PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[JoeKitchen]

Well there are large population densities in both South Korea and China...yet with lock downs they've tamed the outbreaks. So there facts staring right at you that shows lock downs work.

What's your point?  If they worked so well, we would expect to see the same results all over, but we dont. 

In logic, and mathematics, you only need one counter example to disprove a statement. 

[JoeKitchen]

This is very evident by the people screwing the distancing and rushing to the beaches. I can just imagine if the lock downs were lifted...party time.

Just two more weeks, right, until the end of the world in FL. 

I'm still waiting, two more weeks, and then two weeks again if it does not come. 

[chez]

What's your point?  If they worked so well, we would expect to see the same results all over, but we dont. 

In logic, and mathematics, you only need one counter example to disprove a statement.

Well good thing we are not dealing with mathematics here, but real life situations. I see New Zealand also took strong lockdown procedures and testing and is now got the virus under control and is starting to open up. Enough examples emerging showing lockdown works.

[chez]

Just two more weeks, right, until the end of the world in FL. 

I'm still waiting, two more weeks, and then two weeks again if it does not come.

Well Joe, you have nothing else to do but wait. You’ve shown you are a pussy when it comes to action. Letting your Covidiot friends do all the protesting while you sit at home pecking away at your keyboard.

[Paulo Bizarro]

What's your point?  If they worked so well, we would expect to see the same results all over, but we dont. 

In logic, and mathematics, you only need one counter example to disprove a statement.

The point is time - it is very important to implement lockdown measures early in the spread of the infection. Once the virus is spreading in the community, lockdown takes more time to work, and needs to be more strict.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Go on boys, chew on this ...



Deaths per 100,000

Belgium   62
UK          31
Sweden   22
USA        17
Germany 7.1
Greece    1.3

Thanks for sharing this. Clearly, the countries that tested more per 100,000, plus implementing lockdown earlier, have avoided a tragedy in this first wave of the pandemics.

[Alan Klein]

As of yesterday, taken from the daily report on a Portuguese newspaper. On the top - 7 days average of cases versus number of days after 100th case. On the bottom - number of deaths per day, versus days after 10th death.

USA curve is the higher one on both plots, Portugal in black. It is clear that several countries could have acted sooner, based on the information available first from China, and then from Italy.

America has more people so naturally it's higher.  The curves are basically all the same with minor variations. What course on statistics have you taken?

Trying to convict the president which is what you're trying to do shows how political you are.  You care nothing about the Americans who died only how it plays out in the election. Thanks for your concern about us.

[faberryman]

America has more people so naturally it's higher.  The curves are basically all the same with minor variations. What course on statistics have you taken?

What does statistics have to do with reading a chart?

[Alan Klein]

The lockdowns save lives, but sadly they also cause deaths. Time to adjust the strategy.
Cancer treatments cancelled or postponed, hip and knee replacements not happening, dental surgeries deferred, domestic abuses on the rise, etc.
CBC reports that up to 100,000 surgeries in Canada are now in the queue. If just 3% of the waiting patients perish, that would exceed the C19 deaths. (2,500 at this time). And that's not taking into consideration the economic problems which no doubt will cause more deaths and hardships.
 
http://health.sunnybrook.ca/navigator/many-cancer-surgeries-have-been-delayed-by-the-covid-19-pandemic-what-will-this-mean-for-patients/
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/many-operating-rooms-are-empty-as-patients-wait-in-pain-after-surgeries-cancelled-1.4910699
https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2020/04/23/covid-19-hospital-surgeries-facing-massive-backlog/

Les, Some of us have been saying this for weeks and were pooh-poohed.  Unemployment kills, starvation kills, delayed medical treatment kills.  That why Trump has been trying to balance as have all leaders. It's why he didn't just shutdown America at the beginning. This is why virologists can't be the deciding force on what we do.  Leaders have to look at the big picture. This is not just a medical crisis but an economic one as well.  When the disease disappears, we all will be left with  a wrecked economy, maybe a depression.

I still think this was planned by CHina to become #1.  Or at a minimum, when they discovered an accident occured at their lab and it got out, they decided to allow the virus to go to the rest of the world as well as China figuring why let a crisis go to waste.  Since they were stuck with it, why not America?  Of course, I've been pooh poohed for this position as well. 

[elliot_n]

I still think this was planned by CHina to become #1.  Or at a minimum, when they discovered an accident occured at their lab and it got out, they decided to allow the virus to go to the rest of the world as well as China figuring why let a crisis go to waste.  Since they were stuck with it, why not America?  Of course, I've been pooh poohed for this position as well. 

Would you support US military strikes against China?

[Alan Klein]

All the data here is showing that there is no correlation between lock downs and stopping the spread Bernard.  On top of that, Sweden is a perfect counter example to your France study.  They are middle of road in terms of death rate. 

I'd be willing to bet in the second wave, they will fair much better then the rest of us due to their lack of a lockdown. 

What's going to happen, if we get a second wave, we lockdown again damaging the economy even more when the right move is to let it play out like Sweden is doing.  With States opening up, we'll soon see what's going to happen.  Everyone's guessing right now.

[William Walker]

From what I can work out, early response, clear messaging from leadership, early social distancing measures (early lockdown), and responsible citizens are the key factors.

I know Joe's other "theory" is population density - this does not seem to be as important as the above-mentioned factors however. The graph shows the countries with populations over 5,000,000 and I chose them because a few of them were mentioned and a few others I thought were interesting. From left - Taiwan has the highest density of people per square kilometre and Australia - on the right with the least density.(The blue line). The green bars are deaths per million.

Denmark, Taiwan, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Israel, Australia, and South Korea all appear to have been quick off the mark - the rest speak for themselves, I think.

The island nations, it could be argued, might be easier to isolate like OZ and New Zealand who have done well.... Taiwan seems to have been similar to South Korea in that their close proximity to China made them far more aware of viruses and thus far better prepared.

South Africa, as I have said before acted very quickly and pretty strictly too with the lockdown (including the prohibition of liquor sales!!).

Once again, I am open to criticism regarding my methods.

[Alan Klein]

Sweden's strategy is based on the good sense of its citizens. That's not going to work in America.

As Craig said upthread: 'I won't speak of other Nations but there is a real stubborn streak in many Americans and for lots of people here just said screw it, I'll do as I please.'

The Swedes aren't like that.

Yes they are.  They said "screw it" right from the beginning while the rest of the world was more restrictive and shut everything down.

[Alan Klein]

The death-toll in Sweden has started rising, with no clear slowdown AFAIK.

Herd immunity follows, hopefully for them.  We may learn a real lesson here.  So glad the Swedes tried something different.

[Alan Klein]

Go on boys, chew on this ...



Deaths per 100,000

Belgium   62
UK          31
Sweden   22
USA        17
Germany 7.1
Greece    1.3

If you excluded NYC, America would be down at number 2 where Switzerland is.  Of course, they may change as we open up.  All of these numbers and rates will change over time.  There's no perfect strategy, no way you can avoid all the carnage.

[JoeKitchen]

What's going to happen, if we get a second wave, we lockdown again damaging the economy even more when the right move is to let it play out like Sweden is doing.  With States opening up, we'll soon see what's going to happen.  Everyone's guessing right now.

No one will be going back to a lockdown once it re-opens.  I for one have had it, so have many others. 

Like I said before, I would be first in line to catch this if it meant I would not have to follow all this stupid shit.  I'd take that chance.  To live like a pussy afraid of living, no thanks. 

[Alan Klein]

Athens was, curiously, below the national average.
Athens / Greece imposed a total lockdown. Lockdown in the full sense of the word.
Will always be a source of amazement that such a naturally unruly country buckled down with barely a protest (apart from some priests) and the priest(s) and Mayor that thought they'd game the system ended up in court and subsequently cooled their heels in a prison cell which, for them, was a novel way to spend Easter.

Greeks took a look at Italy, saw the chaos that a partial lockdown created (many in Lombardy made a run for the South in the hours preceding the public announcement) and that, as we now know, exacerbated the problem.

The three biggest outbreaks accounted for 80% of the reported cases one of which was a refugee camp.

Going back to the UK, and after BoJo 's return all focus is now on the return to work but 'powers-to-be' say 
too early to let up now, time to press home our advantage and also time of maximum risk - unwilling to risk the gains made through social distancing.
Unsurprisingly, opinions divided on both sides of the political divide.

Also, FYI, Italy is going to start rolling back restrictions next Monday, the 4th.
Unconfirmed whispers say the lockdown will be lifted but all >60's will be still be subject to lockdown.

The 4th of May?  My date. 

[JoeKitchen]

And all the talk that the food supply chains would be okay with a lockdown.  Oops! 

'Food supply chain is breaking,' Tyson Foods chairman says as processing plants continue to close

[chez]

If you excluded NYC, America would be down at number 2 where Switzerland is.  Of course, they may change as we open up.  All of these numbers and rates will change over time.  There's no perfect strategy, no way you can avoid all the carnage.

But just about every country has their hot spots. If you exclude all these hot spots, there would not be a problem anywhere...but that only occurs in ferry tails. Reality is, New York happened and is still happening with places like Detroit also getting hit hard.

[Alan Klein]

What does statistics have to do with reading a chart?

Charts are graphic or pictorial representations of statistics. It's like a photo of the landscape rather than describing it in words.  A picture is worth a thousand words.