Luminous Landscape Forum
The Art of Photography => The Coffee Corner => Topic started by: John Camp on April 11, 2020, 03:29:08 pm
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The economy has been a side-subject in the Covid-19 posts, but it's obviously important. An interesting analysis from Vox:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/4/9/21212743/coronavirus-economic-crash-2020-recovery-stock-market-covid-19
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It's dire. We were ready for a recession before the virus. High debt, too credit and printing created bubbles in the stock market, real estate, tuition, credit card etc. The virus just sped up the breaking of the bubbles.
Unfortunately the government is doubling down by raising more debt and printing to save us from the recession. That just exacerbates it because recessions are really helping to straighten out the mess created by government the first time. So they kick the can down the road again making it worse later on adding more debt and inflation.
There are too many businesses. The recession will get rid of the marginal and failing ones. Trying to save them just allocates resources poorly.
High unemployment will bring some manufacturing back to America. Lower wages wil make that possible. I read reading that Japan government is paying their companies to relocate back to Japan. That's not the way to do ir but it's interesting how countries don't want to be overseas making products for their own use. Let's hope we defeat the virus. Or we're really in for worse times.
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Canada is doing the same wasteful thing as America. Subsidizing losing companies with precious resources. They're picking winners and losers instead of allowing market forces pick them. That delays recovery. If the government would stay out of it, the better companies would expand quicker hiring away the employees from less productive and failing companies helping the overall economy quicker and better.
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/economic-response-plan/wage-subsidy.html
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One more from The Economist:
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/04/08/the-coronavirus-crisis-will-change-the-world-of-commerce
The last long-term shift is less certain and more unwelcome: a further rise in corporate concentration and cronyism, as government cash floods the private sector and big firms grow even more dominant. Already, two-thirds of American industries have become more concentrated since the 1990s, sapping the economy’s vitality. Now some powerful bosses are heralding a new era of co-operation between politicians and big businesses—especially those on the ever-expanding list of firms that are considered “strategic”. Voters, consumers and investors should fight this idea since it will mean more graft, less competition and slower economic growth. Like all crises the covid-19 calamity will pass and in time a fresh wave of business energy will be unleashed. Far better if this is not muffled by permanently supersized government and a new oligarchy of well-connected firms.■
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In the UK the govt. has promised financial support to small/medium companies and also, belatedly, the self-employed, but in today's Sophie Ridge on Sunday spot, the reality seems to be that weeks later, pitifully few have seen a cent.
Health officials in the front line are shouting that they lack adequate PPE, and in the very same show this morning the politicos refuse to answer directly but dodge the questioning by doing as some people do here on LuLa: they lapse into catechism and the replaying of the stuck record of good intentions. How these mothers can appear on a show knowing they are going to be quizzed, but think that appearing and dodging is better than staying off and saying nothing, boggles my mind. Oh the ego, the inability to see beyond their own assumed greatness, as if that somehow was enough to excuse everything.
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Right now it's a mess, but people adapt. Retired people and people on salaries working from home, although inconvenienced and bored, are nowhere near as affected as others in precarious or non-essential sectors. I guess life is unfair but I think we should support safety nets to help those folks. I am happy to pay taxes to help them. What's the other option? Does this add to deficits, sure but so what, would you prefer that one third of society starve?
In the medium term, structurally I don't see that there is such a big problem. Farm fields haven't turned to dust, the factories haven't been bombed, all the infrastructure that was there before is still there. People have only been out of work for a month, the "economy" could not possibly have collapsed already. One thing that I find incredibly stupid is the rolling back of environmental regulations. It's unbelievably short-sighted and bad accounting. People only count the cost of implementing regulations but never count the benefits. I thought we had moved past that simple-minded mindset. It's like wanting all those crappy cars from the 1970s back because we're nostalgic about having gotten laid in one.
If the stocks in your portfolio before the crash were actually worth what the market said they were worth, they will return to those values. They did after 2008. They do after every downturn. The people who most hate market downturns are the financial industry because they are a transaction-based industry and volumes are down. I can live with their pain.
One real problem coming up real soon is the difficulty of importing foreign (mostly Mexican I think) farm workers. North American farms rely on that labour. I believe Canada is looking for ways to expedite the work Visas for those essential workers.
My guess is that all industries will have to find ways of coping with distancing requirements temporarily while we figure out who is newly immune and who isn't. There are probably going to be high levels of illness and absenteeism for a while. Jurisdictions with more generous sick leave arrangements will probably do better than those without. Long-term corporate growth and health depends on a workforce that is trying to work hard. If industry throws sick people to the dogs, why would they ever work hard for you again.
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One more from The Economist:
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/04/08/the-coronavirus-crisis-will-change-the-world-of-commerce
I find this all too believable but we've been going down that road for a while now. The US Supreme Court has for decades been giving corporations all kinds of new rights but no new responsibilities of true citizenship. But this is just a follow-on from the generally accepted notion that society is a support system for commerce, when really it is the other way round. In the long term that is a mistake.
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One more from The Economist:
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/04/08/the-coronavirus-crisis-will-change-the-world-of-commerce
The same thing is happening again as happened in 2008. The large banks and companies will get the bulk of the handouts. Beside the direct $2 trillion, the Federal Reserve in America has the authority to issue and given out another 4$ trillion as Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin decides. So when the big fellers get into trouble, and they will, that's when the big bucks will be given in the forms of big loans, stock purchases, payoffs of debt, and the rest of the BS that happened after 2008. All that will water down the average schnook's savings account and pay check. The only difference this time is the first socialism for the unrich then followed bu socialism for the rich. The entire body politic has forgotten about fiscal responsibility. The Chinese might be the only ones left holding all the marbles.
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The same thing is happening again as happened in 2008. The large banks and companies will get the bulk of the handouts. Beside the direct $2 trillion, the Federal Reserve in America has the authority to issue and given out another 4$ trillion as Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin decides. So when the big fellers get into trouble, and they will, that's when the big bucks will be given in the forms of big loans, stock purchases, payoffs of debt, and the rest of the BS that happened after 2008. All that will water down the average schnook's savings account and pay check. The only difference this time is the first socialism for the unrich then followed bu socialism for the rich. The entire body politic has forgotten about fiscal responsibility. The Chinese might be the only ones left holding all the marbles.
And they are, as Robert showed in the Macleans article:
https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-the-breakthrough-xi-jinping-has-been-waiting-for-and-hes-making-his-move/
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High unemployment will bring some manufacturing back to America. Lower wages wil make that possible. I read reading that Japan government is paying their companies to relocate back to Japan. That's not the way to do ir but it's interesting how countries don't want to be overseas making products for their own use. Let's hope we defeat the virus. Or we're really in for worse times.
Isn't that self-contradictory. First you want manufacturing to return to the US (although it never actually left, the US is still the world's 2nd largest manufacturer) but then criticize Japan for trying to do the same thing.
But I think your notion that low salaries will bring manufacturing back to the US and that that is a good thing is a bit off. Bringing low-paying wages back doesn't help the US, it just makes it one of those third world countries that others outsource to. And it's not clear to me how those people with lower wages will be able to live in a high cost society unless everything else gets depressed to, real estate rent, etc. That's pretty bleak. Why do you want to transform your country into a developing nation? Doesn't make sense to me.
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Right now it's a mess, but people adapt. Retired people and people on salaries working from home, although inconvenienced and bored, are nowhere near as affected as others in precarious or non-essential sectors. I guess life is unfair but I think we should support safety nets to help those folks. I am happy to pay taxes to help them. What's the other option? Does this add to deficits, sure but so what, would you prefer that one third of society starve?
In the medium term, structurally I don't see that there is such a big problem. Farm fields haven't turned to dust, the factories haven't been bombed, all the infrastructure that was there before is still there. People have only been out of work for a month, the "economy" could not possibly have collapsed already. One thing that I find incredibly stupid is the rolling back of environmental regulations. It's unbelievably short-sighted and bad accounting. People only count the cost of implementing regulations but never count the benefits. I thought we had moved past that simple-minded mindset. It's like wanting all those crappy cars from the 1970s back because we're nostalgic about having gotten laid in one.
If the stocks in your portfolio before the crash were actually worth what the market said they were worth, they will return to those values. They did after 2008. They do after every downturn. The people who most hate market downturns are the financial industry because they are a transaction-based industry and volumes are down. I can live with their pain.
One real problem coming up real soon is the difficulty of importing foreign (mostly Mexican I think) farm workers. North American farms rely on that labour. I believe Canada is looking for ways to expedite the work Visas for those essential workers.
My guess is that all industries will have to find ways of coping with distancing requirements temporarily while we figure out who is newly immune and who isn't. There are probably going to be high levels of illness and absenteeism for a while. Jurisdictions with more generous sick leave arrangements will probably do better than those without. Long-term corporate growth and health depends on a workforce that is trying to work hard. If industry throws sick people to the dogs, why would they ever work hard for you again.
Yes, and that seems always to be overlooked: the structures still exist and people are going to be very keen to get back into them and working.
Earlier, I posted a halk-joking post to the effect that the way to beat this is to pretend that time just stood still for a month - whatever it turns out to be - and simply start up again as if nothing had happened. The money is basically just an exchange device: as with anything, countries can come to an arrangement as to what that value will be. Instead of a fight, an agreement - for a change - could work wonders.
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Right now it's a mess, but people adapt. Retired people and people on salaries working from home, although inconvenienced and bored, are nowhere near as affected as others in precarious or non-essential sectors. I guess life is unfair but I think we should support safety nets to help those folks. I am happy to pay taxes to help them. What's the other option? Does this add to deficits, sure but so what, would you prefer that one third of society starve?
Nothing wrong with helping people eat. But printing money to every business and picking winners and losers will just delay the return of a good economy. It wastes precious financial resources and inflation diminishes the purchasing power of those least able to afford it.
In the medium term, structurally I don't see that there is such a big problem. Farm fields haven't turned to dust, the factories haven't been bombed, all the infrastructure that was there before is still there. People have only been out of work for a month, the "economy" could not possibly have collapsed already. One thing that I find incredibly stupid is the rolling back of environmental regulations. It's unbelievably short-sighted and bad accounting. People only count the cost of implementing regulations but never count the benefits. I thought we had moved past that simple-minded mindset. It's like wanting all those crappy cars from the 1970s back because we're nostalgic about having gotten laid in one.
If the stocks in your portfolio before the crash were actually worth what the market said they were worth, they will return to those values. They did after 2008. They do after every downturn. The people who most hate market downturns are the financial industry because they are a transaction-based industry and volumes are down. I can live with their pain.
The country has been living on debt. The stock market is a bubble because everyone's dumping money into it because it was the only place to gain value as interest rates were near zero. Now the bubble has been popped. Also, as the economy shrinks, all those falsely high valuations will drop back to more accurate assessments. All this spending may hold off a worse drop until the election, the main purpose Trump and the other politicians are doing this. But then in 2021, all hell will break lose especially if the virus is still around.
One real problem coming up real soon is the difficulty of importing foreign (mostly Mexican I think) farm workers. North American farms rely on that labour. I believe Canada is looking for ways to expedite the work Visas for those essential workers.
Newly poor Americans will be willing to take those jobs including manufacturing jobs lost to overseas, so they can eat. Of course, if the government keeps giving them money, they'll stay at home delaying recovery. Illegal immigration will stop as Americans become willing do stuff they hadn't before.
My guess is that all industries will have to find ways of coping with distancing requirements temporarily while we figure out who is newly immune and who isn't. There are probably going to be high levels of illness and absenteeism for a while. Jurisdictions with more generous sick leave arrangements will probably do better than those without. Long-term corporate growth and health depends on a workforce that is trying to work hard. If industry throws sick people to the dogs, why would they ever work hard for you again.
When people have to eat, they'll take a lot of crap and thank employers willing to give them jobs.
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Why do you want to transform your country into a developing nation? Doesn't make sense to me.
Nobody wants to transform USA and Canada to a developing nation status, but the reality is that in the past many unionized employees were overpaid, and that won't be sustainable in the future.
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I find this all too believable but we've been going down that road for a while now. The US Supreme Court has for decades been giving corporations all kinds of new rights but no new responsibilities of true citizenship. But this is just a follow-on from the generally accepted notion that society is a support system for commerce, when really it is the other way round. In the long term that is a mistake.
The Constitution gives people and companies rights, not the Supreme Court. Of course, what we argue about is whether the court is misinterpreting the constitution. But you can't on one hand say that the constitution is a living document open to modern interpretation. Then complain that you don't like the interpretations the court is making.
Arguing that corporations don't have true citizenship isn't true. Boeing for example has 143,000 employees in all 50 states. They pay salaries which feed those families and provide social security and medicare payments to the government including their matching taxes paid. In good years they pay income taxes as well. They're one of the major exporters adding foreign wealth to the country. Their military products help protect America. A small wedding photographer with a few employees does the same thing, only on a smaller scale. Without companies, there would be no jobs. Arguing they do nothing for the country is just wrong. It's an old socialist or Marxist myth.
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Isn't that self-contradictory. First you want manufacturing to return to the US (although it never actually left, the US is still the world's 2nd largest manufacturer) but then criticize Japan for trying to do the same thing.
But I think your notion that low salaries will bring manufacturing back to the US and that that is a good thing is a bit off. Bringing low-paying wages back doesn't help the US, it just makes it one of those third world countries that others outsource to. And it's not clear to me how those people with lower wages will be able to live in a high cost society unless everything else gets depressed to, real estate rent, etc. That's pretty bleak. Why do you want to transform your country into a developing nation? Doesn't make sense to me.
Governments like Japan or any other shouldn't pay for companies to bring manufacturing back to their countries. That's government picking winners and losers. If government wants to help, they should lower taxes and spending and leave more money and resources in private hands. Then let the free market decide.
I don't want a poor America but government is causing that with high taxes, debt and inflation. People will take lower paying jobs to eat. So some manufacturing lost to cheaper labor overseas will return to this country. Our standard of living will decline mostly due to our own greediness of wanting so much stuff for "free". There's no such thing as a free lunch. Europe and Canada are not immune to these difficulties. No one is.
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Nobody wants to transform USA and Canada to a developing nation status, but the reality is that in the past many unionized employees were overpaid, and that won't be sustainable in the future.
Climate control spending will decrease as government drops expensive support programs. With fossil fuel energy getting even cheaper, oil's below $30, there will be less incentive to move to renewables. Interestingly, the air and CO2 will get better because economies are contracting. I've driven maybe 30 miles in three weeks. Allstate Insurance is giving rebates on their car insurance because there's been so many less accidents. It seems Covid is saving lives on the road. Go figure.
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Climate control spending will decrease as government drops expensive support programs. With fossil fuel energy getting even cheaper, oil's below $30, there will be less incentive to move to renewables. Interestingly, the air and CO2 will get better because economies are contracting. I've driven maybe 30 miles in three weeks. Allstate Insurance is giving rebates on their car insurance because there's been so many less accidents. It seems Covid is saving lives on the road. Go figure.
Warren Buffet (and other insurance companies) noticed that already a month ago. Several US insurance companies are giving to the drivers back part of their premiums.
Unfortunately, Canadian insurance companies use this windfall only to grow their profits without sharing it with their customers.
The outbreak is also hitting the highways, with Berkshire Hathaway-owned insurance company GEICO seeing fewer accidents.
"I can tell you one thing that's kind of interesting. We have seen in the last two weeks, for example, fewer accidents reported," he said, noting that they usually get about 20,000 reports per day. Buffett added, "So we know when people are driving, yeah, that's the one that's got a lot of reporting being done. And in the last ten days, people just haven't been driving as much. And it's noticeable that — now, you have to make that weather adjusted and all kinds of other things, but people have changed their behavior."
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-says-geico-sees-fewer-drivers-on-road-125809697.html
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One real problem coming up real soon is the difficulty of importing foreign (mostly Mexican I think) farm workers. North American farms rely on that labour. I believe Canada is looking for ways to expedite the work Visas for those essential workers.
That's one thing I don't understand why with so many unemployed today, why do we have to rely on foreign labour? Can't we get some of those unemployed back working?
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Nobody wants to transform USA and Canada to a developing nation status, but the reality is that in the past many unionized employees were overpaid, and that won't be sustainable in the future.
I don't want to make a big thing out of this, especially because there have been many cases where union actions were beyond the pale, and I'm thinking primarily about ties to organized crime.
But I have a problem with blaming high union wages for everything. How come greed is good, but suddenly bad when an hourly worker wants more? In the approximately 30 years it took for General Motors to go from No. 1 to oblivion, the bonus-receiving management continued to build cars that no one wanted. But when the end came, the business press blamed the high cost of union pension and health benefits. I never heard one voice suggest that the bonuses paid to the management over that time should be paid back though. Funny, isn't it?
So when things go well, people take the credit and pay themselves well, when things go bad, it's someone else's fault? I don't think so. At every step of the way, that management agreed to all those union demands.
Then Honda and Toyota moved into North America, hired those same people, paid as well as they earned before, and everyone did quite well, not because there were no unions but because people wanted to buy those cars.
Every time a union gets a wage demand that people don't like, just remember that a management team agreed to it. Somehow this gets forgotten for some reason.
I am certain that you can find many egregious examples of union greed. And every time you come up with one, I'm going to point to the 2008 bank bailout. And the handouts to Bombardier. And subsidies to other industries in bad times, as if they weren't supposed to be making their own disaster plans. I'm sorry but blaming the unions is an order of magnitude too facile.
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That's one thing I don't understand why with so many unemployed today, why do we have to rely on foreign labour? Can't we get some of those unemployed back working?
Because people probably don't analyze numbers very well. We all quote high unemployment but is it real. Why is it that every labour market study in the last 20 years have all repeatedly pointed to a growing labour shortage in Canada in all sectors and that we had better plan our immigration better because otherwise there won't be enough people working.
There may be some Uber drivers and waiters unemployed right now but is it really feasible that they suddenly all move to farm country and start working in the fields? My guess is that the farmers don't want them anyway because they already have a large well-trained workforce waiting to fly into town that they already know and trust.
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Because people probably don't analyze numbers very well. We all quote high unemployment but is it real. Why is it that every labour market study in the last 20 years have all repeatedly pointed to a growing labour shortage in Canada in all sectors and that we had better plan our immigration better because otherwise there won't be enough people working.
There may be some Uber drivers and waiters unemployed right now but is it really feasible that they suddenly all move to farm country and start working in the fields? My guess is that the farmers don't want them anyway because they already have a large well-trained workforce waiting to fly into town that they already know and trust.
Well in the Okanagan the unemployment rate has risen to 6% so there is plenty people here without jobs. These unemployed would not have to move...they are right in the heart of orchard country where foreign workers are being flown in.
As far as training goes, I'm sure locals could easily be trained in two weeks time as that is how long these foreign workers need to isolate once they enter Canada. Also the facilities that house these foreign workers have not been built for social isolation in mind and already there has been a major outbreak of the virus within one of these facilities.
I understand during normal years where unemployment is very low, yes help is required from foreign workers. I just don't feel this year is one where we should be relying on thousands of foreign works coming here with possibilities of virus spread when we have a workforce sitting at home.
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Climate control spending will decrease as government drops expensive support programs. With fossil fuel energy getting even cheaper, oil's below $30, there will be less incentive to move to renewables. Interestingly, the air and CO2 will get better because economies are contracting. I've driven maybe 30 miles in three weeks. Allstate Insurance is giving rebates on their car insurance because there's been so many less accidents. It seems Covid is saving lives on the road. Go figure.
Nonsense. Trump has talked about putting a tariff on foreign oil (the only thing he knows how to do) to keep the price artificially high to support American oil companies whose cost of production is higher than for foreign oil. The dip in oil prices arising out of the spat between Saudi Arabia and Russia won't last long. Once this coronavirus outbreak is over, people will be back to driving as much as before.
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Well in the Okanagan the unemployment rate has risen to 6% so there is plenty people here without jobs. These unemployed would not have to move...they are right in the heart of orchard country where foreign workers are being flown in.
As far as training goes, I'm sure locals could easily be trained in two weeks time as that is how long these foreign workers need to isolate once they enter Canada. Also the facilities that house these foreign workers have not been built for social isolation in mind and already there has been a major outbreak of the virus within one of these facilities.
I understand during normal years where unemployment is very low, yes help is required from foreign workers. I just don't feel this year is one where we should be relying on thousands of foreign works coming here with possibilities of virus spread when we have a workforce sitting at home.
I understand but how easy it is to make that decision is going to be different for different people. If you expect or at least hope that your non-essential job might be ok to return to in 3 weeks time, it's not obvious that you want to commit to some other work in the meantime. And how does that person get to farm country to apply for the job in the first place? Maybe that's locally easier to do in the Okanagan and maybe it will happen for some. It probably should. Who knows, some might discover they prefer it to their old job.
Here in Ontario, the impression I get is that the seasonal migrant farm workers have long-term arrangements with their employers, same folks flying back every year. There is housing for them on the property, they've known each other for years in some cases. It might not even be easy for the employer to change the way they operate, all of a sudden they have to start recruiting locally, interviewing, etc. I'm not saying it can't be done, just that it may not be easy to switch tactics especially at the last minute like this. Takes years to develop those processes.
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That's one thing I don't understand why with so many unemployed today, why do we have to rely on foreign labour? Can't we get some of those unemployed back working?
If they are all as many of our own, they lack the ethic of hard work for little reward. When unemployment pay discourages basic work...
Also, don't forget that much hard work is physically impossible for the old unemployed people to do: you'd have a hard time digging potatoes or gathering strawberries out in the fields at sixty unless you'd spent your life bending down and using those muscles. In fifties Scotland it was often students who went to the fields during holidays to make some pennies gathering such foods from the ground. Later, when students preferred other games, the work went to the traveller communities who set up camp on the farmers' fields and worked to earn their living by doing such stuff. Now, it's eastern Europeans... Without somebody being poor, those jobs just don't get done.
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Good points from both, chez on the extra non-productive 14 days of quarantine and cramped living quarters not compliant with minimal safe distance and from Robert on the need for experienced work force.
Not far from my home is the Holland Marsh agricultural area, and they are already feeling the crunch.
When the Canadian government halted all non-essential air travel, it raised red flags for the agricultural sector, which relies on guest farm workers from countries like Mexico and Jamaica for a successful growing season. Jody Mott, Executive Director of the Holland Marsh Growers Association, was among the interested parties bringing those concerns to the attention of the federal government – and who, on March 20, received “good news.”
In the wake of representations from a wide range of economic interests, the Ministry of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship has now announced exemptions to the travel ban for foreign nationals who have already committed to working, studying or making Canada their home. That means that the travel of agricultural guest workers will be deemed “essential,” and will be permitted despite COVID-19 concerns. Mott has received calls from local residents, volunteering to assist the farmers as needed. It means that farmers can now bring in those “essential, experience agricultural workers” as the first step, “then we’ll be looking for other people to work along side of them.”
“Every farm in the area has very different aspects,” and different needs for workers, Hambly said. Gwillimdale usually brings in its first group of guest workers in January, to assist at the packing plant; a second in April, to get the land ready for cultivation and seeding; and then additional agricultural workers to maintain and harvest the crops.
https://www.bradfordtoday.ca/local-news/federal-government-announces-travel-ban-exemptions-for-needed-farm-workers-2187844
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Here's an article from the Vancouver Sun regarding foreign workers and the Covid outbreak at one facility...with more to come.
"Cohen said workers often don’t have access to adequate bathrooms. They sleep in one of three or four bunk beds crammed into a bedroom that doesn’t allow for two metres of physical distancing."
“They’re almost always overcrowded and there’s a lack of inspections at the best of times,” Cohen said. “I’ve interviewed hundreds of workers and one of the consistent requests that workers make to us is that housing be inspected by surprise inspection, and at this point that doesn’t happen.”
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/covid-19-kelowna-nursery-outbreak-likely-wont-be-last-for-migrant-workers-advocates-warn/
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There was an interesting letter to the editor in the weekend Wall Street Journal about "creative destruction," which is what happens during recessions in which efficient business operations survive, and the inefficient die. This supposedly makes even more room for the efficient operations, which then thrive. But this time, the letter-writer said (he's an economist) we're simply getting destruction. Both efficient and inefficient operations are closed by government order, unrelated to the quality of the operation.
I hadn't thought about that, but in thinking about it, the point is clear. It doesn't make any difference how efficient or well-loved your restaurant is, if it's ordered closed, it's closed, and you could go broke. The same with other retail-oriented businesses which depend on actual bodies coming through your store. Further, it seems to me the if the economy is partially re-opened, we're still going to have a problem if the virus is out there floating around. As a 76-year-old, I'll be reluctant to go to any restaurant until I'm immune, either through recovery from an infection, or a vaccine. Even quality operations would have trouble staying open if only half the customers show up. Heck, a lot of them would have trouble staying open if their traffic dropped only ten percent.
This oncoming recession could be a bad one. Not only do people have less money to spend, they might not even go out to spend it if they have it, because of the bug. We desperately need a treatment or a vaccine, and for more reasons than simple survival.
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It doesn't make any difference how efficient or well-loved your restaurant is, if it's ordered closed, it's closed, and you could go broke. The same with other retail-oriented businesses which depend on actual bodies coming through your store. Further, it seems to me the if the economy is partially re-opened, we're still going to have a problem if the virus is out there floating around. As a 76-year-old, I'll be reluctant to go to any restaurant until I'm immune, either through recovery from an infection, or a vaccine. Even quality operations would have trouble staying open if only half the customers show up. Heck, a lot of them would have trouble staying open if their traffic dropped only ten percent.
Add to it factors such as that there were too many restaurants to start with, they are really not that essential for most people, many restaurants were operating even before with a very small margin, some older restaurant owners will use this situation to retire for good, and many employees will be reluctant to return to their old jobs.
Poor prognosis for restaurants and other businesses in the service industry.
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Good points from both, chez on the extra non-productive 14 days of quarantine and cramped living quarters not compliant with minimal safe distance and from Robert on the need for experienced work force.
Not far from my home is the Holland Marsh agricultural area, and they are already feeling the crunch.
https://www.bradfordtoday.ca/local-news/federal-government-announces-travel-ban-exemptions-for-needed-farm-workers-2187844
Off-topic re the Holland Marsh. I used to live in North York. My most vivid memory of the Holland Marsh is from a September evening southbound on the 400, returning home from volunteering as a marshal at an automobile rally near North Bay, when suddenly the car filled up with the sweet smell of onion. Just so sudden and unexpected. That's a neat area, never did any photography there.
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Off-topic re the Holland Marsh. I used to live in North York. My most vivid memory of the Holland Marsh is from a September evening southbound on the 400, returning home from volunteering as a marshal at an automobile rally near North Bay, when suddenly the car filled up with the sweet smell of onion. Just so sudden and unexpected. That's a neat area, never did any photography there.
They still grow large crops of strong smelling onions and carrots there. But also other vegetables on smaller lots.
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They still grow large crops of strong smelling onions and carrots there. But also other vegetables on smaller lots.
Is that apple store still there on hwy 9, the place that claimed to sell over 20 varieties (or something like that, too long ago now to remember exactly)?
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Here in the Okanagan many of the traditional fruit orchards are being converted over to vineyards to feed the growing wine industry. More money in wine than fruit.
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Here in the Okanagan many of the traditional fruit orchards are being converted over to vineyards to feed the growing wine industry. More money in wine than fruit.
Hardier grape varieties and warmer temperatures means that even Ottawa has two local vineyards now, just south-east of Orleans. There are others near VanKleek and South Mountain. They are all less than 10 years old, I believe. Prince Edward County, south of Belleville, is close to being just one big vineyard. We did a driving vacation a few years ago along the north shore of Lake Erie from Windsor to Niagara and that area is dotted with vineyards along the way, long before you get to Niagara. Niagara used to be a huge fruit growing area, I wonder if that has changed.
Even the townships south of Montreal have a dozen or more wine makers now. There may be other wine-growing regions in Québec, I don't know. Wine, wine everywhere you go.
I maintain that there are more micro-breweries in Ontario than there are beer drinkers. We have (had?) a few restaurants in east Ottawa that only served artisanal beer, they don't carry large brewery brands. And the newest thing (to me) are that several small volume distillers are showing up in small towns in eastern Ontario.
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Is that apple store still there on hwy 9, the place that claimed to sell over 20 varieties (or something like that, too long ago now to remember exactly)?
Yes, there are several stores there. The one on Highway 9, west from 400 is still there, I usually buy there plant seedlings in May.
The other big store is on the east side of 400, first exit north of Highway 9 (shown in the attached picture).
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Yes, there are several stores there. The one on Highway 9, west from 400 is still there, I usually buy there plant seedlings in May.
The other big store is on the east side of 400, first exit north of Highway 9 (shown in the attached picture).
Thanks very much.
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There was an interesting letter to the editor in the weekend Wall Street Journal about "creative destruction," which is what happens during recessions in which efficient business operations survive, and the inefficient die. This supposedly makes even more room for the efficient operations, which then thrive. But this time, the letter-writer said (he's an economist) we're simply getting destruction. Both efficient and inefficient operations are closed by government order, unrelated to the quality of the operation.
I hadn't thought about that, but in thinking about it, the point is clear. It doesn't make any difference how efficient or well-loved your restaurant is, if it's ordered closed, it's closed, and you could go broke. The same with other retail-oriented businesses which depend on actual bodies coming through your store. Further, it seems to me the if the economy is partially re-opened, we're still going to have a problem if the virus is out there floating around. As a 76-year-old, I'll be reluctant to go to any restaurant until I'm immune, either through recovery from an infection, or a vaccine. Even quality operations would have trouble staying open if only half the customers show up. Heck, a lot of them would have trouble staying open if their traffic dropped only ten percent.
This oncoming recession could be a bad one. Not only do people have less money to spend, they might not even go out to spend it if they have it, because of the bug. We desperately need a treatment or a vaccine, and for more reasons than simple survival.
Not just restaurant and retail. Both my wife and I own rather successful businesses that support, develop, or create large scale event and conference content. Our field is literally, just gone. It'll come back, and we're positioned better than most to push through, but there's no amount of better or more efficient work that we could have done to mitigate this.
<shameless local business plug>Also, take the risk and go to Geronimo. That has to survive so I can get back there later this year. :D </shameless plug>
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That's one thing I don't understand why with so many unemployed today, why do we have to rely on foreign labour? Can't we get some of those unemployed back working?
The corporations would have to pay a little extra to use out-of-work Canadians. So your PM is trying to save the corporations money by getting foreigners their work permits.
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There is a new app that shows how long you might wait at grocery stores. Based on the location of the device, it will show various waiting times at the supermarkets, pharmacies and clinics with colour coded points on the map
A map that shows how long you might wait at Toronto grocery stores near you is here to hopefully rescue all of us from hour-plus waits in socially distanced lines.
We now have an open source cookbook, so why not an open source wait time map? The map was created by a web dev who's actually based in Florence through GitHub.
"This project aims to avoid the gatherings of people in various supermarkets and pharmacies during the COVID-19 pandemic," reads the project's GitHub page. "Based on the geolocation of the device, it will show various points of interest such as supermarkets, pharmacies, clinics, bars etc., with an estimate waiting time."
Colour coded points on the map indicate wait times from five minutes (green) up to over an hour (bright red).
https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2020/04/map-wait-times-grocery-stores-toronto/
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I don't want to make a big thing out of this, especially because there have been many cases where union actions were beyond the pale, and I'm thinking primarily about ties to organized crime.
But I have a problem with blaming high union wages for everything. How come greed is good, but suddenly bad when an hourly worker wants more? In the approximately 30 years it took for General Motors to go from No. 1 to oblivion, the bonus-receiving management continued to build cars that no one wanted. But when the end came, the business press blamed the high cost of union pension and health benefits. I never heard one voice suggest that the bonuses paid to the management over that time should be paid back though. Funny, isn't it?
So when things go well, people take the credit and pay themselves well, when things go bad, it's someone else's fault? I don't think so. At every step of the way, that management agreed to all those union demands.
Then Honda and Toyota moved into North America, hired those same people, paid as well as they earned before, and everyone did quite well, not because there were no unions but because people wanted to buy those cars.
Every time a union gets a wage demand that people don't like, just remember that a management team agreed to it. Somehow this gets forgotten for some reason.
I am certain that you can find many egregious examples of union greed. And every time you come up with one, I'm going to point to the 2008 bank bailout. And the handouts to Bombardier. And subsidies to other industries in bad times, as if they weren't supposed to be making their own disaster plans. I'm sorry but blaming the unions is an order of magnitude too facile.
You seem to have forgotten but I haven't. It was Obama who authorized and the US taxpayer in the 2008 recession who bailed out the auto workers union pension fund at GM and Chrysler (but not Ford) to the tune of billions of dollars. It was broke. That was President Obama's payback to the union for their support in the election. So please don't cry for the unions and make it seem like they were some innocent bystanders. To argue management agreed to pensions is a two way street. After all, the union signed also. So both sides are responsible. Yet, the American taxpayer would up paying for their mistakes. Why?
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There was an interesting letter to the editor in the weekend Wall Street Journal about "creative destruction," which is what happens during recessions in which efficient business operations survive, and the inefficient die. This supposedly makes even more room for the efficient operations, which then thrive. But this time, the letter-writer said (he's an economist) we're simply getting destruction. Both efficient and inefficient operations are closed by government order, unrelated to the quality of the operation.
I hadn't thought about that, but in thinking about it, the point is clear. It doesn't make any difference how efficient or well-loved your restaurant is, if it's ordered closed, it's closed, and you could go broke. The same with other retail-oriented businesses which depend on actual bodies coming through your store. Further, it seems to me the if the economy is partially re-opened, we're still going to have a problem if the virus is out there floating around. As a 76-year-old, I'll be reluctant to go to any restaurant until I'm immune, either through recovery from an infection, or a vaccine. Even quality operations would have trouble staying open if only half the customers show up. Heck, a lot of them would have trouble staying open if their traffic dropped only ten percent.
This oncoming recession could be a bad one. Not only do people have less money to spend, they might not even go out to spend it if they have it, because of the bug. We desperately need a treatment or a vaccine, and for more reasons than simple survival.
John That's what I've been posting. Finally glad someone else see what I see.
I read two weeks ago that fully 1/3 of restaurants or 6000, will not re-open in Michigan, I think the state was. Meanwhile, in the US, the government is going to give money to small businesses to keep workers working. For what reason? No one is going to their store. If they are, they they don;t need the money. They'll only put the loan that doesn;t have to be repaid into the business owner's pocket making him richer at taxpayer expense. Stupid.
So there is no creative destruction. It's government picking winners and losers. Workers will be paid to stay away from work or work for losing firms instead of being hired by more successful businesses where they can be more productive. As usual, the government is just making the situation worse. Everytime the government tries to help, everything they touch, they screw things up worse. We never learn.
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Add to it factors such as that there were too many restaurants to start with, they are really not that essential for most people, many restaurants were operating even before with a very small margin, some older restaurant owners will use this situation to retire for good, and many employees will be reluctant to return to their old jobs.
Poor prognosis for restaurants and other businesses in the service industry.
Around here in mid-New Jersey, I would go into a pizza store or bagel place during lunch hour. And there would be a few people buying. I couldn't figure out how they stayed in business. Didn't make sense. Bakeries, Chinese restaurants, barbers, etc. Just too many. Even larger stores. There would be a huge CVS and huge Walgreen pharmacy store right across the street from one another. Then two more a couple of miles away. How much aspirin do people need? How much film are people developing there? You're going to see a huge shakeout when hundred of these stores start closing across the country with thousands of more unemployed.
I think the problem was money was too cheap to borrow and build. Now when they have to pay it back, and stores are closing, they'll be asking the government to step in and bail them out too. And the government will adding to the debt the middle class schnooks will have to pay for with their life's savings.
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Here in the Okanagan many of the traditional fruit orchards are being converted over to vineyards to feed the growing wine industry. More money in wine than fruit.
We'll need all that wine to forget about the recession and the virus.
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We'll need all that wine to forget about the recession and the virus.
I have no problem with the recession...happily retired with enough money to keep me going. Don't owe anyone anything. Medical all taken care of. Grow majority of my own food. Bring it on.
The virus will work its way through...it's just another way of Mother Nature letting us humans know where we stand on the ladder. I'm just glad I won't be around for when climate change rears its ugly head. This virus will seem tame compared to what's coming because we fucked things up.
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With so many established wines around, why do folks want to buy local stuff instead?
Surely it doesn't come down to price - which that said, in Mallorca can work the other way around: some loal stuff is priced much higher than mainland stuff of established name. Strange world, wrapped in mystique and bullshit...
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I have no problem with the recession...happily retired with enough money to keep me going. Don't owe anyone anything. Medical all taken care of. Grow majority of my own food. Bring it on.
The virus will work its way through...it's just another way of Mother Nature letting us humans know where we stand on the ladder. I'm just glad I won't be around for when climate change rears its ugly head. This virus will seem tame compared to what's coming because we fucked things up.
Yep; starvation, bankruptcies, drowned coastal towns, salty drinking water, seas too hot for many fish types to breed or even survive celibate... Desertification is already hitting parts of farming Spain.
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You seem to have forgotten but I haven't. It was Obama who authorized and the US taxpayer in the 2008 recession who bailed out the auto workers union pension fund at GM and Chrysler (but not Ford) to the tune of billions of dollars. It was broke. That was President Obama's payback to the union for their support in the election. So please don't cry for the unions and make it seem like they were some innocent bystanders. To argue management agreed to pensions is a two way street. After all, the union signed also. So both sides are responsible. Yet, the American taxpayer would up paying for their mistakes. Why?
The American auto industries a scam since at least the middle 80s. The deal was pretty explicit -- pay the unsustainable wages, we'll make a cheaper car, the execs get their bonuses, and by the time the shit hits the fan, we'll be retired. What the union leaders and the execs didn't tell the employees was that they made certain assumptions about returns -- say, 8% per year forever, to afford the negotiated pensions -- and when they only got 4% for twenty years, the pension fund was screwed. But the bailout of the auto union funds is nothing compared to when Calpers hits the rocks in a few years.
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They still grow large crops of strong smelling onions and carrots there. But also other vegetables on smaller lots.
Drive through Gilroy California in season and get a whiff of garlic like you have never smelled it before :)
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Drive through Gilroy California in season and get a whiff of garlic like you have never smelled it before :)
How about some lavender or roses?
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The American auto industries a scam since at least the middle 80s. The deal was pretty explicit -- pay the unsustainable wages, we'll make a cheaper car, the execs get their bonuses, and by the time the shit hits the fan, we'll be retired. What the union leaders and the execs didn't tell the employees was that they made certain assumptions about returns -- say, 8% per year forever, to afford the negotiated pensions -- and when they only got 4% for twenty years, the pension fund was screwed. But the bailout of the auto union funds is nothing compared to when Calpers hits the rocks in a few years.
My dad lived for years in California. His neighbor ( both husband and wife ) were retired police. Both retired early and took other jobs. Then retired again. The police pension paid them both more than their base wages at their time of retirement. Seems the gig is to work all the overtime you can in your last three years and then your pension is based on the average of those years. So with SS, police pensions and the pensions they recieved from thier second careers they were making out far better than if they would have been working.
I surely don't fault them for using what was granted to them to the fullest. But geez what were those city mayors and managers thinking?
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US Census Buraau just released an interesting and insightful chart about US consumer spending.
Quite logically, the decline in restaurant segment is almost the same as the increase in grocery shopping.
“The economy is literally in free fall with consumers unable to get out to the shops and malls in March, and about the only retailers smiling are grocery stores with consumers stockpiling food for the coming economic apocalypse,” MUFG Chief Financial Economist Chris Rupkey said in an email Wednesday. “This report today breaks all modern-day records for the consumer who has dealt the economy a body blow from which it will be difficult to recover.”
JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli writing in a note Wednesday, “all the toilet paper in the world can’t clean up this [retail sales] report.”
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US Census Buraau just released an interesting and insightful chart about US consumer spending.
Quite logically, the decline in restaurant segment is almost the same as the increase in grocery shopping.
The main thing to do at home is eat. ::)