Luminous Landscape Forum
Site & Board Matters => About This Site => Topic started by: Mark D Segal on February 06, 2008, 07:56:26 pm
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Michael,
An excellent and far-reaching think-piece, with credible prognostics about where the industry is heading and what may become more or less useful to its customers.
But there is one important element not covered - called SERVICE. Clearly, whether looking at DSLRs or printers or other equipment, the industry is becoming more competitive and the feature sets more homogenuous - give or take a few unique features of this or that model of equipment. So product differentiation will turn from being feature-dominated to quality and service dominated.
Manufacturers who charge big bucks for items that embed second-rate design and slip-shod quality control and then provide crummy after-sales service will be punished because their technical prowess will no longer protect them. The market may become differentiated between corporations which live in bubbles versus corporations with out-reach to their client groups and tangibly good after sales support. I'm not going to name any names here, but many readers of this Forum will have their own views about who falls more or less within which category. One only needs to read the various threads as well as other Forums to see that the tendancies are becoming defined.
If increased competition and growing technical homogeneity puts more discipline into quality assurance and more effort into after-sales support particularly amongst those who are wanting in these areas, this will be yet another dimension of improvement to which we consumers can look forward.
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... homogenuous...
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=172857\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
that's 'disingenuously homogeneous' right?
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Eventually the chinese will make a printer or a dslr and then the price will drop to nothing and you'll get NO service and a really cheap camera.
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that's 'disingenuously homogeneous' right?
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=172860\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Damn - there should be a spell-check utility on these boards!
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Eventually the chinese will make a printer or a dslr and then the price will drop to nothing and you'll get NO service and a really cheap camera.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=172866\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
I agree. There is a term to describe what will happen (and what has been happening to a degree for some time now): A race to the bottom.
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Eventually the chinese will make a printer or a dslr and then the price will drop to nothing and you'll get NO service and a really cheap camera.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=172866\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Not sure. The complexity is such that it couldn't happen too fast, and in 5 years from now it will cost more to manufacture in China than in other South East Asian countries.
Besides, even Sony needs years to build a system that is remotely credible, I don't see why Chinese investors would want to go the DSLR route, there are many other domains of human activity where money can be made a lot more easily.
Cheers,
Bernard
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Damn - there should be a spell-check utility on these boards!
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=172870\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
It's called Firefox
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Not sure. The complexity is such that it couldn't happen too fast, and in 5 years from now it will cost more to manufacture in China than in other South East Asian countries.
Besides, even Sony needs years to build a system that is remotely credible, I don't see why Chinese investors would want to go the DSLR route, there are many other domains of human activity where money can be made a lot more easily.
Cheers,
Bernard
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=172928\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Well spoken Bernard - I think this is exactly right. However given the size of the Chinese economy and its growing diversification and technological progress, it wouldn't surprise me to see the eventual development of one or more lines of Chinese DSLRs and lenses - but I agree - it would take time, cost even them large bundles of money, there are easier ways of making a buck and they are very adept at identifying and pursuing them.
As for the indusrtry "racing to the bottom" - I don't agree with Bernie West - we've had an uninterrupted recent history of exponential progress with the technological development of digital imaging - and this is something we shouldn't just overlook. Billions of R&D have been invested in this field; it needs a combination of large volumes of lower-priced mass-market merchandise along with much smaller volumes of higher-priced professional merchandise to generate the cash flow sustaining the range of product development which caters to all market segments. The various hands feed eachother in complex ways. Slinging about slogans like "race to the bottom" I think vastly over-simplifies and misrepresents the commercial and technological realities of this industry group.
The point of my original post, to bring this discussion back on topic, is that once the hardware solutions offered by the various competitors begin to look very similar, discriminating consumers will increasingly differentiate brands on criteria of quality assurance and after-sales service; from where we stand now, some are much better at it than others, and I would expect the ones who continue to neglect this dimension will pay for that mistake. If so, it means there is more likely to be a "race to the top". but the devil is in the details and it will likely play differently in different segments of the market.
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It's called Firefox
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=172962\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Thanks Lois, but I'm on I.E. 7 for better or worse! Anyhow I could compose these things in Word, spell-check them there and import them here - but that's real effort!
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Thanks Lois, but I'm on I.E. 7 for better or worse! Anyhow I could compose these things in Word, spell-check them there and import them here - but that's real effort!
[{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a] (http://index.php?act=findpost&pid=172964\")
Hi there
There is a free program that works well with IE&. I use it all the time: [a href=\"http://www.iespell.com/]http://www.iespell.com/[/url]
Best wishes
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Hi there
There is a free program that works well with IE&. I use it all the time: http://www.iespell.com/ (http://www.iespell.com/)
Best wishes
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=172970\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Sid - many thanks - I'll check it out - obviously made for people like me! Good to see yet again how L-L can be such a good-natured and helpful place - be it in photography or spelling!
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Eventually the chinese will make a printer or a dslr ...
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=172866\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
There are already DSLR's made in China, and Thailand, and I think also Vietnam. Olympus makes all its DSLR's in China now (though with critical components made in Japan I believe). Nikon makes everything up to the D300 in Thailand (again with critical components from Japan?), so only the D3 is "made in Japan".
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replace "make" with "market".
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I have a Samsung LCD monitor and was made in China!
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There are already DSLR's made in China, and Thailand, and I think also Vietnam. Olympus makes all its DSLR's in China now (though with critical components made in Japan I believe). Nikon makes everything up to the D300 in Thailand (again with critical components from Japan?), so only the D3 is "made in Japan".
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=173098\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
The point is not whether it is manufacturerd in China, Thai or another lower cost country. And I am not talking about the fact that considering Thai and China to be the same is about as accurate as comparing the US to Guatemala...
The point is the company that designs, markets and sells the product. To what extend do they want to be perceived as being accountable in the long run.
Cheers,
Bernard
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In addition to 'service' there's another dimension that could be a bsis of competition and that's the 'long tail' of features and functionality configurations.
What if I were willing to pay something for the ability to configure a camera to my requirements? Eg: weatherproofing option A (eg a '1'), resolution 12 mpx, af performance B (eg: 5d), ISO performance C (eg: up to 1600), APS H etc. etc. ?
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In addition to 'service' there's another dimension that could be a bsis of competition and that's the 'long tail' of features and functionality configurations.
What if I were willing to pay something for the ability to configure a camera to my requirements? Eg: weatherproofing option A (eg a '1'), resolution 12 mpx, af performance B (eg: 5d), ISO performance C (eg: up to 1600), APS H etc. etc. ?
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=173134\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
That would cost you a lot of money, believe me.
The wealth of variants is one of the major cost contributors to the cost of designing cars, and you would not believe to what extend it affects the whole process and organization of the companies.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the ability to configure a product as often a negative impact on the overall compactness of a design. Look at the new Mac Book Air... very compact but you cannot remove the battery and the HD is max 80GB...
Configurable cameras would overall be bulkier.
Cheers,
Bernard
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That would cost you a lot of money, believe me.
The wealth of variants is one of the major cost contributors to the cost of designing cars, and you would not believe to what extend it affects the whole process and organization of the companies.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the ability to configure a product as often a negative impact on the overall compactness of a design. Look at the new Mac Book Air... very compact but you cannot remove the battery and the HD is max 80GB...
Configurable cameras would overall be bulkier.
Cheers,
Bernard
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=173143\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Certainly you're right in the near future, but my "what if" is more in the context of where we might be 5 years out. Also, even if more expensive, this does add another competitive dimension. Surely we're beyond Henry Ford's maxim: "you can have any color you want as long as it's black". Lastly, I don't think a configurable (and here I mean configurable in the manufacturing context, not plug and play at the consumer level) camera is _necessarily_ any bulkier. In any event it would be the market that would determine the trade off between economics (which is really the driver of the 'bulkiness' factor) and the ability to have a multiplicity of models.
FWIW, I think that if this business model ever came to market it would be as a disruptive innovation, not from the current market leaders. It would start 'barely good enough' at the low end of the market and work it's way up the technology trajectory from there.
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Slinging about slogans like "race to the bottom" I think vastly over-simplifies and misrepresents the commercial and technological realities of this industry group.[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=172963\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
You're probably right, and I was a bit quick in my flippancy (is that a word?). I guess what I was saying will probably apply more to the point and shoot market. I suspect at the lower end, these cameras will become more or less disposable from the time they are bought. This is already happening in other markets, and I don't see any reason why it won't happen with digital cameras. Ultimately the mass market will vote with their feet, with price as their primary consideration. Unfortunately, long-term thinking greater than the next year or two isn't one of humanity's greatest traits. Quality control and quality of post-sale service will always fall down the list of most people's criterion.
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But there is one important element not covered - called SERVICE. Clearly, whether looking at DSLRs or printers or other equipment, the industry is becoming more competitive and the feature sets more homogenuous - give or take a few unique features of this or that model of equipment. So product differentiation will turn from being feature-dominated to quality and service dominated.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=172857\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Mark,
Aren't we progressing to a situation where all products are so modular that servicing is easy? Replace the module where the fault lies or replace the entire unit. Done! In fact, is there any reason why future cameras cannot have self -diagnostic circuitry to facilitate this process. Perhaps some products already have this.
I was very impressed with the Canon Service Centre in Bangkok. The mirror in my 5D came off its mount. If I'd had a tube of superglue with me at the time (I was taking lots of bracketed shots at Ancient City), I might have been tempted to glue it back on. In fact, I figured that's what the Canon service guys would probably do.
Not at all! They replaced the entire mirror housing, including prism and lens mount, and returned the defective part to me all nicely wrapped in a special Canon bag.
Whilst collecting my repaired 5D, I got talking to a European whom I'd noticed patiently waiting for something. It turned out he was waiting for his Canon P&S camera to be repaired on the spot. He'd just arrived from Norway where the Canon service people wanted to charge 9,000 Baht to repair his camera, which he thought was too much and in any case they were not able to do the repair before his departure. Here in Bangkok, they were repairing it for 2,500 Baht and doing it while he waited.
This Canon service centre in Bangkok seems better organised than any bank. Depending on whether you're bringing in a camera for repair or collecting a camera that's been repaired, you take the appropriate numbered ticket and wait your turn. There are so many assistants behind a long counter, you don't have to wait long.
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Not at all! They replaced the entire mirror housing, including prism and lens mount, and returned the defective part to me all nicely wrapped in a special Canon bag.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=173178\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Are you saying that Canon had so many problems with mirrors falling off the 5D that they designed a special doggy bag for that part?
Cheers,
Bernard
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Are you saying that Canon had so many problems with mirrors falling off the 5D that they designed a special doggy bag for that part?
Cheers,
Bernard
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=173184\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
No, Bernard. The same style of doggy bag was used for the repaired 5D body which was also wrapped first in insulating material. It's just an example of Canon's attention to detail. The total repair cost was a mere US$240. Can't complain about that. I was thinking of mounting the defective mirror housing on a small pedestal as a work of modern sculpture .
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Mark,
Aren't we progressing to a situation where all products are so modular that servicing is easy? Replace the module where the fault lies or replace the entire unit. Done! In fact, is there any reason why future cameras cannot have self -diagnostic circuitry to facilitate this process. Perhaps some products already have this.
I was very impressed with the Canon Service Centre in Bangkok. The mirror in my 5D came off its mount. If I'd had a tube of superglue with me at the time (I was taking lots of bracketed shots at Ancient City), I might have been tempted to glue it back on. In fact, I figured that's what the Canon service guys would probably do.
Not at all! They replaced the entire mirror housing, including prism and lens mount, and returned the defective part to me all nicely wrapped in a special Canon bag.
Whilst collecting my repaired 5D, I got talking to a European whom I'd noticed patiently waiting for something. It turned out he was waiting for his Canon P&S camera to be repaired on the spot. He'd just arrived from Norway where the Canon service people wanted to charge 9,000 Baht to repair his camera, which he thought was too much and in any case they were not able to do the repair before his departure. Here in Bangkok, they were repairing it for 2,500 Baht and doing it while he waited.
This Canon service centre in Bangkok seems better organised than any bank. Depending on whether you're bringing in a camera for repair or collecting a camera that's been repaired, you take the appropriate numbered ticket and wait your turn. There are so many assistants behind a long counter, you don't have to wait long.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=173178\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Hi Ray,
Modular or not, easy or difficult, in the final analysis what customers get is what the companies make available to them.
Canon's service center in Bangkok is exceptional. I've been there and I was also impressed. But I've had a total of four other interactions with Canon service centers - three here in Toronto and one in Barcelona, Each one of them was a turn-off. Most of the matters at hand were so simple that any properly resourced and organized service organization could have easily kept me happy.
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Hi Ray,
Modular or not, easy or difficult, in the final analysis what customers get is what the companies make available to them.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=173207\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Mark,
That's very true but this is not so much a technological problem as one of organising human resources. However, if labour costs in the West are too expensive for companies to offer satisfactory service, then perhaps technology can help by providing robotised assistants in the Service Centres .
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Mark,
That's very true but this is not so much a technological problem as one of organising human resources. However, if labour costs in the West are too expensive for companies to offer satisfactory service, then perhaps technology can help by providing robotised assistants in the Service Centres .
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=173209\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
I think in some cases we're already there, but it's the worst of both worlds because those who are robotized are still pulling Western salaries!
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However, if labour costs in the West are too expensive for companies to offer satisfactory service, then perhaps technology can help by providing robotised assistants in the Service Centres .
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=173209\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
The problem is IMHO more in terms of where we decide - as a society - to set the level of education of people who will get salaries belonging to the cheapest third.
We can either decide that these families get no education since they have no money, and that will of course drive a low level of service in many functions most of us have to deal with everyday. It will also favour significantly new immigrants who feel they have something to prove.
Or we can decide to educate the children of these families well, because it is a nice thing to do, but also because that will simply raise the level of the society as a whole.
Enough with my socialist views. :-)
Cheers,
Bernard
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Canon's service center in Bangkok is exceptional. I've been there and I was also impressed. But I've had a total of four other interactions with Canon service centers - three here in Toronto and one in Barcelona, Each one of them was a turn-off. Most of the matters at hand were so simple that any properly resourced and organized service organization could have easily kept me happy.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=173207\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Good to hear that at least Bangkok seems to get some service. My experiences with Canon in Switzerland have brought me to a point where I would never recommend these cameras to any serious photographer. After spending more than 25k on Canon equipment and then having problems with it, but not being registered as professional, I learnt that there is no service available, at least nothing that even remotely resembles a service oriented behaviour. They let me down several times.
I also own Alpas, Sinars and Hasselblads, maybe Canon should have a look at the way these companies communicate and provide service for their clients, even non professionals.
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There is a free program that works well with IE&. I use it all the time: http://www.iespell.com/ (http://www.iespell.com/)
Thanks Sid, just intalled it on my machine!!
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"Thanks Sid, just intalled it on my machine"
Oh my God! LMAO
If that is a joke it is very funny.
If it is not a joke it is even funnier.
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Some observations from a repair tech of twenty plus years...
In today's current corporate business model, service is more or less a necessary evil. Anything that subtracts from the bottom line causes acute physical pain, despite the fuzzy-feel-good marketing.
The range of experiences at different service facilities has as much to do with the managerial style at that location as it does with the policies of the parent company. I spent a year at Hasselblad's shop in California and witnessed a radical change in attitude when the fellow that hired me left and was replaced with a woman who had rather different ideas as to how to treat the employees as well as the customers. By the time I left business had dropped 25% and the exodus of the workers had begun. It limped along for a few years after and they eventually closed it. I heard that Captain Bligh was there 'till the bitter end, despite the numerous complaints by customers and employees.
That said, I would have to say that overall Canon has probably the best service track record out there. They usually have about a two week turn-around and their prices are usually fair. They also have the most reasonable parts prices by far. They will frequently still honor a warranty service even if it's a couple weeks or so past and they have also repaired CF pin damage as a warranty repair under certain circumstances. No other manufacturer does this. Heck, Nikon USA won't even perform a non warranty repair on equipment not purchased through them and treat it like it was radioactive.
All, except for the high end, point and shoots are more or less considered disposable. This is ensured by pricing repairs and parts prices high enough to make it more attractive to just by a new one.
Digital camera construction is modular, which is one reason for high parts costs. The fellow with the 5D mirror problem had the whole mirror box assembly replaced is that is the only way it's available and manufacturer techs won't repair a sub-assembly. I have seen replacement LCD assemblies for a point and shoots that were almost the price of the camera and as much as a small LCD TV. And while they are modular, working on most of this stuff is a real PITA. Most are assembled like a Chinese puzzle box and the various connectors are very fragile.
As far as the Chinese are concerned, they don't have to invest in developing technology. Companies from around the world are clawing over each other in a rush to build plants and the old "give a man a fish..." adage is already coming back to bite them. Check out http://www.popsci.com/iclone (http://www.popsci.com/iclone).
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Much of what you say above is sadly correct, but I think a two week turn-around for repairing defective new high-end equipment is poor - some people resign themselves to this because the industry has conditioned us to accept it, but this doesn't make it objectively satisfactory. And that counting starts after the pain some companies put us through before admitting they have a problem of their own making. If Canon is the standard-bearer, there's lots of progress to be made across the board!
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Not sure. The complexity is such that it couldn't happen too fast, and in 5 years from now it will cost more to manufacture in China than in other South East Asian countries.
Cheers,
Bernard
Sounds to me a lot like what the Germans said about the Japanese camera industry.
Is a digital SLR that much more complex that a Blue Ray DVD player? Or a compact digicam, many of which I suspect are already made in China?
It wasn't all that long ago we could buy a good quality film SLR for a few hundred bucks, and Canon's best pro AF SLR for under $1500. A digital SLR is mechanically simpler, and the electronics will continue to get cheaper and cheaper. Right now, technological improvements are going into higher pixel counts, bigger buffers, faster processing, etc. But at some point resolution will be high enough, buffers will be big enough, etc., and improvements will start to reduce costs. As will competition.
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Good to hear that at least Bangkok seems to get some service. My experiences with Canon in Switzerland have brought me to a point where I would never recommend these cameras to any serious photographer. After spending more than 25k on Canon equipment and then having problems with it, but not being registered as professional, I learnt that there is no service available, at least nothing that even remotely resembles a service oriented behaviour. They let me down several times.
I also own Alpas, Sinars and Hasselblads, maybe Canon should have a look at the way these companies communicate and provide service for their clients, even non professionals.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=173237\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
It wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't soon become cheaper and more effective to FedEx a complete body to the far east for repair and send it back, than to pay the salaries of Western technicians.
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Sounds to me a lot like what the Germans said about the Japanese camera industry.
Is a digital SLR that much more complex that a Blue Ray DVD player? Or a compact digicam, many of which I suspect are already made in China?
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=174095\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Well, what % of those was designed by Chinese OEM?
It wasn't all that long ago we could buy a good quality film SLR for a few hundred bucks, and Canon's best pro AF SLR for under $1500. A digital SLR is mechanically simpler, and the electronics will continue to get cheaper and cheaper. Right now, technological improvements are going into higher pixel counts, bigger buffers, faster processing, etc. But at some point resolution will be high enough, buffers will be big enough, etc., and improvements will start to reduce costs. As will competition.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=174095\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
What is going to prevail then is the value of the system, starting with the lenses.
Can Chinese based OEM do better in terms of design and manufacturing than Japanese OEMs (some of them already producing cheap in Thailand, China,...)? I don't see why they would be able to or even why they would be willing to invest the Billon $ it takes to get there.
What those guys are going to focus on are phone with built-in cameras that will IMHO represent 80% of all new "cameras" sold in 5-10 years from now. Same thing for watches,... that's where the money can be made for non expert stakeholders.
DSLRs are a very small niche compared to the global scale of electronics market, and a niche with already tremendous competition from players who have already done their transformation to efficient and lean manufacturing.
But we'll see, only time will tell.
Cheers,
Bernard
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Can Chinese based OEM do better in terms of design and manufacturing than Japanese OEMs (some of them already producing cheap in Thailand, China,...)? I don't see why they would be able to or even why they would be willing to invest the Billon $ it takes to get there.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=174100\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Bernard,
In terms of market capitalisation (total value of shares on issue) the 3 largest banks in the world are all Chinese. China is an unstoppable giant. Let's hope it eventually becomes a true democracy.
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Bernard,
In terms of market capitalisation (total value of shares on issue) the 3 largest banks in the world are all Chinese. China is an unstoppable giant. Let's hope it eventually becomes a true democracy.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=174126\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
A couple more facts on China:
BHP (worlds biggest miner) has put in a takeover bid for RIO Tinto (worlds third biggest miner). As China is heavily dependant on the minerals these two companies produce, they don't wish to see the merger go ahead. The Chinese government has made available a warchest of US$120 BILLION to block the bid.
China only spends roughly 10% of what the US does annually on military spending.
Bottom line? This country has a lot of money to play with.