In terms of the 'disconnect' between LR and true clipping, just how much are we talking about, 1 stop, 1/2 stop, 1/4 stop?
Depends on the Raw and the camera it was taken with, but theoretically can be up to 5 stops. One would need to take a finely bracketed series to find out, and compare Rawdigger's real Raw data, with the point where LR would start showing the clipping indicator. Possibly also for each ISO that one wants to know it for.
Shooting a newspaper should give some (paper) structure in highlights, and some dark greys that will become mid grey. A better target would be a stepwedge with 0.10 density increments like a Stouffer 2110, because plotting the RGB values will show how the roll-off is near the clipping point, and the steps will show as spikes on the histogram, narrow spikes for low noise, wider spikes/humps for high noise, if surface reflection are avoided.
Cheers,
Bart