PLAYPEN: Covid-19 Everything Political

[faberryman]

It's not socialist.  As a matter of fact, the Swedish PM has repeatably ask Bernie to stop say they are socialist and have talk about how adopting market based solutions lead to their current prosperity.  You have some pretty bad information if you think this.

Hence the quotes.

[JoeKitchen]

Hence the quotes.

okay, okay 

[Alan Klein]

I thought there were programs in place to help people that lost their job to Covid. Is that not right?

The economy has tanked already and will sink under the waves.  You ain't seen nothing yet. Now, white collar workers are getting laid off, or getting reduced salaries with less work hours.  Law firms even with high paying jobs are laying off people.  It's not just waiters and bartenders.  Meanwhile in NYC, the mayor refuses to shut down the subway system telling the MTA who runs it to cut back on ridership.  Duh? The virus is being spread by the "A" Train.
"Take the A Train"  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cb2w2m1JmCY
Interesting how they made an MTV music video in 1943.  Nothing new and done pretty well.

[Alan Klein]

Technically, you are correct. But there are many glitches right now, given how overwhelmed the system is, which was never designed to withstand a total shutdown and 20-30 millions of unemployed. It is been reported that people are spending half a day on hold and still not able to get through. Not everyone is full-time employed. Many employed are in a gray area, temp work, or work without being registered, below the number of hours to qualify for a particular status. Then there is a gig economy (Uber, for instance). Many individual contractors. Etc., etc.

And even when people start getting their unemployment benefits, those are hardly enough to pay the bills. The whole system was never designed for an event like this. When you lose work, you were supposed to look for another, that's how the system is designed. At this moment, there is no point of looking for work when almost everything is shut down.

What about the elderly? While trying to save lives and protect the working, the government is also printing money.  The devaluation of currency due to inflation will wipe out many fixed income people who depend on Social Security and modest savings.  Interest rates are near 0, and every rise in price costs cannot be made up by ever reduced value of the savings.  There would be some increase in SS, but that never equals the actual inflation increases.  Older people who lost there jobs now, will never be able to retire and will be lucky to find employment again.  In the old days, we lived on farms and could go back to the land to depend on.  At least we could eat.  Modern economies don't work that way. 

Of course there are no simple answers.  Threading the needle between saving lives and saving economies are proving to be extremely difficult.  What makes the burden greater, is that we're so much in debt already, especially because we kicked the can down the road after the 2008 recession and printed more and went into further debt.  There's little room to maneuver this time except to print  ANd that's going to destroy the economy.  All the politicians are willing to sacrifice the economy just to get by the November election.  So maybe it will hit in 2021. But a disaster awaits us economically.     

[chez]

The economy has tanked already and will sink under the waves.  You ain't seen nothing yet. Now, white collar workers are getting laid off, or getting reduced salaries with less work hours.  Law firms even with high paying jobs are laying off people.  It's not just waiters and bartenders.  Meanwhile in NYC, the mayor refuses to shut down the subway system telling the MTA who runs it to cut back on ridership.  Duh? The virus is being spread by the "A" Train.
"Take the A Train"  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cb2w2m1JmCY
Interesting how they made an MTV music video in 1943.  Nothing new and done pretty well.

I guess we'll see how fast things get back to normal. This was an artificial crash of the economy, self induced. We have never had this before, at this rate anyway so I don't think anyone really knows how things will look next year. China is already starting up its factories. That pork plant that went down will start up on a dime.

I think the areas that will take longer to recover are things like tourism as people might remain sceptical for longer, discretionary items like photo equipment until people feel good about their financial situations.

But those waiters and bar tenders will all come back quickly as there will be a pent up demand to go out and eat / drink / socialize again.

I personally am not as pessimistic as you. I think we'll recover pretty quickly. Some things might change for ever...but maybe that's good as we need some changes in our lives once in a while.

In any case, I owe nothing to anyone, I'm still getting all the food I need, have a great house that I remodelled last year...so just awaiting things to open up. Hoping the national parks open up by August as I have won lottery tickets into a secluded place in Yoho park and want to spend time taking some landscape images.

[John Camp]

Yes John, I took a screenshot from Worldometer because Israel and Sweden were right next to each other and the differences in deaths was so stark. I was wondering what Israel was doing in comparison to Sweden. I looked it up and it appears as though they have some strict lockdown there, not the same as Sweden! Also similar size populations and, if I am not mistaken, Israel has a higher density of population which some folks think might have a bearing.

I spent fifteen summers working as a photographer on an archaeological dig in Israel, and have good friends there. In an exchange with a friend, he said that Jerusalem, at Passover, looked more like Yom Kippur -- the streets were empty, and there was heavy hush over the entire city. Virtually everybody is self-quarantining. This is a country with one of the best (government-run) medical services in the world. As for density, I don't know -- a lot of people still live in the countryside, on kibbutzes, which are like small towns. But, Tel Aviv is probably as dense as L.A. (it's not really a vertical city like NYC.) Jerusalem a little less dense, though most people live in apartments.

[Alan Klein]

My wife and I have a fair amount of liquidity, but we decided that since we are being forced to shut down and the 5th Amendment states that due compensation must be given if government seises your property, which they are doing in forcing us to shut down, that we would file for the new special independent contractor self employment.  It took me 3 hours to file a claim on the website. 

My wife, for some reason was incorrectly classified as getting her wages from an employer, instead of being self-employed, of which 1000s were mistakingly classified as.  So lots of glitches. 

BTW, this was put into law three weeks ago and it only became live yesterday. 

I think that's under the new PPP legislation.  That just went broke in two weeks. ($350 billion)  The congress is trying to pass more money for it.

[chez]

What about the elderly? While trying to save lives and protect the working, the government is also printing money.  The devaluation of currency due to inflation will wipe out many fixed income people who depend on Social Security and modest savings.  Interest rates are near 0, and every rise in price costs cannot be made up by ever reduced value of the savings.  There would be some increase in SS, but that never equals the actual inflation increases.  Older people who lost there jobs now, will never be able to retire and will be lucky to find employment again.  In the old days, we lived on farms and could go back to the land to depend on.  At least we could eat.  Modern economies don't work that way. 

Of course there are no simple answers.  Threading the needle between saving lives and saving economies are proving to be extremely difficult.  What makes the burden greater, is that we're so much in debt already, especially because we kicked the can down the road after the 2008 recession and printed more and went into further debt.  There's little room to maneuver this time except to print  ANd that's going to destroy the economy.  All the politicians are willing to sacrifice the economy just to get by the November election.  So maybe it will hit in 2021. But a disaster awaits us economically.   

Don't worry the Chinese will cone bail the US out.

[JoeKitchen]

I think that's under the new PPP legislation.  That just went broke in two weeks. ($350 billion)  The congress is trying to pass more money for it.

It’s different actually, PUA.  They closed us down and owe us.  I would not feel this way in a normal recession, but this was government dictated. 

[Alan Klein]

While the rest of the world is busy with the virus, China expands into the South China Sea.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-china-southchinasea-idUSKBN2210M7

[Alan Klein]

Explain that to the dead corpse of a friend that you only found out after the fact that he was having financial difficulties. 

Like I said, people will kill themselves over this, and many will do so without any warning. 

Have you ever known someone that has killed himself?  There's no logic to it. 

And I think you are completely naive when it comes to economics.  You cant just turn off and then turn on the economy without very serious effects.  A 1/6 of wealth for the year has been lost due to government action.  That is a huge amount.  My sister is looking for a house this year.  I told her it will probably be impossible for her to get a loan if this goes on for much longer.  She just cant understand why, but will soon find out.  Thankfully I bought a handyman special and my mortgage is a joke. 

She should wait.  Real estate values are going to drop like a rock. Who can afford to buy a house when they're out of work living on government handouts? The only issue is mortgage rates will  move up due to inflation.  It'll be a balancing game when it's best to buy. 

[Alan Klein]

Yes, my uncle committed suicide. There is no logic and many suicide have been occurring prior to this virus. Have no idea how many more will occur during the lockdown. Also one needs to look at how many other deaths, heart attacks, strokes etc... are occurring because medical systems are over run. I can imagine in NY there are many that just fall by the side as there is no doctor available to help.

Bottom line best measure of deaths is after the fact where you take total deaths for the time Covid was active and subtract the average over this same time from previous years. That will give you a good picture of deaths either directly or indirectly related to Covid.

Sorry to hear about your uncle.  That's tragic for the whole family. 

I think they'll have a pretty close idea of the causes because there are death certificates.  People who dies in hospitals have doctors around who know what happened to the patient.  At home, there has to be a medical examiner's report.  Most of the dead would have symptoms prior to death so the cause will be fairly easy to determine if its Covid.  Sure, a few will be missed.  But I think that will be a small number.

[chez]

Sorry to hear about your uncle.  That's tragic for the whole family. 

I think they'll have a pretty close idea of the causes because there are death certificates.  People who dies in hospitals have doctors around who know what happened to the patient.  At home, there has to be a medical examiner's report.  Most of the dead would have symptoms prior to death so the cause will be fairly easy to determine if its Covid.  Sure, a few will be missed.  But I think that will be a small number.

But did the chaos caused by attending to Covid patients indirectly cause that heart attack death because not enough medical staff or attention was paid to the patient.

Like I said a good picture of the devastatin Covid will be looking at all deaths during the Covid period and comparing to the same timeframe in other years.

[Alan Klein]

I guess we'll see how fast things get back to normal. This was an artificial crash of the economy, self induced. We have never had this before, at this rate anyway so I don't think anyone really knows how things will look next year. China is already starting up its factories. That pork plant that went down will start up on a dime.

I think the areas that will take longer to recover are things like tourism as people might remain sceptical for longer, discretionary items like photo equipment until people feel good about their financial situations.

But those waiters and bar tenders will all come back quickly as there will be a pent up demand to go out and eat / drink / socialize again.

I personally am not as pessimistic as you. I think we'll recover pretty quickly. Some things might change for ever...but maybe that's good as we need some changes in our lives once in a while.

In any case, I owe nothing to anyone, I'm still getting all the food I need, have a great house that I remodelled last year...so just awaiting things to open up. Hoping the national parks open up by August as I have won lottery tickets into a secluded place in Yoho park and want to spend time taking some landscape images.

I hope you and Trump are right; that the economy will just pick up where it left off.  Certainly stock prices need a hand.  The problem is the economy has been in a bubble, the stock market too.  There is huge debt.  The government is broke.  It had a trillion dollar deficit before the virus and they were lowering interest rates as well.  Why if the economy was so great and didn't need a stimulus?   Now it's going trillions of dollars more in debt.  PLus, the government has lost all sense of balance and respect for the dollar. They think the answer is just to print more to stimulate and make up for less work and less production.  That's what they did in Germany after WWI. 

[faberryman]

What about the elderly? While trying to save lives and protect the working, the government is also printing money.  The devaluation of currency due to inflation will wipe out many fixed income people who depend on Social Security and modest savings.  Interest rates are near 0, and every rise in price costs cannot be made up by ever reduced value of the savings.  There would be some increase in SS, but that never equals the actual inflation increases.  Older people who lost there jobs now, will never be able to retire and will be lucky to find employment again.  In the old days, we lived on farms and could go back to the land to depend on.  At least we could eat.  Modern economies don't work that way. 

Of course there are no simple answers.  Threading the needle between saving lives and saving economies are proving to be extremely difficult.  What makes the burden greater, is that we're so much in debt already, especially because we kicked the can down the road after the 2008 recession and printed more and went into further debt.  There's little room to maneuver this time except to print  ANd that's going to destroy the economy.  All the politicians are willing to sacrifice the economy just to get by the November election.  So maybe it will hit in 2021. But a disaster awaits us economically.   

Don't forget water turning to blood, frogs, lice, flies, livestock pestilence, boils, hail, locusts, darkness and the killing of firstborn children.

[Alan Klein]

Don't worry the Chinese will cone bail the US out.

Well, they need us as customers.  But if inflation wipes out the value of the dollar, even their products will cost too much.  They won't loan us money or buy government bonds at low interest rates.  And when they do, we, the public, will have to pay for it in higher interest rates and higher taxes to repay the Chinese.  We'll work for them. The Chinese are smart.  They're big savers.  Americans like debt. 

[Alan Klein]

It’s different actually, PUA.  They closed us down and owe us.  I would not feel this way in a normal recession, but this was government dictated. 

I'm sorry you're going through this.  But it's not a "taking".  They haven't seized it for themselves as what happens in  eminent domain where they have to reimburse you.  You still own your business.  Regulations are not considered a taking since it applies to everyone.  Also, which government is responsible?  It's mainly state and local ordinances that shut things down, not the federal government.

[chez]

Well, they need us as customers.  But if inflation wipes out the value of the dollar, even their products will cost too much.  They won't loan us money or buy government bonds at low interest rates.  And when they do, we, the public, will have to pay for it in higher interest rates and higher taxes to repay the Chinese.  We'll work for them. The Chinese are smart.  They're big savers.  Americans like debt.

Yep...that's why I said the Chinese will bail the US out...but they'll then own you.

I was in Crostia last year. Country still reeling from the war. But low and behold there is a beautiful 4 lane tolled road that has a 130km speed limit...a work of art with modern gas stations and food / rest stops every 40km or so. Guess who put that road in and guess who is collecting the tolls...you got it, the Chinese. They are spreading their wings everywhere.

I read a great book on the history of China and back in the old days they had a huge fleet of ships and we're expanding out to different lands. There is even evidence that the Chinese landed onto South America about 100 years before Columbus.

Anyway, history has it that there was this big lightening storm and a newly constructed temple was struck by lightening burning down the temple and much of the surrounding city. The Emperor at the time took this to be a sign from God telling him his plans to expand his empire by sea is a bad idea. Thus, the Emperor called all his ships back from abroad and China from then on focused internally.

Could you imagine if that temple was not hit by lightening. The Asian empire would have included all the Americas.

[Alan Klein]

Do you want this APP in your country?  To reduce the virus spread, this app will track you.  Of course, no one will be able to keep their privacy. So, is that OK?

In China, This Coronavirus App Pretty Much Controls Your Life
https://futurism.com/contact-tracing-apps-china-coronavirus

[Alan Klein]

Yep...that's why I said the Chinese will bail the US out...but they'll then own you.

I was in Crostia last year. Country still reeling from the war. But low and behold there is a beautiful 4 lane tolled road that has a 130km speed limit...a work of art with modern gas stations and food / rest stops every 40km or so. Guess who put that road in and guess who is collecting the tolls...you got it, the Chinese. They are spreading their wings everywhere.

I read a great book on the history of China and back in the old days they had a huge fleet of ships and we're expanding out to different lands. There is even evidence that the Chinese landed onto South America about 100 years before Columbus.

Anyway, history has it that there was this big lightening storm and a newly constructed temple was struck by lightening burning down the temple and much of the surrounding city. The Emperor at the time took this to be a sign from God telling him his plans to expand his empire by sea is a bad idea. Thus, the Emperor called all his ships back from abroad and China from then on focused internally.

Could you imagine if that temple was not hit by lightening. The Asian empire would have included all the Americas.

It was better when they were Communists.