Thanks to Peter_DL and AlterEgo for pointing to older threads on this issue. I probably read those in the past, but needed the reminder. I've spent the past few days reviewing those and others, plus expanding, repeating, and reviewing my own tests.
I remain curious why this issue has received so little attention, and even seems to be ignored or considered trivial by the more famous gurus (Schew, Chan, Rodney, etc.). To me, it appears that how you expose a colorchecker is a critical factor.
My tests repeatedly show that higher exposures of the colorchecker generate higher saturation when applied to raw images.
I made fresh exposures of the colorchecker with my Canon 5D3, bracketing so I had LAB-L values off the white patch that ranged in close increments from 81 to 99. The DNG Profile editor rejected the one with a value of 98 and accepted all others. I verified with RawDigger that the 98 version had clipping. It was only 0.3% in the green channels. The 96 version showed no clipping in RawDigger.
So, following Eric Chan's advice, my best exposure - the highest exposure accpeted by the profile editor - would be the 96 version. When I apply that version to a wide variety of real world images I find that sometimes I like it better, sometimes not. The difference depends on whether the image has naturally bright colors or not.
For example, on a dull sky with weark blues, the 96 version is great. Brings out more blue. But on a great sky with strong blues, the 96 version pushes them too far and gives a garish, un-natural look. Ditto for reds. If they start out weak, the 96 version makes them stronger, which is good. But if they start out strong, the 96 version goes too far.
The 96 version often clips some RGB values to 0 within the Adobe98 colorspace. Strong blues have a 0 red channel. Strong reds have a 0 green channel. No problem in ProPhoto, of course.
Another curious observation - my 92 version matches the Adobe Standard profile almost exactly. I'm wondering if that means Adobe created the standard profile from a "middle" exposure of the colorchecker.
Here is a table and graph I made to map the saturation values from some real world images under DNGPE profiles made at various exposures. The blue was from a blue sky, the red from a very red shirt, the green from some grass.
Look at the slopes of those curves. The blues ramp up the most, followed by reds, then greens last.
My "temporary" conclusion: I'm better off using profiles made from a colorchecker exposure with a white patch LAB-L value of 92 to 94. That profile gives good saturation without pushing some values to the edge, and leaving a little wiggle room for other post production adjustments.
I'm at a stage in life where I often shoot a pack of grandkids. Their parents dress them in the American style, which means they are always wearing bright colors. When they show up, I tell my wife to get my sun glasses because the "day-glo" gang is here.
They give me the most difficult color management challenges I face. I usually need to back off the colors. Using a profile that pushes those colors to the max before I can get my hands on them is not a good thing.