When a protest happens in Philly, I'll be there.

That a boy. Hope you make the news. Let us all know what mask you'll be wearing and what gun you'll be carrying. Something like the guy of the left here looks appropriate.

[JoeKitchen]

That a boy. Hope you make the news. Let us all know what mask you'll be wearing and what gun you'll be carrying. Something like the guy of the left here looks appropriate.

I got a purple scarf I'll be using. 

[chez]

And all the talk that the food supply chains would be okay with a lockdown.  Oops! 

'Food supply chain is breaking,' Tyson Foods chairman says as processing plants continue to close

Also wasn't food processing and distribution labeled an essential service so they were full steam ahead as far as operations. How does the lockdown have anything to do with affecting supply chains.

My son is a purchaser at a local grocery chain ( 6 stores ) and he says there is no supply chain issues, but more a demand issue for specific items caused by irrational purchasing ( toilet paper, yeast etc... )

[chez]

I got a purple scarf I'll be using.

Why the scarf...I thought you want to get infected and just get this thing over with.

[JoeKitchen]

Why the scarf...I thought you want to get infected and just get this thing over with.

You brought it up, didn't you? 

[faberryman]

Charts are graphic or pictorial representations of statistics.

Not necessarily; just data points. Paulo's chart was a simple chart with X,Y coordinates.  You don't need a statistics course to interpret it. You make X,Y graphs beginning sometime in elementary school.

[faberryman]

In America, we have 50 states each with their own plan.  Fifty different experiments.

Not really. The ones I have seen are all pretty much the same.

[Alan Klein]

Also wasn't food processing and distribution labeled an essential service so they were full steam ahead as far as operations. How does the lockdown have anything to do with affecting supply chains.

My son is a purchaser at a local grocery chain ( 6 stores ) and he says there is no supply chain issues, but more a demand issue for specific items caused by irrational purchasing ( toilet paper, yeast etc... )

Some plants have shut down.  So distribution doesn't matter in those cases.  Nothing to distribute.  The largest pork processing plants have shut down in America.  So not only will pork be hard to get.  Demand for other meat products such as beef as well as fish products and seafood and chicken will go up cause shortages for them too. I would think that there's some interference in supply chains as well depending on country and location.  When you lock things down, in interferes with normal commerce, manufacturing, distribution, etc. 

Maybe your son's area hasn't been effected yet.  I know as an end user I'm having trouble buying stuff here in NJ.  Either stuff isn't available.  Or their prices have shot up.     

[Alan Klein]

Not really. The ones I have seen are all pretty much the same.

If you drill down to the methods, you will see different dates of opening-up, for different businesses, with different safety measures, etc.  Each state has different population densities, different geographical sizes, different weather, etc. No one state is exactly like another.  Every factor is going to effect things to a larger or smaller degree. I'm sure someone will publish a list sowing all the differences at some point so we can compare.  The interesting thing is a month or two from now, we have the results.  Then we can analyze the data to see which methods work best. 

[faberryman]

Some plants have shut down.  So distribution doesn't matter in those cases.  Nothing to distribute.  The largest pork processing plants have shut down in America.  So not only will pork be hard to get.  Demand for other meat products such as beef as well as fish products and seafood and chicken will go up cause shortages for them too.

Not really. People don't eat much pork. I can't remember the last time I ate pork. It's been years. The extra demand for other meats to substitute for pork will be negligible, and won't have any effect on supply or price. Nobody substitutes seafood for pork either. If you want a hot dog, a lobster roll isn't going to cut it. Same way with vegetables. The brussel sprouts crop could be wiped out in a plague and no one would notice. And then maybe some people have encountered meat shortages, and they decide they don't miss meat all that much anyway, and become vegetarians, or even just adopt meatless Mondays. Who knows, perhaps the demand for all meat goes down. Those poor pork plant workers who got infected by COVID-19 won't have jobs to come back too, in which case they won't be eating meat anytime soon. Just beans and rice. Beans and rice. It's a nice theory though.

[chez]

Some plants have shut down.  So distribution doesn't matter in those cases.  Nothing to distribute.  The largest pork processing plants have shut down in America.  So not only will pork be hard to get.  Demand for other meat products such as beef as well as fish products and seafood and chicken will go up cause shortages for them too. I would think that there's some interference in supply chains as well depending on country and location.  When you lock things down, in interferes with normal commerce, manufacturing, distribution, etc. 

Maybe your son's area hasn't been effected yet.  I know as an end user I'm having trouble buying stuff here in NJ.  Either stuff isn't available.  Or their prices have shot up.   

But the processing and distribution have not been locked down...just the plants because of infections. I still don't see how the lock down is causing any direct affect on the processing and / or distribution of goods. Can you elaborate here...I still see one hell of a lot of transport trucks on the highways.

[Jeremy Roussak]

Trump speaks as I just did in the vernacular.  Most laymen don't know what's in chemo.  Sounds like scarey stuff.  And it is matter of fact.  People get awful sick when they're on it and it damages other parts of the body bedside the cancer cells.  It can kill.  After all, isn't it some kind of nuclear stuff? 

No, it isn't.

Yet again, Alan, you make a bold statement and, when challenged, side-step. It's impossible to avoid the impression that you sit indulging your compulsion to post, writing the first thing that comes into your head neither knowing nor, more worryingly, caring whether or not it's true. You do it so often that when you make a valid point, which happens from time to time, it's drowned by the noise.

Think before you type; if you can't manage that, think before you click "Post".

Jeremy

[JoeKitchen]

I love a good fall from grace story.  The Dems are screwed, and you did it to yourself. 

New York cancels presidential primary, citing coronavirus, after Sanders camp asked to stay on ballot

FYI, only the presidential primary is cancelled.  All other primary elections are still schedule to take place that day, so make you wonder if it was really about the coronavirus. 

Talking about creating an opportunity for Trump to court Bernie voters.  Was it 15% of Bernie Bros voted for Trump last time just out of spite? 

[Alan Klein]

No, it isn't.

Yet again, Alan, you make a bold statement and, when challenged, side-step. It's impossible to avoid the impression that you sit indulging your compulsion to post, writing the first thing that comes into your head neither knowing nor, more worryingly, caring whether or not it's true. You do it so often that when you make a valid point, which happens from time to time, it's drowned by the noise.

Think before you type; if you can't manage that, think before you click "Post".

Jeremy

I'm sorry you don't agree with my views.  That's what makes a horse race.