Yes, you and Ferguson are in agreement here. His model uses an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.9%.
99.1% of those infected will survive.
His 2.2 million predicted US deaths comes from taking that 0.9% fatality rate and applying it to 80% (herd immunity) of the population (325 million). It's not rocket science.
The complexity comes in the modelling of the various interventions. I'm happy to be corrected on this, but so far his predictions for the UK are in the ballpark.
(I've no idea why he made predictions for the US, and I don't understand why you guys listened to him. Don't you have your own modellers?)
First, I did not use an
infection fatality rate of 0.9%. We actually dont know the
infection fatality rate yet, but it is much less then our current
case fatality rate. I posted a graph showing that, depending on age, the
case fatality rate was 0% to 20%. Meaning that if you are below 50, you will survive with extremely few exceptions (much like driving in a car, you will survive). So, protect the old and let everyone else out to continuing working and keeping the economy going is what I am advocating for.
Second, assuming 80% of the population will get this is not scientific and not supported by past events. Only 28% caught the Spanish Flu before it died out. The infection rate is even lower for other past events. To assume 80% will catch this is a gross mistake.
I have yet to see any data showing his original model is accurate in the UK. FYI, even in the UK, most concentrated on his do nothing model, which at the time most countries were no longer in a do nothing mode. However, as I said before, the best case against his models is Sweden. Using his model for Sweden has shown how off it is.
Last, yes, we have our own modelers. However, the "if it bleeds it leads" mantra of the press over here hyped up the worse case scenario (which his was) more then likely just for more clicks and ratings.
I think Newt Gingrich put it best when he wrote this lock down is the result of our modern hysteria brought on by social media and online activity. In a less connected world, I feel our response would have been like in past events with, perhaps, only slightly more loss of life albeit with much less economic damage. There is a price for having access to too much information as well.
