PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[JoeKitchen]

I believe it's pretty certain that his forecast was very close.

We are today at 250,000 official fatalities, which most studies assess is underestimated by 50%, so closer to 500,000 and odds are that at least one third more is still to come. So it is going to end not that far from 1 million.

That is with a pretty strict lock down that studies indicate decreased the number of fatalities by a factor of 5 meaning up to 5 million would have died without a lock down.

His forecast was probably conservative.

Regards,
Bernard

LOL

Yep, we are so close to at least 1.1M dead in the USA, by itself, and up to 2.2M in the USA, by itself.  We're at 71K right now btw. 

LOL

Keep on shining that turd Bernard. 

LOL

You would have to be out of your mind to take his model seriously especially after seeing all of his failed predictions in the past and by how much he was off by.  You, like so many other politiicians, are just trying so desperately to save face it is amazing. 

Just admit you were wrong Bernard.  Eventually we will be able to prove it by looking at Sweden. 

It is amazing how the Dems have become the party of bad science.  All of the failed climate change predictions, which Ferguson also worked on, should have warned us how bad this model was bound to be as well. 

FYI, insofar as your lock down predictions preventing deaths, that is not shown to be the case in the USA.  There is no correlation to lock downs and death count.  FL essentially did not lock down and they are doing just fine.  But keep on ignoring the data if it suits you. 

Bad science is what is responsible for this pointless lock down. 

[JoeKitchen]

Some of Ferguson's past work and how much he was off by. 

“Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die.

“In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

“In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

“In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.”

He did not deserve to be take seriously given this record.

FYI, going back to your lock downs saved the world theory, we had no serious lock downs with Swine Flu and the numbers did not even come close to what he predicted. 

[Craig Lamson]

Some of Ferguson's past work and how much he was off by. 

“Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die.

“In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

“In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

“In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.”

He did not deserve to be take seriously given this record.

FYI, going back to your lock downs saved the world theory, we had no serious lock downs with Swine Flu and the numbers did not even come close to what he predicted.

Here you go Joe, a review of Fergusons code.  I know nothing about software other than using it so I have no comment on the article.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

[JoeKitchen]

Here you go Joe, a review of Fergusons code.  I know nothing about software other than using it so I have no comment on the article.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

Key part right here. 

Due to bugs, the code can produce very different results given identical inputs. They routinely act as if this is unimportant.

This problem makes the code unusable for scientific purposes, given that a key part of the scientific method is the ability to replicate results. Without replication, the findings might not be real at all – as the field of psychology has been finding out to its cost. Even if their original code was released, it’s apparent that the same numbers as in Report 9 might not come out of it.

...
Clearly, the documentation wants us to think that, given a starting seed, the model will always produce the same results.

Investigation reveals the truth: the code produces critically different results, even for identical starting seeds and parameters.

[Conclusion] Imperial are trying to have their cake and eat it.  Reports of random results are dismissed with responses like “that’s not a problem, just run it a lot of times and take the average”, but at the same time, they’re fixing such bugs when they find them. They know their code can’t withstand scrutiny, so they hid it until professionals had a chance to fix it, but the damage from over a decade of amateur hobby programming is so extensive that even Microsoft were unable to make it run right.

Essentially this was a put together by a bunch of people who dont understand computer science and coding as much as they would like us to believe.  Note that Microsoft could not even alter the code to work properly because it was so poorly written.  Yet Bernard feels it is perfectly fine to use. 

[JoeKitchen]

‘Professor Lockdown’ Modeler Resigns in Disgrace

My favorite part of the above article, "Jay Schnitzer, an expert in vascular biology and a former scientific director of the Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center in San Diego, tells me: “I’m normally reluctant to say this about a scientist, but he dances on the edge of being a publicity-seeking charlatan.”

Going back to Sweden,

Indeed, Ferguson’s Imperial College model has been proven wildly inaccurate. To cite just one example, it saw Sweden paying a huge price for no lockdown, with 40,000 COVID deaths by May 1, and 100,000 by June. Sweden now has 2,854 deaths and peaked two weeks ago. As Fraser Nelson, editor of Britain’s Spectator, notes: “Imperial College’s model is wrong by an order of magnitude.”

[Alan Klein]

Correction:

X-axis is number of days after 100th case.

If it goes back up steadily for days, in Portugal we revert to lockdown. Most countries in Europe are ready to do so. Germany, for example, says that if they have 50 new daily case per 100,000 people, will lockdown again.

Depending on the region where the infection rate goes up again, another possibility is to isolate only said region, city, or municipality.

Two plots from yesterday:

Top: number of deaths versus days after 10th death. Portugal is in black. USA still at top.

Bottom: 7 days average of number of cases versus number of days after 100th case. Portugal yesterday went up slightly, we had 480 new cases.

If you lock down a second time, no one will go out again after they open it up the second time.  The economy will sink as everyone will be full of fear.

[armand]

What's funny is some of you guys keep patting on your backs of how right you were when nobody said so, that you are smarter than the rest who are just "slower" because of their political inclinations. That should give you pause but it won't.

All these things were known, it's just a matter of priorities and how to do it right.
You have your simplistic approach, if you lock down the economy will crash and more people will die because of that so let's just go on things as usual and let it be open season. Some more scared will still want some social distancing, some being a key word and very difficult to pin down, if now a lot is not respected, imagine later. You don't have the facts and many times you don't know what you are talking about (but it's like flu, sure, same as a chipmunk and wolves are mammals too) yet you have your strong beliefs that are unshakable, and you follow your leader because he's right more than the others. I mean, if he says yes and no about the same thing, in the same day, he will be right most of the times.


Then there is a more nuanced approach. Of course we know that the lockdown is raising havoc in the economy and a lot of people are suffering, and that was clear from the beginning. Things is if you just open without control, in the end we think the result will be worse, and guess what, that's where the consensus is now from people who actually have some data. But no, you keep finding different distractions to prove your point while missing the forest from the trees: it's a hoax, it's like flu, panic porn, it's because of the democrats. What you are totally oblivious to is the fact that most countries do the same, thinking it's the best for their countries, not because they are trying to screw up Trump. Can the approach be adjusted? Sure, based on data and some small scale trial and error.

Unfortunately the containment part was missed in many places, now we are in mitigation. Whatever it will be done now, it will be bad. Opening the economy entirely, having a mix, or continue to lockdown, all will be bad. We don't have the data and the perspective to see which way things will probably go with each (I don't and neither have you), so I will trust what it's coming from a centralized source when based on their experts, all of them from various fields (see White House opening guidelines, similar to other countries) knowing it's still possible they will be off at some extent, it will be the best starting point.


What you advocate it's wishful thinking, based on wishful think and nothing more. I think you are acting like this more because of politics before anything else but that ship has sailed long time ago.

End of rant.

[Paulo Bizarro]

If you lock down a second time, no one will go out again after they open it up the second time.  The economy will sink as everyone will be full of fear.

Not quite. The key parameter to watch is Rt, which varies in Portugal by region, but in no region is above 1. This is the rate of transmission/infection on a daily basis, which can be computed. If a certain region reaches a value that is incompatible with health services response and/or poses the danger of wider spreading, such region is isolated by 2 weeks to 4 weeks, depending on the seriousness of the new outbreak.

In the meantime, the effect of a new outbreak will be less than the first, as some immunity has been happening for months now.

[JoeKitchen]

What's funny is some of you guys keep patting on your backs of how right you were when nobody said so, that you are smarter than the rest who are just "slower" because of their political inclinations. That should give you pause but it won't.

All these things were known, it's just a matter of priorities and how to do it right.
You have your simplistic approach, if you lock down the economy will crash and more people will die because of that so let's just go on things as usual and let it be open season. Some more scared will still want some social distancing, some being a key word and very difficult to pin down, if now a lot is not respected, imagine later. You don't have the facts and many times you don't know what you are talking about (but it's like flu, sure, same as a chipmunk and wolves are mammals too) yet you have your strong beliefs that are unshakable, and you follow your leader because he's right more than the others. I mean, if he says yes and no about the same thing, in the same day, he will be right most of the times.


Then there is a more nuanced approach. Of course we know that the lockdown is raising havoc in the economy and a lot of people are suffering, and that was clear from the beginning. Things is if you just open without control, in the end we think the result will be worse, and guess what, that's where the consensus is now from people who actually have some data. But no, you keep finding different distractions to prove your point while missing the forest from the trees: it's a hoax, it's like flu, panic porn, it's because of the democrats. What you are totally oblivious to is the fact that most countries do the same, thinking it's the best for their countries, not because they are trying to screw up Trump. Can the approach be adjusted? Sure, based on data and some small scale trial and error.

Unfortunately the containment part was missed in many places, now we are in mitigation. Whatever it will be done now, it will be bad. Opening the economy entirely, having a mix, or continue to lockdown, all will be bad. We don't have the data and the perspective to see which way things will probably go with each (I don't and neither have you), so I will trust what it's coming from a centralized source when based on their experts, all of them from various fields (see White House opening guidelines, similar to other countries) knowing it's still possible they will be off at some extent, it will be the best starting point.


What you advocate it's wishful thinking, based on wishful think and nothing more. I think you are acting like this more because of politics before anything else but that ship has sailed long time ago.

End of rant.

No, you are just denying that you have been wrong on the lock downs, like a classic intellectual. 

There is old story about how an intellectual was mapping a coast line based off of radar for 6 months.  He then finished his map, came to the surface to find a cliff where his map said there was a beach.  He then insisted that the beach was wrong instead of his map. 

The fact is you got so emotionally attached to your idea, it is hard for you to let it go.  I use to do the same thing on photo shoot.  I would plan my shoots out so well that if a better image suddenly presented itself the day of the shoot, I would ignore it and go to the one I planned.  I became too emotionally attached to my plans, and now just loosely plan my shoots. 

The modeler in question predicted 40K dead as of May 1st in  Sweden if they did not lock down.  Sweden did not lock down and they have around 3000 dead as of this morning.  He was far far off.  His models were bunk right from the beginning. 

On top of that, for weeks we have been told FL would fall into the abyss, and to just wait, just two weeks.  FL has not yet fallen into the abyss and it has been several weeks since this prediction was made. 

Now I don't blame the politicians for putting us down this road, but I do blame them for holding us here now that it is obviously wrong.  And FYI, social distancing is not the same thing as a lock down.  We can socially distance like Sweden but not destroy our economy. 

Like I said before, Ferguson has been grossly wrong in the past, that combined with us basing our locking down on his worse case scenario should be enough reason to lift the lock downs. 

Hospitals are literally going out of business due to the lock down in this pandemic.  Outside of NYC, nurses/doctors are being laid off due to lack of work.  Even the healthcare system, that was suppose to be over run (according to you) is failing now due to this lockdown.  Think of how this will effect the health of many, especially those in rural areas who are now living with a weakened healthcare system. 

It is time to cut our losses and open up. 

[JoeKitchen]

Sanity is returning!  Thank you Texas! 

Texas Supreme Court orders Dallas salon owner released as Abbott bans jailing citizens for lockdown violations

[elliot_n]

The modeler in question predicted 40K dead as of May 1st in  Sweden if they did not lock down.  Sweden did not lock down and they have around 3000 dead as of this morning.  He was far far off.  His models were bunk right from the beginning.   

I'm not sure what you're talking about. Ferguson made no predictions about Sweden.

[elliot_n]

On top of that, for weeks we have been told FL would fall into the abyss, and to just wait, just two weeks.  FL has not yet fallen into the abyss and it has been several weeks since this prediction was made. 

Cases in Florida were going down until 9 days ago. Since then, they have been going up.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Trump admin’s botched pandemic response detailed in whistleblower complaint
Ex-official alleges cronyism, says warnings about supply shortages were ignored.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/05/whistleblower-complaint-how-denial-cronyism-steered-trump-pandemic-response/

A new whistleblower complaint by a former US health official details how the Trump administration's COVID-19 response was hampered by cronyism and denial about the virus's severity. The 89-page complaint filed by Rick Bright, an immunology expert who led the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) until he says he was forced out of his position, provides an inside look at the Trump administration's approach to public health before and during the pandemic.

Interesting story, potentially damaging for Trump's reelection aspirations ...
His reaction will be important in that respect.

[JoeKitchen]

I'm not sure what you're talking about. Ferguson made no predictions about Sweden.

I looked into this further, and to add some clarity, the 40K number I provided came from using his same exact model applied to Sweden.  Ferguson did claim that his model could be applied to any country, so long as the inputs are changed to reflect the country.  So, even if he did not do it himself, these numbers are accurate to what he would have predicted if asked since the method used is exactly the same. 

In doing so, you get ~40K deaths by May 1st with ~100K deaths by June and a peak in mid-May if Sweden did not shut down. 

Real deaths by May 1st were around 2500 and the peak was in April. 

His model is bunk and should be treated as such.

Imperial College Model Applied to Sweden Yields Preposterous Results

[JoeKitchen]

Cases in Florida were going down until 9 days ago. Since then, they have been going up.

Let me know when the hospitals get over loaded (aka entering the abyss), which is the sole reason we were told for the lock down. 

[JoeKitchen]

Trump admin’s botched pandemic response detailed in whistleblower complaint
Ex-official alleges cronyism, says warnings about supply shortages were ignored.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/05/whistleblower-complaint-how-denial-cronyism-steered-trump-pandemic-response/
Interesting story, potentially damaging for Trump's reelection aspirations ...
His reaction will be important in that respect.

Him again? 

Politico investigated his first claim about being fired over him rejecting the use of hydroxychloroquine and found it to be a fabrication.  Below is a write up on his first claim that was found out to be total lie and that his reassignment was over a year in the making.  Essentially he was reassigned becuase he is a massive asshole that constantly was at odds with his bosses. 

Ousted vaccine expert battles with Trump team over his abrupt dismissal

Given this, I find anything he says to be suspect. 

[elliot_n]

Let me know when the hospitals get over loaded (aka entering the abyss), which is the sole reason we were told for the lock down. 

Sure, as that moment approaches you tighten up again.

That is the future — a loosening and then a tightening of social distancing measures. It's not simple, it's not binary, but that's how it is.

[JoeKitchen]

Sure, as that moment approaches you tighten up again.

That is the future — a loosening and then a tightening of social distancing measures. It's not simple, it's not binary, but that's how it is.

Let me just reiterate, I am okay with social distancing but not with a lock down of business. 

Not to mention I think this would happen naturally anyway.  Unlike what Armand would have us believe, most people are responsible and no country owns the market on responsible, plus people are not stupid and want to die.  People will just start doing this without having to be told. 

[Craig Lamson]

Cases in Florida were going down until 9 days ago. Since then, they have been going up.

More testing?

[elliot_n]

More testing?

I don't know. Could be.

But this is how it should look before you open up: