Reading through everything here it seems to me that the most likely cause, in my case, is the rollers not pushing the paper through effectively enough. Either they are old and can't anymore (the printer is nearly 3 years old, regular, but mild usage) or the surface of the paper itself is causing them to lose grip. Or both.
Some thoughts and tests:
I'm only getting short prints, not long prints.
The percentage difference is the same on 40cm prints as on 130cm prints - so the weight of a hanging print seems to make no difference. I expect this would make prints longer than expected anyway.
I tested it on a cut sheet of German Etching, same print settings (VFA) as previous jobs: print was ca 0.25% LONGER than expected. 370mm sent, 370.9mm printed
I then ran the same test using Epson Cold Press as the setting in the driver, changing nothing else: print was dead accurate, as far as I can measure
Then I thought that moving the paper in smaller increments might affect things, so I tested again using the VFA settings, but changed the print quality to level 5: same as first test, longer than expected.
Clearly roll and sheet behaviour is different, so I have to test things on the roll again as this is how I do all my German Etching prints. I'm using the hahnemuehle canned profile so I have to stick with VFA, level 4 as my media setting.
Maybe the back-tension is too much, resisting the feed rollers. Can't reduce it, but can INCREASE it to see if that has an effect.
maybe the suction bed is too strong, resisting the feed rollers. Can decrease it, but risk head strikes if I reduce it too much and the paper lifts off the bed.
hmm
gotta actually do some work today, will test these next time I have a chance.